Last Week: Vs. Spread: (5-7-1); Straight Up: (10-3)
Season: Vs. Spread: (42-44-4); Straight Up: (60-30)
Week 6 Review: Not a good week for me ATS but it could have been worse. At least I had a good week picking winners.
Week 7 Preview: Hopefully I can rebound with a good week to get over .500 for the year ATS. 6 more teams have byes this week so there will again be 13 games on the schedule. Not 1 of the 13 games this week is a matchup of 2 teams with winning records. There are 6 games featuring a team with a winning record taking on a team with a losing record; 4 games featuring a team with a winning record taking on a team at .500; and 3 games featuring a pair of teams with losing records. This has made for a challenging week as far as picking games. For the most part, spreads this week are big or small; not much in between.
Sunday’s Early Games
San Diego (-1) @ New York Jets
Pick: Chargers cover
Comments: This is one of the better matchups of the week. There’s some bad blood here. The Jets upset the Chargers in the playoffs in 2004 and again in 2009. This will be the first meeting since the 2009 divisional round matchup. LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Cromartie were career Chargers before joining the Jets. Things got a little heated between the head coaches this week after Rex Ryan ran his fat mouth again. It should be a good one and it is a big game for both teams.
The Chargers are 4-1 overall (2-3 ATS) and 1-1 on the road (1-1 ATS). They’ve won 3 in a row. Despite a 4-1 record, the Chargers have only a +2.2 average scoring margin. New York is 3-3 overall (2-4 ATS) and 3-0 at home (2-1 ATS). The Jets are at .500, yet their average scoring margin is higher than SD’s at +2.4. The Jets snapped a 3-game losing skid with their win over the Dolphins last Monday night, but this will be a short week for them, while the Chargers will be coming off of a bye.
Interestingly, teams coming off of byes went 1-5 last week. Usually we think of teams coming off of a bye as having an advantage due to being rested and having had an extra week to prepare. Some theorize that teams coming off of bye weeks will actually be at a disadvantage this season due to all of the new practice restrictions. It will be interesting to see what happens to teams coming off of byes this week.
The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7 after the bye week. This is the first time the Chargers will play at the Jets since 2005 (Chargers won) and just the 2nd time since 1994 (also a Charger victory).
Seattle (+3) @ Cleveland
Pick: Browns cover
Comments: For some, the intrigue here will be about coaches and former coaches. The last time these two teams met in 2007, Cleveland GM Mike Holmgren was still head coach of the Seahawks. The Browns won at home in overtime. Pete Carroll is in his 2nd season as head coach in Seattle and he will be going up against 1st year Browns head coach Pat Shurmur. Interestingly, the younger Jim Mora will broadcast this game on Fox. Mora was HC in waiting during Holmgren’s last year in Seattle (2008) and got the job in 2009, but he was fired after only 1 season (5-11 record).
Both teams are trying to stay on the fringes of the playoff race. These two teams have very similar records. The Seahawks are 2-3 overall (3-2 ATS) and 1-2 on the road (1-2 ATS). They have a -5.6 average scoring margin. The Browns are 2-3 overall (1-3-1 ATS) and 1-2 at home (0-2-1 ATS). Their average scoring margin is -5.2.
The Seahawks have won 3 in a row ATS. They are coming off of a bye and in their last game they got a huge road upset over the Giants. They are just 4-10 in their last 14 games off of their bye week. The Browns have lost their last 2 games and they are 0-2-1 ATS in their last 3.
2 defense starters are doubtful for the Browns: LB Scott Fujita and CB Joe Haden. Tarvaris Jackson has not been ruled out but he is certainly not expected to play due to a pectoral injury. Charlie Whitehurst started at QB against the Giants and led the Hawks to the win.
Atlanta (+3.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Lions cover
Comments: Not to be repetitive, but this is also a big game for both teams. It’s big in both tangible and intangible ways. If the Lions want to challenge Green Bay for the division they certainly can’t afford to lose back to back home games. A loss for the Falcons would make them 3-4, with all 4 losses coming within the conference, and would put them in a tough spot as far as the playoffs are concerned.
Perhaps more importantly, this game is big for each team’s psyche (and that of their fans). The Lions had a number of streaks snapped last week when they suffered a gut wrenching loss at home to the 49ers. After the game, HC Jim Schwartz felt disrespected by SF head coach Jim Harbaugh and wound up chasing after him to talk smack. It kind of made Schwartz look like a fool. Detroit fans may start to get scared if the Lions lose back to back home games. The Falcons have to prove to themselves and their fans that they are true contenders this season. They haven’t looked the part so far, but a win this week would certainly help.
The Falcons are 3-3 overall (2-4 ATS) and 1-2 on the road (0-3 ATS). They have a -2.0 ASM. They have not yet won back to back games this season and they’ve never been above .500 at any point. The Lions are 5-1 overall (4-1-1 ATS) and 2-1 at home (1-2 ATS). They’ve outscored opponents by 10.7 points per game this year.
WR Julio Jones and LT Sam Baker are big health question marks for the Falcons. The Lions are in a bit of a jam at the RB position. Jahvid Best has always been a bit injury prone and Detroit tried to upgrade his backup this week by trading Jerome Harrison to the Eagles for Ronnie Brown at the deadline. Unfortunately (or fortunately) Harrison did not pass his physical and the trade was voided. It turns out that Harrison has a brain tumor that will have to be removed. He won’t play again this season but his long term prognosis is positive and he has a good chance of resuming his career at some point. Regardless, now the Lions don’t even have Harrison, who was only signed because Mikel Leshoure was knocked out for the year during the preseason. Best is dealing with a concussion and if he can’t go it will be Maurice Morris getting the majority of playing time.
The Falcons won the last meeting between these two teams in 2008 (the first game of the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith Era). The last time here, however, the Lions upset the Falcons as 5-point underdogs (2006). Detroit also upset the Falcons as 7-point dogs in 2004. Now the Falcons need to return the favor and upset the Lions.
Washington (+1) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers cover
Comment: This is an interesting spread. The Panthers are just 1-5 overall (4-2 ATS) and 1-2 at home (3-0 ATS), while the Redskins are 3-2 overall (3-2 ATS) and 1-1 on the road (2-0 ATS). The Panthers have been competitive this season. Their ASM is -5.0 despite just a 1-5 record. However, they seemed to run out of gas late in last week’s game at Atlanta, and they appeared frustrated. They’ve lost 3 in a row.
Washington has a +2.6 ASM. They need a win this week to avoid falling to .500. Apparently they’re going to try and get that win with John Beck at QB and not Rex Grossman. RB Tim Hightower is probable this week but tackle Trent Williams is doubtful. TE Chris Cooley is out indefinitely.
Washington won the first 6 games in this series but Carolina has won 2 of 3 since 2003. They’ve won the last 2 at home.
Chicago (-1) vs. Tampa Bay (London)
Pick: Bears cover
Comments: The NFL insists on playing this stupid game in London every year, and the Buccaneers are going for the 2nd time in 3 years. In 2009 they lost 35-7 to the Patriots. Apparently this won’t be the Bears’ first game in London either. Back in 1986 the defending Super Bowl champs beat the Dallas Cowboys 17-6 in front of the Brits.
The Bears catch a break as they are 0-2 on the road this season (0-2 ATS) and they will only have to play 7 true road games this season. The Bucs are 1-1 on the road so far (1-1 ATS). They’ll lose out on a home game due to this one. Chicago is 3-3 overall (2-4 ATS), while Tampa is 4-2 overall (3-3 ATS). Chicago has a +2.3 ASM. The Bucs, on the other hand, have a -5.4 average scoring margin despite being 2 games over .500.
This game could end up being very important and it’s too bad it will be played in somewhat artificial circumstances. Neither team is likely to win their division, but they both have a very good chance of contending for a wildcard spot. The winner of this game will have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
These two are former division rivals. The last 3 meetings and 5 of the last 8 going back to 2000 have been decided by exactly 3 points. The last meeting was in 2008, with the Bucs winning in Chicago. The Buccaneers will be without DT Gerald McCoy and RB LeGarrette Blount.
Denver (+1) @ Miami
Pick: Broncos pull off the upset
Comments: This may sound crazy but I think the worst of the Tim Tebow saga is over. Having to listen to people bitch and moan about him not getting a chance to play was just unbearable. Now we’ll see. Look, I’ll admit, I hate Tim Tebow. If you think hate is too strong a word, I’m sorry. I usually don’t use that term when talking about athletes. But I don’t hate him as a football player. He might be the best college football player I’ve ever seen and I admired the way he played and how he led his team. I actually hate him as a person. That’s why I want to see him fail, but I actually believe and have always believed that he could play in the NFL as a QB. I don’t think he’ll be a great NFL QB and I think that’s all that most analysts are saying when they criticize him. He has the physical and mental talents to get by as an NFL QB. But I think there are limits on what he can do.
He’ll make plays with his legs and he’ll be able to do a lot of good things with sheer effort. But there will be limits. He can’t be Aaron Rodgers but a team can be competitive with him at QB. Great defenses will shut him down the way that great defenses have shut down Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Vince Young, and all “play making” QB’s. He’ll make mistakes do to inexperience and do to trying to do too much just as all “play making” QB’s have. He’ll be inconsistent with his accuracy. He’ll get injured a lot. He’ll be like all “play making” QB’s.
He can most certainly hold his own at QB in the NFL. He’s not going to be one of the best. That’s why it made more sense—purely in terms of on the field interests—to draft Tim Tebow in the 3rd round and not in the 1st. The 1st round is where you select QB’s that you think can be All-Pro and lead you to the Super Bowl. Tebow is not that guy.
Like I said, however, I think Tebow will energize this Denver team in the short run. Plus, at least now we don’t have to hear evangelical idiots clamoring for him to play. While I have obviously always felt that the Tebow coverage was way out of hand, I will admit that his situation is the only thing remotely interesting about this matchup. Don’t forget, the Dolphins are actually honoring Tebow for his accomplishments at Florida this Sunday. The Tebow ceremonies and the fact that he now starting have reportedly led to increased ticket sales. That says a lot about both Miami/Florida sports fans.
Denver makes the switch from Kyle Orton to Tebow having started the year 1-4 overall (1-4 ATS) and 0-2 on the road (1-1 ATS). They’ve lost 3 straight and have been outscored by 7 points a game this year. They’ve lost 7 in a row on the road going back to last season. Fortunately for them they are playing the Dolphins. Miami is 0-5 on the year (0-4-1 ATS) and 0-2 at home (0-2). They’ve been outscored by 10.6 points per game and they’ve lost 8 straight going back to last year (0-7-1 ATS).
Going to Miami has never been an easy trip for the Broncos. In fact, they’re 0-7 at Miami all-time. This time, however, they may find a large portion of the crowd rooting for them. The Dolphins have won their last 2 meetings with Denver and 5 of 6 since 1999. This will be a short week for Miami, while the Broncos are coming off of a bye. The Broncos are 6-2 in their last 8 games after their bye week.
Safety Reshad Jones is doubtful for the Dolphins, who will again be going with Matt Moore at QB. Tim Tebow will not have WR Brandon Lloyd to go to, as the Broncos traded him to St. Louis at the deadline.
Houston (+3.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Texans beat the spread
Comments: This is a huge game, as one of these two teams will almost certainly win the AFC South. The one who finishes 2nd will likely miss the playoffs. And there doesn’t appear to be much separating these two. Houston is 3-3 overall (3-3 ATS) and 1-2 on the road (1-2 ATS), while the Titans are 3-2 overall (2-3 ATS) and 2-0 at home (1-1 ATS). Tennessee has an ASM of +2.2; the Texans have a +2.8 average scoring margin.
Both teams have been hit by injuries. The stud RB’s for both teams have been slowed by hamstring injuries. The Titans lost WR Kenny Britt and S Chris Hope, while the Texans lost DE Mario Williams and will likely be without superstar WR Andre Johnson again this Sunday.
The Texans have lost their last 2 games and they don’t have a good history against the Titans. They are just 5-13 all-time against the Titans and 2-7 at Tennessee. The Titans have won 4 of their last 5 games the week after a bye.
Sunday’s Late Games
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Steelers cover
Comments: Pittsburgh comes into this one 4-2 overall (2-4 ATS) and 1-2 on the road (0-3 ATS). They’ve only outscored opponents by 2.8 points per game this season. Arizona is just 1-4 overall (2-3 ATS) and 1-1 at home (1-1 ATS). The Cards have a -5.0 ASM.
I’m tempted to pick Arizona in this one since they are at home and the Steelers have not looked that great so far this season, especially on the road. The Steelers are banged up and struggled against the Jags last week. They’ll be without LB James Harrison, NT Casey Hampton, and DE Aaron Smith again this week. The Cards should be rested, coming off of a bye. However, Arizona has lost 4 of their last 5 after their bye. They’ve lost their last 4 games and they’ve lost 3 in a row ATS. The Steelers have won 2 in a row.
This will be the first meeting since the Steelers narrowly defeated the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII. Arizona won the last time here in 2007. Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt was Pittsburgh’s OC from 2004-2006. Some thought he would be Pittsburgh’s coach when Bill Cowher retired after the ’06 season, but instead Whisenhunt got the job in Arizona and Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh.
Kansas City (+5) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comments: Obviously the big story here is the Carson Palmer situation. Apparently, there is a decent chance that Palmer will be the starting QB for Oakland on Sunday. If they decide that it’s simply unreasonable to expect Palmer to fly into town and into the huddle it will be Kyle Boller under center. Boller hasn’t played much lately either. Going with Palmer may give the Raiders a better chance of winning on Sunday than Boller, but there seems to be some risk in playing him right away.
With all the discussion over the QB situation, people are forgetting that Kansas City has a chance to win this game regardless of who is under center for the Silver and Black. The Chiefs are 2-3 overall (3-2 ATS) and 1-2 on the road (2-1 ATS). They have a horrible -14.6 ASM but they’ve won 2 in a row and 3 straight ATS. They are coming off of a bye. KC has only won 2 of their last 7 games coming off of their bye week.
The Raiders are now 4-2 overall (5-1 ATS) and 2-1 at home (2-1 ATS). Despite being 2 games over .500, their ASM is just +1.7. They have won 2 in a row (2-0 ATS).
This is one of the best and most historic rivalries in the NFL. The Raiders swept the Chiefs last season. They’ve actually won 3 of the last 4 (3-1 ATS) and 5 of the last 7 (5-2 ATS) in this series, despite the fact that last year’s week 9 win snapped a 7-game losing streak against the Chiefs at home.
Green Bay (-9) @ Minnesota
Pick: Packers cover
Comments: I know this is a historic rivalry but it’s also a mismatch. The Packers are clearly the top team in football. They are 6-0 overall (5-1 ATS) and 3-0 on the road (2-1 ATS). Green Bay has outscored opponents by 13.8 points a game this year. The Vikes, on the other hand, are 1-5 overall (2-3-1 ATS) and 1-2 at home (1-1-1 ATS). They have a -4.0 ASM.
I think the Vikings are making the right move in benching Donovan McNabb and letting rookie Christian Ponder get a shot. It sucks that he has to get his feet wet against the Packers, but they really had to make the move now. He’ll be at home for his first start and then play a much less formidable opponent (Carolina) in his first road start. They have a bye week after that and then come back for a Monday night game at Lambeau. So, yeah, they might as well just get him in there now.
Green Bay has won 12 in a row going back to last season. They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games. The Green Bay Packers have played 35 games since they last lost by more than 4 points in regulation (they lost by 6 in OT to the Cards in the 2008 NFC Wildcard Round). That may not seem like a big deal to a lot of fans, but that would be important to me if I was a Packers fan. They’ve been in every game they’ve played for more than 2 years.
The Packers swept Minnesota last year. They’ve won 7 of their last 10 against the Vikes. Last year the Packers beat the Vikes 31-3 in Minnesota.
St. Louis (+13) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys cover
Comments: This shouldn’t be competitive but with Dallas you never know. The Cowboys have lost their last 2 games. They could be undefeated but instead they have a losing record after 5 games. The Boys are now 2-3 overall (2-2-1 ATS) and 1-1 at home (0-2 ATS). They have a -1.2 ASM.
The Cards are still winless at 0-5 (0-5 ATS). They are 0-2 on the road (0-2 ATS). The Rams have been outscored by 17.6 points per game this season. They’ve lost 6 straight (0-6 ATS) going back to the final game of last season. They’ve dropped 4 straight on the road (0-4 ATS).
Dallas won’t have RB Felix Jones for this one. St. Louis will have newly acquired wideout Brandon Lloyd. The question is whether or not they’ll have Sam Bradford available to throw him the ball. Bradford is supposed to play but he has a bum ankle and may not end up going. That would mean AJ Feeley time for St. Louis.
The Rams have pulled off upsets against the often overrated Cowboys in recent years. In 2008 the Rams won 34-14 over the Boys at home as 9-point underdogs. Back in 2005, the Rams won 20-10 at Dallas as 10-point underdogs.
Sunday Night’s Game
Indianapolis (+14) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints win but Colts beat the spread
Comments: The Peyton Manning injury continues to wreck havoc on the NFL’s primetime schedule. This will be the 3rd time in 9 weeks that the Colts will play a stand-alone night game. There will be 2 more to come after this one. It’s simply amazing how quick and how drastic this team’s fall has been. Yes, things were trending downwards, but you’re talking about a team that had won double digit games in 9 consecutive seasons heading into this one. We have always made offhand comments about how the Colts would be finished if anything ever happened to Peyton Manning. Unfortunately, we’re getting a chance to see how true all of that was.
The Colts are 0-6 (2-4 ATS) and 0-3 on the road (1-2 ATS). They’ve been outscored by 9.9 points per game. They have lost 7 in a row going back to last year’s loss to the Jets in the playoffs (2-5 ATS). New Orleans is 4-2 overall (3-3 ATS) and 2-0 at home (2-0 ATS). The Saints have a +4.3 average scoring margin. They lost in Tampa last week and they’ve lost 2 in a row ATS.
Kerry Collins has missed the last 3 games dealing with a concussion and it looks like Lance Painter will again be the quarterback for Indy this week. RB Joseph Addai is doubtful with a hamstring problem. Saints coach Sean Peyton caught some friendly fire on the sidelines last week but he has had surgery on his leg and is expected to coach in some capacity in this game.
The last time these two played in New Orleans (2003), the Colts smashed the Saints 55-21. This will be the first meeting between these two teams since Super Bowl XLIV. Much will be said about how things have gone the wrong way for Indy ever since that game. For me, however, it goes back a little ways before that. In week 16 of that 2009 season, the Colts were 14-0 and had a halftime lead over the Jets at home. They then decided to put in all the backups, including Lance Painter, and played the rest of the game without starters. The Jets came back to win, ending Indy’s chances for a perfect season, and greatly improving New York’s chances of making the playoffs. It was one of the worst things I’ve ever seen a team do to their fans and to the game. Beginning with that game, the Colts have gone 12-16 (12-15-1 ATS) since their 14-0 start.
Monday Night’s Game
Baltimore (-9) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Ravens cover
Comments: I guess this isn’t too bad of a matchup but I have to say that the MNF slate has been a little tame so far. Taking a peak ahead, it looks like it will be fairly tame throughout the season. Some of it can’t be helped. The Peyton Manning injury turned all the games involving Indy into duds. The Chiefs started off the year looking terrible and then they lost Jamaal Charles for the season, significantly downgrading all games involving KC. But I just have to wonder why Jacksonville ended up with 2 Monday Night home games this season.
The Ravens are 4-1 overall (4-1 ATS) and 1-1 on the road (1-1 ATS). Baltimore has an impressive +15.4 ASM. They have won 3 in a row (3-0 ATS).
Another team searching for a QB, the Jags are going with rookie Blaine Gabbert. Jacksonville is now 1-5 (2-4 ATS) and 1-2 at home (1-2 ATS). They’ve been outscored by 10 points per game this season. They have now lost 5 in a row (1-4 ATS). They are 1-8 in their last 9 games going back to last season (2-7 ATS).
These two were division rivals for a time. Baltimore has won 7 of the last 8 meetings. The last meeting was in 2008, with the Ravens winning 27-7. Jax won the last game here, 30-3, in 2005.
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