The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 3 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (6-10); Straight Up (8-8)
Season: Vs. Spread (16-16); Straight Up (21-11)

Week 2 Review: As I feared, things evened out after my great opening week, as I was below .500 ATS and only 8-8 straight up. Hopefully that’s as bad as I’ll do picking winners this year. Surely I’ll have a worse record ATS at some point but you gotta at least be over .500 straight up.

Week 3 Preview: I’d like to think that a rebound week is coming up or even a decent week to go along with the one great week and one bad week. But to be honest I’ve got no clue. I feel like you could go either way in almost every game this week. And that’s not a good feeling to have when you’re picking against the spread.

Sunday’s Early Games

Cleveland (+13) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover.
Comment: If I had to pick the team least likely to lose in week 3 it would be Baltimore. The Ravens are now 14-4 ATS in their last 18 regular season games, including 6-1 ATS as a home favorite. They’ve won 5 of 6 against the Browns at home. The Ravens have put up point totals of 38 and 31 in their first two games. That’s great news. What’s distressing is that they’ve allowed point totals of 24 and 26 in their first two games. Last season the Ravens only allowed 24 points or more in 4 of 16 regular season games. But none of that really matters because it’s the Browns who are coming to town. The “New” Browns have lost by 14 and 21 in their first two games this season, scoring just 6 points against Denver last week. The “Old” Browns should crush the Mangenius and Brady “Now I’m Done” Quinn by at least 2 TD’s.

New York Giants (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Giants cover.
Comment: While the Giants are arguably the best team in the NFL right now, they are banged up heading into this one. The Bucs have lost by 13 points in each of their games so far this season, including in week 1 against the Cowboys, who the Giants bested on the road in week 2. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a great home field advantage but a lot of that had to do with the team that was in place for so many years. The Giants are 7-2-1 in the regular season as road favorites since the start of 2007. I’ll take the G-Men to win by at least a TD.

Green Bay (-6.5) @ St. Louis
Pick: Packers cover.
Comment: Well at least the Packers should have no trouble coming into this game overconfident. What happened to them? They were riding high after the primetime win over the Bears and then they lose to the Bungals at home. The Pack was only 2-6 on the road last year but the Rams have lost 9 of 10 at home and 20 of 22 overall. Green Bay should rebound and beat the awful Lams by at least a TD.

Kansas City (+9.5) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover.
Comment: This line is off the boards but it opened at 9.5. We don’t know whether or not D-Mac will play for Philly but I doubt it at this point. Brian Westbrook and Desean Jackson are also banged up for the Eagles. But the Chiefs are the Chiefs. KC has lost 25 of their last 27 games, including 12 of 13 on the road. I’ll take whatever Eagles show up to win by double digits.

Atlanta (+4) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: This is a big game for both teams. The Patriots are looking vulnerable and you wonder what the confidence level is like in that locker room right now. There are all those new faces on defense. The offensive line is struggling. The running game is struggling. Brady has been shaky and rusty and very human. Now the Falcons are coming to town looking for a statement win. I mean, if the Falcons win this game, two things happen: you start talking about the Falcons as Super Bowl contenders and you start wondering if the Patriots will miss the playoffs for a second straight year. As a pessimistic Falcons fan I’m probably being influenced somewhere in my mind but I have to think that the Patriots get it together and respond this week. I think it’ll be a good game but I’d bet on New England winning by a TD.

San Francisco (+7) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings win but Niners beat the spread.
Comment: Hmmm…no respect for the Niners. A full TD underdog against the Vikes in the dome. It’ll be interesting to see how Brett Favre plays in his first home game for Minnesota. It’ll also be interesting to see how the Niners play away from the west coast. I think Minnesota will win to stay unbeaten but I think the Niners will keep it within a TD.

Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Houston
Pick: Texans cover.
Comment: What’s happened to the Jaguars? They’ve lost 10 of their last 12 games overall. They’ve lost 5 of 6 in Houston where the Texans are tough to beat. Houston rebounded from a disastrous opening week loss at home to the Jets by beating the Titans in Tennessee last week. Which Texans team will show up this week? I’m thinking the Texans win fairly easily, as they’ve covered in each of their last 3 home games against the Jags.

Washington (-6.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Redskins cover.
Comment: The Redskins seem to have difficulty taking care of business against weak opponents. They’re just 7-13-2 ATS in the last 22 games they’ve been favored in. Last season they lost as a 13 point favorite at home against the Rams; won by 3 at home as a 7.5 point favorite against Cleveland; and lost as a 6.5 point favorite at home against the Bengals. In 2007, the Skins won by 2 at home as an 8 point favorite over the Cards and lost to the Bills at home as a 6 point favorite. Last week they were favored by 10 against the Rams at home and won just 9-7. Oh yeah, and they also can’t seem to score. They’ve lost 4 in a row on the road. They were 7.5 point favorites against the Lions in Detroit last year and barely covered, winning by 8. I think the Lions could put a scare into them. But the Lions are the Lions. They’ve now lost 19 in a row going back to the final game of the 2007 season. They’ve lost 25 of their last 26 games. Actually, it might do the Skins some good to get out of Washington, while the Lions can’t be getting much of a home field edge right now in D-Town. I’ll take the Skins by a TD or so.

Tennessee (+1) @ New York Jets
Pick: Titans pull off the upset.
Comment: I may not be looking at this completely objectively because I do have a strong dislike for Rex Ryan and I’m already dog tired of hearing about the Jets and their fat, loud-mouthed coach. But I also have trouble seeing the Titans go 0-3. I think they’ll pull out a hard fought win to save their season before it gets completely derailed.

New Orleans (-6) @ Buffalo
Pick: Saints cover.
Comment: This might be the toughest came for me to call in week 3. The Saints have scored at will and won easily in each of their first two games. The Bills should also be 2-0. The Bills will have the home edge and that should help them. But I think the Saints will pull away in the 4th quarter.

Sunday’s Late Games

Chicago (-1) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks pull off the upset.
Comment: This is a tough one because Matt Hasselbeck’s status is up in the air. Also, Seattle’s home field advantage is one of the best in the NFL. The Bears have lost 9 of 12 on the road. If Hasselbeck doesn’t play then I don’t think Seattle will win but I think he’ll tough it out and lead the Seahawks to a victory.

Denver (-1) @ Oakland
Pick: Broncos cover.
Comment: The Broncos really need to take advantage of the situation they are in and get out to a 3-0 start. They always seem to start out on the right foot. This is their 3rd straight season opening up 2-0 and a win on Sunday will give them a 2nd straight 3-0 start. The Broncos have won 5 of 6 at the Black Hole, including a 41-14 win opening night of last season. I like Denver to pull out a close, low scoring game.

Miami (+6) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Dolphins beat the spread.
Comment: Big, big game for the Miami Dolphins. They are staring 0-3 in the face. They are on the road and coming off a tough loss. San Diego is also looking to rebound but the pressure is not on them so much because of the division they play in. The Dolphins really have to find a way to win this one. I don’t think they will win but I think it’ll be very close.

Pittsburgh (-4) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: I know the Steelers have some question marks but they aren’t going to lose to the Bengals. They’ve won 8 straight in Cinci. I like the Steelers to win a heated and dirty affair by double digits.

Sunday Night’s Game

Indianapolis (+1) @ Arizona
Pick: Colts pull off the upset.
Comment: For some reason I just don’t think the Cardinals will be at their best in this one. I think Manning will lead the Colts on another late drive to win in primetime on the road.

Monday Night’s Game

Carolina (+9) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Panthers beat the spread.
Comment: This is a huge spread. The Cowboys could very possibly be without Marion Barber. If Jake Delhomme takes care of the ball the way he did in Atlanta last week the Panthers should hang in this game. Carolina will be desperate to avoid falling to 0-3. I don’t see the Boys running away with this game. Dallas should get their first win at the 8th Wonder of the World or whatever it’s called but the Panthers should keep it in single digits.