Last Week: Vs. Spread (7-7); Straight Up (8-6)
Season: Vs. Spread (47-43); Straight Up (60-30)
Week 6 Review: 7-7 against the spread is acceptable; 8-6 straight up is not.
Week 7 Preview: This looks like a tough week. Most of the heavy favorites are on the road. Also, a number of the teams that have been inconsistent so far are matched up against each other. I’m finding myself leaning towards underdogs ATS this week and towards favorites straight up.
Sunday’s Early Games
San Francisco (+3) @ Houston
Pick: Niners pull off the upset
Comment: The Niners have had two weeks to think about how they are going to respond to the embarrassing set back against the Falcons at home. More importantly, they should have Frank Gore back. The Texans have been tough to beat at home in recent years but they’ve already lost twice at home this season. The Texans have also alternated wins and losses through their first 6 games this season and they are due for a loss.
San Diego (-4.5) @ Chiefs
Pick: Chargers win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: The Chargers have once again dug themselves a hole and this time it may be too deep for them to climb all the way out of it. Even if they do eventually get themselves out of the hole, Norv Turner may not make it out with them. And as we’ve seen before, the Chargers do not always come through even when it looks like they are facing a must win game. In 2007 they were a popular pick to win the Super Bowl but after winning their opener they got blown out by the Patriots and then lost in Green Bay. You never expected them to drop 3 straight, especially with a home game against Kansas City up next, but they did, losing 30-16 as 11 point favorites to fall to 1-3. They went 10-2 the rest of the way and eventually reached the AFC Championship Game. Last season they began the year 0-2 and they were 3-5 after 8 games. Following a bye week they were 14 point favorites over the Chiefs at home but had to hang on for a 1 point win to avoid losing 3 straight. Then after close losses to the Steelers and Colts they were 4-7 and on the verge of falling out of playoff contention. They were again in a must win situation with Atlanta coming to town but the Falcons went across the country and won a sloppy game, 22-16 to deal the Chargers what looked like a fatal 8th loss. As we know, they won their final 4 games and eventually reached the Divisional Playoffs. So desperation for the Chargers sets in slowly and doesn’t guarantee they will play up to their capabilities even if they do end up getting a win. Plus they have major injury problems on the offensive and defensive lines. The Chiefs are coming off their first victory of the season and the week before that they took Dallas into overtime. When the Chiefs are even a decent team Arrowhead Stadium is tough place to play. I think this will be another close loss for KC and another non-convincing win for San Diego. They enter this game just 1-4 ATS this season.
Indianapolis (-13) @ St. Louis
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: The Rams were nearly handed their first win last week against the Jags but they wound up losing in OT. It was their 2nd near victory of the season. During the last 3 seasons, as the Lams have suffered through a pathetic 5-33 stretch, they have followed a remarkably consistent pattern. They have either been competitive—usually losing by just a few points with the rare victory popping up every now and then—or been the closest thing to a minor league team that pro football currently has. In their last 38 games the Rams have lost by at least 14 points 17 times. The Colts are 5-0 on the season, 4-1 ATS, and coming off of a bye. Bob Sanders will see his first action of the year. They should win by at least 3 scores.
New England (-14.5) vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: I have to question the NFL’s continuing to try and market the NFL to Great Brittan. Why would an area of the world where soccer is king and where the game of football is not played care about a football game played by two teams from America made up entirely of American athletes? It’s silly. The Patriots have been hit by injuries but they are coming off of a 59-0 win and they’re facing a team that is 0-6 on the year, 1-5 ATS, and has lost 4 of 6 games by 13 points or more. New England should win by at least 20. Is it weird that a team from the Boston area called the Patriots is going to play a game in London?
Minnesota (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Vikings beat the spread
Comment: Minnesota has been living on the edge a lot during their 6-0 start and it seems like they’re due to run out of luck in what seems likely to be a close game. The Steelers haven’t been nearly as impressive as I expected them to be so far this season but perhaps it is all a part of being the defending champ.
Green Bay (-9) @ Cleveland
Pick: Packers win but Browns beat the spread
Comment: This seems like a big spread to me. We all know what the Packers are capable of but they have not been able to put it all together yet in the post-Favre era. The Browns are a bad team and turmoil has been a constant for them since the day that Eric Mangini was hired. They’re also suffering from an outbreak of the flu. But the Packers are a banged up football team and just 3-7 in their last 10 road games. They have beaten the spread in their last 3 contests and their defense may keep them in this game for a while at home.
Sunday’s Late Games
Buffalo (+7) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers win but Bills beat the spread
Comment: Yes, I know, the Bills cannot stop the run. I know their starting QB is out. I know the game is in Carolina. But the Bills won last week without Trent Edwards, right? And while Carolina may be three times the running team that the Jets are, how much better can they really do on the ground than New York did last week? But that didn’t lead to a Buffalo loss. How’d the Bills beat the Jets? They forced New York’s QB into turnovers, right? And Jake Delhomme is still the QB of the Panthers. And no one would suggest that Carolina is a tougher place to play than the Meadowlands. There’s no way the Panthers defense is as good as New York’s. So the Bills should be fine and they have a chance to be competitive.
New York Jets (-6) @ Oakland
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: Obviously it’s tempting to go with the most recent trends. The Jets have lost 3 straight and the Raiders just handled the Eagles. On the other hand, the Jets are due for a win and if Mark Sanchez doesn’t give the game away they should get a win. I would be surprised if the Raiders score an offensive TD this week.
Atlanta (+4) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys cover
Comment: This would be an enormous win for the Falcons and it’s a pretty big game for Atlanta considering that the following week they will be in New Orleans for a Monday night contest against the 6-0 Saints who will be coming off of a bye. I sure hope I’m wrong on this one but this seems like the type of game the Falcons could come up short in. It’s on the road against a decent team that needs a win and is coming off of a bye. But it’s not like the Cowboys are all that healthy and despite the fact that Terrible TO is no longer around they have not been able to get away from distraction, dissent, and disappointment so far this season. However, the injuries have piled up on the Falcons at a bad time. They were very fortunate health wise last season and things have been different so far this year. Hopefully they can come through again but I’m afraid that Tony Romo and Jason Witten could have a lot of success. The Falcons play makers—Roddy White, Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez, and most importantly John Abraham—have got to have big days for Atlanta to win.
New Orleans (-6) @ Miami
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: People have learned to be wary of the Dolphins, especially at home, especially against a team that could be hurt by the Fins keeping the ball away from their offense. Miami will no doubt attempt to pick up first downs and run the clock to limit the number of possessions for Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense. Even if the Dolphins can only limit the New Orleans attack to a certain extent, they have scored 69 points in 2 games with Chad Henne. Plus, the Dolphins are coming off of a bye, while the Saints may suffer a slight let down after the huge win over the Giants last week. And the Giants have never seen the Wildcat the way Miami runs it. But all the Saints have to do to cover is win by a TD. The Dolphins could play a great game and the Saints could play a mediocre game and New Orleans might still win by a TD. They’ve won every game by at least 14 so far.
Chicago (+1) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Bears pull off the upset
Comment: I think the Bengals are pretty good and probably better than Chicago but I just get the feeling that their loss last week is going to be followed up by another home loss. Losing Antwan Odom for the season is a crushing blow. The Bears have struggled on the road lately, losing 9 of their last 13 away from home, but the Bengals are just 4-6-1 in their last 11 at home, and they’ve already lost twice at home this season. And I must say that Cedric Benson is starting to look like Cedric Benson again. First he was shutdown by a Texans defense that had previously been porous against the run. Then this week he shot his mouth off about how the Bears had mistreated him. And this is the Bengals we’re talking about. Things always end up falling apart in the end for this franchise.
Sunday Night’s Game
Arizona (+7) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover
Comment: I can understand why this spread is only 7. The Giants defense was exposed last week, as the Saints shredded them in the air last Sunday in New York (or New Jersey). The Cardinals have a great passing attack too. The difference is that’s all that the Cardinals can do. They absolutely can not run and the really don’t try to. Drew Brees is not Fran Tarkenton but Kurt Warner is a statue. The Giants will be able to put pressure on Warner. They will be able to protect the secondary because they won’t have to worry at all about the run and they can get to Warner for sacks, for fumbles, and to force picks. And during the regular season at least, primetime contests have not gone well for the Cardinals in recent years. There was the meltdown against the Bears in 2006 (“they are who we thought they were!”); the disappointing loss to San Francisco in the 2007 opener; the near collapse at home against the Niners last season when they tried to give the game away but were continuously handed the game back (“You gotta be kiddin me!”); the wholly uncompetitive Thanksgiving night game last year in Philly; and the 31-10 home loss to the Colts in week 3 of this season. New York is normally pretty good in primetime games. I like the Giants to win convincingly.
Monday Night’s Game
Philadelphia (-7) @ Washington
Pick: Eagles win but Skins beat the spread
Comment: I can’t figure out if this is a good matchup for ESPN or a bad one. On the one hand, it’s not the battle between NFC East rivals fighting not to be the only team in the division left out of the playoffs that they probably expected. On the other hand, last week’s inexcusable performance against the Raiders has reminded everyone why Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid have never taken the Eagles to a championship and were both on the verge of seeing their time in Philly end late last season before they pulled it together and squeaked into the playoffs. Plus, we will all be treated to a totally boring and annoying running on-air argument between Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski about Michael Vick’s role in the Eagles’ offense. Vick will take a snap, immediately look around for an alley to run through, end up getting brought down for a 2 yard loss and Gruden will shout about how scary he is for defensive coordinators. McNabb will have a man wide open on 3rd down and will throw the ball in the dirt and Jaws will blindly protect and support him and talk about how the Eagles need to get him some help at receiver and how they don’t need to run it because they are a passing team and that’s what they do. Oh yeah, and the Redskins are an abject disaster. They are the official NFL train wreck of the 2009 season. They have a lame duck coach with no authority. They have decided to have an aging offensive guru make the transition from calling out bingo numbers to calling out plays this week in front of a national audience. They have repeatedly decided that Jason Campbell is not the answer at quarterback before remembering that they don’t have anyone better and then telling him that he is their man. Their owner is a creepy wannabe who can’t stop meddling and spending, meddling and spending. And if that isn’t enough, they have perhaps the biggest clown in the NFL playing for them on defense, Mr. DeAngelo Hall. It would be typical NFL if the Skins somehow won this game. I think both teams will block a field goal for a touchdown and the Eagles will win 13-9.
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