The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 10 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (3-10); Straight Up (6-7)
Season: Vs. Spread (60-67-1); Straight Up (82-46)

Week 9 Review: Back to back horrible weeks for me. This was my worst week of the season, particularly in the straight up department where I actually had a losing record. Embarrassing; but I know a lot of people had it tough last week.

Week 10 Preview: This is a hard week to pick in my opinion. And after the last couple of weeks my confidence is totally shot. On the positive side, the holiday season must be near because the early week games are starting up.

Thursday’s Game

Chicago (+3) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: The first Thursday nighter since the season opener is a matchup of a pair of mystery teams. After a 3-1 start that included wins over the Steelers and in Seattle, the Bears have lost 3 of 4, including blowout losses at Cinci and to the Cards at home. The Niners opened the season with a win over the defending NFC Champs on the road and followed that up by beating the Seahawks. After a heartbreaking loss at Minnesota, the Niners whipped the Rams to move to 3-1. Since then they have lost 4 straight. They lost by 3 on the road against Houston and by 4 at Indy but then last week they lost by 10 at home to the Titans. Anything could happen in this game. I’ll take the Niners to win because they are at home and because I hate the Bears.

Sunday’s Early Games

Atlanta (-1) @ Carolina
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: This game scares me, but as a true Falcons fan that’s nothing unusual. The Falcons won by 8 earlier in the year but that was at home. The Panthers were left for dead by most after an 0-3 start but they have sustained life by winning 3 of 5 since. If you look at their season so far, they have 1 bad loss and 1 solid win. Losses to the Eagles, at Atlanta, at Dallas, and at New Orleans are all understandable. The loss at home to the Bills is the one that hurts. Wins over Washington and Tampa mean little but the blowout of the Cards in the desert was impressive. The Falcons have won 5 of 8 games this year but it hasn’t been pretty. They need to keep winning. I hope they do.

Tampa Bay (+10) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins cover
Comment: How did the Bucs win by 10 at Green Bay last week? I was totally convinced that the Bucs were headed for an 0-16 season. The Dolphins are not any good and yet they continue to be competitive. Tampa is horrible and I think it’ll be back to losing by double digits for them this weekend.

Detroit (+16.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: Perhaps the best team in the league hosting perhaps the worst team in the league. It should be a complete mismatch. But this is still the NFL, even if the gap between the top and the bottom is wider than usual this season. I like the Vikings to win by at least 20.

Jacksonville (+7) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: The Jags have got to be one of the weakest 4-4 teams of all-time. The Jets should come off of the bye and win by double digits at home.

Cincinnati (+7) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Bengals beat the spread
Comment: I’m definitely a believer in the Bengals but the Steelers seem to have found their stride. I don’t see Cinci winning in Pittsburgh and I don’t see them sweeping the Steelers. It should be close but I like Pittsburgh to win in the end.

New Orleans (-13.5) @ St. Louis
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: The Saints have been living dangerously in recent weeks but they could play their worst game of the year and still beat the Rams by 2 TD’s.

Buffalo (+6.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Bills beat the spread
Comment: This is one of the hardest games to predict this week in my opinion. The Titans have won 2 straight but they were awful earlier in the year and Vince Young is liable to implode at any time. The Bills have been a different team from week to week. They opened the season by essentially winning on the road at New England. I mean, I would say that their loss in the opener to the Patriots was flukier than Cinci’s loss in the opener against Denver. After losing by 28 in Miami and losing to the Browns 6-3 at home, the Bills went on the road and beat the Jets and Panthers. In their last game they were whipped by the Texans at home. Now they are coming off of a bye and who knows how they’ll play against the Titans. I think they’ll keep it close but I’ll take the Titans to win because I think they are the better team and they are at home.

Denver (-3.5) @ Washington
Pick: Broncos cover
Comment: I don’t care what anyone says, nobody knows how good the Broncos are at this point. Washington shouldn’t be that bad but they are and they are banged up on top of everything else. I like the Broncos to stop the losing skid at 2 games.

Sunday’s Late Games

Kansas City (+1) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders cover
Comment: I can’t believe I’m taking the Raiders to cover as a favorite but I’ve got little recourse because it’s a 1-point spread and they’re playing the Chiefs in Oakland. These teams are both awful. Oakland won in KC earlier this year so they should be able to win at home. And we all know that sort of logic has no place in the arena of sports betting.

Seattle (+9) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover
Comment: I’ve got no idea whether or not the Cardinals feel like winning this game but if they do they should win by double digits.

Dallas (-3) @ Green Bay
Pick: Cowboys cover
Comment: I would have doubted whether or not the Cowboys could keep it going this week on the road if Tampa hadn’t won by 10 at Lambeau last week. It’s interesting to compare these two franchises at this point in time. Everyone assumes that Jerra, Mumbling Wade, Romo and crew have no idea what they are doing, and they give off the impression that they feel the same way. Mike McCarthy, Ted Thompson, and Aaron Rogers act as if they know exactly what they are doing and people seem to accept it whole heartedly. I’m wondering if maybe things aren’t just the opposite. Maybe the Cowboys are getting it right, staying away from the flashy, expensive names, and resisting the temptation to bring in another head coach. I’m more certain about the situation in Green Bay. I think McCarthy and Thompson should be taken to the middle of Lake Superior the next time the Witch of November comes crashing and both be set adrift, together, hand in handcuffed hand.

Philadelphia (+1) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers cover
Comment: Yet another matchup of teams you can’t count on or count out from week to week. I’ll take the Chargers because they’re at home and they have more momentum.

Sunday Night’s Game

New England (+3) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Patriots beat the spread
Comment: I’m hedging here. My theory on these two giants of the sport is that neither is as good as they have been in the past but they keep on winning because that’s what they do. It could go either way. Hopefully it will be another classic.

Monday Night’s Game

Baltimore (-11) @ Cleveland
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: While I think people went a bit overboard in their praise of the Ravens during their 3 game losing streak, I do think they are a legitimately good team. That said, they’ve got a lot of work to do if they’re going to get into the playoffs. At 4-4, the Ravens are 2 games back of the Steelers and Bengals in the AFC North. They’re really 3 games back of the Bengals because Cinci owns a 2-game sweep over them. The Ravens still have to play Pittsburgh twice, they have to play the Colts, and they have to go to Green Bay in December. They basically can’t afford any slipups against weaker competition the rest of the season. They should be playing with a sense of desperation come Monday night in Cleveland. The Browns are a mess and the Ravens should win by at least 2 TD’s.