Last Week: Vs. Spread: (7-5-1); Straight Up: (8-5)
Season: Vs. Spread: (37-37-3); Straight Up: (50-27)
Week 5 Review: Nice to have back to back weeks over .500 ATS and straight up. Also good to be back to .500 ATS for the year.
Week 6 Preview: What I like is that we’re getting to that point in the season where every game seems important for every team. We’re deep enough in that things are starting to take shape and there is urgency. And we aren’t far enough into the year for any team to be out of any race. For this reason I have insisted on putting in a few sentences about how important each game is in every preview below. The only downer is that this will be the second week of byes, with 6 more teams having the weekend off, meaning there will only be 13 games once again this week.
Sunday’s Early Games
Carolina (+4) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons win but Panthers beat the spread
Comments: The Falcons’ pesky rivals come to the Dome at a time when we could have really used them if they were still as non-competitive as last year. Unfortunately, Cam Newton has been electric and the Panthers have been in every game this season, despite a tough schedule. They are 1-4 overall (4-1 ATS) and 0-2 on the road (1-1 ATS). They’ve won 4 straight ATS. The Falcons are now just 2-3 overall (1-4 ATS) and 1-1 at home (1-1 ATS), and they have yet to play 4 quarters of good football this season. They’ve lost 3 straight ATS.
In fact, you could make the case that the only thing that has given the Falcons a better record than Carolina to this point has been luck. Atlanta has a -5.2 average scoring margin, while the Panthers are at -3.2 per game.
The Panthers will come into this game healthy, while the Falcons are a banged up bunch. They are ailing particularly on defense, and that’s not good news with Newton up next. Christopher Owens and William Moore got knocked out of last Sunday night’s game and they might be out of the Atlanta secondary this weekend. If that’s the case it could be a long day.
The Falcons also need DE John Abraham to return to the lineup this week. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons will be without rookie receiver Julio Jones for the first time this season, and they desperately need center Todd McClure back in the lineup.
This is a big game for both teams. If the Panthers have any hopes of getting into the playoff chase they simply have to have this game. It’s almost a must win game for Atlanta as well, as they simply can’t afford to lose any winnable games at home the rest of the way. The Falcons lost for the 3rd time in 5 games last week, after not losing their 3rd game of the season until week 16 last year. The Panthers need only 1 more win to match their win total from all of last season.
The Falcons have had a ton of success at home during the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, but they are coming off of a double digit loss at home, a defeat which delivered another blow to a fan base that is among the most fickle in the NFL to begin with. You have to wonder what the crowd will be like this Sunday against a presumably weak opponent following the collapse last Sunday night. It wouldn’t be a complete shock if the building remains relatively quiet and makes the most noise following flashy plays by Cam Newton. You can bet that “neutral” fans and “Cam Newton” fans (read: Auburn fans) will be in attendance.
Falcons fans have to hope that Michael Turner shows up this Sunday and that we can figure out a way to keep our historical nemesis Steve Smith quiet. The Dirty Birds have won the last 2 and 4 of the last 5 in this series, including 3 straight at home.
San Francisco (+4) @ Detroit
Pick: Lions cover
Comments: Who saw this being a really important matchup between teams with a combined record of 9-1? Perhaps even more shockingly, who saw this being (in my opinion) by far the most interesting matchup of week 6?
The Niners are 4-1 overall (4-0-1 ATS) and a stunning 2-0 on the road (2-0 ATS), while the Lions are the talk of football at 5-0 overall (4-0-1 ATS) and 2-0 at home (2-0 ATS). SF has a +12.8 average scoring margin, while Detroit has a ridiculous +14.0 average scoring margin.
The Niners have won 3 straight (3-0 ATS) and are looking for a 3rd straight win on the road, something just about unprecedented over the last decade. The only bad news for the Niners is that they lost receiver Josh Morgan to a season ending injury suffered late in last week’s blowout win over Tampa. They are running a little short on weapons at that position with Braylon Edwards also on the shelf.
The Lions, meanwhile, have actually won 9 straight games now going back to last year. They are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10.
It’s probably not relevant at this point, but the Niners have won 7 straight over the Lions since 1996, and they’ve won 11 of 12 against them since 1991. Whoever wins this game, it’s a big game for both franchises just because meaningful games have been few and far between for them during this millennium.
Indianapolis (+7) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Bengals win but Colts beat the spread
Comments: I have to admit: I did not think the wakeup call would be this harsh for the Colts and their fans when I first understood that Manning wouldn’t be back until late November at the earliest. I thought they’d lose more games than they would win without him, but I didn’t see them starting off the season with 5 straight losses. I didn’t see them getting outscored by 9.8 points per game.
Despite the 0-5 record, the Colts are 2-3 ATS. They are 0-2 straight up on the road (1-1 ATS). The Bengals are 3-2 overall (4-1 ATS) and a winning record is always appreciated in the Jungle. They are 1-1 at home so far (1-1 ATS).
The Colts have plenty of injury issues besides Manning, with Kerry Collins missing the last 2 games with a concussion, and Joseph Addai doubtful this week with a hamstring problem.
Again, this surely isn’t relevant at this point, but the Colts have won 7 straight over the Bengals since 1998. Interestingly, this will be the first meeting in Cincinnati since 2005 and just the 2nd since 1996.
This is obviously a big game for both teams. Any Bengals fan would take a 4-2 start. For the Colts, every game is huge as long as they don’t have a win on the season. They create the wrong kind of team history with each defeat. With each loss the pressure mounts.
Philadelphia (-1) @ Washington
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: One team has 1 loss, while the other team has 1 win, and the records are the reverse of what most would have expected at the start of this season. This is pretty close to a must win game for the Eagles. Even though no one is likely to run away with the title in the NFC East, they would basically be in a position where they wouldn’t have much room for error at all the rest of the season.
If they lose this week they’d have to go 8-2 over their final 10 games just to finish with a winning record. If that doesn’t sound so bad, consider that they have games against the Jets, Patriots, Cowboys (2), Bears, and another with the Skins still ahead, not to mention a road game against the Seahawks, who suddenly look like a reasonable foe.
While a loss for the Skins would certainly not be anywhere near as devastating as it would be for the Eagles, a win for Washington would obviously be huge.
The Eagles are 1-4 overall (1-4 ATS) and 1-2 on the road (1-2 ATS), while the Skins are 3-1 overall (3-1 ATS) and 2-0 at home (2-0 ATS). The Eagles opened the season with a win over the Rams but they have since lost 4 straight (0-4 ATS). Despite losing 4 of 5 games this season their average scoring margin is just -1.4. The Skins have a +5.0 average scoring margin.
These teams have split their 8 meetings over the previous 4 seasons, but the Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 and 9 of their last 11 in DC, including last year’s 59-28 romp on Monday Night Football. It was really that game that convinced many people that Michael Vick had become the unstoppable force.
The Eagles haven’t been the “Dream Team” that many expected so far this season, and they probably won’t be at full strength this Sunday. Left tackle Jason Peters and stud DE Trent Cole are both listed as doubtful.
St. Louis (+14.5) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comments: This is obviously the biggest mismatch of week 6. At the moment this would appear to be the worst team in the NFL going on the road to play against the best team in the NFL. St. Louis is 0-4 overall (0-4 ATS) and 0-1 on the road (0-1 ATS), while the Packers are 5-0 overall (4-1 ATS) and 2-0 at home (2-0 ATS). The Rams have been outscored by an average of 16.7 points a game, while the Packers have outscored opponents by an average of 12.4 points per game.
Going back to last season the Packers have now won 11 straight and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12. The Rams, on the other hand, have lost 5 straight (0-5 ATS) and 7 of 8 (1-7 ATS) dating back to last season. Additionally, the Rams are 2-5 over the last 7 years the week after their bye, and they are 6-27 on the road since the start of the 2007 season.
Again, this probably means little, but the Packers have won 2 in a row and 8 of 11 against the Rams since 1992.
It’s not hard to see the importance of this game for both squads, as the Rams are trying to get their first victory of the season, and the Packers are trying to stay perfect.
Jacksonville (+12.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover
Comments: The Jags are very fortunate to have that fluky season opening win over the Titans in their pocket because without that they may well have been 0-8 heading into their bye. The Jags are 1-4 overall (1-4 ATS) and 0-2 on the road (0-2 ATS), having lost 4 straight (0-4 ATS) since that 2-point win in week 1. Their average scoring margin is -11.2. They should lose a 5th straight game in Pittsburgh this week and then follow it up with 2 more losses against the Ravens and Texans in weeks 7 and 8 respectively.
The Steelers are now 3-2 overall (2-3 ATS) and 2-0 at home (2-0 ATS). Their average scoring margin is just +2.6. They have crushed their opponents in their only 2 home games so far this season, and they should have no problem with the Jags, despite the fact that they are quite a banged up football team. All 3 Steelers running backs are battling injuries, NT Casey Hampton missed last week’s game, and they will be without LB James Harrison and DE Aaron Smith again this Sunday. Even with the injuries the Steelers are big favorites and they can’t afford to slip up and fall to .500.
One more interesting note: for whatever reason, the Jags have won 4 of 5 against their former division rivals since 2005, including going 3-0 at Pittsburgh. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Steelers since 2000. An upset this Sunday would be huge considering the gloomy forecast outlined earlier.
Buffalo (+3) @ New York Giants
Pick: Bills pull off the upset
Comments: This will be just the 6th meeting between these two in-state (nominally at least) rivals since Super Bowl XXV. It’s a big game for both teams. The Bills have been a nice story so far and there is every reason to believe that they are for real, but the truth is they’ll have to keep winning at this pace if they want to contend with the Patriots and Jets in the division.
As for the Giants, they’re still trying to figure out if they are a good team or not. They need a win to help put last week’s shocking home loss to the Seahawks in the rearview mirror. They also don’t want to fall to .500 after 6 games.
The Giants are 3-2 overall (3-2 ATS) and 1-1 at home (1-1 ATS). Their average scoring margin is only +0.8. The Bills are 4-1 overall (3-2 ATS) and 1-1 on the road (1-1 ATS). They have a +8.8 average scoring margin.
Buffalo’s season has certainly started out much better than last year when they opened the season 0-8. They’ve already matched last year’s win total at 4. As bad as things got last year, there were many signs that the Bills were much better than their record, and that they were starting to get better. Look, I picked the Bills to go 5-11 this season, so I’m not denying that their 4-1 start to this year has been a surprise. But we all knew that last year they were perhaps the most unlucky team in the NFL. During one 6 game stretch last season they went 2-4 with all 4 losses coming by 3 points, and 3 of those coming in overtime.
I’m a believer at this point, but they have gotten off to a better than expected start before and then seen things come crashing down. In 2008 they won their first 4 games and started out 5-1, but they lost 8 of their final 10 games to finish 7-9 for the 3rd straight season.
The Giants have been banged up all year and they will have at least 2 and maybe 3 key players out for this game. Justin Tuck and Brandon Jacobs are out for sure, while Osi Umenyiora is questionable. The Bills may be without their best defensive player in NT Kyle Williams.
Sunday’s Late Games
Cleveland (+6.5) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders win but Browns beat the spread
Comments: The Raiders got the win for Al Davis last weekend and they are now 3-2 (4-1 ATS) despite an average scoring margin of +0.6. The Browns are 2-2 (1-2-1 ATS) despite a -4.7 average scoring margin. The Browns are 1-0 on the road so far (1-0 ATS), while the Raiders are 1-1 at home (1-1 ATS). Cleveland has won 4 of 5 against Oakland since 2003 (5-0 ATS).
This could be a bit of a trap game for the Raiders but they can’t afford to let that happen. They have come a long way in the last couple of years but they certainly haven’t done enough yet to become complacent. The Browns have looked terrible at times this season, but at 2-2 they still have a chance for a decent year.
Now for a bit of a tangent: I’m not sure what to think about the whole Peyton Hillis situation. I mean, I do know what I think; I’m just bewildered by the whole thing. I would not want Hillis on my team as a player, coach, owner, or fan.
I can’t believe that there hasn’t been more coverage and talk about this story on a national level. I guess part of it is that Hillis plays for the Browns and not one of the high profile teams, but it’s not like he’s some anonymous guy playing for the Jaguars.
As you all know, I have always done my best to keep this blog focused on the games and away from the “outside noise” that the media loves to focus on. However, this is a rare instance in which I must break with tradition.
I hate to say it but I really do wonder if this story remaining under the radar nationally isn’t a result of Hillis being white, or rather, not black. These sorts of contract ploys and comments by agents and players so often draw passionate reactions from fans, and for that reason the media often dwells on those stories. But outside of Cleveland, this story seemed to disappear within a day. As a matter of fact, Hillis himself told the media that he and his agent were consciously trying to keep the story fresh because he wants to remain with the Browns (or in other words, because he wanted to use it as leverage to get a big contract).
The whole thing is disgusting in my mind and I don’t understand why more fans aren’t as offended. I hate to say it, but it may be that the common fan just doesn’t get as upset when a white player makes it all about the money. I’m not sure which is sadder: Hillis’ despicable behavior or the idea that the average white fan still resents rich black athletes more than rich white athletes. Actually, I do know which is worse, but I guess I can still hope that the latter claim is inaccurate.
As for Hillis, he is just another selfish athlete who doesn’t deserve the talent that nature has bestowed upon him. I’m usually on the side of the union against owners, but in this case, I wish the NFL would implement a rule banning the restructuring of contracts or the resigning of players during the regular season. If you want to threaten to sit out the first 4 games or something in order to get out of the contract that you agreed to, that’s disappointing, but whatever. Once the season starts, however, there should be no discussions about money and contracts. I’d welcome such a rule not because it would protect the owners, but because it would protect the fans.
Houston (+9) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comments: Just when you thought it was safe to label the Texans legit contenders. Houston is still 3-2 (3-2 ATS) and they have a +6.4 average scoring margin, but they have lost Mario Williams for the season, and Andre Johnson simply cannot stay healthy. They’ll be without both this weekend, and Matt Schaub will be playing through a shoulder injury.
The only thing that could give Houston a chance on the road against the Ravens is that Baltimore’s secondary is severely banged up. However, the Ravens are 4-0 all-time against Houston (3-1 ATS), and so far this season they have outscored opponents by 15.6 points per game. The Ravens are 3-1 overall (3-1 ATS) and 2-0 at home (2-0 ATS). Baltimore has won 5 of their last 6 out of a bye.
The Texans are 1-1 on the road so far (1-1 ATS) but historically they have struggled away from home. Last year in Houston, the Texans made a frantic comeback to tie the game and send it into overtime, but Schaub threw a pick-six that ended the game.
This is a big game for both teams for obvious reasons. The Texans seem to be the favorites in the AFC South, but they don’t want to fall to .500 after 6 games. As usual, the Ravens are going to have to battle it out with the Steelers for the division title this season. It’s usually pretty close, so every game is big for them.
New Orleans (-4.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Saints cover
Comments: Tampa Bay is reeling a bit after last week’s humiliating defeat in San Francisco. Unfortunately for the Bucs they will be without LeGarrette Blount and Gerald McCoy against New Orleans this Sunday. Not that the locals are all that concerned. This game will actually be blacked out locally. That’s not exactly a good sign.
The team is coming off of a surprising 10-6 season (their 3rd winning season in 4 years), they are 3-2 on the year, a division rival and one of the elite teams in the league (not to mention one of the more entertaining) is coming to town and they can’t sell enough tickets to beat the blackout measure? That’s bad. Considering that this is the NFL we’re talking about, it’s terrible. I guess you could say that the Bucs need a win this weekend not only to rebound from last week’s disaster and keep pace in the division, but also to try and convince their fans that they are worth rooting for.
Anyway, the Bucs are just 2-3 ATS this season. They are 2-1 so far at home (1-2 ATS) and they actually have a -7.6 average scoring margin this year despite their 3-2 record overall. Of course, anytime you lose 48-3 your average scoring margin is going to take a hit.
Overshadowed by the Packers (who did beat them in week 1), the Saints are a quiet 4-1 on the year (3-2 ATS). They are 2-1 on the road (1-2 ATS) and have outscored opponents by 6.4 points per game this season. Since losing to the Packers in the opener, the Saints have won 4 in a row (3-1 ATS). They’ll need to keep it up if they want a shot at the #1 seed in the NFC because the Packers may not lose many and they already own the tiebreaker.
These two teams have split 10 games over the last 5 seasons, and the visiting team has won 4 straight in this series.
Dallas (+6.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover
Comments: This is an interesting matchup, as Dallas DC Rob Ryan’s defense bedeviled Tom Brady last year in Cleveland, with the Patriots losing 34-14 to the Browns. The Pats have gotten back on track with a couple of impressive victories since the stunning loss against the Bills, but if Brady struggles against Ryan’s scheme again this week it might become a blueprint. That seems like a remote possibility, but the Cowboys have more talent than last year’s Browns team.
Dallas really should be undefeated at this point, but with a loss on Sunday they will find themselves with a losing record. They are 2-2 on the year so far (1-2-1 ATS), 1-1 on the road (1-0-1 ATS), and they have a -0.4 average scoring margin. New England is now 4-1 (4-1 ATS) and they are 2-0 at home (2-0 ATS). They have outscored opponents by 9.2 points a game so far.
Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead are both banged up, so Brady may not have all of his weapons this week. Tony Romo gets some help this week, as both Austin Miles and Dez Bryant are probable.
The Pats have won their last 3 against Dallas (3-0 ATS) going back to 1999.
Sunday Night’s Game
Minnesota (+3) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover
Comments: Oh goody, another night game involving the Bears. Yay.
This is a matchup of two of my least favorite QB’s of all-time. It’s a must win game for the Vikes, who finally got off the schnide last week. They are now 1-4 (2-2-1 ATS) and still 0-2 on the road (1-1 ATS). Despite just a 1-4 record, the Vikings have a +1.1 average scoring margin.
The Bears, on the other hand, are 2-3 (1-4 ATS) but they have a -3.0 average scoring margin. The Bears are 2-1 at home (1-2 ATS), but they have lost 3 of their last 4 games (0-4 ATS). In my opinion this is close to a must win game for the Bears as well. With the Lions and Packers both sitting at 5-0, Chicago can’t afford to lose a home game against a 1-4 Vikings squad.
There are some good numbers for Bears fans, however, as they have won 3 in a row against Minnesota (3-0 ATS). They have also won the last 3 (3-0 ATS) and 9 of the last 10 against the Vikes in Chicago.
Monday Night’s Game
Miami (+7) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover
Comments: Well at least the Monday night game is dec---…oh what the Fuck! The Jets again??? Against the Dolphins???
Thank Buddha for two TV’s, the mute button, and postseason baseball.
Miami is 0-4 overall (0-3-1 ATS), 0-2 on the road (0-1-1 ATS), and they have a -8.8 average scoring margin. Matt Moore is expected to be the QB now that Chad Henne is done. Miami’s head coach is viewed as a lame duck, their most talented offensive player is mentally unstable, and they don’t have a QB good enough to be starting in the NFL. They have lost 7 straight going back to last season (0-6-1 ATS) and now they have to play one of the better defensive teams in the NFL (supposedly), on the road, on MNF. However, the Dolphins have won their last 3 games against the Jets on the road, and they’ve won 4 of 5 overall in this series.
The Jets have now lost 3 in a row and they are starting to turn on each other. The team traded veteran receiver Derek Mason away this week after he made complaints about OC Brian Schottenheimer. Predictably, team officials said the trade of Mason for a 7th round pick wasn’t about sending a message in response to him criticizing the coaches. Of course if it wasn’t to send a message or try to change the mood of the locker room (which of course it was) it was an absolutely terrible move from a football stand point.
Then there was guard Brandon Moore publicly criticizing “captain” Santonio Holmes for publicly criticizing the offensive line. And then th…tha…zzzzzzzz……..huh…oh, sorry. I just got so sleepy there for a second. Anyway, the Jets are 2-3 overall (1-4 ATS) but still 2-0 at home (1-1 ATS). They have a -0.8 average scoring margin.
I think this is a bigger game for the Jets than most people seem to think. If they lose a 4th straight game things are going to get really ugly in the media and in that locker room. And that’s just the off the field stuff. A loss here would make them 2-4 and give them very little chance of winning the division. It would put them in a bad spot in the wild card hunt as well, especially with their next 3 games coming against the Chargers, at Buffalo, and against the Patriots respectively.
For the Dolphins, they obviously don’t want to have to wait until week 14 to get their first win the way they did back in 2007. But to be honest I’m not sure a win would do that much to save coach Tony Sparano’s job. He has seemed like a dead coach walking for a while now.
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