The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 1 Power Rankings

Power Rankings After Week 1

1. Pittsburgh 1-0 (2nd)
2. New York Giants 1-0 (5th)
3. New England 1-0 (1st)
4. Philadelphia 1-0 (4th)
5. San Diego 1-0 (3rd)
6. Minnesota 1-0 (6th)
7. Tennessee 0-1 (7th)
8. Indianapolis 1-0 (8th)
9. Atlanta 1-0 (11th)
10. Washington 0-1 (9th)
11. Dallas 1-0 (13th)
12. Green Bay 1-0 (15th)
13. Baltimore 1-0 (12th)
14. New Orleans 1-0 (16th)
15. Arizona 0-1 (10th)
16. Houston 0-1 (14th)
17. New York Jets 1-0 (19th)
18. San Francisco 1-0 (23rd)
19. Buffalo 0-1 (20th)
20. Seattle 1-0 (21st)
21. Carolina 0-1 (17th)
22. Miami 0-1 (22nd)
23. Jacksonville 0-1 (27th)
24. Oakland 0-1 (28th)
25. Chicago 0-1 (18th)
26. Cincinnati 0-1 (24th)
27. Denver 1-0 (29th)
28. Cleveland 0-1 (25th)
29. Tampa Bay 0-1 (26th)
30. Kansas City 0-1 (32nd)
31. Detroit 0-1 (30th)
32. St. Louis 0-1 (31st)

-Preseason ranking in parenthesis;

Explanation: If you read the Horse Collar last year then you are familiar with my NFL power rankings. The difference this season is that I’m going to rank all 32 teams each week. Last season I ranked all 32 teams in the preseason and then had a top 8 that I updated weekly during the season. This year I’m just carrying my preseason power rankings into the season and I’m going to do a full 32-team ranking each week. The main difference between my NFL power rankings and my college football power rankings is that while I only take season ending injuries into account for my CFB rankings, for NFL teams I consider overall health at the moment. Something you will probably notice is that compared to my CFB rankings I’m going to be quicker to move teams up and down in my NFL rankings based on wins and losses from week to week. This is because the NFL is structured with parity in mind. The salary cap, the draft and schedule structure, and other things keep teams from becoming much better or much worse than the average team. It’s easier to judge wins and losses in the NFL because more is known about each team and each player. The variables that exist in the college game are much fewer and easier to identify in the NFL. Finally, it’s virtually impossible to watch as much as 10 minutes of even half of the college football games in a particular week. Contrary wise, it’s very easy to watch a good bit of every single NFL game during a particular season. The main point, is that I’m going to be more confident in moving teams up and down from week to week in my NFL rankings than I am in my CFB rankings.

Having said that, I tried pretty hard not to overreact to the results of week 1. That’s much easier said than done, even though we all know that week 1 of the NFL season is notoriously misleading. Most of the time it’s not the 12-win teams or the 12-loss teams that trigger false readings in week 1, although there are certainly exceptions. But it’s more often the teams that win between 6 and 10 games that can steer people the wrong way with a week 1 performance.

My top 5 is made up of the same teams that were in my top 5 in the preseason but they are ranked differently after 1 week. To begin with, I have a new #1 team. Despite losing Troy Polamalu for perhaps 8 weeks, the Steelers moved up a spot to #1 in my rankings, taking the place of the Patriots. The Steelers have a dominant defense even with out Polamalu and in their overtime win over Tennessee in the opener they looked just like the team that won the Super Bowl in February. I moved the Giants up 3 spots from 5th to 2nd after their convincing win over the Red Skins. The Patriots fell to 3rd in my rankings and I think much less of them now than I did 3 weeks ago. Not only did they trade away Richard Seymour, they lost Jared Mayo for 2 months in the opener, and their defense was exposed by the Bills on Monday night. The offense too looked out of sight and the offensive line again looked mediocre. I don’t feel confident that they can run the ball or stop the run. But they do know how to win. The Eagles would have been my #2 or #3 team if they hadn’t lost Donovan McNabb with a broken rib and lost Shaun Andrews for the season. Because of those reasons I kept them 4th. The defense looked great in their first game since the death of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson and they did sign Jeff Garcia but McNabb has to be healthy for them to be an elite team. I dropped the Chargers down a couple of spots to 5th after their lack luster win in Oakland. LT was hurt again and they also suffered some injuries on the O-line.

The second half of my top 5 was also relatively unchanged. Of the 5 teams ranked 6-10 in my preseason rankings, 4 were still there after week 1. Spots 6-8 stayed the same. The Falcons were the new team in my top 10 this week, coming in at #9 after being 11th in my preseason rankings. I dropped the Skins from 9th to 10th after they struggled offensively in a loss to the Giants. The only team to drop out of my top 10 was my preseason #10 team, the Cardinals. The Cards plummeted 5 spots to 15th after a loss at home to the Niners. Both Steve Breaston and Anquan Boldin are battling injuries. Also, Edgerrin James is gone now, and while Edge was worthless in the regular season last year, it was his reemergence during the postseason that took the Cards from being playoff imposters to being ahead in the Super Bowl with seconds to play.

But the Cardinals did not take the biggest plunge in my rankings in the first week. That honor went to the Bears, who dropped 7 spots in my rankings from 18th to 25th. The Chicago Bears endured one of the most disastrous opening games in recent memory. To begin with, the limitations of the offense were abundantly clear. Everyone knew that Jay Cutler wasn’t going to be able to turn the Bears into the 2001 Rams, but after watching the Bears on Sunday night I’m not even sure the Bears offense will be as good as last season. The lack of talent at receiver was obvious and Cutler is going to find out what it’s like to play without a stockpile of weapons. And with more emphasis and focus going to getting the passing game off the ground, the Bears got away from the only thing that worked for them last season, which was giving the ball to Matt Forte. Cutler’s dismal performance; the turnovers; the blown coverages; the awful decisions by coaches and players; the penalties; all of these things made the heartbreaking defeat even more sickening for Bears fans. But none of that was as bad as the news that came the next day, when it was learned that the face of the team and the leader of the defense, Brian Urlacher, was lost for the season. The Bears have been only a decent defensive team in the last few years and without Urlacher they won’t even be that. I believe the fall from decency to the bottom of the League will come swift and hard for the Bears.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Niners made the biggest jump in my rankings, rising 5 spots from 23rd to 18th. It’s not just the win at Arizona that led to their climb up the rankings. San Fran was a team I thought might be better than expected this season and their win over the Cards gave me more confidence that they will be. The biggest question mark is at quarterback, but Shaun Hill looked okay in the opener.

The final 3 spots in my power rankings were made up of the same 3 teams from my preseason rankings but each team was in a different spot. The Kansas City Chiefs surprised me more than almost any team in the League in week 1. Without Matt Cassel they played the Ravens very tough on the road before eventually being put away. I moved them out of last and up 2 spots to 30th. I dropped the Lions from 30th to 31st after they got violated by Drew Brees and the Saints. I really expect Matt Stafford to have the same sort of problems he had in week 1 for the entire season. The new #32 team in my week 1 rankings is the St. Louis Rams, who got whipped 28-0 by the Seahawks. I dropped them down 2 spots from 30th, as they looked like easily the worst team in football. They were the worst team last year as well, although the Lions stole their thunder by losing all 16 games.

The 0-1 team highest in my rankings is Tennessee, who lost in overtime to the defending champion Steelers on the road. Still, 12 of the top 14 teams in my power rankings are 1-0. The lowest ranked 1-0 team is the Denver Broncos, who looked absolutely awful against the Bengals and won on a tipped pass that was caught by an unintended receiver for an 83 yard TD with a less than a minute to play. I actually have the Bengals ranked 1 spot higher than the Broncos. Both the Patriots and Chargers fell 2 spots in my rankings despite winning in week 1. The Jags and Raiders both climbed 4 spots despite losing in week 1.