2009 NFL Predictions
o Division champions are in bold italics; wild card teams are in bold; non-playoff teams with winning records are in italics.
o Teams with identical records are placed in order based on NFL tie-breaking procedures.
o Playoff teams are seeded based on NFL seeding and tie-breaking procedures. Each team is numbered in order of where I think they will finish in conference playoff standings. Playoff positions are to the right of each team in regular font within these little things: {#}.
o Team records are listed in regular font: #-#.
o I also rank each team from 1 to 32 and team rankings are listed to the right of each team in bold parentheses: (#); rankings are based on how I think each team compares with the rest of the league, without taking into consideration conference, division, or schedule; rankings do not indicate where I think they will finish in the standings.
o I also rank each division in the league from 1-8 in three different ways: Power Rank is based on the strength of the top two teams in the division; Depth Rank is based on the strength of the bottom two teams in the division; Overall Rank is based on the strength of all four teams in the division. Division rankings are in parenthesis to right of each division, along with number of teams with winning record; number of teams with 11 or more wins; and number of teams with 11 or more losses.
AFC
East [Power Rank: #3; Depth Rank: #3; Overall Rank: #3; (Winning Teams: 1); (11 Win Teams: 1); (11 Loss Teams: 1)]
1. New England 14-2 {2} (1)
2. New York Jets 8-8 {8} (19)
3. Buffalo 7-9 {9} (20)
4. Miami 5-11 {13} (22)
North [Power Rank: #2; Depth Rank: #6; Overall Rank: #4; (Winning Teams: 2); (11 Win Teams: 1); (11 Loss Teams: 0)]
1. Pittsburgh 15-1 {1} (2)
2. Baltimore 9-7 {7} (12)
4. Cleveland 6-10 {11} (25)
South [Power Rank: #4; Depth Rank: #2; Overall Rank: #2; (Winning Teams: 3); (11 Win Teams: 0); (11 Loss Teams: 0)]
1. Tennessee 10-6 {4} (7)
2. Houston 10-6 {5} (14)
3. Indianapolis 10-6 {6} (8)
4. Jacksonville 6-10 {12} (27)
West [Power Rank: #8; Depth Rank: #8; Overall Rank: #8; (Winning Teams: 1); (11 Win Teams: 1); (11 Loss Teams: 3)]
1. San Diego 12-4 {3} (3)
2. Denver 4-12 {14} (29)
3. Oakland 4-12 {15} (28)
4. Kansas City 2-14 {16} (32)
NFC
East [Power Rank: #1; Depth Rank: #1; Overall Rank: #1; (Winning Teams: 4); (11 Win Teams: 1); (11 Loss Teams: 0)]
1. Philadelphia 11-5 {1} (4)
2. New York Giants 10-6 {6} (5)
3. Washington 10-6 {7} (9)
4. Dallas 9-7 {8} (13)
North [Power Rank: #5; Depth Rank: #5; Overall Rank: #5; (Winning Teams: 2); (11 Win Teams: 1); (11 Loss Teams: 1)]
1. Minnesota 11-5 {2} (6)
2. Green Bay 10-6 {5} (15)
3. Chicago 7-9 {11} (18)
4. Detroit 3-13 {15} (30)
South [Power Rank: #6; Depth Rank: #4; Overall Rank: #6; (Winning Teams: 1); (11 Win Teams: 0); (11 Loss Teams: 1)]
1. Atlanta 9-7 {4} (11)
2. New Orleans 8-8 {9} (16)
3. Carolina 7-9 {12} (17)
4. Tampa Bay 5-11 {14} (26)
West [Power Rank: #7; Depth Rank: #7; Overall Rank: #7; (Winning Teams: 1); (11 Win Teams: 0); (11 Loss Teams: 1)]
1. Arizona 10-6 {3} (10)
2. Seattle 8-8 {10} (21)
3. San Francisco 6-10 {13} (23)
4. St. Louis 3-13 {16} (31)
NFL Playoffs
AFC Wild Card Round
#3 San Diego over #6 Indianapolis
#4 Tennessee over #5 Houston
AFC Divisional Round
#1 Pittsburgh over #4 Tennessee
#2 New England over #3 San Diego
AFC Championship Game
#2 New England over #1 Pittsburgh
NFC Wild Card Round
#6 New York Giants over #3 Arizona
#4 Atlanta over #5 Green Bay
NFC Divisional Round
#1 Philadelphia over #6 New York Giants
#2 Minnesota over #4 Atlanta
NFC Championship Game
#1 Philadelphia over #2 Minnesota
Super Bowl XLIV
#2 New England over #1 Philadelphia
Division/Conference/Super Bowl Winners
AFC East: New England
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC South: Tennessee
AFC West: San Diego
NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC North: Minnesota
NFC South: Atlanta
NFC West: Arizona
AFC Champion: New England
NFC Champion: Philadelphia
Super Bowl Champion: New England
Conference Power Rankings
1. NFC East
2. AFC North
3. AFC East
4. AFC South
5. NFC North
6. NFC South
7. NFC West
8. AFC West
Conference Depth Rankings
1. NFC East
2. AFC South
3. AFC East
4. NFC South
5. NFC North
6. AFC North
7. NFC West
8. AFC West
Overall Conference Rankings
1. NFC East
2. AFC South
3. AFC East
4. AFC North
5. NFC North
6. NFC South
7. NFC West
8. AFC West
Awards and Honors
Super Bowl XLIV MVP: Tom Brady-QB-New England
AP NFL Coach of the Year: Mike McCarthy-Green Bay
AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year: Tom Brady-QB-New England
AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Mario Williams-DE-Houston
AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson-RB-Minnesota
AP NFL Most Valuable Player: Tom Brady-QB-New England
AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Knowshon Moreno-RB-Denver
AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year: Brian Cushing-LB-Houston
Awards and Honors Comments: I have the Patriots going 14-2 and winning the Super Bowl which makes Brady the logical pick for Comeback Player of the Year; League MVP; and SB MVP. Once again I have Adrian Peterson as the Offensive POY because running backs often take that award. RB’s also do much better than most in the Offensive ROY category which is why I have Knowshon winning that award. Similarly, linebackers do well in the Defensive ROY category, so I took Cushing for that award. I have Mario Williams winning Defensive POY like I did last year because I think he’s going to explode one of these days. The Coach of the Year award is a tricky one because you don’t know what will rule the day in the minds of the AP voters. It could be the coach of the best regular season team; the coach of the surprise team; the coach of the improved team. I went with McCarthy as the coach of the improved team.
Predicted Stat Leaders
QB Rating: Tom Brady-New England
Passing TD: Phillip Rivers-San Diego
Passing Yards: Drew Brees-New Orleans
Rushing Yards: Adrian Peterson-Minnesota
Rushing TD: Michael Turner-Atlanta
Receptions: TJ Houshmandzadeh-Seattle
Receiving Yards: Calvin Johnson-Detroit
Receiving TD: Randy Moss-New England
Sacks: Mario Williams-Houston
Tackles: Patrick Willis-San Francisco
Interceptions: Ed Reed-Baltimore
Forced Fumbles: John Abraham-Atlanta
Predicted Stat Leaders Comments: These are all shot in the dark guesses. It’s tough to predict these things. I like to spread around the choices to different guys so that I have a better chance of picking one of the offensive or defensive leaders at the different positions.
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