The College Football Blog: 2009 Power Rankings (After Week 3)

Power Rankings after Week 3

1. Florida 3-0 (1st)
2. Texas 3-0 (2nd)
3. Oklahoma 2-1 (6th)
4. Alabama 3-0 (5th)
5. Mississippi 2-0 (4th)
6. USC 2-1 (3rd)
7. Cal 3-0 (7th)
8. LSU 3-0 (12th)
9. Michigan 3-0 (10th)
10. Penn State 3-0 (9th)
11. Boise State 3-0 (13th)
12. Miami 2-0 (NR)
13. Ohio State 2-1 (14th)
14. Cincinnati 3-0 (NR)
15. Nebraska 2-1 (NR)
Out: BYU (8th); Virginia Tech (11th); Notre Dame (15th).

Explanation: At first glance, you probably think I accidentally posted my rankings from a week or two ago. But these are my power rankings after week 3 of the 2009 college football season. Yes, it does speak to confusion, but everyone’s rankings have been turned upside down over the last few weeks. Strangely, this is as comfortable as I’ve felt with my power rankings in a while. This is my second season doing this list and I’ve finally gotten a handle on what exactly I’m trying to do. As you know, my power rankings are based on which team I think would win a head to head matchup on a neutral field at close to full strength. With that in mind, my rankings aren’t going to be affected by wins and losses as much as other polls. I have my view of each team and then I use the new information I get each week and apply it to my rankings. These would not be the rankings you would want to use to determine a national champ because it’s not necessarily going to reflect what teams have accomplished on the field.

Florida is most likely going to stay at #1 for me this season. Even if they win ugly and other teams win impressively I’m still going to lean towards the Gators in one game on a neutral field against anyone. Texas stayed at #2 for me this week although I wasn’t overly impressed with their win over Texas Tech. I expected both the Gators and Longhorns to win by bigger spreads last week.

It’s at #3 that people would start to have a serious problem with my rankings. How did Oklahoma suddenly vault back to #3 just weeks after falling to BYU? Well, first of all, I never dropped the Sooners down that much because I think Sam Bradford’s injury was a major factor in their loss to BYU in the opener. In addition, I’m starting to feel more and more that early season performances can be misleading. I went into this season thinking the Sooners were one of the top teams in the country. In their first game they lost arguably the best QB in college football for the entire second half and ended up losing by 1 point to a very legit BYU team on a neutral field. In two games since, the Sooners have played with backup QB Landry Jones and outscored Idaho State and Tulsa by a combined score of 109-0 at home. While Idaho State is an FCS program—and a middling one at that—Tulsa is one of the better Conference USA teams annually and will again be one of the more prolific offensive teams this season. The Golden Hurricane went into this matchup having scored at least 21 points in 30 consecutive games, and they had scored at least 10 points in 65 straight games. Putting Oklahoma 3rd may look silly now but it won’t when they go down to Miami and cool off a red hot Canes team in a couple of weeks (provided the Canes take care of VT on the road this week; far from a certainty).

Bama and Ole Miss switched places at #4 and #5 this week and that has a lot to do with the fact that we just haven’t learned much about the Rebels over the course of the first 3 weeks. They’re 2-0 with blowout wins over a weak Memphis team and an FCS team. Bama finally seems to have figured out how to play their best even against weaker opponents, as they’ve rolled over SBC teams since their big win over VT in the opener.

The next eye catcher in my rankings this week is USC at #6, just 3 spots down from where I had them last week prior to their upset loss at Washington. From what we’ve seen from USC so far it’s about what many expected. While their pro-stacked defense was decimated by the draft, they’ve reloaded as usual and are still stout on that side of the ball. The offense, despite the unexpected departure of QB Mark Sanchez, is still quite capable. However, because of the lack of experience at QB, Troy is not quite as strong offensively this year either. Finally, the loss of so many talented assistant coaches has also seemingly taken a bit of a toll. Still, it was evident during their 2 victories that when Matt Barkley is under center USC is capable of being an elite team.

That brings us to the main point (and I don’t know why people seem to be over looking this as so many talk of “what’s wrong with USC”): the Trojans were without their starting QB in the loss at Washington. Yes, Barkley is only a freshman. And yes, Aaron Corp was the front runner to win the starting QB spot before an injury opened the door for Barkley prior to the season. But there was a reason why Pete Carroll went with the true freshman over Corp and Mitch Mustain even after Corp was seemingly healthy again. Barkley’s stats in the Ohio State game don’t look any better than Corp’s numbers in the loss to Washington but the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Without Barkley, the Trojans’ offense went through sputters and starts. Carroll was forced to play much more conservatively than he ordinarily would have. And Corp made one of three killer turnovers that led to the defeat. I don’t really understand how Barkley was healthy enough to lead the game winning drive against the Buckeyes and yet was not healthy enough to play a week later in Seattle. Perhaps Carroll figured USC could get by with Corp and it wasn’t worth sending a banged up Barkley out there. But just as I think Oklahoma would have prevailed against BYU had they had Sam Bradford for the entire game, I’m quite confident that USC would have been able to get past Washington if Barkley had been playing instead of Corp. USC was 6 for 16 on 3rd down and 3 for 4 on 4th down against Ohio State; against Washington, USC was 0 for 10 on 3rd down and 0 for 1 on 4th down.

Barkley’s injury is short term and I expect the Washington loss to be just a bump in the road for USC. I’d take them right now over just about any other team in the country in a one-game situation on a neutral field. Thus, there’s no reason for me to send them plummeting out of my top 10. Before I move on, there are a few more things to consider about the loss to Washington. USC dominated the running game and out-gained Washington overall. They played most of the game with very poor field position due to penalties on kickoffs and punt returns. This is surely a sign of an inexperienced team but the poor field position was more costly because the inexperienced (relatively, in comparison to the barley more experienced Barkley) QB was in the game. USC turned the ball over at the Washington 26; the Washington 16; and the Washington 18. Conservative play calling led to less scoring chances, and led to field goals instead of TD’s, and in the end the defense wasn’t able to make 13 points enough for the win. But USC will only get better from here. And again, with Barkley at QB I’d take them right now over almost anyone.

I’ve got Cal at 7th again this week. They may beat USC this year but right now I’ve still got to go with USC over the Bears on a neutral field. LSU made the biggest jump in my power rankings this week, moving up 4 spots from 12th to 8th. They’re 3-0 and one of their wins—a 31-23 win at Washington in the season opener—now looks more significant than it did a couple of weeks ago. Michigan and Penn State switched places at 9th and 10th in my rankings this week, with PSU dropping to 10th and Michigan moving up a spot to 9th. Michigan took care of business against Eastern Michigan to move to 3-0, while Penn State was again not so impressive in a win over a weak opponent at home.

I moved Boise State up a couple of spots from 13th to 11th this week after their hard fought win at Fresno State. They were exposed a bit by Fresno, which used some big runs to put up 34 points on the Bronco defense. But in the end Boise State won by 17 in a hostile environment over what looks to be a capable Fresno State team. Miami debuts in my power rankings at #12 this week. Everybody is jumping on the Hurricane bandwagon following their impressive win over Georgia Tech last Thursday. I’ve been impressed by Miami as well but we’ve only seen them play two games, both against ACC opponents, and they’ve yet to leave the state of Florida.

I moved Ohio State up a spot to 13th this week after their rout of Toledo. While the fact that the game was played in Cleveland is not that big of a deal, the Buckeyes did shutout Toledo, who had scored 31 points against Purdue and 54 points against Colorado in their first two games. Two more teams debuted in my power rankings at #14 and #15 this week. Cincinnati is my #14 squad. I think it’s time to start equating this year’s Cinci team with the 10-win team of 2007 and the 11-win team of 2008. There was a tendency to look at this year’s team as a new group, with 13 starters gone, but the important thing is that Brian Kelly is still there. The Bearcats throttled Rutgers by 32 on the road in week 1; they put a 70-3 beat down on an FCS team in week 2; and last week they went on the road to Oregon State and came away with a 28-18 victory. That’s enough to convince me that they’re again legit.

The last team in my power rankings this week may be the most surprising of all, considering that Nebraska lost in week 3 to fall to 2-1. But I’ve got Nebraska at #15 because their loss at Virginia Tech was still one of the more impressive statements of week 3. Certainly the Cornhuskers have only themselves to blame for allowing a receiver to get by the secondary in the final moments of the game when the Hokies needed a touchdown to survive. Still, Nebraska had the game won, and VT needed a desperation scramble and throw for a TD to pull out the 1-point win at home. Despite surviving the game, I dropped Virginia Tech from 11th all the way out of my power rankings. Consider that this was a home game for Tech. And although Tyrod Taylor pulled a couple of rabbits out of his ass in the final moments, I still wouldn’t want him as my quarterback.

Notre Dame also survived in week 3 but they did not remain in my power rankings, falling from 15th to unranked. The Irish nearly gagged against Michigan State at home. Also, I think you have to treat Michael Floyd’s injury a little differently than other injuries because there is no guarantee that he will play again this season. Even if he does make it back for a bowl game, who knows how effective he will be coming back from a broken collar bone. So I have to take that injury into account.

Of course there was one other team that got ejected from power 15 this week and that was the Mormons of BYU. What a let down! I mean this really shocked me; I’ll be honest about that. I knew BYU’s defense was a question mark coming into the season but they had been impressive against Oklahoma in week 1 (albeit with Sam Bradford injured for the second half) and gave up only 16 total points in their first 2 games. And it’s not like FSU has been an offensive power house in recent years. But the biggest surprise for me was that this happened in Provo. Folks, BYU came into this game having won 18 straight at Lavell Edwards Stadium, going undefeated at home in their previous 3 seasons. Their last home loss had come in the 2005 season finale against Utah, a 7-point loss in overtime. Their last home loss prior to that had been a 1-point loss to TCU in overtime earlier in the 2005 season. And while many of their wins at home had come against overmatched MWC opponents, they’d beaten some BCS teams as well. Last season in week 3 they had hosted UCLA and won by a score of 59-0. In 2007, BYU opened the season with a 20-7 win over Arizona at home. Florida State had opened the season with a loss at home to Miami and had then been scared to death at home by Jacksonville State before escaping with a win. There was no reason to think BYU would lose. Incredibly, not only did BYU lose at home, they got blasted 54-28 by an FSU team traveling across the country. Peace to BYU’s chances at a BCS Bowl (which were not only legitimate but were likely) and obviously there slim hopes at a National Championship. And they would have had the whole world calling for them to be in the BCS title game if they had finished as one of two or fewer undefeated teams in the country. I kicked the Cougs out of my power rankings (likely for good) after they had been 8th a week earlier.