The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 2 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (10-6); Straight Up (13-3)
Season: Vs. Spread (10-6); Straight Up (13-3)

Week 1 Review: This was one of the best weeks I’ve ever had. Going into the Sunday night game I was 10-3 ATS and straight up. I lost all 3 night games ATS but won all 3 straight up. I had a few bad picks, like St. Louis +9 (they lost by 28), Houston -4.5 (they lost by 17), and Patriots -10.5 (they trailed by 11 with 2 and a half minutes left) but it was a great week for me.

Week 2 Preview: I’d really like to put up another solid week to convince myself that it’s not just dumb luck. In the 2nd week you want to use the new info you have without overreacting. It could be a rough week for me, as I’m taking 4 road favorites to cover.

Sunday’s Early Games

Carolina (+6.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons win but Panthers beat the spread.
Comment: As a loyal and life long Falcons fan, I am terrified by this game. Everybody is down on the Panthers, while everyone in Atlanta was pleasantly surprised by the way the Falcons’ defense played in their opening week win over Miami. But the Panthers have come into Atlanta under similar circumstances in the past and gotten a win. Atlanta really didn’t get a good game out of Matt Ryan or Michael Turner last week and they still had enough offense. While I’d like to think that Atlanta’s defensive performance in week 1 will be typical of the 2009 season, I don’t believe that is the case. It would seem to me that the huge question mark for Atlanta’s defense is pass defense. Well, Miami isn’t a team apt to exploit that weakness. Remember, they’re the guys who were so desperate they came up with that Wildcat thing which never works. Also, Miami had unimaginably good luck with turnovers last season and there was no way that would happen again this year. The Falcons can’t count on getting 3 or 4 turnovers a game. On the other hand, if Jake Delhomme could figure out how to limit himself to 2 or 3 turnovers again instead of 10 of 15, the Panthers would no doubt be a much better team than they showed last week. I think the Falcons will win it but it’ll be close.

St. Louis (+10) @ Washington
Pick: Redskins cover.
Comment: I’ve got bad memories from this game last year. The Rams’ 19-17 win at Washington in week 6 last season was probably the most inexplicable outcome of 2009. It ruined my “Elimination” entry just 6 weeks into the season. This time I once again can’t imagine the Redskins figuring out a way to lose to the Lams. Obviously it is possible but I honestly think the spread should be more like 14 points.

Houston (+6.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Texans beat the spread.
Comment: I’m not jumping off the Texans bandwagon just yet, although I will admit that outside of having a slew of injuries last week couldn’t have gone much worse for Houston believers. Houston is just 6-26 on the road since the start of the 2005 season and they’ve lost 4 in a row in Tennessee. I think they’ll come out of this game 0-2 but I think it’ll be a close game.

New Orleans (+1) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover.
Comment: Clearly this is a tough game to call because of the Eagles’ uncertain QB situation. It’ll be interesting to see how successful Philly’s defense is at holding down the New Orleans passing attack. I like the Eagles to win even without McNabb.

New England (-3.5) @ New York Jets
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: The Jets dominated the Texans on the road, while the Patriots should have lost at home to Buffalo. Still, I look for Brady and co. to jam a bunch of points in Rex Ryan’s mouth, and I think we can assume that Ryan will then greedily eat them.

Oakland (+3) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover.
Comment: Oakland’s 23-8 win at Arrowhead in week 2 last season was actually a total stunner, as the Chiefs had hung in at New England the week before while the Raiders had been embarrassed by the Chargers. The Raiders are 9-39 on the road since the start of the 2003 season. The Chiefs once had perhaps the biggest homefield advantage in the NFL but lately it hasn’t mattered much where they’ve played. The Chiefs are just 3-13 at home since the start of the 2007 season. Both teams were better than expected in opening weekend losses. Something has to give and I’m just going to take the Chiefs to win it by 4 or so.

Arizona (+3) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags cover.
Comment: I thought the Cards would be able to avoid the Bride’s Maid Slump but I’m not so sure anymore. I expect the Jags to be better this season but it doesn’t seem like many in Jacksonville will notice. The Cards are still not at there best on the east coast. I’ll take the Jags to win by 5 or 6.

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover.
Comment: Cincinnati’s offense looked awful last week and Green Bay shouldn’t have any trouble scoring points. I look for a blowout.

Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Vikings cover.
Comment: Over the last few years the Vikings have been known to play down to their competition. Last season they won their 2 games against the Lions by a combined 6 points and could easily have been swept by the winless Lions. But this year Brett Favre is the QB instead of Tavaris Jackson or Gus Frerotte. Matt Stafford looked like a rookie QB last week. I like the Vikes to win by double digits.

Sunday’s Late Games

Tampa Bay (+5) @ Buffalo
Pick: Bills win but Bucs beat the spread.
Comment: Last week’s collapse by the Bills against the Pats was similar to losses to the Jets late last season and the Cowboys on Monday night in 07. I think they’ll come back to beat the Bucs this week at home but I think it’ll be close.

Seattle (+1) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners cover.
Comment: Both teams won last week and I think they are both better than they were a season ago. Seattle is a little banged up and San Fran is at home so I’ll take the Niners to win a close one.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Chicago
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: I would have thought this spread would be bigger. I know the Steelers are on the road and without Troy Polamalu but Chicago looked horrible last week and they don’t have Brian Urlacher. Maybe the fact that Pittsburgh’s defense is so dominant will force Jay Cutler to realize that he has to take care of the ball. Even still, I like the Steelers to win by at least a touchdown.

Cleveland (+3) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos cover.
Comment: Well the key to this game will be…zzzzz…oh, sorry—just got so sleepy there all of the sudden. I’ll take Josh McDaniels to win the battle of former Belichickians.

Baltimore (+3) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers cover.
Comment: Last week’s games left me wondering a bit about both of these teams. Baltimore gave up 24 points to Kansas City and the Chargers gave up 20 points to the Raiders. San Diego has never seemed to have that sense of urgency during the last few years. Baltimore’s defense is a year older and you can’t expect Joe Flacco to throw for 300 yards every week. The Chargers are at home and they should be able to win this game but you never know what you’re gonna get with them.

Sunday Night’s Game

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas
Pick: Giants pull off the upset.
Comment: I have to chalk this line up to Dallas always been slightly overrated, even from week to week. Why should they be favored in this game? I don’t see how their homefield advantage will be any greater just because they’re playing in front of a million people. They might be jacked up to play their first game at the new stadium but this is a rivalry game so energy will be high regardless. The Giants are 14-4 in their last 18 regular season road games. They’re 22-10-1 ATS since the start of the 07 season. Dallas won by 13 last week but they gave up a lot of yards and 21 points to a rebuilding Tampa Bay team. I think the Giants will spoil Jerry Jones’ big night.

Monday Night’s Game

Indianapolis (-3) @ Miami
Pick: Colts cover.
Comment: Miami’s 2nd season under Tony Sparano got off to a rough start last Sunday. Manning and the Colts haven’t faced the Fins since 2006. But the Colts are one of the top road teams in the game. They are a sparkling 48-24 in regular season road games this decade. Miami usually plays well at home and in night games. Maybe they will keep it close but I think this year is going to be a lot tougher for the Dolphins than last year.