The College Football Blog: 2009 Power Rankings (After Week 10)

Power Rankings after Week 10

1. Florida 9-0 (1st)
2. Alabama 9-0 (2nd)
3. Texas 9-0 (3rd)
4. LSU 7-2 (4th)
5. TCU 9-0 (6th)
6. Georgia Tech 9-1 (5th)
7. Oregon 7-2 (7th)
8. USC 7-2 (8th)
9. Cincinnati 9-0 (10th)
10. Boise State 9-0 (11th)
11. Ohio State 8-2 (14th)
12. Arizona 6-2 (NR)
13. Iowa 9-1 (12th)
14. Oklahoma 6-4 (9th)
15. Penn State 8-2 (13th)

Out: Notre Dame (15th).

Comments: Things had been going along monotonously for a few weeks and then all of the sudden there were a lot of surprises last week. A lot of surprises and few impressive wins. Once again the biggest thing I learned was how little I know and how poor a system for determining anything meaningful this is. One thing that I try to keep in mind (and that might help you understand the logic behind my rankings) is that these rankings are based on a matchup that would take place outside of the week to week roller coaster of the season. These aren’t the rankings of which team is hottest or playing the best right now. Nor are these the rankings of which team has had the most impressive season so far. One of the main reasons that this system is flawed is that it’s so hard to determine how big of a role things like injuries, scheduling, and location have. If Oregon had had a week off separating their huge win over USC and their tough road game against Stanford would the outcome have been any different? Would the outcome have been different if Stanford had not had a week off before their game against Oregon? Are the struggles of teams like Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, and Boise State indicative of flaws in these teams or mental/physical fatigue from having to go out and prove something every week against teams with nothing to lose who could make their season by knocking one of these teams off? There’s no definitive answer to these questions and that’s why these rankings are a lot about gut feeling.

Top 3: My top 3 stayed the same this week and the only thing I feel really certain about is that Florida, Alabama, and Texas are the 3 strongest teams in the country (or the 3 best prepared to cover up their flaws).

4-10: After the big 3, the next 7 teams in the top 10 are all very talented teams capable of beating anyone. They are all also flawed to some extent. The one exception to this is the #5 team, TCU. These guys have been destroying the competition but I really don’t know much about them. All I know is that they have a dominant defense, they have met every challenge they’ve faced, and they have demolished opponents. LSU is not really great at anything but they are hard to beat. My view of them didn’t really change at all following their loss at Bama. They were a questionable call away from stealing that game. I’ve become a believer in Georgia Tech’s legitimacy but there were some troubling signs in the Wake Forrest game. Tech has been able to overcome their own mistakes but turnovers, a lack of a true passing game, and a questionable defense could do them in against an elite team. Oregon ran into a buzz saw on the road at Stanford but because of some of the reasons stated above, I didn’t drop them in my rankings. USC struggled on the road again last week and Cincinnati struggled to hold off UConn at home. Boise State could not put away Louisiana Tech and the Broncos seem to be having a hard time dealing with the pressure to play a perfect game when they have a chance to show everyone how good they are. And while Boise State clearly has more talent than anyone else in the WAC, I don’t think they have the talent of the top teams in the big conferences.

The Last 5: After the top ten it’s basically up for grabs. Ohio State has gotten things going recently and they dominated Penn State on the road last week. They have an inconsistent QB and offense but they’re still a great defensive team. I don’t know much about Arizona but they are 6-2 and really should be 7-1 (an INT off a receivers foot returned for a TD stole a win from them at Washington). They have played well on the road, unlike a lot of others teams in the country. I still think Iowa is very solid when healthy and they would have beaten Northwestern had their QB not been lost for the game in the 1st half. Yes, I know that their starting QB isn’t great or even very good, but the drop off from Ricky Stanzi to the backup was huge. Their offense was handcuffed by injuries to the offensive line and backfield already. Without Stanzi they were virtually paralyzed. My final 2 teams may seem to have no business in anyone’s top 15. Oklahoma has now lost 4 games and they just lost to a Nebraska team which lost to Iowa State. But if any team in the country has been crippled by injuries it’s Oklahoma. Now, the biggest injuries are season ending ones, and thus I consider those players lost forever when making up these rosters. But I would still take Oklahoma’s defense and talent and coaching over most other teams in a game on a neutral field 2 weeks from now if all the non-season ending injuries were healed. Penn State has been soundly beaten in their two biggest games this year, both at home. But at this point you could swap PSU with about 20 other teams and there would be little difference. I like Penn State over most of these other teams because of their defense and because they’ve been very consistent.