The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 6 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-5); Straight Up (9-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (40-36); Straight Up (52-24)

Week 5 Review: Nice! Back over .500. Let’s keep it going!

Week 6 Preview: Well, I can tell you which teams are great and which teams suck ass. That should come into play a few times this week so I feel confident.

Sunday’s Early Games

Houston (+4.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Bengals cover
Comment: Houston has started the year going loss, win, loss, win, loss so they are due for a victory. But I’m now a believer in the Bengals and I’ve got no faith at all in the Texans, particularly on the road. Hopefully it will be a sellout in Cincinnati. Shocking that the chances of a local blackout are high. For me this would be the first time that the NFL has been directly and clearly affected by the recession. Trust me: people are passionate about the Bengals in Cincinnati and they are starving for the team to be competitive. But if you don’t have the money to go every week, you don’t have the money to go. I don’t know if Cincinnati has been hit particularly hard by the economic problems but it wouldn’t surprise me.

Detroit (+13.5) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: The Lions have a win this season and they kept it respectable against the Steelers last week. But they are banged up and the Packers are coming off of a bye. A win by 2 TD’s isn’t that much to ask.

St. Louis (+10) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jaguars cover
Comment: I’m not sure that I would take the Jags to cover a 10 point spread against any other team in the League. Oh wait, yeah, I’d take them to win by 10 over the Raiders. But that’s about it. You don’t know what you’re going to get from the Jags on any given Sunday. But you have a pretty good idea of what to expect from the Lams: hideous play. They are now 0-5 on the season and 2-23 in their last 25 games.

Baltimore (+3) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: Something has to give here. Either the Ravens are going to lose a 3rd straight game or the Vikings are going to lose for the first time this season. This isn’t a very big spread. The Vikes are at home and they are a team with few obvious weaknesses.

New York Giants (+3) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: Another very tough game to call, and once again, something has to give. Barring a tie, one of these teams will lose for the first time on Sunday. The Saints are at home and coming off of a bye, and Eli isn’t 100%, so I’ll give the edge to the Saints.

Cleveland (+14) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: The Steelers haven’t been that impressive this season but they should pummel the Browns at home as usual.

Carolina (-3) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Panthers cover
Comment: This is normally a solid battle between two decent teams but that is not the case this season. The Bucs may get their first win of the year this Sunday but I expect the Panthers to pull it out as long as Jake Delhomme doesn’t give the game away completely before the 2nd quarter.

Kansas City (+6.5) @ Washington
Pick: Redskins win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: What’s with this spread? The Redskins are in disarray and the Chiefs have competed in a number of games this season despite going winless. Despite a remarkably favorable schedule, the Skins are somehow just 1-3-1 ATS this season. They beat Tampa and St. Louis at home by a combined 5 points, and they’ve been beaten by the Lions and Panthers. The combined record of those 4 squads against teams other than Washington is 0-15! The Chiefs are 0-5 and just 1-4 ATS but they lost by 3 to Oakland and in OT to the Cowboys last week. Even in week 1 against Baltimore they stayed in the game late. I think the Chiefs will at least stay within a TD of the Skins.

Sunday’s Late Games

Philadelphia (-14) @ Oakland
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: I would not take Oakland…actually, there’s no need to expand on that statement. I would not take Oakland. Period.

Arizona (+3) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover
Comment: The Seahawks bludgeoning of the Jags could be just a 1 week mirage but the Cardinals have been as unimpressive as ever during the first quarter of the season. It’s like that bizarre, random postseason run to the Super Bowl never happened. Which reminds me why I rooted so hard against them throughout the playoffs. I never like to see a championship wasted on a fluke occurrence like we saw with the Cardinals last winter.

Tennessee (+9.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: I’m done with Tennessee. I keep thinking they’ll finally show up but they haven’t yet and I don’t think they are going to. They’re now 0-5 and 1-4 ATS. They’ve had a tough schedule but they seem to be getting worse as the season goes on. The Patriots have a winning record so far but they are nowhere near the team I thought they would be this season. Still, I can’t pick the Titans right now, especially if they’re thinking about giving the ball back to Vince Young.

Buffalo (+10) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: I thought the Bills were going to be a competitive team after they lost by a point in New England in week 1 and won by 13 over the Bucs in week 2. Since then they’ve been outscored 71-20 in 3 losses and last week they lost at home to the Browns by an embarrassing score of 6-3. If the Jets don’t win by at least 2 touchdowns their fans should start readjusting their hopes for the season.

Sunday Night’s Game

Chicago (+3) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: Last week’s victory was one of the most enjoyable I can ever recall in my life as a Falcons fan. Last year’s victory over the Bears, however, probably tops all of the others. Here’s hoping the atmosphere at the Dome on Sunday night is up to snuff. That place needs to be packed and the Midwesterners and posers wearing Bears gear need to be drowned out. This team deserves a full house and an enthusiastic home crowd. Hopefully things will work out, although I’ve got much more faith in my team than I do in my city.

Monday Night’s Game

Denver (+4) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Broncos beat the spread
Comment: Will the Broncos continue to get it done against whoever lines up across from them? The Chargers are coming off of a bye and they have owned the Broncos recently. Plus, Denver is still a bit unproven on the road. They were very lucky to win in Cincinnati in week 1 and their other road win was in Oakland. I think it’ll be a nail biter but I think the Broncos will lose for the first time in 09.