Thursday, October 1, 2009

The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 5 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (3-7); Moneyline Upsets (1-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (16-24); Moneyline Upsets (4-4)

Week 4 Review: Consecutive 3-7 weeks have my season quickly descending towards awful. Last week I had a number of bad picks, including Cal -5.5 (they lost 42-3); Mia -3 (they lost 31-7); and Illinois +14 (they lost 30-0). For a 4th consecutive week I was 1-1 on moneyline upsets.

Week 5 Preview: This is the first mediocre week of the season, with a number of teams idle, and there is a major shortage of exciting matchups. That actually might work out well for me because so far I’ve been much worse picking ATS in these big games than I have been picking the less high profile games.

Thursday

Game 1: Colorado (+16.5) @ West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia covers
Comment: Last year WV lost in OT, 17-14, at Colorado in September for their first 2 game losing streak since the final 2 games of the 04 season. The Mountaineers are tough to beat at home and Colorado has already lost twice to teams from non-BCS conferences this season. Both teams are coming off of a bye but the Buffs will have to travel cross country. WVU is only 5-9 ATS under Bill Stewart; 3-4 ATS at home. But Colorado is 5-10 ATS in their last 15 road contests. West Virginia looked to have Auburn beaten on the road before a few somewhat fluky plays did them in. I think they will roll over Colorado. 16.5 is a big spread, but Toledo beat Colorado by 16 so it’s not as big as you think.

Saturday

Game 2: Michigan (+2.5) @ Michigan State
Pick: Michigan beats the spread
Comment: Michigan has been very fortunate so far this season while Michigan Sate has been extremely unlucky. On one hand it seems like lucks due to change for both sides. By I actually expect luck to stay the same for both teams. Michigan had won 6 straight before losing to MSU last year and they’ve won 3 in a row in Lansing. I like Michigan to be outplayed by Sparta much of the game before coming back and winning by a field goal late.

Game 3: LSU (+3) @ Georgia
Pick: Georgia covers
Comment: I usually try to stay away from the Georgia game on my Horsecollar picks because I know there’s always a chance that I’ll make a pick which isn’t completely object. But I pick against teams like Tech and ND and other squads that I hate all the time. Plus, there just aren’t enough good games this week to exclude LSU @ UGA. LSU had chances to put the game away against Miss State last week but they didn’t and all of the sudden they needed a miracle to avoid a stunning loss. They got said miracle and they could easily come back and bring their A-game this week. Maybe they were looking past Miss State. Maybe they’ll be looking past the Dawgs to their game with Florida this week. They are 20-6 in non-home games under Les Miles. They have been road underdogs in 4 games under Miles and they are 1-3 ATS in those games. The Dawgs are just 5-10-1 ATS over the last 2 years but LSU is only 4-12 ATS over the last 2 years. Georgia still has not put together a complete game this season; one in which they kept from killing themselves with all sorts of unforced errors. I’m going with Georgia to win and it’s a FG spread so I’ll take them to cover at home.

Game 4: Arkansas (-1) @ Texas A&M
Pick: Arkansas covers
Comment: I think this is a very interesting but very hard to call game. It should say a lot about where each program is on their rebuilding process. The fact that it’ll be played in Arlington add another element. My first reaction was that A&M would probably win. The game is in Texas after all. But for some reason I have a feeling Arkansas will get a win in this one. This will be the 66th meeting between the two teams but the first since 1991.

Game 5: Auburn (+2.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Auburn beats the spread
Comment: We haven’t seen Auburn play on the road yet and they’ve really only played 1 better than decent team this season. They were just 1-4 on the road last year and 0-5 ATS. However, we’ve seen Tennessee lose at home already this season. I’m not sure yet how good Auburn is; I know the Vols aren’t any good. I like the Tigers to win their 5th straight on the season and their 5th straight in this series.

Game 6: Oklahoma (-7) @ Miami
Pick: Miami beats the spread
Comment: Everybody jumped on and now everybody jumped off. It wasn’t that surprising to see Miami fall to VT on the road last week. I have to think that the miserable weather played a serious role. Both these teams have a loss already this year and I have given both of them a bit of a pass, as Oklahoma lost their QB at halftime against BYU, and Miami played VT in a monsoon. With or without Sam Bradford I expect Oklahoma to win coming in off of a bye and a pair of games against weak opponents. They’ve given up only 14 points in 3 games all year. Oklahoma is 12-4 the last 2 years against the spread. They were 5-0 ATS in true road games last season. Miami is banged up too but I have enough regard for them to think they will stay within a TD. This is a gigantic game for both teams.

Game 7: Penn State (-7) @ Illinois
Pick: Penn State covers
Comment: I know Penn State appears overrated this season and they just lost at home to Iowa by 11 points. But Illinois may have been the most disappointing team in all of the FBS over the season’s first month. They were expected to rebound this year from last year’s 5-7 record but they were soundly whipped by a rebuilding Missouri squad in St. Louis in the opener, and last week they were shutout 30-0 by the Buckeyes. Illinois is just 3-13 vs. PSU. The only time PSU lost back to back games over the last 5 seasons was in 2007 when they followed up a loss at Michigan with a loss at Illinois. I don’t see it happening this time, as Illinois blows, and PSU should be able to put plenty of points up on their porous defense.

Game 8: UCLA (+5) @ Stanford
Pick: Stanford covers
Comment: This is a tough one for me. Stanford’s been solid, particularly at home, and UCLA isn’t the most consistent team in the land. I’ve gone back and forth on this one. UCLA is coming off of a bye and they’ve 3-0. But Stanford is 3-1; they are 7-1 at home since the final game of the 07 season; and they are 8-0 ATS at home over that time.

Game 9: Air Force (+3) @ Navy
Pick: Navy covers
Comment: I think Air Force could win this one but Navy’s been pretty dominant against the other academies lately. Navy has won 6 straight over AF. They’ve gone 14-4 against service academy teams this decade. But get this: they are 15-3 ATS vs. service academy teams this decade. Hello!

Game 10: Washington (+12.5) @ Notre Dame
Pick: Washington beats the spread
Comment: Notre Dame’s D-Bag QB is dealing with a toe injury. It sounds inconsequential but more and more it’s starting to seem like it’s not just a stubbed toe. He missed part of last week’s game and ND again lucked out and in the closing minutes to beat Purdue. They’re at home this week but Washington is a better opponent than Purdue or Mich State. ND is 11-17 ATS at home against Charlie Weiss. They did not win 3 consecutive games in either of the previous 2 seasons. Washington has lost 10 straight on the road and is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road. But I think they’ll hang around in this one.

Moneyline Special

Cal over USC: Cal is a 5 point dog at home against the mighty Trojans this Saturday. I know Cal just got demolished by an average Oregon team but I’ve got to think they’ve got something more than that. USC lost another player this week when a RB nearly died after dropping the bar on his own throat during a bench press. The Trojans were not impressive last week against Washington State and Matt Barkley is not healthy. Cal should bounce back and at least put up a serious fight.

Boston College over Florida State: BC is a 4 point underdog this week against FSU at home. I know that BC has no offense and they were lucky to escape with a win over WF last week. But Florida State is a train wreck.

Mississippi State over Georgia Tech: The Maroon Dogs are 5.5 point underdogs against Tech at home. Just a hunch and a hope here. Tech walloped Miss State 38-7 last year. But this is a different year. State nearly beat LSU at home last week and the Jackets may not realize what they are walking into this Saturday.

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