The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 1 Betting Lines

Even though we don’t have much to go on in the opening week, Week 1 seems like the easiest because so many things look black and white heading into the season. But by next week everything will be gray.

Thursday Night’s Game

Tennessee (+6) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Titans beat the spread.
Comment: I like this one to start off the season. Should be a tough, hard hitting, defensive battle. I suppose Kerry Collins will have to get it done against the Steeler defense in order for the Titans to win and that probably won’t happen but I think it’ll be a close game. These teams are well matched, although the absence of Albert Haynesworth figures to be tough for Tennessee to make up for.

Sunday’s Early Games

Miami (+4) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons win but Dolphins beat the spread.
Comment: An interesting matchup of the two most surprising teams from a year ago. I’m curious to see how the Falcons will play in game 1 of year 2 of the Mike Smith-Matt Ryan era. I’m equally curious to see what the atmosphere at the Georgia Dome is like for the season opener following one of the most successful seasons in team history.

Kansas City (+13) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover.
Comment: I can’t imagine the Chiefs being anything but horrible and it looks like they won’t even have Matt Cassel for this one. The Ravens should have one of the top defenses in the NFL again this year. The Ravens are 36-16-2 ATS as home favorites this decade.

Philadelphia (-1) @ Carolina
Pick: Eagles cover.
Comment: This spread seems to be a reflection of the mistrust that fans have in general for the Philadelphia Eagles, who have a knack for looking both Super Bowl bound and headed for rebuilding at different times during the same season. The Eagles ought to win this game for sure. They’re usually one of the better road teams in the NFL.

Denver (+4) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Bengals win but Broncos beat the spread.
Comment: Now we will begin to see whether the next phase in the Josh McDaniel era in Denver is as much of a wreck as the first phase. The Bengals aren’t all that much better but they should have Carson Palmer back under center. The Broncos, meanwhile, will have Kyle Orton under center.

Minnesota (-4) @ Cleveland
Pick: Vikings cover.
Comment: A strange opening matchup. Mysterious but obvious starting quarterback appointees abound in this game. Favre vs. the Manidiot. Quinn (Now I’m Done) vs. Favre (Now I’m Done too…or wait, no I’m not…yeah, I am…no I’ll play but not until after training camp). The second edition of post-Packer Favre playing in front of the second edition of the Dawg Pound. Weirdness, my friends.

New York Jets (+4.5) @ Houston
Pick: Texans cover.
Comment: Man, I would love to see Buddy Ryan’s kid get his bottom spanked in week 1. The Texans are expected to take that next step forward this year. They’ve been great at home the last two years, going 12-4 at Reliant Stadium, with losses only to the Colts (X2), Ravens, and Titans. The Jets will have a QB with almost zero experience. The Texans should roll as long as they can keep Matt Schaub in the game.

Jacksonville (+7) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Jags beat the spread.
Comment: This seems like a big spread for a Colts team with coaching changes across the board. Last season the Colts lost their first two home games at brand new Lucas Oil Stadium—including a week 3 loss to the Jags—before finishing the year winning their last 6 at home. But they were just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite last season and the Jags have got to be better this year.

Detroit (+13) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover.
Comment: I don’t know what Detroit’s plan at QB is going to be but the Saints should be able to put up big numbers against the Lions defense. A loss would be 18 straight for Detroit. Stunningly, the Lions were just 1-7 ATS as home underdogs last season.

Dallas (-6) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Cowboys cover.
Comment: I don’t know what to expect from the Bucs because they have gone through so many changes since last season. The Boys absolutely must get off to a good start this year, just as they have the last 2 seasons, starting off 5-0 in 07, and 3-0 last year.

Sunday’s Late Games

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Cards win but Niners beat the spread.
Comment: If things hold true to form, the Cardinals will struggle in the year following a loss in the Super Bowl. The Cards are 14-4 at home over the last 2 years (including the playoffs); the Niners are 23-49 on the road this decade.

Washington (+6.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants win but Skins beat the spread.
Comment: This spread seems a bit big. What difference will Haynesworth make against New York’s ground game? Will the Redskins be able to move the ball offensively? This should be a good one. I think the Skins will definitely keep it within 6 or less and could win it.

St. Louis (+9) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks win but Rams beat the spread.
Comment: I know Seattle is a tough place to play and I realize that Hasselbeck is healthy, but Vegas must think the Rams seriously suck. The Lams are 3-13 on the road over the last 2 years, while the Seahawks have won 8 straight over St. Louis.


Sunday Night’s Game

Chicago (+3.5) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers win but Bears beat the spread.
Comment: A very intriguing matchup for the first Sunday night of the 2009 season. The Packers really need to regain their homefield edge if they want to compete for the division title. We’ll find out if Jay Cutler is more winner or whiner.

Monday Night’s Games

Buffalo (+10.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: Lots of defensive changes but it shouldn’t matter against the Bills, who the Pats have won 11 straight against. I don’t see T.O. being much of a factor. Hopefully he’ll get upset and start storming around having a tantrum. Brady and Moss and co. should have a big day.

San Diego (-9) @ Oakland
Pick: Chargers cover.
Comment: Is it just me or is this the safest bet of week 1? I would take SD -21. The Chargers have won 11 in a row over the Raiders and covered in 10 of 11.