The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 4 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (3-7); Moneyline Upsets (1-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (13-17); Moneyline Upsets (3-3)

Week 3 Review: After 5-5 records in the first 2 weeks of the season, something had to give, and as you’d expect, I gave way to a losing record against the spread. My worst pick by far was BYU covering -7.5 against FSU, as they lost by 26 points (54-28). My moneyline upset pick of Kent State over Iowa State didn’t go too well either, as they lost 34-14.

Week 4 Preview: There aren’t that many good games this weekend. What’s more, the best matchups are not the games that I feel good about betting on. I’ve got zero confidence going into this week.

Thursday

Game 1: Mississippi (-3) @ South Carolina
Pick: Mississippi covers
Comment: Well, if the Rebels are at all deserving of their high ranking early in this season they will cover this spread in Columbia. It’s unclear how much history plays into this one because Ole Miss has reached a level they haven’t seen in many years, while the Ol’ Ball Coach has rarely been able to work the kind of magic for South Carolina that he did for many years at Florida. The Rebels have won 7 straight games going back to last season, but the Gamecocks have won 6 of their last 8 at home and last season they defeated Ole Miss in Oxford, 31-24. The Rebels are the better team so they should win it by more than a field goal. But it will be their first true test of the season.

Saturday

Game 2: South Florida (+14.5) @ Florida State
Pick: South Florida beats the spread
Comment: Just like with Miami, Penn State, Nebraska, and other powers of the past, people are always quick to pronounce the Seminoles “back.” After their impressive romp of BYU in Provo, Florida State is a huge favorite at home over instate “rival” South Florida. But there’s plenty of reason to be cautious. Last season the Noles opened up by wasting two FCS foes by a combined score of 115-7 and then lost their 3rd game at home to Wake Forest, 12-3. This year they lost the season opener to Miami, 38-34, at home. Then in week 2 they hosted Jacksonville State and got all that they could handle. This was no turnover fueled fluke, although they did turn the ball over 3 times. But Jacksonville State led in time of possession, tied the Noles with 15 first downs, and they were only out-gained 402-310. The Seminoles fell behind early, as Jax St. scored a TD but missed the extra point to go up 6-0. The Seminoles scored to take the lead 7-6 but Jacksonville State led 9-7 at the half. It was still 9-7 late in the game (and I mean late in the game). Jax State had already had a field goal blocked and they had a 2nd and 1 at the FSU 32 with time running out in the 4th but they ended up getting stopped on 3 straight plays. FSU still trailed by 2 when they got the ball back after a punt at their own 43 with only 2:51 to go. They managed to get into the end zone to take the lead with just 30 seconds remaining. FSU missed the extra point and Jax State had the ball at their own 43 with time left for a score but on the first play of the drive FSU got a sack and returned a fumble for a TD to put the game away. But the 19-9 score was one of the most misleading finals you will ever see. So yes, their huge win over BYU was great but they are not the Noles of old. South Florida has thus far played 3 patsies and has cruised to 3 easy wins. They are led by senior QB Matt Grothe and senior DE George Selvie. They are dangerous. They are 25-6 in their last 31 games in the state of Florida. FSU is just 6-9 in their last 15 home games against teams from BCS conferences. This is the first ever meeting between the two schools. I think this spread is way too big. USF will stay within 2 TD’s.

Game 3: Cal (-5.5) @ Oregon
Pick: Cal covers
Comment: Oregon is one of the toughest places to play in the Pac-10. The Ducks are 40-13 at home since the start of the 2001 season. Cal has struggled on the road, going just 4-10 in their last 14 road contests. However, this is a great Cal team and Oregon is way down this year. Plus, Cal has won 3 straight over Oregon and 4 of the last 5, including a win in their last trip to Eugene in 2007. Their only loss to Oregon in the last 5 came at Eugene in overtime in 2005. I like the Bears to win by a TD.

Game 4: Miami (-3) @ Virginia Tech
Pick: Miami covers
Comment: The Canes come in sky high off of wins over FSU and Georgia Tech. The Hokies are coming off of a miraculous win at home over Nebraska. They look very shaky right now. The Canes look anything but shaky. That could be a trap. And Miami has struggled on the road lately. They are just 6-11 in their last 17 road games and only 4-10 in their last 14 road games outside the state of Florida. VT has been dominant at Lane Stadium, going 54-9 at home since the start of the 01 season. They’ve won 10 straight at home and 14 of 15. They’ve won 4 of 6 against Miami but lost last year on the road, 16-14. Miami beat VT at Lane Stadium in 2005, winning a battle of top 5 teams, 27-7. I think Miami is the better team so I’m going with the Canes to win a close one.

Game 5: TCU (+3) @ Clemson
Pick: Clemson covers
Comment: Last year Utah went undefeated but in my opinion they were the 2nd best team in the Mountain West behind TCU. However, only 10 of the 22 starters on last year’s Horned Frog team remain. They won at UVA by 16 in their first game of the season but let’s be honest, that’s not saying much. This will be their 2nd trip to the east coast in 3 weeks. Clemson is 15-1 in their last 16 home games against non-ACC schools but we don’t know that much about this year’s Tigers squad yet. Fluky plays and poor officiating kept them from winning at GT in week 2 but they rebounded last week by waxing BC at home. I think Clemson will hold off TCU in a very competitive game.

Game 6: Fresno State (+16.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Fresno State beats the spread
Comment: The Bearcats are 17-3 in their last 20 home games. The Bulldogs are 7-7 in their last 14 road games against BCS teams with 4 of those losses coming by a total of 9 points. One thing to worry about is whether Fresno State will have the energy to get up for another big game as the underdog, having not been rewarded for their great efforts on the road against Wisconsin and at home against Boise State in the last couple of weeks. Last season Fresno opened the season with a 17 point win at Rutgers and a few weeks later they won at UCLA. I don’t see them getting embarrassed in this one and it’s a huge spread. The Bulldogs aren’t going to sneak up on Cinci but I think they can stay within 2 scores.

Game 7: Pittsburgh (+1) @ North Carolina State
Pick: Pittsburgh beats the spread
Comment: I really like Pittsburgh in this one. The Panthers are 7-1 in their last 8 road games, while NC State is just 18-19 at home since the start of the 2004 season. The Wolfpack handled FCS teams in the last couple of weeks but they opened the season with a 7-3 loss to South Carolina at home. I thought they’d pick up where they left off last season and be much improved this year but it hasn’t shown yet. Pitt should actually be a good team this year and I like them to win in Raleigh.

Game 8: Illinois (+14) @ Ohio State
Pick: Illinois beats the spread
Comment: It’s hard to know what to make of Illinois. They opened the season with a total disaster, getting whipped 37-9 in St. Louis by a Mizzu team that was supposed to be rebuilding. The Illini have been a bad road team this decade but you have to remember that they’ve been a very bad team for most of the decade. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as road dogs. Amazingly, they’ve actually won 3 of 4 in Columbus, including their last trip there in 07 when Ohio State was #1. The visitor has won 8 of the last 9 in this series. Last year Illinois out-gained the Buckeyes 455-354 but wound up losing 30-20. I think Ohio State will handle Illinois but not by 2 touchdowns.

Game 9: Iowa (+9.5) @ Penn State
Pick: Iowa beats the spread
Comment: Forget about revenge. That stuff will go out the window early in the 1st quarter. Penn State has opened the season playing their traditional schedule of cream puffs but they’ve been much less impressive than in recent years. They’ve yet to allow more than 7 points in any game but they’ve also yet to top 31 points scored in any game. Iowa was supposed to be solid this year and after miraculously surviving defeat at home to Northern Iowa in week 1 the Hawkeyes have gotten on track with solid wins over Iowa State and Arizona. We’ll see what they can do on the road, where they are just 4-10 in their last 14. I don’t think they’ll pull off another upset but I like the Hawkeyes to keep it within single digits.

Game 10: Southern Miss (+14) @ Kansas
Pick: Kansas covers
Comment: This actually is kind of a big game. The Golden Eagles were expected to challenge for a Conference USA title this season and they’ve opened 3-0 but they’ve been fairly unimpressive, winning home games by 7 over Central Florida and by just 3 over lowly Virginia. Kansas is also 3-0 and if they win this one they have a good chance of being 6-0 when they face Oklahoma at home on October 24th. Kansas is 25-4 in their last 29 at home and 19-10 ATS in their last 29 as home favorites. I think the Jayhawks will roll and knock out another BCS Buster hopeful.

Moneyline Special

North Carolina over Georgia Tech: The Heels are 2.5 point dogs on the road at Tech this weekend. Not much of an upset, I know, but I had to try really hard to find moneyline upsets that I truly believed in this week. This is a huge game for both teams. To take the next step UNC needs to start being able to win on the road. They were lucky to come away with a win in Connecticut a couple of weeks ago and that victory made the Heels just 6-16 in their last 22 road games. The Jackets have owned UNC, winning 9 of 11 over the Heels, but last season they got handed a 28-7 loss in Chapel Hill. Tech also needs this one badly, as they don’t want to be 1-2 in the ACC with games against FSU and VT coming up in October. There’s no real reason to pick UNC in this one but I just have a hunch that they will get it done.

Wyoming over UNLV: The Cowboys are 4.5 point underdogs at home this weekend against the Rebels. At first glance this pick might seem foolish. Wyoming has looked absolutely awful so far. They began the season with a lackluster 7 point victory over Weber State at home. After getting whipped by Texas at home, 41-10, they got shutout by Colorado in Boulder, 24-0, after the Buffs had been soundly beaten by Colorado State and Toledo. UNLV on the other hand, is 2-1 with a 2-point loss to Oregon State being their lone defeat. But you have to understand how horrible UNLV has been on the road in recent years. Folks, the Rebels are just 3-26 in their last 29 road contests. They beat Wyoming by 8 at home last season but prior to that they had lost 4 straight to the Cowboys. I like Wyoming to come up with a surprise win.