Thursday, September 3, 2009

The College Football Blog: Preseason Power Rankings

Preseason Power Rankings

Note about the Power 15: If you ever looked at the Horse Collar last year then you know how my power rankings work. My rankings are based purely on which team I think would win a head to head matchup on a neutral field. My power rankings have nothing to do with where I think each team will finish the season. I take schedule out of the equation and I don’t consider non-season ending injuries or suspensions.

1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. Mississippi
5. USC
6. Alabama
7. Virginia Tech
8. Oklahoma State
9. Penn State
10. Cal
11. LSU
12. Ohio State
13. Georgia
14. Michigan
15. BYU

Explanation: People love to criticize preseason favorites and the media members who hype them, especially when those teams don’t live up to expectations. Most of this criticism is not merely objective observation; it is emotion and biased reaction. Acting out of jealousy, the fans of less hyped teams revel in the failure of a preseason favorite. These fans got their feelings hurt when their team wasn’t hyped by the media before the season, and regardless of how accurate the predictions of their team turn out to be, they never think twice about pointing out how wrong everyone was about the media darling. But there is another group that is always quick to criticize the preseason favorite that disappoints: the media. The commentary of these people is even more annoying because they are the ones who created the hype in the first place. Notice how the preseason prognosticators never get it wrong, favored teams just “underachieve” occasionally.

Don’t get me wrong; I love to hate preseason favorites too, but only when I think the hype is unfounded. I was always very excited last season on the few occasions when someone commented on my blog. But it did annoy me that the only thing that ever got a strong reaction out of people last year was my ranking Florida #1 over Georgia prior to the start of last season. It bugged me because I am a Bulldawg and I don’t like voting Florida #1 but I gotta call it how I see it. I mean having a blog that no one reads is stupid enough as it is. If you’re not going to be objective when ranking teams then it’s worse than stupid; it’s pointless. However, what bugged me even more was the fact that people acted like there was no logic in ranking the Gators #1, when to me it seemed like a fairly obvious choice. I didn’t know what would happen as the season was played out. In fact, I didn’t even pick the Gators to make the National Championship Game because I thought 2 teams from BCS conferences would go undefeated and the Gators would lose a game in the SEC. But they were the clear pick for top team going into last year.

1. Florida: This season the Gators are once again the obvious pick for #1 going into the season, the only difference is that this season “everyone” knows it. Most of the time there is room for a number of different arguments for which team should be the preseason #1. This year if you don’t have the Gators as the top team in the country going into the season then you’re just trying to be different for the sake of being different. You don’t have a serious argument. They may not end up winning the National Title, but they are clearly the strongest team going into the season. 18 starters return from a team that was clearly the top team in the land last year. They have the best player in the country at QB in his senior season. They have a top notch offensive line and talent galore at the skill positions. They have all 11 starters back from a dominant defense loaded with NFL talent. They have super special teams and the entire unit returns. And like it or not, they have perhaps the best coach in the country. There’s no need to get any further into it.

2. Oklahoma: After the Gators, the rest of the top 3 is also pretty easy to understand because Oklahoma and Texas were arguably the next best teams after Florida at the end of last season. It was very tough to say whether Texas or Oklahoma was the better team and not much has changed since then. Sam Bradford won the Heisman as a sophomore and returns this season along with a stable of talented running backs and the best TE in the country. 9 of 11 starters from the only top notch defense in the Big XII are back. The Sooners have a scary front 7 and a great set of corner backs. But there is a major potential stumbling block for Oklahoma. The offensive line is inexperienced and that could end up holding the Sooners back.

3. Texas: As for the Horns, Texas returns 16 starters from a squad that had every bit as much of a right to be in the BCS Championship Game as Oklahoma did. For Texas, the O-line is strength, and Colt McCoy’s final season could be his best. The defensive line is obviously down with Brian Orakpo gone to the NFL but the secondary will be improved. Under Mack Brown and Bob Stoops, 10 win seasons are assumed, and Oklahoma and Texas are elite again in 2009.

4. Mississippi: After the top 3 things get much cloudier in my view. Ole Miss should be awesome this season. They have 16 returning starters, including the entire offense, and they have some super players on defense. 51 lettermen return but the Rebels haven’t been elite before so you have to have some doubt that they’ll be able to reach those heights this season. It feels risky to rank Ole Miss in the top 5.

5. USC: Ranking USC in the top 5 is actually one of the safer claims you can make in sports. Pete Carroll’s teams are always in the hunt for the National Title and I believe they will be again, despite only 3 starters returning on defense and Mark Sanchez leaving for the NFL. The Trojans still have all of those talented skill position players and a very experienced O-line that might be the best in the country. USC’s front 7 was devastated by the NFL draft but the secondary should be strong and it’s USC, you have to assume that they’ve got some guys who can play linebacker and defensive line. There are other things that could help lead to a down year for USC. The coordinators on both sides of the ball are gone and there are special teams losses. There’s also the issue of starting the season with a freshman QB, but I don’t think it matters as much when the freshman is playing with better skill position players than the opposition and is protected by the #1 offensive line.

6. Alabama: For me, Alabama is in a similar situation as USC. I feel like they’ll take a significant step back but that they’ll still be one of the top teams in the country. The difference is that while the Trojans have been the top program in college football over the past 10 years, the Tide only returned to elite status last season after a lengthy stay in the ranks of mediocrity. Nick Saban turned things around so drastically at Bama that I believe the return to greatness is going to be long lasting. However, they have only 4 returning starters on offense. They lose experienced QB John Parker Wilson, their top running back, and their top 2 offensive linemen. There are big losses in the secondary as well. But Bama should again have a shutdown defense with 9 starters back and Saban running the show.

7. Virginia Tech: Since the end of last season, I had been thinking like many others that Virginia Tech would be tough to beat in 2009. But as the summer went on I began to think less and less of VT. They should be a great team, as they return 16 starters from a squad that won their final 6 games last year. You assume the Hokie defense will be strong and the defensive line is top notch. You know they’ll be excellent on special teams under Frank Beamer. It’s the offense that normally holds VT back but they have a very experienced offensive line and they should get improved play from the QB this season. They have a number of talented backs and receivers returning, but obviously the season ending injury to RB Darren Evans was a major blow. If they aren’t going to be an outstanding running team I have even less faith that Tyrod Taylor will have a great junior season.

8. Oklahoma State: Injuries and off the field problems are muddying up the prospects of the Cowboys as the start of the 2009 season nears. Oklahoma State took a big step last season led by one of the best offenses in the nation. But like most Big XII teams, their defense couldn’t keep up against the top competition. Once again this year the offense should make Okie State one of the best teams in the country and if the defense improves they could take it to the next level. Stud tight end Brandon Pettigrew is gone but the rest of the offense returns, including the most talented QB-RB-WR combination in the country and a solid offensive line. The front 7 of the defense is talented but the secondary is again a major question mark. Of course, the loss of their top linebacker to injury has tempered hopes that the defense would make great strides this season.

9. Penn State: Did we ever really figure out how good Penn State was last year? I mean, it’s always hard to know what to make of the Big Ten conference schedule and they got whipped by USC in the Rose Bowl. We may never figure out how good they are this year either. Only 9 starters return. They lose 3 great offensive linemen and they have question marks at receiver and in the secondary. But they get their QB and their top RB’s back and the defensive front 7 is very solid.

10. Cal: Every year it seems like there is one Pac-10 team with a chance to distinguish itself as a top notch squad along side conference mate USC. But those teams rarely succeed in doing on the field what it looked like they could do on paper. This year that potentially great Pac-10 team other than USC appears to be Cal. The QB situation may at last be straightened out, the top WR’s are back, and they have the top running back in the country in Jahvid Best.

11. LSU: While not everything points to LSU bouncing back to National Championship contention this season, you just feel like they will because they’ve been so good over the last 10 years. They should be much better at the QB spot this year and they have a number of talented backs and receivers. LSU’s backbone has always been the defense and they should be closer to their usual level defensively this year.

12. Ohio State: As much as their credibility as a national power has been damaged by their recent performances in big games and the decline of the rest of the Big Ten, Jim Tressel’s program is still one of the best in the country. This year the Buckeyes lose their best back, receiver, and linebacker, and they have losses on special teams as well. But they will again be very strong on the offensive line and in the secondary. The key to Ohio State’s 2009 season will be the progress of QB Terrelle Pryor, who showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman. He could become another Troy Smith. Or he could be just another athletic QB who makes big plays but is inconsistent from play to play, series to series, and game to game.

13. Georgia: The Dawgs were a popular pick last season but they failed to live up to the hype for a variety of reasons. This year they aren’t getting much love. Part of this is due to the fact that—as discussed earlier—preseason predicting is personal for many people and a team that disappoints is often “punished” by those who hyped them before. But with Georgia there are clearly some compelling reasons to expect a drop off. Last year’s QB went #1 in the NFL draft; arguably the top running back in college football left early as well; and senior wide receiver Mohammed Massaquoi is also gone. Two areas that were problematic last season—the defensive line and the secondary—remain question marks. However, last year’s Georgia team had horrible injury luck. Distractions and disciplinary problems that plagued last year’s team don’t appear to be a problem going into this season. Most importantly, the offensive line, which was the biggest weakness of the 2008 team, is the 2009 team’s biggest strength. People are probably right to doubt Georgia’s chances to compete for the National Championship, but Georgia has been consistently great throughout Mark Richt’s tenure.

14. Michigan: Rating Michigan this high would have raised eyebrows at any point in the offseason. After the events of the last month, it seems outrageous to claim that the Wolverines are back to being a top team. Coming off one of the worst season’s in their history, Michigan’s program now appears to be in disarray. But I think the Wolverines are closer to getting back to greatness than people think. I truly believe that Rich Rodriguez will have Michigan back near the top of college football next season if he is able to hang around that long. And I still think they could make a major rebound this season, in spite of the turmoil. The radical offensive transition was too much for Michigan last season but they return 10 starters on offense for year 2 under Rodriguez. The offensive line is top notch and things could change dramatically if the skill position players can step up their game. The defense should be much improved, led by a strong group of linebackers. 51 lettermen are back for Rodriguez’s second season and that experience could mean more than people realize.

15. BYU: As a rule, I’m hesitant to rank teams from outside the BCS conferences among the top teams in the country. People make a lot out of bowl game successes by so called BCS Busters, but you have to keep things in perspective. The best teams in conferences like the Mountain West and the WAC have a great chance of compiling impressive records because their schedules are drastically easier than teams from the SEC and the Big XII. It’s hard to know how much stock to put in the outcomes of bowl games between BCS teams and non-BCS teams because of the all the unusual factors at play such as motivation, distractions, and the time off between games. In general, I don’t think the best teams in the non-BCS conferences are on the same level as the top teams from the power conferences. BYU is my top non-BCS team this year but I only have them 15th in my power rankings. They will again have one of the best offenses in the country this year, led by senior QB Max Hall. The defense held last year’s team back but should be much improved in 2009. However, BYU’s offensive line is a question mark and that’s not the area that you want to have as a weak link.

Other Potential Top Teams

TCU: Utah got a lot of well deserved attention last year by going 13-0 and spanking Alabama in the Sugar Bowl to finish the season ranked 3rd in the final polls. Yet I don’t even think they were the best non-BCS conference team. For me, the best team from outside the power conferences was TCU, who lost at Oklahoma and lost by 3 to Utah on the road because their kicker missed a few makeable field goal attempts. This season the Horned Frogs have their top QB, RB, and WR back and the defense should be strong as usual. But only 10 starters return and there’s no way the defense can be as good as last year’s dominant unit.

Boise State: The Broncos should cruise through the regular season as usual. They have an excellent QB but their top RB is gone and the defense is inexperienced.

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