The College Football Blog: Thoughts on Contenders and Conferences

Updating the Season Résumé Rankings

The “Season Résumé” top ten is still a bit pointless because there are so many teams at 2-0. Actually, a few teams have only played 1 game, so the rankings aren’t that interesting yet. But here’s my 2nd edition of the Season Résumé Top 10. (For those who don't know, these are totally different from my power rankings. For an explanation, see blog about CFB rankings)

1. Florida 2-0 (1st)
2. Alabama 2-0 (2nd)
3. BYU 2-0 (4th)
4. USC 2-0 (5th)
5. Boise State 2-0 (7th)
6. Cal 2-0 (8th)
7. Cincinnati 2-0 (9th)
8. Michigan 2-0 (NR)
9. Houston 2-0 (NR)
10. Texas 2-0 (NR)

Obviously Oklahoma State dropped from 3rd to negative something after their loss at home to Houston. I had to move Miami and Ole Miss out since they were off last week. I moved Houston and Michigan in after their big wins and Texas jumped into the top 10 even though they still haven’t played anybody. Again, these seasonal Résumé rankings will get more interesting later in the year.

But as wide open as things are this early in the year, it’s remarkable to look at how many teams are already virtually eliminated from the National Title hunt. It’s not accurate to say that one loss for any team ends NC dreams. In fact, the NC is rarely undefeated these days. But 1 loss does end NC dreams for certain teams. Nothing is certain, of course, but there are some assumptions we can make without going out on a limb. First of all, no team from a non-BCS conference (other than Notre Dame) can make the BCS NC game unless they’re undefeated. I think we can all agree on that one. Furthermore, no team with 1-loss (other than USC or ND) would make the BCS title game ahead of a 1-loss team from the SEC or Big XII. That’s a pretty safe assumption as well. The only possible exceptions might be a situation where Oklahoma and Texas each finish with only 1 loss, but Texas goes to the XII Championship Game and loses to a 3-loss Kansas team. Obviously Texas would be out and it’s unlikely that voters would allow a team that didn’t even make their conference championship game to go to the NC game. Another possibility would be an undefeated XII or SEC team losing in their conference title game. Other than those two scenarios, a 1-loss SEC or XII team would make the title game over any 1-loss team from another conference unless it was USC or Notre Dame. So basically, any non-BCS team other than Notre Dame would have to go undefeated to have even a shot at making the NC game. Additionally, any Big XII or SEC team with 1 loss would likely make the BCS title game ahead of a 1-loss team from another conference (other than ND or USC). It’s also unlikely that there wouldn’t be at least 1 team from both the Big XII and SEC with only 1 loss. Therefore, any team from outside the Big XII and SEC (other than USC and ND) would be very unlikely to make the title game unless they were undefeated. With these reasonable assumptions in mind, there are a ton of teams already out of the hunt or at least way behind the 8-ball.

The only team from the Big XII or SEC that is truly out of the hunt for the BCS title game is Colorado, who already has 2 losses. Going into the Miami-GT game on Thursday night, there were only 4 ACC teams left without a loss. The soft schedules of Big East and Big Ten teams are having an effect on things, as 7 teams from the Big Ten are undefeated and 5 of 8 Big East teams have yet to lose. The Pac-10 still has 6 undefeated teams. Only 4 Conference USA teams are still undefeated, while none of the 3 Independent teams are still without a loss. Realistically, every MAC team is eliminated from the BCS title game race before the season even begins, but just in case you were wondering, there’s not one MAC team left without a loss. 4 Mountain West teams, 2 WAC teams, and 1 Sun Belt team have made it to week 3 without a loss. Taking all of this together, 62 of the 120 teams eligible for the BCS title game have been—barring a very unlikely string of surprising results—have already been eliminated. The number will be trimmed down farther in the week ahead.

The Big Eleven “Down” Again

The Big Ten is 18-4 against the rest of college football after 2 weeks. It’s not that the conference is better this year; it’s as weak as ever. The reason for the great record is that the Big Ten Conference plays a very light non-conference schedule early on and they’ve been very lucky so far this year. At some point people are going to realize that the Big Ten isn’t very good and they’ll start talking about 2009 being a “down year” for the conference. My question is this: when is the Big Ten going to be seen as a 2nd rate conference and not a topnotch conference annually having a down year? Let’s look at what the Big Ten teams have done so far this year.

Penn State opened against Akron at home. The Zips are from the MAC and they came into this year 48-58 since the start of the 2000 season. They haven’t lost less than 5 games in a season this decade and PSU won 31-7. In week 2, PSU hosted Syracuse, the worst team from a BCS conference over the last 4 or 5 years. Coming into this season, the Orange was 10-37 since the start of 2004 and 7-32 on the road since 2002. Penn State only won 28-7. Ohio State is the dominant team of the Big Ten. They opened the season with a 31-27 win at home over service academy Navy. The Midshipmen went for a 2-pt conversion to tie the game with just minutes to play and it was returned for a safety to make the final spread 4 points. Last week Ohio State hosted USC and lost, meaning the best team in the Big Ten couldn’t beat the best team from the Pac-10, despite being at home and facing a true freshman playing in his 2nd game. Illinois played at a neutral site in week 1 against a rebuilding Missouri squad and lost 37-9. In week 2 they played Illinois State of the FCS and won 45-17. Iowa opened the season at home against Northern Iowa of the FCS and won 17-16, blocking 2 short field goals in the final 10 seconds of the game to avoid the upset. Last week they played on the road against Iowa State (9-27 over the last 3 years going into this season) and beat the worst team from the Big XII, 35-3. Michigan State whipped FCS team Montana State 44-3 in week 1, but last week they lost at home to Central Michigan of the MAC, 29-27. Michigan has been the most impressive Big Ten team so far, beating Western Michigan of the MAC, 31-7, at home to open the year, and stunning ND, 38-34 at home last week. Wisconsin opened the season hosting NIU from the MAC and they won 28-20. Last week they hosted Fresno State of the WAC and needed double OT to win 34-31. Minnesota began the year at Syracuse, whose struggles have already been documented. The Gophers stole the game in overtime, 23-20. Last week they beat service academy team Air Force, 20-13, at home. Northwestern opened the season with a 47-14 home win over Towson of the FCS. Last week they played Eastern Michigan of the MAC at home and won 27-24. Purdue opened the year with a win at home over Toledo of the MAC, 52-31. Last week they went on the road to Oregon and lost to a rebuilding Ducks team, 38-36. Finally, Indiana began the year winning just 19-13 over FCS team Eastern Kentucky. Last week they hosted Western Michigan of the MAC and won 23-19. That’s a lot of home games, a lot of games against FCS teams, a lot of games against teams from the MAC, a lot of games against teams from other non-BCS conferences, a lot of games against the weakest teams from BCS conferences, and a lot of close and somewhat lucky wins. Despite the 18-4 record, the Big Ten maybe as bad as or worse than ever this season.

SEC’s Reputation Taking a Hit

The other day I was complaining about the SEC suffering some disappointing losses during the first 2 weeks when my buddy pointed out that teams from every conference had already had some bad losses. His point was that the SEC wasn’t doing any worse than anybody else and he was 100% right. The problem is that fans of the SEC (such as me) like to claim that the SEC is a level above the rest. They can’t make that claim if the SEC is faring exactly the same as every other conference. Two losses early in this season have hurt the argument that the SEC is superior. First, in week 1 Georgia was beaten handedly by Oklahoma State on the road. This wasn’t good for the SEC because Georgia has been one of the top teams from the conference year in and year out and they were getting soundly beaten by a rising team from the conference most feel is closest to the SEC in strength. However, the game was at Oklahoma State and the Cowboys were thought to be one of the best teams in the country. So it wasn’t really that bad of a loss for the SEC. That was before Houston—a team from Conference USA that has lost at least 4 games in each season this decade--went into Stillwater in week 2 and beat Oklahoma State by 10, scoring 45 points, 35 more than Georgia had scored the week before. Now Georgia’s 24-10 defeat to Oklahoma State looks really bad for the SEC.

But it doesn’t look anywhere near as bad as Tennessee’s 19-15 loss to UCLA at home last week looked. For many years the Vols were a national power from the SEC but they’ve become very average. Neyland Stadium is supposed to be one of the toughest places to play in the SEC but UCLA—a team picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Pac-10—flew across the country for a day game and was able to come away with a win to backup their victory over the Vols in LA last season. It was a disgraceful performance by Tennessee and an embarrassment for the SEC. It’s still my opinion that the top teams in the SEC are better than the top teams in the rest of the country. We’ll have to wait for bowl season to see how the SEC’s best fair against the other elite teams. As for the middle and the bottom of the conference, there’s just not much proof that the SEC is any better than the other BCS conferences. So far SEC teams have done a good job of taking care of business against weak competition. But the losses by Georgia and Tennessee have put a damper on things for the SEC.


Big XII Not Exempt from Early Season Disappointment

For all the talk in recent years about the Big XII having become the other dominant conference in the country to go along with the SEC, the conference has looked pretty ordinary through 2 weeks of the 09 season. First, Oklahoma lost on a neutral field to a team from the Mountain West. Obviously BYU isn’t just any team and the loss of Sam Bradford was a huge factor but it was still a major blow to the Big XII. Then last week the Big XII took an even bigger hit, as Oklahoma State went from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows. After beating SEC power Georgia 24-10 in the opener, moving into the top 5, and appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated, Oklahoma State was exposed by Houston of C-USA at home in week 2, losing 45-35. There have been other positives for the Big XII during the first two weeks: Baylor beating Wake Forrest on the road; Missouri surprising everyone with a blowout win over Illinois in St. Louis; etc. But the bottom feeders of the Big XII have struggled. Kansas State opened the year with a 21-17 win over UMass of the FCS. Then in week 2, Louisiana-Lafayette of the Sun Belt knocked off the Wildcats. Iowa State got stomped by in-state rival Iowa at home, 35-3 last week. And perhaps no team in all of college football has been as disappointing as Colorado. In their opener, the Buffs got beat by their in-state rivals from the Mountain West, Colorado State, 23-17 at home. Then playing in a stand-alone game last Friday night, Colorado gave up 54 points in a 16 point loss to Toledo of the MAC. Dan Hawkins and his son are less popular than Kobe and the Ramseys in Boulder at this moment.