The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 2 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-5); Moneyline Upsets (1-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (5-5); Moneyline Upsets (1-1)

Week 1 Review: I can’t complain about a 5-5 opening week. I really didn’t bomb on anything except Illinois -6.5 over Missouri (they lost by 28).

Week 2 Preview: There aren’t that many great games to pick from this week. I’m trying to use the new information that we all got last weekend, while at the same time not “over correcting” and completely changing what I thought going into the season.

Saturday

Game 1: East Carolina (+6.5) @ West Virginia
Pick: East Carolina beats the spread
Comment: Neither team was particularly dominant against FCS foes in week 1. West Virginia has just not been the same since Coach Rod left. I’m not a big believer in betting “trends.” In fact, even when I do a bunch of research, I normally end up ignoring it and just going with my gut. But they are useful as fillers between “I think this” and “I think that.” For what it’s worth, East Carolina is 13-3 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2005 season.

Game 2: UCLA (+9) @ Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee covers
Comment: This one is a bit scary because you still don’t know what to make of Kiffin’s Vols but when you think about it 9 points isn’t that big of a number. In UCLA’s last 2 non-conference road games—against Utah in 07 and last year against BYU—the Bruins lost by a combined score of 103-6. They are 3-14 in non-home games since the start of the 06 season.

Game 3: South Carolina (+7.5) @ Georgia
Pick: South Carolina beats the spread
Comment: I don’t really get this spread. The Dawgs are coming off of a 10 point scoring effort against a here-to-for porous Oklahoma State defense. South Carolina opened the season by holding Russell Wilson and NC State to 3 points in Raleigh. South Carolina held the Georgia offense of Matt Stafford, Knowshon Moreno, and Mohammad Massaquoi to 1 offensive TD in 8 quarters over the last two years. Remember, those Dawgs are all gone now, and Joe Cox and Richard Samuel did not look very impressive in last week’s opener. The Dawgs are 6-2 against SC under Mark Richt, but both losses have come at home. 6 of the 8 UGA-SC battles during Richt’s tenure at UGA have been decided by 7 points or less. The Dawgs have scored 18 points or less in 7 of their last 9 against SC and the Gamecocks have scored 16 or less in their last 8 against Georgia. The Dawgs have been favorites in the last 5 and have gone 1-3-1 ATS. It just doesn’t make sense that the Dawgs would win this one by more than a TD.

Game 4: USC (-6.5) @ Ohio State
Pick: USC covers
Comment: I know the season is only a week old but so far it seems like the same old Trojans and the same old Buckeyes. I know the game is in Columbus; I know USC has a true freshman at QB; I know their entire defense left for the NFL. I’ll still take the Trojans to outplay the Buckeyes by double digits. And as far as what Terrelle Pryor said…oh, well…never mind.

Game 5: Iowa (-6.5) @ Iowa State
Pick: Iowa State beats the spread
Comment: I know, I know: not the most exciting matchup. But there aren’t that many great games this weekend. And by all rights Iowa should have suffered the most embarrassing loss of the opening weekend. The Hawkeyes came into the year looking to build on last year’s strong finish, during which they won their last 4 games, including an upset of #3 and previously unbeaten Penn State; a 55-0 win at Minnesota; and a 31-10 thrashing of South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. Iowa garnered a #22 ranking in the preseason AP but they were more than lucky to escape with a win over Northern Iowa of the FCS at home in last week’s opener. They got outplayed all day, trailing 13-3 in the 2nd half, and being out-gained on the day by the Panthers. Trailing 17-16, Northern Iowa had a 40-yard field goal try for the win with 7 seconds left but the Hawkeyes blocked it. However, Northern Iowa had kicked on 1st down, and they recovered the ball behind the line of scrimmage with 1 second left. They had time for a second attempt but once again the try was blocked, as the FCS team acted the way you’d expect an FCS team would in that sort of situation against an in-state rival from the Big Ten. So the Hawkeyes escaped with a 1-point win and now they go on the road to face their real instate rival Iowa State. The Cyclones have one of my least favorite team nicknames in all of college football but they managed to snap a 10 game losing last week by beating North Dakota State of the FCS, 34-17 at home. Even in the best of Kirk Ferentz’ 10 seasons in Iowa, the Cyclones have been an annual early season pest for the Hawkeyes. Iowa State has won 7 of the last 11 between these two teams, holding the Hawkeyes to 17 points or less in 8 of the last 11. While this rivalry has been fairly even in the head to head department over the last decade, with Iowa State actually holding the upper hand, Iowa has clearly been the better program during that time. In fact, Iowa has been favored in the last 7 meetings between these two teams, yet the Cyclones are 3-4 straight up in those games, and 6-1 ATS! The visitor has lost 5 straight in this series, and I like Iowa State to keep it close again.

Game 6: North Carolina (-4) @ Connecticut
Pick: North Carolina covers
Comment: I have bad luck with UConn and the Huskies screwed me over again last week by beating Ohio on the road. I still think they’re cruising for a bruising this year. The ACC didn’t look so hot last week but I like Carolina. Last season the Heels smacked Connecticut by 26 but that was in Chapel Hill. UNC is just 13-31 on the road since 2001, while the Huskies are 11-2 at home over the last two years. Still, I like the Heels to win by a TD in Storrs—wherever that is.

Game 7: Stanford (+3) @ Wake Forrest
Pick: Wake Forrest covers
Comment: I could go either way here. I think Stanford will take another step forward this year in Jim Harbaugh’s 3rd season. I believe Wake Forrest takes another step back this year in the 3rd season following the 11-3 ACC Championship year. Last week Stanford won easily on the road over Washington State, while Wake fell at home to Baylor. However, Washington State is still as bad as a BCS conference team can be, and Stanford is just 5-14 on the road since the start of the 06 season. They are just 2-13 on the road against anyone other than Washington or Wazu during that time. Even with last week’s loss to Baylor at home, the Deacons are still 12-4 in non-road games since the start of the 07 season. I’ll take Wake to cover, although it could go either way. Like I said, there just aren’t many games to pick from this week.

Game 8: Fresno State +8.5 @ Wisconsin
Pick: Fresno State beats the spread
Comment: Wisconsin often struggles in early season contests, while the Bulldogs often play their best against establishment foes from BCS conferences. This one is at Camp Randall but it’s early, and Wisconsin is actually well below .500 ATS as a home favorite this decade. Fresno is 17-13 ATS as a road dog this decade. I think they’ll stay within a TD of the Badgers.

Game 9: TCU (-10.5) @ Virginia
Pick: TCU covers
Comment: It’s going to take yet another Al Groh miracle to turn this season into anything other than garbage. In 2007, UVA opened the season with a 23-3 loss to Wyoming, then won 7 straight and 9 of 10. Last year, Virginia lost by 45 at home in the opener; by 35 to Connecticut in game 3; and then by 28 to Duke a week later. They then beat 4 straight bowl teams and nearly beat a 5th, losing in OT to Miami to start a 4 game slide to end the year. After nearly a decade of mediocrity, the low point of the Groh era (so far) came last Saturday when the Cavaliers turned the ball over 7 times, gained just 268 yards, and lost 26-14 at home to FCS foe William and Mary. This will be the season opener for TCU. The Horned Frog defense should dominate.

Game 10: BYU (-17.5) @ Tulane
Pick: BYU covers
Comment: I know a lot of people will be paying extra attention to BYU this week to see how they react to everything that their upset over Oklahoma has brought about. I’m curious too; but I don’t see a letup coming against the Green Wave or whatever. Tulane lost 37-13 to Tulsa at home last week and BYU should be able to win by an even more lopsided score.

Moneyline Special

Clemson over Georgia Tech: The Tigers are 5 point dogs on the road against Tech this Thursday night. This one has turned into one of the better rivalries in the ACC. 10 of the last 13 have been decided by 5 points or less. Tech is now 17-5 at home since the start of the 2006 season and they were 4-1 ATS as home favorites last year. They have won 4 of 5 in this series. But I’ve felt all along that Clemson would surprise people this year and that Tech would be better than last year but would have a worse record due to bad luck and a tough schedule. And the C.J. Spiller injury scare looks to be nothing to worry about.

Michigan over Notre Dame: Michigan is a 3.5 point underdog at home against ND this weekend. I’ll admit, I did not think Notre Dame would cream Nevada without breaking a sweat. But I’m sticking by my preseason prediction that Michigan’s rebound season will be bigger than Notre Dame’s. 5 of the last 7 in this series have been upsets. If you take away last year’s disastrous season, Michigan is still 47-8 at home this decade. I like the Wolverines to come out on top in this very meaningful early season game.