Thursday, October 29, 2009

The NBA Blog: Team and Division Rankings and Previews

Division Rankings

 

1. Northwest: None of the big 4 teams (Boston, LA Lakers, Cleveland, San Antonio) are in the Northwest but 3 of my top 9 teams are. Portland, Denver, and Utah should all win over 50 games. I think Oklahoma City is building something special. I expect the Thunder to be one of the most improved teams this season as far as win-loss record. The T-Wolves are very weak but I think they’ll be contenders in a few years. I think they’ll be better this season even if their record doesn’t show it.

 

2. Southeast: This would be argued by many folks and laughed at by some. There is no super team in this division but there is no really bad team either. The Magic are one of the better teams in the Association and the Hawks are steadily improving each season. Washington should be the most improved team in the NBA this year now that they are healthy. Miami is a decent team as long as D-Wade is healthy. And in spite of incompetent ownership and upper management, the Bobcats are not bad. I have all 5 teams in this division ranked among the top 20 teams.

 

3. Southwest: The mighty Southwest will fall down a few notches this year with the Rockets ravaged by injuries. Still, the Spurs, Mavs, and Hornets should all win at least 50 games and they are all ranked among my top 11 teams in the NBA. At the bottom of the division, Memphis is dreadful. The Grizzlies definitely bring this division down.

 

4. Central: This division has one super team (Cavs); one very good team (Bulls); one mediocre team (Pistons); and two weak but not horrible teams (Bucks and Pacers). This division isn’t as tough as it was a few years ago due to the fact that the Pistons are no longer one of the powerhouse teams in the NBA.

 

5. Atlantic: The Celtics are the best team in the East and my 2nd ranked team in the Association but no other team in the Atlantic is even a shoe-in to finish with a winning record. The Sixers should be pretty good and the Raptors should be improved and could even be good. But the Nets and Knicks have no hope for this season.

 

6. Pacific: The best team in the entire NBA presides in this division but that doesn’t keep the Pacific from being the weakest division. The Suns are the only other decent team in the Pacific and they are easily the weakest of the 8 Western Conference playoff teams in my opinion. Golden State is a bunch of thugs who throw up 3-pointers and don’t play any defense. The Clippers have some decent talent but they are cursed and they are coached by a moron. The Sacramento Kings are the worst team in the NBA in my opinion. I believe the Pacific has 2 of the 3 worst teams in the NBA in Sacramento and LAC.

 

Team Reports and Rankings

 

(1) Los Angeles Lakers: On paper, the defending champs figure to be even better. They lost Trevor Ariza but gained an excellent defensive player in Ron Artest who can also rebound and score and bring intimidation and muscle. Lamar Odom appears content. Andrew Bynum should reach another level this year. On the other hand, there’s that thing in the back of your mind that worries you about the Ron Artest situation. Comparisons have been made to Dennis Rodman joining Jordan, Pippen, Phil and the Bulls for the second 3-peat. While the comparison is reasonable, there are some major differences in my opinion. For one thing, Rodman’s crazy and Artest’s crazy are two very different things. To a certain extent Rodman’s crazy was a show, a semi-controlled madness. I don’t believe there is much act in Artest; he’s just crazy and he can’t control it. Rodman knew he could get away with a certain amount of bad behavior because the Bulls were that good and it was all mostly harmless. If Dennis bumped an official or picked up one too many techs and got suspended for a few games it wasn’t the end of the world for a team that had no peers and was going to roll to 60, 65, 70 wins. He wouldn’t have done something in the conference finals or NBA Finals that would jeopardize the ultimate goal of winning the championship. Artest, on the other hand, could easily blow a fuse at the worst time and his episodes tend to not be so harmless. This is important but there are a couple other key differences. For Rodman, playing the bad boy and the loose canon was all a part of his game. It helped him to constantly play all out, it intimidated opponents, and it frustrated opponents into making mistakes. Certainly this is true for Artest as well but Artest’s actions seem to distract and disrupt his teammates much more than was the case with Dennis. There’s no doubt that Rodman’s teammates (at least in the championship years) liked him. I don’t know that the Laker players are going to like playing with Artest. Also, in the Chicago situation there was a point where Phil or Michael could rein Rodman in. I don’t think Artest is smart enough to have that sort of respect for Jackson or Kobe. Furthermore, I don’t think Kobe will be able to handle Artest’s antics as well as Jordan handled Rodman’s. Finally—and this is perhaps most important of all—while Artest can be an asset offensively in a way that Rodman never was, he can also have a negative impact on his team’s offense in a way that Rodman never did. Dennis was not going to go for 25 points on a night when the other scorers were struggling. But he also never dribbled the ball up the court and repeatedly jacked up 3-pointers. It’s important to note that the fact that I’m discussing Artest this much shows how much of a given everything else is. If Artest can change his behavior and his game to fit in with the rest of the team then he will be a huge asset in the playoffs. If Artest is not a negative and is instead the asset that we know he can be then the Lakers will repeat. They may not have as dominant a regular season coming off of a championship run but they will end up winning a second straight title.

 

(2) Boston Celtics: The Celtics are going to win 55 games or so even if they have to deal with injuries again. If they are healthy for the playoffs they should reach the finals. If Garnett had been healthy last year they would have reached the finals again and this year they have Rasheed Wallace, a shrewd pickup by Danny Ainge and co. When healthy they are the best team in the East.

 

(3) San Antonio Spurs: Like the Celtics, health is the key for San Antonio. When Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker are all healthy the Spurs can challenge the Lakers in the West. They made tremendous moves in the off-season, adding Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess and drafting DeJuan Blair. If they can get healthy by playoff time they will be hard to beat.

 

(4) Cleveland Cavilers: Like the other major powers, the Cavs made some huge off-season additions, acquiring Shaq, Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, and Leon Powe while losing virtually nothing. But while Shaq should certainly pay dividends come playoff time, I don’t see the Cavs rolling through the regular season they way they did last season. For one thing, it’s just going to be hard for the team to be motivated to win 60 games after they won 66 games last year and couldn’t even force #3 seed Orlando to a 7th game in the conference finals. The happy-go-lucky, childlike, fun atmosphere that surrounded the Cavs last season is unlikely to return this year. They could win 70 games and it wouldn’t mean a thing. All thoughts will be on the playoffs and whether or not they can get over the hump this time. And then there is the situation with Delonte West. He was a key member of last year’s team and at this point his mental stability is in serious doubt. Finally, while Shaq and Powe will bring much needed muscle in the playoffs, they still need other offensive weapons to help LeBron. They need shooters. And even if Shaq’s presence is enough to get past a potential matchup with Orlando in the playoffs I still don’t think it gets them past Boston.

 

(5) Portland Trailblazers: When you think about it, it’s pretty amazing that a guy who was expected to be a franchise altering big man has basically been a complete bust, and yet the Blazers are one of the best teams in the NBA and only getting better. The addition of Andre Miller could end up being the biggest move in an off-season full of block busters.  

 

(6) Denver Nuggets: When the Nuggets traded Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups they caught lightening in a bottle and became a legitimate contender for the first time. Now you just have to wonder if the magic will be there again this year.

 

(7) Dallas Mavericks: You have to give Mark Cuban and the Mavs credit: they absolutely refuse to let the window close. Adding Shawn Marion to the nucleus of Dirk, Kidd, Josh Howard and Jason Terry should have the Mavs contending in the West again.

 

(8) Orlando Magic: I’ll be honest; I do not like the changes Orlando made following their run to the NBA Finals, largely in response to the departure of Hedo Turkoglu. Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes are decent players but will Orlando be the same dangerous offensive force without Hedo, Courtney Lee, and Rafer Alston? And tell me this: when has Vince Carter ever been a part of a seriously successful team? How is Carter going to jive with Stan Van’s coaching style? These are major question marks. The best thing Orlando has going for them is Dwight Howard, who is my pick to win the MVP this season.

 

(9) Utah Jazz: The Jazz have held everyone together for one more season and if they are healthy they should be one of the better teams in the West as usual. But there’s no reason to think they will get any further in the playoffs than they have over the last few years.

 

(10) Atlanta Hawks: It’s been a long process but the Hawks have steadily gotten better from year to year and they can finally be considered a legitimately good team at this point. For the first time in this decade the Hawks have enough depth to compete with great teams. They should continue to get better as their young players continue to develop. The only thing holding the Hawks back is this: in the NBA, in order to win a title, or even seriously contend for a title, you must have one of the greatest players in the game. The Hawks do not have such a player and thus they have a ceiling that is almost impossible to ignore. How can they ever get past Orlando, Cleveland, or Boston if they don’t have anyone like a Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce?

 

(11) New Orleans Hornets: Despite financial problems, the Hornets should still have enough to be one of the better teams in the West. Perhaps Emeka Okafor will even be an improvement over Tyson Chandler. Either way, when you have Chris Paul you don’t need all that much else to be really good.

 

(12) Chicago Bulls: The Bulls showed us what they could do against the C’s in the playoffs. They lost Ben Gordon but that’s not the end of the world. They just have to find a way to carry the momentum from that playoff loss over to the regular season. It sounds crazy but the Hawks carried momentum from a playoff loss to the Celtics over into last season. Chicago can do the same sort of thing this year. They have a budding star in Derek Rose.

 

(13) Phoenix Suns: The Suns have just enough left from those great D’Antoni teams to make it to the postseason but Nash and Stoudemire won’t be enough to do anything in the playoffs.

 

(14) Washington Wizards: The Wizards are a trendy “pick to click” now that they are finally healthy. Flip Saunders has been installed as head coach and a few additions have been made to the roster. We’ll see if they can stay healthy. Even if everything goes right I don’t see them doing anything in the playoffs.

 

(15) Philadelphia 76ers: There is still a ton of talent on this roster if they could ever get healthy and start to gel.

 

(16) Toronto Raptors: Like Washington, the Raptors should improve their win total significantly and possibly reach the playoffs but they aren’t a serious threat in the East.

 

(17) Miami Heat: Miami has one thing: Dwayne Wade. Now, that’s an awful lot, but even D Wade needs some help in order to make the Heat a legitimate threat. They could finish with a winning record but 50 wins seems like a major stretch.

 

(18) Detroit Pistons: Detroit has reshaped things a bit with Villanueva and Gordon coming to D-town, Ben Wallace returning, and now Rasheed gone to Boston. I still don’t think the roster is well configured and they are starting over with a new coach. It’s possible they could have a winning season but they are no longer legitimate contenders.

 

(19) Oklahoma City Thunder: OKC is one of the real up and coming teams in the NBA in my opinion. Durant is a future hall of famer. I think the Thunder will be vastly improved this year and be trouble for many opponents.

 

(20) Charlotte Bobcats: Larry Brown hasn’t gotten much help from ownership and the front office and he could quit on the team at any moment. But the Bobcats are decent.

 

(21) Golden State Warriors: This might be my single least favorite team in the NBA. These guys are thugs who don’t get it. Their coach is hard to take seriously and they have zero leadership on the court.

 

(22) Houston Rockets: You have to feel for the Houston Rockets organization and their fans. They have some true professionals on that roster and they will surely fight hard every night to be competitive but without their franchise players the Rockets are going to struggle to play .500 basketball.  

 

(23) Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks don’t seem to have any immediate plans. They must think they can make it big in next year’s huge off-season but who wants to go to Milwaukee?

 

(24) New York Knicks: D’Antoni has yet to make the Knicks respectable. Like the Bucks, they seem to be waiting for next summer.  

 

(25) Indiana Pacers: The good news is that the Pacers may finally be thinking about wins and losses and not just about changing their image and being appealing to Hoosiers. The bad news is that they play no defense.

 

(26) New Jersey Nets: The Nets are just like the Bucks and Knicks. They’ve got nothing going for them this season and they’re hoping to make it big next summer.

 

(27) Minnesota Timberwolves: I think the T-Wolves will be improved but they still have a long way to go.

 

(28) Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers suffered a terrible blow when Blake Griffin injured his knee in the final preseason game on a play during which he wasn’t touched. That’s not a good sign but I’m still picking Griffin to win Rookie of the Year because he should be back for at least the entire second half and there’s nobody else to pick.

 

(29) Memphis Grizzlies: If Allen Iverson ever makes it onto the court for the Grizzlies he will not help lead them to many victories. In fact, he’ll merely slow down any growth that their young players might have had this year. Iverson may not even care at this point but he may end up being the leading scorer on a team that doesn’t win 20 games.

 

(30) Sacramento Kings: Once again the Kings should be the worst team in the NBA by a wide margin and I wonder if they will survive in Sac Town if this goes on much longer.

 

 

 

 

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