Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-5); Moneyline Upsets (1-3)
Season: Vs. Spread (35-43-2); Moneyline Upsets (7-14)
Week 8 Review: At this point I will take a .500 record ATS. On the other hand, the moneyline upsets continue to go in the wrong direction.
Week 9 Preview: Umm…is it just me or is this the worst week of college football in the last 5 years? What happened to the season? I mean this is at least the 3rd week in a row that I’ve thought to myself “This is the worst week of the season so far.” There are simply not 10 games worthy of being called “the 10 best games of the week.” For this week it’s the “the 10 least bad games of the week.” I’m through picking underdogs against the spread. I’m going with 10 favorites to cover. And there aren’t any moneyline upsets to choose from so once again I’ll be throwing darts.
Friday
Game 1: West Virginia (-3) @ South Florida
Pick: West Virginia covers
Comment: There’s nothing special about either of these teams. South Florida survived road games against FSU and the Cuse without QB Matt Grothe but in their 2 conference games since they are 0-2 and have been outscored 75-31. West Virginia is 6-1 but their victories have not been impressive. Bill Stewart is now 16-5 as head coach of the Mountaineers. He’s also reportedly a genuinely nice man. But I don’t think West Virginia will ever be a national power under Stewart and I have a feeling that by the time he exits Morgantown he will have left a serious rebuilding job for the next man. But as for this Friday, I think WV will win by a TD or more. This has been a low scoring contest traditionally, with West Virginia struggling more than expected. That may well be the case again, but I still like WV to cover.
Saturday
Game 2: Texas (-8.5) @ Oklahoma State
Pick: Texas covers
Comment: I would consider taking Ok State to win this game if they had Dez Bryant (How silly is the NCAA by the way?) but they don’t and they aren’t healthy in a number of other key areas. Okie State is 2-21 vs. UT but the last 2 games have been decided by a total of 7 points. The Horns will not be caught sleeping on the Cowboys and they showed signs of coming around to form last week in their rout of Mizzu. I think they win by double digits.
Game 3: USC (-3) @ Oregon
Pick: USC covers
Comment: Despite the planting of seeds by coaches that he his suspension might not be season-long after all, LeGarrette Blount has yet to be reactivated. I’m not sure how to read this. Did someone, somewhere among the higher-ups get word to the Oregon coaches that reinstating Blount was not kosher? Or did the program feel that bringing Blount back in time for the USC game would look really bad? It could be something else entirely. Maybe they never had plans to bring him back until later in the year. All that really matters as far as this Saturday is concerned is that Blount won’t be there. There are plenty of reasons to think Oregon may win this game. For starters, Autzen Stadium in Eugene is well known as the biggest homefield advantage on the west coast. And USC will be coming into that hostile environment with a freshman QB at the helm. Then again, that freshman QB has already won big games at Ohio State, at Cal, and at Notre Dame. USC’s only loss this season came on the road at Washington, but of course, Matt Barkley did not play in that contest. Oregon is hot. Their only loss of the season came in the season opener on blue turf in Boise. Since then they have won 6 straight over some big name teams and they’ve won impressively. But they haven’t beaten anyone like USC. This USC team is not as good as usual but it’s still USC. Don’t forget: this was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Oregon. Still, Oregon won the last matchup between these two teams in Eugene just two years ago. In perhaps USC’s least famous loss of the decade, Oregon defeated the Trojans 24-17 at home back in 2007. There are a few reasons why nobody talks about this game but this isn’t the forum to discuss that. All you need to know is that is the only game over the last 7 seasons in which USC was actually an underdog. The point is that it was mostly expected that the #5 Ducks, led by Dennis Dixon, would win at home over the #9 Trojans who had already lost to Stanford at home and had QB issues. That situation was so unlike any other that USC has been in over the last 9 years that it’s almost irrelevant. The rest of USC’s losses have been shocking slip-ups against lesser opponents (save the bowl game against Texas). USC almost never loses a big game. This is a big game and it is a game they are supposed to win. I think it will be close but I think USC pulls it out in the end.
Game 4: Mississippi (-3.5) @ Auburn
Pick: Mississippi covers
Comment: Auburn has dominated this series since 1971, winning 22 of 26, but it’s safe to say that this is a new day for both programs. Mississippi won last season at home and they are coming off of their best victory of the season. Auburn has lost 3 straight and they’ve already lost to Kentucky at home this year. Mississippi is not going to win the SEC but they can still have a great season if they just keep winning. The Tigers, on the other hand, ought to be feeling pretty desperate at this point. Clearly Auburn is not as good as their 5-0 start indicated but they might be good enough to stop their slide with a solid win over Mississippi. Mississippi is not a top 10 team but they might be good enough to take care of business against an Auburn team in transition. I think Mississippi will take care of business and Auburn’s slide will continue. I actually think Mississippi wins by double digits.
Game 5: Southern Mississippi (+6.5) @ Houston
Pick: Houston covers
Comment: Southern Miss has been somewhat of a disappointment in my eyes. They are 0-3 on the road so far, including losses at UAB and Louisville. Were it not for a slip-up at UTEP following 2 of the biggest victories in the program’s history, Houston would be in the hunt for a BCS bowl. They should be able to beat the Eagles at home by at least a TD and I expect them to win by double digits.
Game 6: Cal (-6.5) @ Arizona State
Pick: Cal covers
Comment: Anything could happen in this game.
Game 7: Central Michigan (+5) @ Boston College
Pick: Boston College covers
Comment: Central Michigan is easily the best team in the MAC this year. They also won at Michigan State earlier this season. BC is a decent team but nothing special. This is the sort of game that you’d think a team like CM could win but it seems like they usually end up getting blown out. One question I have is whether or not BC will be ready for this game, because we know that CM, at least in terms of motivation, will be. I think BC will win by a TD.
Game 8: Miami (-7.5) @ Wake Forrest
Pick: Miami covers
Comment: Look, the fact of the matter is that Miami ought to win this game by double digits. I don’t care that the game is in Winston-Salem. Yes, I know that Wake is 18-6 at home over the last 4 years; I don’t care. How big of a factor could it really be? The stadium only seats 31,500! The Canes really need to win this game and in my opinion the ACC really needs them to win this game. They should win by double digits regardless of location.
Game 9: Penn State (-14.5) @ Northwestern
Pick: Penn State covers
Comment: The Wildcats are 5-3, and yet you could make a case that their most impressive result this season was a 10 point loss at Michigan State 2 weeks ago. In their other 7 games, NW has beaten Towson at home by 33 (meaningless); won by 3 at home over Eastern Michigan (worse than a 30-0 loss to Ohio State); lost at Syracuse (embarrassing); lost at home by 11 to Minnesota (disappointing); won by 6 at Purdue (respectable); won by 10 at home over Miami of Ohio (worse than a 30-0 loss to Penn State); and won by a point at home over Indiana (speaks for itself). Penn State has had an easy schedule as usual but for the most part they’ve taken care of business, waxing foes by at least 18 points in each of their 7 wins. This will be the 2nd straight road game for the Nittany Lions and they are only 2-9 in their last 11 such games. Also, they are just 2-2 against NW in their last 4 meetings and the last 4 in Evanston have been decided by an average of 5 points. Plus, Penn State could be distracted by the showdown with Ohio State looming ahead. But despite all of that, this should be another blowout win for PSU.
Game 10: Georgia Tech (-11.5) @ Vanderbilt
Pick: Georgia Tech covers
Comment: This seems like one of the biggest locks of the season. Vandy is coming of their best game of the season, a 14-10 loss at South Carolina, but they are still staring down the barrel of an 0-8 conference record and their first 10 loss season since 2003. The Dores have played 6 games against relevant competition. Wins against Western Carolina (FCS) and at Rice (quite possibly the worst team in the FBS) are irrelevant. In their 6 other games they have yet to score more than 13 points. They have already lost 3 times at home this season by double digits. They lost to Army. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, is the best team in the ACC, has won 5 straight, and has scored at least 17 points in every game and at least 24 points in 7 of 8. In week 3, Vandy lost 15-3 to Mississippi State at home. In week 5, Tech won at Mississippi State, 42-31. In my opinion, this spread should be 24.5.
Moneyline Special
South Carolina over Tennessee: The Gamecocks are 6 point underdogs on the road against UT this weekend. It’s amazing how a close loss—added hugely by a late fluke fumble and a recovered onside kick—has resulted in the Vols being nearly a TD favorite over a 6-2 South Carolina team. The Vols have lost 5 games at home since the start of last season. They have lost 2 of the last 4 to SC, including once at home, and last year by 21 points in Columbia. Their 2 wins over SC in the last 4 years have come by 7 in 06, and by 3 in OT at home in 07. South Carolina has been as mediocre this season as they have been throughout Steve Spurrier’s time there but I have a feeling the Ol’ Ball Coach has something up his sleeve for Lane Kiffin.
Colorado over Missouri: Colorado is a 3.5 point home dog this week against Mizzu. Missouri is rebuilding and they have been humbled by 3 straight losses to open conference play. The Buffs are a bad football team but they are at home. And there just aren’t a lot of options this week as far as moneyline upsets are concerned.
Georgia over Florida: The Dawgs are 15 point underdogs against the Gators in the Cocktail Party this Saturday. I almost never do this sort of thing but what the hell. There’s a million reason not to pick Georgia to win this game, so I’m just going to list a few of the reasons why you might think about picking them to win. Over the years, the Dawgs have benefited greatly from having a week off prior to the Florida game. Overall in the regular season, the Dawgs are 10-2 under Mark Richt after a bye. While the Dawgs are coming off of their only convincing win of the season (34-10 over Vandy) and then a bye, the Gators have played a slugfest at LSU; escaped with a 3 point win over Arkansas at home; and won an ugly game on the road at Miss State. Florida has played with the pressure of being the defending champ and the #1 team all season. Georgia comes into this game feeling no pressure. They are expected to not only lose, but lose big. Georgia can focus solely on somehow winning this game to save their season. The Gators may be thinking about winning with style and may be thinking about a perfect season and about all the other undefeated teams around the country. Georgia is relatively fresh and healthy. The Gators are banged up. Tim Tebow has not been himself since the concussion in week 4. The last time Tim Tebow was not himself against Georgia, the Dawgs won. That time it was physical but it could be the same story this year. The only way Georgia can stay in the game against Florida is if Tebow and the other Gator offensive players make mistakes, and they’ve been doing that a lot since Tebow’s injury. Georgia can not stop an accurate passer but Tebow is not an accurate passer. The Dawgs have not been able to muster much offensively, but Florida’s defense is banged up. Georgia has gotten big plays from their return game all year and their place kicking and punting have been bright spots. The Dawgs are due to play a game when they don’t kill themselves with penalties and turnovers. The Gators are due for a loss, having won 17 straight. The Dawgs could play their best game of the season and not beat the spread. The Gators could play their worst game of the season and cover. But if the Gators play their worst game of the season, and the Dawgs play their best game of the season, and all the breaks go Georgia’s way, it could happen.
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