The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 11 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (7-8); Straight Up (9-6)
Season: Vs. Spread (67-75-1); Straight Up (91-52)

Week 10 Review: A better weak---slip---week for me but still under .500 ATS.

Week 11 Preview: Finally the bye weeks are over and we get a full slate of games to pick.

Thursday’s Game

Miami (+3) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers cover
Comment: The Panthers are on a bit of a roll. They are at home and Miami is without Ronnie Brown. Carolina began the year 1-5 ATS but they’ve beaten the spread in their last 3 games. This will be a short week for both teams. The Dolphins are coming off of an unimpressive 2 point win over the Bucs at home. You never know with the Dolphins but I feel better taking the Panthers to win. It’s a field goal spread so I’ll just take Carolina to cover.

Sunday’s Early Games

Indianapolis (+1) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: This might sound incredibly stupid but I just don’t think the Colts are as good as their 9-0 record indicates. They’ve had some impressive performances and they’ve done this sort of thing many times before but I get the feeling they’ve got a loss coming. Just think about some of their wins. They beat a weak Jacksonville team (ignore the 5-4 record) by 2 at home; they won by 4 on the road against a weak Miami team; they beat a weak Seattle team at home; they won on the road against a Tennessee team that started 0-6 and would lose 59-0 the very next week; they crushed a horrible St. Louis team on the road; they won by 4 at home over a decent (at best) Niner team; they beat a solid Houston team by 3 at home; and they escaped with a 1-point victory over the Pats at home last week. You can’t control the teams you play but it’s not like they’re blowing everybody out either. The Ravens have 4 losses but they’ve played a much harder schedule and they’re 9-3 at home over the last 2 seasons. I think Indy’s undefeated season ends this Sunday.

Washington (+11) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Redskins beat the spread
Comment: Just when it looked like the Cowboys might actually be better than expected they played an awful game against a reeling Green Bay team. Washington upset the Broncos last week and they shouldn’t be as bad as they have looked most of this season. I like the Cowboys to take care of business but I think the Skins can stay within 10.

Cleveland (+3.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Lions cover
Comment: A couple of terrible teams. I got burned by the Lions a few weeks ago when I picked them to cover at home against the Lams and they lost by 7. But how can you possible bet on the Browns after what they did on Monday night?

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers win but Niners beat the spread
Comment: I don’t think there’s much of a difference between these two teams. The Packers are at home so I’ll take them to win but I don’t think the home field is worth 7 points.

Buffalo (+9) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags win but Bills beat the spread
Comment: This was one of the hardest games for me to pick because the Bills have looked so awful recently. They’ve finally gotten rid of Dick Jauron but all that does is give them a head start on finding his replacement. I still maintain that the Jags are one of the worst 5-4 teams in recent memory. I’ll take the Jags to win at home but by 8 or less.

Pittsburgh (-10) @ Kansas City
Pick: Steelers win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: This game was also tough for me to pick. Obviously I like the Steelers to win but I’m not sure they’ll win by more than 10 on the road without Troy Polamalu. Of course, the Chiefs won’t have Dwayne Bowe either. But KC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, while the Steelers are just 3-6 ATS all season. I’m not real confident on this one but I think the Chiefs can stay within single digits.

Seattle (+10.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: I like the Vikings at home against any team in the NFL right now and I don’t like the Seahawks on the road at all. Minnesota should win by at least 2 TD’s.

Atlanta (+6.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover
Comment: I’m not positive but my guess would be that both Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood will miss this game. With the way Matt Ryan has played lately it will be hard to stay within a TD on the road against a desperate Giants team coming off of a bye.

New Orleans (-11.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: The Saints have been faltering a bit—failing to cover in each of their last 3 games and winning by just 5 against the Rams last week—and I know the Bucs have been less awful lately—winning by 10 against Green Bay two weeks ago and losing by just 2 at Miami last week. Still, I think the Saints should be able to win this by a couple of TD’s.

Sunday’s Late Games

Arizona (-9.5) @ St. Louis
Pick: Cardinals cover
Comment: This could be a dangerous game. The Rams are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and the Cardinals always seem to come up with a surprising loss just as you’ve started to forget about the last time. But Arizona is a surprising 4-0 on the road this season and 6-3 ATS this year. I think the Cards should win by double digits.

San Diego (-2.5) @ Denver
Pick: Chargers cover
Comment: Covers.com still didn’t have a line up for this one and it took me a while to find any sort of line for this one. It’s kind of important in this case because if the line was 6 or something like that I’d probably take the Broncos to beat the spread but regardless of whether or not Kyle Orton plays I still like San Diego to win. I was late jumping on the Denver bandwagon and I’m probably late jumping off. They’ve lost 3 straight, while the Chargers have won 4 in a row. I like the Chargers to win a close game by at least a field goal or so.

New York Jets (+10) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Jets beat the spread
Comment: New York has lost 5 of 6 after starting the season 3-0 but their only loss by more than 5 points this season was a 14 point loss in New Orleans. Their other 4 losses have come by a combined 14 points, including 1 loss in OT. The Pats will be trying to shake off the heartbreaker in Indy last Sunday night. I think New England will win fairly easily but not by double digits.

Cincinnati (-9.5) @ Oakland
Pick: Bengals cover
Comment: Betting for or against the Raiders is always tricky because you never know whether they are going to show up or not. Cinci is coming off of a huge win at Pittsburgh and they will most likely be without Cedric Benson. A trip to Oakland has been a trap for some teams but I think Cinci can win by double digits with or without Benson.

Sunday Night’s Game

Philadelphia (-3) @ Chicago
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: Brian Westbrook may not play but the combination of his constant injury problems and Andy Reid’s inability to maximize his skills has made him a non-factor much of the time anyway. The Bears will be well rested and at home but they’re just not any good.

Monday Night’s Game

Tennessee (+4.5) @ Houston
Pick: Texans cover
Comment: I never thought the Titans were anything close to as bad as they looked through their first 6 games but they dug too deep of a hole. They can’t win every week. Houston has been tough to beat at home in recent years and Vince Young is due to cost Tennessee a game. I like the Texans to win by a TD.