The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 3 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-5); Moneyline Upsets (1-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (10-10); Moneyline Upsets (2-2)

Week 2 Review: It was an exact repeat of week 1 for me last week. My only really bad picks were Iowa State staying within 6.5 of Iowa and Tennessee covering the 9 point spread against UCLA. I should have been 2-0 on upset picks but a phantom holding call stole a win away from Clemson against Tech.

Week 3 Preview: There are more good games to choose this week than either of the first two weeks. But these games seem to be tougher to pick. Hopefully I’ll get over the hump this week and post a winning record.

Thursday

Game 1: Georgia Tech (+4.5) @ Miami
Pick: Miami covers
Comment: The Jackets were looking scary last Thursday night as they jumped out to a 24-0 lead over Clemson at home. But in reality, Tech’s early lead was built on a series of somewhat fluky plays: an 82 yard run for a TD on the first option play the Jackets ran; an 85 yard punt return for a TD on an ill-advised and poorly executed pooch punt; and a 34 yard pass for a TD by the kicker on a fake field goal. But beginning in the middle of the 2nd quarter, Clemson came roaring back, scoring 27 unanswered points to take the lead in the 4th quarter. Tech tied it with around 5 minutes to go but Clemson was in position for the win after a 38 yard pass on 3rd and 11 from their own 44 gave them a 1st down at the Tech 18 with a little over 3 minutes to play. However, a phantom holding penalty on a Clemson lineman in the middle of the field changed everything, making it 3rd and 21 from the Clemson 34 instead. The Tigers threw incomplete on 3rd down to stop the clock and they had to punt. The Jackets took over at their own 35 with 2:52 to play and they went down and kicked a field goal to win it. Give Tech credit for getting the job done but they were very fortunate to come away with the win. They’ve been pretty damn good in close games under Paul Johnson. Actually, it goes back even before Johnson got there. The Jackets are 8-1 in their last 9 games decided by 4 points or less. They’re 6-1 in games decided by 4 points or less under Johnson and have won the last 5 such games in a row. On the other hand, Tech’s last 3 losses and 6 of their last 7 have been by 7 points or more; 5 of those have been by 12 points or more. This is a series that the Jackets have faired very well in. Tech is 10-3 against Miami in the regular season and they have won 4 in a row over the Canes. Last year Miami came to Atlanta having won 5 straight, while the Jackets had just lost 28-7 to UNC. In a primetime matchup, the Jackets ran all over Miami, racking up 472 yards on the ground for a 41-23 victory that was not as close as the score indicated. In the last matchup in Miami back in 2007 the Jackets were down 7 at halftime but they out-gained the Canes 244-71 in the 2nd half to win 17-14. I think Miami will be much more prepared for this year’s game than they were last year. For one thing, the Canes had never seen Tech’s offense before last year and they had no clue how to stop it. This year they will know better what to expect and they will have had 10 days off with which to prepare. It will be interesting to see what kind of homefield advantage—if any—the Canes have at Joe Robbie Stadium this year. In 07 (their last year in the Orange Bowl) and 08 (their first year at Joe Robbie) the Canes were just 4-5 at home against teams from the major conferences. I think Miami will win by a touchdown.

Friday

Game 2: Boise State (-7) @ Fresno State
Pick: Boise State covers
Comment: This game is very, very tricky. You start with Fresno State, who will be coming into this game off of a heartbreaking defeat at Wisconsin in overtime. Fresno State led for almost the entire day, leading 21-7 at one point in the 2nd quarter and holding the lead until the 5:45 mark of the 4th quarter. The Bulldogs out-gained Wisconsin by 55 yards but they missed a field goal, allowed a long kick return, and lost the turnover battle 3-0. It was just another near miss for the Bulldogs. It will be interesting to see where Fresno State is at mentally. They have been in the habit of playing very well in big matchups and then turning around and choking against lesser opponents. But that doesn’t seem to apply in this case, as the Dogs will be going up against the #10 Boise State Broncos. It’s a strange thing: Fresno State has become famous for being a team that is not afraid to play anyone and can hang with the best teams in the country, and yet Pat Hill has never won an outright WAC title. Boise State has played a big role in that. Boise State is the only WAC school that Fresno has a losing record against. They’ve lost the last 3 to the Broncos and 7 of 8, and those last 8 games have been decided by an average of 19 points. This game is in Fresno, which is the only thing that gives the Dogs a chance. One thing to note is that Fresno State often does quite live up to their reputation in Vegas. For example, coming into this season Fresno State had gone 11-26 against the spread over the last 3 years. Last season they were 2-11 ATS, including 0-5 ATS at home. They are 3-13 ATS at home over the last 3 years!!! They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Boise State. Boise State is not flawless. So far this season they have won at home against Oregon and demolished Miami of Ohio at home. But Oregon is way down this year in the first season under Chip Kelly and Miami of Ohio is one of the worst teams in the FBS. One of Boise’s 2 conference losses since 2002 came here in 03 so…actually, I think the discussion ends at “2 conference losses since 2002.” The Broncos should win it and their last 7 wins over Fresno have come by an average of 24 points.

Saturday

Game 3: Boston College (+6.5) @ Clemson
Pick: Boston College beats the spread
Comment: Clemson won this game last year but BC beat the Tigers the previous 3 years. All 4 games were decided by 6 points or less and 2 went into overtime. BC won by 3 in OT at Death Valley in 05 and won by 3 in regulation on the road in 07. The Tigers will have had 9 days off since their heartbreaking loss at Tech. BC has yet to be challenged this year, having outscored Northeastern and Kent State 88-7 in 2 home games. I think Clemson will win but I think BC will stay within a TD.

Game 4: Tennessee (+29.5) @ Florida
Pick: Florida covers
Comment: The Gators are easily the best team in the country and the Vols may not score. The Gators are 4-0 against Tennessee under Urban Meyer, covering in 3 of the last 4 against the Vols. The last time these two played in the Swamp it was a 59-20 Florida win. Last year the Gators won 30-6 in Knoxville. The Gators are 32-3 at home since the start of the 04 season, they are 11-1 ATS at home since the start of the 07 season, and 21-5 ATS overall since the start of the 07 season. Lane Kiffin’s “smart” mouth will have a minimal effect on the game because the Gators are always fired up to kill the Vols. Florida should win by at least 30, which is not good for the SEC.

Game 5: Nebraska (+5) @ Virginia Tech
Pick: Virginia Tech covers
Comment: I actually think Nebraska is a good team and I think VT is limited offensively. The problem is, Nebraska has to come all the way to the East coast, and not many teams win at Lane Stadium (Hokies are 59-9 at home this decade). Last year VT won by 5 at Nebraska. I think it’ll be a good game but I see VT winning it by a TD or so.

Game 6: East Carolina (+7.5) @ North Carolina
Pick: East Carolina beats the spread
Comment: So far, ECU has not been very impressive. They led 10-0 at West Virginia last week and they were down just a point at the half, but they ended up losing 35-20 and being out-gained 509-237. In their opener they won by just 5 over Ap State at home. UNC was lucky to come out of their game at UConn last week with a 12-10 win, scoring a safety on a holding call in the end zone to complete a comeback from down 10-0 in the 4th quarter. I think the Heels will win because they are at home and they are the better team but the Pirates were 13-3 ATS as a road underdog over the last 4 years coming into this season. I think they’ll stay within a TD.

Game 7: Michigan State (+10) @ Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame covers
Comment: This line has gotten smaller as the week has gone on. The Spartans were shocked by Central Michigan at home last Saturday, while the Irish lost a heartbreaker at the Big House. MSU is 9-3 in this series and has won 3 of the last 4. Normally the visitor wins in this rivalry (7-1) but I don’t see it this year. I think Notre Dame will win by a couple of touchdowns.

Game 8: USC (-20) @ Washington
Pick: Washington beats the spread
Comment: USC has been ridiculously dominant since 2002, going 84-9 in 93 games. But when they have lost, it’s almost always been on the road. Only 1 of their 9 losses over that time has been at home, and 7 have come in true road games. Actually, Troy lost 4 road games over the previous 3 seasons, which is a lot compared with 1 over the 3 seasons before that. New Washington coach Steve Sarkisian was of course the USC offensive coordinator the last 2 years and was on Pete Carroll’s staff for 8 years. The Huskies’ main problem is their very tough schedule. In my opinion they are one of the most improved teams in the entire country. Last season they lost 56-0 in LA but they had played the Trojans very tough in the previous 2 years. In 06, #3 USC won 26-20 over Washington at home as 19 point favorites. In 2007, USC was #1 and favored by 20.5 on the road but they won just 27-24. USC is almost unbeatable in big games. If they were as unbeatable in “easy” games they would have 5 or 6 national titles. This is the sort of game that USC has lost over the last few years but I don’t think that will happen. I do think Washington will surprise some people though, especially with Matt Barkley hurting. Speaking of Barkley, I’m not ashamed to say that I have a feeling close to hatred for him. There’s a difference between being confident and being a cocky, spoiled little Orange County brat. The shot of him with his helmet off, kneeling and praying out loud with his eyes closed is enough to make one want to vomit.

Game 9: Florida State (+7.5) @ BYU
Pick: BYU covers
Comment: Give the Noles credit for scheduling this game. The Cougars have won 18 straight in Provo. Last week FSU was very fortunate to come away with a win over Jacksonville State at home. The Noles are not back. They aren’t close to being back. On the contrary, the Noles are far, far away from what they once were. I like BYU to win by double digits.

Game 10: Texas Tech (+17.5) @ Texas
Pick: Texas covers
Comment: Before Tech’s miracle win over Texas in Lubbock last season, Texas had won 5 in a row over the Red Raiders. The Horns are 51-4 at home this decade. Texas Tech is 24-25 on the road this decade. Both teams have had blowout wins over weak opponents in their first two games but we know more about Texas than we do about Tech. Texas Tech lost a ton from last year’s 11 win team; too much to pull off a win like this. It’ll be high scoring (the lowest total in the last 7 between these 2 teams was 66 in 2006) but I think the Horns will roll.

Moneyline Special

Syracuse over Northwestern: Syracuse is a 3.5 point underdog at home this week against Northwestern. I don’t particularly love any games for moneyline upsets this week so I just picked a couple that I thought might happen. Northwestern barley hung on to beat Eastern Michigan at home last week, while the Cuse lost in OT against Minnesota in week 1. Last week the Orange lost at Penn State but a 28-7 loss in Happy Valley was actually a sign that Syracuse is getting better. I think Cuse has a good shot to beat the Wildcats.

Kent State over Iowa State: Kent State is a 3 point dog at home against the Cyclones this week. Kent State is just 20-28 at home this decade but ISU has lost 17 straight on the road. Last week the Cyclones lost 35-3 to Iowa at home. Last season ISU won 48-28 over Kent State at home but the Golden Flashes won at Ames in 2007, 23-14. Kent State was no match for BC on the road last week but I think they can win this one.