Thursday, September 3, 2009

The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 1 Betting Lines

Week 1 Betting Lines

If you ever visited the Horse Collar last year then you know that I make predictions each week of the college football season, picking against the spread in 10 games, and also picking a few underdogs straight up. It will be mostly the same this year. The only difference is that instead of picking games that I have a good feeling about, I’m going to try and pick the 10 most interesting games each week. I always use Covers.com for lines.

Week 1 Preview: Some people say that the opening week of the season is the best time to bet. Because there is so much unknown, particularly in college sports, some say that week 1 is the one time you can “beat” Vegas. Maybe this is true if you’re a wise guy but not for me. It’s not only the first week for handicappers and bookies; bettors are dealing with the unknown as well. I don’t have any inside information, so I actually feel more confident later in the year, when there’s less unknown.

Thursday

Game 1: Oregon (+3.5) @ Boise State
Pick: Boise State covers
Comment: I’m predicting Boise State to go undefeated in the regular season for the 3rd time in 4 years and I’m calling for Oregon to have their first losing season since 2004. The Broncos are 56-2 at home this decade. Last season the Broncos beat an injury riddled Ducks team in Oregon. The Ducks will be playing their first game under Chip Kelly and have only 9 returning starters.

Saturday

Game 2: Nevada (+14.5) @ Notre Dame
Pick: Nevada beats the spread
Comment: Those predicting ND to roll through an easy schedule all the way to a BCS game are not even thinking about this one. This has been an assumed win for the Irish all offseason. But Notre Dame was a 21 point favorite at home against San Diego State in last year’s opener and they ended up winning just 21-13. They trailed for much of the game before some fortunate breaks on fumbles turned things around. They were 3-0 against non-BCS teams last year, including a 49-21 drubbing of Hawaii in the aptly named Hawaii Bowl. But in 2007 the Irish were 0-2 against non-BCS teams. The Irish may be an improved team but Nevada is no pushover. The Wolf Pack are just 2-11 in their last 13 season openers and I don’t think they’ll pull off a shocker here but I think they’ll stay within 2 TD’s.

Game 3: Missouri (+6.5) vs. Illinois (at St. Louis)
Pick: Illinois covers
Comment: What a great idea starting up this series was! For the 3rd year in a row, these two geographical rivals will open the season playing indoors at the Edward Jones Dome. The last 2 have been shootouts, with Mizzu winning both by scores of 40-34 and 52-42. But this season the Tigers will be rebuilding. They have only 9 returning starters, they lose all-time leading passer Chase Daniel, they lose their top 3 receivers (including Jeremy Maclin and award winning TE Chase Coffman), and they lose 7 All-Big XII defensive players. Both coordinators are also gone after being in place the last 8 seasons. It could be a shootout again, as Illinois’ defense is still soft and their offense is still explosive, but this time I see the Illini coming out on top.

Game 4: Georgia (+5) @ Oklahoma State
Pick: Georgia beats the spread
Comment: This is a very tough opening week matchup for the relatively inexperienced Bulldawgs. Oklahoma State’s offense will be tough to stop and the Dawgs will be breaking in new starters at QB and RB. Still, Mark Richt’s teams have always played well on the road. And there’s a chance that injuries could hinder the Cowboys.

Game 5: BYU (+22) vs. Oklahoma (at Arlington)
Pick: BYU beats the spread
Comment: This game is actually being played in the brand new Cowboys Stadium, so with any luck it will feature numerous punts going off the superfluous digital big screen. I know Oklahoma is one of the true powers in college football but this is at a somewhat neutral site. If BYU is to be taking seriously as great team, they need to be able to keep it within 3 touchdowns, do they not?

Game 6: Virginia Tech (+6.5) vs. Alabama (at Atlanta)
Pick: Virginia Tech beats the spread
Comment: This has been the most highly anticipated opening week matchup, featuring two teams considered to be National Championship contenders. Bama announced their return to relevance in this game last season when they stunned an over hyped Clemson team in the first ever Chick-fil-et Classic at the Georgia Dome. I like Bama to win again but I think it’ll be a hard fought victory. The last minute confusion over the status of Julio Jones and Mark Ingram will have no impact after kickoff.

Game 7: Maryland (+21) @ Cal
Pick: Cal covers
Comment: That does look like a big spread at first glance. However, this really is a mismatch. The visiting team is going down and the home team is going up and that’s not normally a recipe for a nail biter, especially when one team is traveling to the other coast. Last year the Terps had a huge advantage, as Cal had to travel from Berkley to College Park for an early game, and by the time the Bears woke up they were down big. They fought back to make it close but lost 35-27 in a game they came in favored by 14. This time Cal has the advantage and Maryland is in complete rebuilding mode with only 9 returning starters and just 56% lettermen back. Cal has 15 returning starters and their biggest strengths (offensive and defensive line) matchup against Maryland’s biggest weaknesses (offensive and defensive line).

Sunday

Game 8: Mississippi (-17) @ Memphis
Pick: Memphis beats the spread
Comment: These rivals are just 85 miles apart but the Rebels lead the series 46-10-2. They’ve won the last 4 and they’re 12-1 in their last 13 openers. But Ole Miss is just 3-8-1 against the spread as a road favorite this decade. The Tigers are 12-7 ATS as home dogs this decade.

Game 9: Colorado State (+10) @ Colorado
Pick: Colorado State beats the spread
Comment: The Buffs lead the all-time series 59-20-2 but recently these games have been very close. Prior to last season’s 21 point win by Colorado, the previous 6 games had been decided by a total of 25 points and none of those games was decided by more than 7. After 3 years at a neutral site, the rivalry game will be played in Boulder this season, but I’m betting on another tight contest.

Monday

Game 10: Cincinnati (+5) @ Rutgers
Pick: Cincinnati beats the spread
Comment: Rutgers is a popular pick to win the Big East this year, not because they are exceptionally strong, but because no one in the Big East looks that great and they have a very, very favorable schedule. The Knights will be breaking in a QB with 8 career pass attempts. The Bearcats will have an almost completely new defense. It should be a close game.

Moneyline Specials

I’m going to try and be a bit more daring with moneyline upsets this year.

Ohio over Connecticut: The Bobcats are 3.5 point dogs at home against UConn. I have the Huskies falling short of a 3rd straight bowl game this season, while I have Ohio winning 10 games. The Huskies are 34-27 over the last 5 years but only 8-17 on the road. Ohio showed their potential with their near upset of Ohio State on the road early last season.

Miami over Florida State: The Canes are 6.5 point dogs on the road against their instate rivals. This game was once one of the highlights of every college football season but its importance and quality of play has been greatly reduced in recent times. However, despite being at times very difficult to watch, these games have been ridiculously close over the years. Florida State may be the more talented team but they are a bit inexperienced. Miami, on the other hand, is quite experienced and will be kicking off their 3rd year under Randy Shannon. While FSU has a top notch offensive line and 8 starters back on that side of the ball, they have many holes to fill on defense. Miami’s offense has been a question mark during Shannon’s tenure but the Canes will be a stout defensive team. FSU has won 3 of the last 4 in this series and even though this one is at Doak Campbell Stadium I think it’s Miami’s turn this year.

No comments: