Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-4-1); Moneyline Upsets (0-3)
Season: Vs. Spread (30-38-2); Moneyline Upsets (6-11)
Week 7 Review: Finally a winning week against the spread (even if it was the closest you can get to .500 and still have a winning record). Unfortunately, I went 0-3 on moneyline upsets. It’s starting to slip away from me.
Week 8 Preview: This is—almost without question—the worst week of the college football season so far in terms of matchups. But who knows, it could end up being the most exciting week of the season if the games are tight and there are a few surprises. It’s really not a bad week, it’s just not sexy. This week is all about conference play.
Saturday
Game 1: South Florida (+7) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: South Florida beats the spread
Comment: You just can’t trust Pitt. They’ve already lost to a bad NC State team this year and their last two games against Connecticut and Rutgers were close contests. They’ve won 3 in a row since that loss to NC State and they’re due for another queef. South Florida struggles on the road and they just lost by 17 at home to Cinci when the Bearcats lost Tony Pike for the 2nd half. Still, I think the Bulls will at least stay within a TD.
Game 2: Boston College (+9) @ Notre Dame
Pick: Boston College beats the spread
Comment: I’m basing this purely on history. This series is tied 9-9 and BC has won 6 straight. With the exception of the season opener against Nevada, every ND game has ended up going down to the wire. BC’s 2 road games so far have been blowout losses and I’m not ready to call for them to beat ND for a 7th straight season but I think it’ll be close.
Game 3: Clemson (+6) @ Miami
Pick: Miami covers
Comment: Clemson is coming off their best game of the season but Miami is tough to beat on the road, even in Joe Robbie Stadium. If the Canes are good enough to beat Oklahoma and beat Georgia Tech by 13, and Clemson isn’t good enough to beat Maryland, then Miami should win this by at least a TD.
Game 4: Oklahoma (-7.5) @ Kansas
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comment: I have some serious concern over whether or not the Sooners can get up to play a decent Kansas team on the road a week after a spirit crushing loss to Texas, their 3rd close loss of the season, and after seeing their star QB go down again with a shoulder injury, this time for good. Also, the Jayhawks are coming off their first loss of the season, a tough 4 point defeat in Colorado, and they will certainly be up to play Oklahoma, even if the Sooners are not quite as inspired to play them. Kansas is a remarkable 27-4 at home since the start of the 05 season. However, I think Oklahoma’s defense can slow down the Kansas offense, and that’s really all Kansas has. Regardless of the injuries and the O-line problems, Oklahoma should shred the Jayhawk defense.
Game 5: Oregon (-7) @ Washington
Pick: Washington beats the spread
Comment: Why do I keep going back to the Huskies? They’re like that #7 seed that you picked to beat the #10 seed on all 8 NCAA Tournament Bracket sheets you filled out that ends up losing by 20 and then you find out that 70% of the country picked the upset. Okay, well that analogy doesn’t really make sense but the important thing here is that Washington football is the most exciting thing around these days. Early in the season they gave LSU a scare and pulled off one of the stunners of the season in beating USC. Their last 3 games have been absolutely ridiculous, each one coming to stunning and dramatic conclusions. Let’s see if Oregon can stay focused with the USC matchup looming and go on the road and take care of business in a game they should win. Either way, you can trust me on this: you need to be there for the 4th quarter. Something insane is likely to happen.
Game 6: Tennessee (+15) @ Alabama
Pick: Alabama covers
Comment: This is one of the great rivalries in the SEC and no doubt the Lane Kiffin/Nick Saban matchup will be an interesting era of this series. Bama has dominated teams with their defense and running game and I don’t think anything will change this week against the Vols. In the 2 UT-Bama games since Saban’s arrival the Tide have outscored the Vols 70-26. I like them to win by at least 3 scores.
Game 7: Iowa (-1) @ Michigan State
Pick: Iowa covers
Comment: I would actually like to see the upset here even if it means I pick this game incorrectly. The tiny spread at least makes me think it could happen because it seems so crazy to me. Usually when a line seems to make no sense to me there’s a reason: I don’t know what I’m talking about; Vegas does. With better luck the Spartans could be 7-0 instead of 4-3, but if Iowa can win by double digits at Penn State and at Wisconsin, shouldn’t they be able to win by a field goal at Michigan State?
Game 8: Texas (-13.5) @ Missouri
Pick: Missouri beats the spread
Comment: Texas has been fairly unimpressive this year, have they not? Colt McCoy is underachieving the way he did 2 years ago. The Horns are coming off the big win in the Red River Shootout or whatever it’s called. This is UT’s first trip out of Texas since September 12th and just their 2nd true road game of the season. This is “Homecoming” for Mizzu, whatever that means. In their last 15 games against the Tigers going back to 1931, Texas is 14-1. Since entering the 4th quarter with a 12-0 lead over Nebraska at home on a miserable Thursday night two weeks ago, the Tigers have been outscored 60-17. Missouri is not very good and I’m not expecting them to win but I think they could catch the Horns sleeping early and stay within 10 or so.
Game 9: Auburn (+7.5) @ LSU
Pick: LSU covers
Comment: This has been an awesome rivalry over the years. The visitor has lost 8 of the last 9 in this series and the last 5 meetings have been decided by a total of 19 points. I’m still not really sure how good LSU is but I don’t see them losing another home night game this year. For Auburn to give up 44 points at Arkansas was surprising. For them to score only 14 points at home against Kentucky was disturbing. I expect LSU to win by double digits.
Game 10: Arkansas (+4.5) @ Mississippi
Pick: Mississippi covers
Comment: One of these teams is going to come out of this game with their hopes of a great season still intact. If the Rebels win-out to go 10-2 it will be one of the greatest regular seasons in their history. If the Hogs win-out people will be talking about Bobby Petrino scaring the rest of the SEC—or maybe he’ll leave for a 10 year/100 million dollar contract to become the head coach at Clemson and be seen “Touching the Rock” at Death Valley just 2 days before Arkansas is due to play Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. All that said, this game is still all about Houston Nutt. There is much more pressure on Nutt and the Rebels than there is on Bobby Petrino and the Hogs. If Arkansas wins their fans can feel like they made the right choice forcing their former coach out to bring in the soulless Petrino. But even if the Hogs lose, they have still been competitive in Petrino’s 2nd year and the future looks pretty bright. If the Rebels win it will certainly be a load off Nutt and give the Rebels some confidence moving forward. But if Ole Miss loses the season will go from somewhat disappointing to very disappointing and will be bordering on utterly devastating. A loss here would sap every last bit of momentum the program gained by finishing so strong last season and would have every Arkansas fan and Houston Nutt critic saying “you see, typical Houston Nutt. He can’t get you over that hump. That’s why it was the right decision to move on in another direction.” I have to admit--despite all the confederate flag shit and “Southern Heritage” garbage that is a complete and utter disgrace upon the school, the state, the region, the country, and the entire human race—I’m rooting for Mississippi to put an ass whooping on Petrino and the Hogs.
Moneyline Special
Florida State over North Carolina: The Noles are 2.5 point underdogs on the road at UNC this Thursday night. It’s tough to sell this game as being in any way meaningful, even in this week of conference clashes. But of course the story in every Florida State game is all about Bobby Bowden and just how bad it’s going to get before his coaching career finally comes to a close. I know this is not Florida State as we have come to know them but I just can’t believe they are going to lose 4 straight games and fall to 2-5.
Michigan over Penn State: The Wolverines are 4.5 point underdogs at home against the Nittany Lions this week. Michigan has won 5 straight over PSU at the Big House and before losing last year’s game they had won 9 straight over Paterno’s boys overall. Penn State’s schedule has been so easy that if they lose this game to fall to 6-2 you would almost have to call their season a disappointment to this point.
BYU over TCU: The Cougs are actually 2.5 point underdogs against TCU this weekend despite being at home. BYU is still 20-1 at home since the start of the 2006 season. I think TCU is a better team but I like BYU to defend their home turf and avenge last year’s 32-7 loss to the Frogs, ending TCU’s perfect season hopes just as they did to the Cougars last season.
Virginia over Georgia Tech: The Cavaliers are 4 point underdogs at home against GT this weekend. I just want this one to happen really badly. Plus, UVA has been a tough place for the Jackets to play in recent years. The visitor is just 2-12 in the last 14 games of this series, but one of those wins came last season when UVA dealt Tech (favored by 14) a 24-17 loss. Virginia has beaten Tech 8 straight times at home and they’ve won 4 of 5 overall in this series. Remarkably, if Virginia does pull off the upset they will be alone atop the ACC’s Costal Division.
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