Last Week’s Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 5-5; Vs. Spread: 3-7)
Overall (Straight Up: 34-16; Vs. Spread: 25-24-1; Moneyline Upsets: 2-1)
Season Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 42-28; Vs. Spread: 27-42-1)
Overall (Straight Up: 249-86; Vs. Spread: 164-160-4; Moneyline Upsets: 11-13)
Week 7 Review: Basically survival, but I’ll take it. There’s a long way to go, but at this point it may actually be too late to do anything about my record ATS in the biggest 10 games. At least I’ve hung around in the quest to finish .500 in moneyline upset picks.
Week 8 Preview: I’m a bit rushed this week with the game on Tuesday. I know I say this seemingly every week, but this is not a great slate of college football. Once again it took me a long time to find the biggest 10 games. And once again there simply aren’t 10 truly big games this week. The reason that this might actually be the weakest slate of the season to date is that there really isn’t a single huge game this week.
Saturday
Game 1: Oklahoma State (-7) @ Missouri
Pick: Oklahoma State covers
Comments: I was a little bit surprised by this spread. The Cowboys were likewise favored by a touchdown over Texas last Saturday. Perhaps Vegas considers a contest at Missouri to be equally as challenging as a game at Texas (or maybe even more of a challenge, considering that Ok State won by 12 at Texas). The Tigers have been one of the more consistently good programs in the nation this millennium, but I’m not sure they are good enough this season to stay within 7 of the Cowboys, even at home.
Okie State is 6-0 and 5-1 ATS. They are 3-0 on the road (3-0 ATS) and have won 5 straight ATS. Mizzu is just 3-3 overall (4-2 ATS) but the Tigers are 3-0 at home (2-1 ATS). They have won 4 of 5 ATS. Oklahoma State has established itself as more than just a high scoring offensive team. They are 17-2 since the start of last season (15-4 ATS).
As you might imagine, Missouri holds the upper hand in this series all-time: 28-22 (one of the rare series to have as many as 50 games played and no ties). The series began in 1915, with Missouri winning 15 of the first 17 meetings. Since 1971, however, Ok State has held a 20-13 edge. The Tigers won 4 straight from 1996-2001, but the Cowboys have since won 3 of 4 (3-1 ATS), including the last 2 at Mizzu.
Game 2: North Carolina (+10.5) @ Clemson
Pick: Clemson covers
Comments: This is a big game for Clemson. It’s certainly a game they should win but they can’t afford to take a team like UNC lightly at this point. The Heels are coming off of a disappointing loss to Miami at home that dropped them to 5-2 on the year (3-4 ATS ). 5-2 seems like a solid record for a team that has gone through the NCAA ringer over the last couple of years, but looking at their schedule going into the year, 5-2 at this point was a minimum (assuming wins vs. James Madison, Rutgers, UVA, Louisville, and at ECU). They are 1-1 on the road so far (1-1 ATS) and they have lost 3 of 4 ATS).
Clemson, meanwhile, has gone from dark horse ACC contender to clearly the best team in the conference. The Tigers are 7-0 overall (6-1 ATS) and 5-0 at home (4-1 ATS). They have won 5 straight ATS.
This series began in 1897, and as you might expect, Clemson holds the edge all-time: 34-19-1. The two teams went 41 seasons between meetings at one point, playing in 1957 for the first time since 1915. They would then meet every season through 2003, but this will be just their 3rd meeting since then. UNC won last year to snap a 3-game losing streak in the series. The Tigers have won the last 2 meetings at Death Valley (Clemson Version).
Game 3: Kansas State (-11.5) @ Kansas
Pick: Kansas State covers
Comments: 109th meeting. The first battle was in 1902. Traditionally, Kansas is the “big brother” in this in-state rivalry, and the Jayhawks hold a commanding 65-38-5 edge in the all-time series. However, that overall record does not tell the recent history of this series, which has been profoundly impacted by Bill Snyder, KSU head coach and the virtual creator of the Kansas State program. The Wildcats did the unthinkable during Snyder’s first tenure as HC (1989-2005), not only becoming the dominant program in the state, but also becoming a true national power.
The program—and its hold on this series—slipped during Snyder’s retirement (2006-2008), but he has returned and has begun to restore. The Wildcats have won 14 of the 18 in this series (all 4 losses coming since 2004) including the last 2 meetings (with Snyder back as HC of course).
The only downer is that this thing is apparently referred to as the Sunflower Showdown. I guess it’s fine because it is after all a battle for the Sunflower State, but it just doesn’t sound as rugged as The Border War (as the rivalry between Kansas and Missouri is called). Kansas’ history is not a peaceful one, and perhaps this would offend some and make light of things still sensitive for Kansans, but I’d call this thing Bleeding Kansas. Just kidding. No actually I’m serious.
If Clemson has been a surprise, Kansas State has been an absolute stunner. The Wildcats are now bowl eligible with 6 games to go. They are 6-0 overall (5-1 ATS) and 2-0 on the road (2-0 ATS). They’ve won 5 in a row ATS.
Kansas, on the other hand, is struggling. The Jayhawks got rid of that fat Mangino guy but they’ve certainly taken a few steps back in the years since his firing. They are 2-4 overall (3-3 ATS) and 2-2 at home (3-1 ATS). They’ve lost 4 in a row (1-3 ATS). They are clearly the worst team in the Big XII again this season, but they’re not quite as bad as I thought they were going to be. It’s unlikely that they’d be able to shock their rivals, as they’ve allowed at least 42 points in all 5 of their games against FBS competition, but much stranger things have happened.
Game 4: Georgia Tech (+2.5) @ Miami
Pick: Georgia Tech pulls off the upset
Comments: The Jackets put their stamp on their own season last week, coming up with the sort of loss that they have suffered at least once a year annually since 1991 (maybe beyond if you consider their tie with UNC in 1990 that sort of loss), spanning coaching staffs and involving a dozen different opponents.
Now GT has to try and rebound from their season shattering loss to UVA with a win on the road against a Miami team coming off of a possible season saving win at UNC. The Jackets are still 6-1 overall (4-2-1 ATS) but they are 0-2-1 ATS in their last 3. They are 2-1 on the road (1-1-1 ATS). The Canes are 3-3 overall (3-3 ATS) and 2-1 at home (1-2 ATS).
Miami has won the last 2 in this series (2-0 ATS) but Tech had won 4 straight and 8 of 10 prior to that. GT holds a somewhat surprising 10-6 record in this series that began in 1955. However, the first 8 meetings occurred between 1955 and 1978 (prior to Miami’s arrival as a national power) and the teams did not meet again until 2000. The last 7 meetings have occurred since 2004. Thus 13 of the 16 meetings have occurred outside the era of Miami national prominence (roughly 1980 through 2005). In addition, only 4 of the 16 meetings have taken place in Miami.
Game 5: Auburn (+22.5) @ LSU
Pick: Auburn beats the spread
Comments: As far as I know, this SEC West battle has no official name. It really doesn’t need a name. It’s just annual war between a couple highly ranked teams that lives up to the billing more often than most games.
These two proud programs first squared off in 1901 but Saturday’s game will be just the 45th meeting (LSU holds the all-time edge: 24-20-1). This series has gone through spurts of frequency. They met 6 times from 1901 to 1913 but then not again until 1924. After playing 3 times from 1924 to 1927, the two teams didn’t see each other again until 1934. Beginning that year, these two faced each other in 9 straight seasons through 1942. That run was followed by the biggest break in the series, as they did not meet again until 1969. Four 2-year sets would take place over the next 20 years, with the teams playing in 1969-1970, 1972-1973, 1980-1981, and 1988-1989. In 1992 (with the expansion of the SEC into two 6-team divisions) LSU and Auburn began to meet on an annual basis and they’ve done so ever since.
It has been during these last 20 years that the rivalry has become one of the best and most underrated in college football. Auburn holds a 10-9 edge in the 19 meetings since divisional play began. Going back to 1988, 13 of 21 between these two have been decided by 7 points or less, including 6 of the last 7. Auburn won last year but they haven’t beaten LSU twice in a row since 1999-2000. Auburn has lost 5 straight at LSU since their last win their in 1999.
The defending national champs are 5-2 overall this season (3-4 ATS) and 1-2 on the road (1-2 ATS). LSU is 7-0 overall (5-2 ATS) and 4-0 at home (2-2 ATS). They are #1 in the first BCS standings of the year. One issue for Auburn: WR Emory Blake is a question mark with a knee injury.
Game 6: Tennessee (+28.5) @ Alabama
Pick: Alabama covers
Comments: Is this rivalry still called the 3rd Saturday in October? It should be, even though it’s rarely played on that date anymore. The first edition was in 1901. Bama holds a 48-37-8 all-time edge in the series. The Tide have won 4 straight in this rivalry (3-1 ATS) and 3 straight at home against Tennessee (1-1-1 ATS).
This shouldn’t be one of the more competitive games in this series, as Bama is perhaps the best team in the country, and Tennessee is 0-3 in the SEC and will be without QB Tyler Bray. Bama is 7-0 overall (6-1 ATS) and 4-0 at home (3-1 ATS). They’ve won 4 straight ATS. UT is 3-3 overall (2-2-2 ATS) and 0-1 on the road (0-0-1 ATS).
Game 7: USC (+8) @ Notre Dame
Pick: USC beats the spread
Comments: This glam rivalry is again a bit of an afterthought this year. USC is actually 5-1 overall this season (3-3 ATS) but their ceiling is limited by the NCAA’s ridiculous sanctions, and they haven’t been very impressive anyway. Notre Dame has won 4 straight (3-1 ATS) since beginning the year 0-2. The Irish are now 4-2 overall (3-3 ATS) and 2-1 at home (2-1 ATS). USC is 1-1 on the road (1-1 ATS). The Trojans figure to be at a major disadvantage without RB Marc Tyler.
Last year Notre Dame snapped an 8-game losing streak in this series (barley), but they’ve still lost 4 straight at home. ND holds a 43-34-5 edge in this series, first played in 1926.
Game 8: Washington (+20) @ Stanford
Pick: Stanford covers
Comments: This would look like a really big game if Stanford didn’t beat everyone by 30 points a game. Stanford’s transformation has been remarkable. Just a few years ago they looked to be hopelessly hamstrung by academic standards, not unlike programs such as Duke, Northwestern, and Vanderbilt. From 2002 through 2006 Stanford went 16-40 (10-31 in the Pac-10), burning through 2 coaches, and bottoming out with a 1-11 season in 2006.
In 2007 Stanford hired former NFL QB Jim Harbaugh. The rookie coach talked a lot. The Cardinal (or Indians) went just 4-8 that first year, but they pulled off 3 upsets as at least 13-point underdogs, including the greatest upset I personally have ever seen, a 24-23 win at #2 USC as a 41-point dog (the other two upsets were at Arizona as 13-point dog and vs. Cal as 13.5-point dog.). The next season they went 5-7, their 7th consecutive losing season, but they went 4-1 at home after going just 3-16 at home over the 3 previous seasons.
In 2009 Stanford got over the hump behind RB Toby Gerhart, going 8-5 (6-3 in Pac-10) and nearly upsetting Oklahoma in the Sun Bowl. Last year Stanford took it to another level behind QB Andrew Luck, going 12-1 and blowing out Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Their only defeat was at Oregon, a game in which they held a huge halftime lead, against a team that would eventually go to the BCS title game. Jim Harbaugh left after the year but Luck stunned everyone and decided to say.
For at least one more year, the climb has continued. Stanford is 6-0 overall (6-0 ATS) and 3-0 at home (3-0 ATS). They’ve now won 14 straight and 18 of 19 going back to the start of last season. They’ve won 9 straight ATS and they are 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12. They’ve won 10 straight and 20 of their last 22 at home. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 games by at least 25 points.
Washington is quietly having a solid year so far. They are 5-1 overall (5-1 ATS) and 1-1 on the road (2-0 ATS). They’ve won 3 in a row and 5 straight ATS.
Stanford has won the last 3 in this series (3-0 ATS) and 5 of the last 6 (4-1-1 ATS). Last year’s 41-0 win at Washington was the biggest margin of victory for either team in this series that began in 1893. As you might guess, Washington holds the edge all-time, but not by as much as you might think: 40-37-4.
Game 9: Wisconsin (-9) @ Michigan State
Pick: Wisconsin covers
Comments: So this is the biggest game of the week, and you could probably make an argument that it’s a really big game. I just don’t think MSU is that good, but they were the only team in the Big Ten to beat Wisconsin last year, and once again the game will be played in East Lansing.
The Badgers have yet to play a true road game this season. They are 6-0 (5-0-1 ATS) this season and they are 12-0-1 ATS in their last 13 going back to last year. The Badgers hope to have WR Nick Toon (Foot) for this one. The Spartans are 5-1 overall (4-2 ATS) and 4-0 at home (3-1 ATS). They’ve won their last 3 games (3-0 ATS) and they’re coming off of another victory over rival Michigan.
The visitor has won 6 straight in this series, with MSU winning the last 3 in East Lansing. Wisconsin hasn’t won at Michigan State since 2002. The Badgers are just 10-10 on the road in the Big Ten under Bret Bielema.
I’m not sure if this series has a trophy or not but I assume it does. These two first meet in 1913. As you might imagine, MSU holds the edge in the all-time series: 29-20.
Game 10: Texas Tech (+28) @ Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comments: Texas Tech is 4-2 overall (4-2 ATS) and 2-0 on the road (2-0 ATS), but the Red Raiders are reeling a bit after losing 2 straight at home to Texas A&M and KSU. The Sooners are on cruise control at 6-0 (4-2 ATS) and of course 3-0 at home (2-1 ATS). They’ve won 11 straight going back to last season and they’re just about unbeatable in Norman, where they’ve won 32 straight Big XII games.
WR Kenny Stills is a question mark this week with a calf issue. Texas Tech will be without RB Eric Stephens for the rest of the year.
The Red Raiders have been a real pain in the fanny for the Sooners in recent years. The two teams first met in 1992, and Oklahoma holds a 13-5 edge in the series, but they’re just 3-3 against Texas Tech since 2005. However, those losses have come on the road. The home team has won 7 straight in this series. Oklahoma is 8-1 against Texas Tech in Norman, having won 7 straight, with the only home loss coming in 1996.
Other Games
Tuesday
Florida International (+3) @ Arkansas State (Ark State covers)
Thursday
Central Florida (-15) @ UAB (UAB beats the spread)
UCLA (+3) @ Arizona (UCLA pulls off the upset)
Friday
Rutgers (+2) @ Louisville (Rutgers pulls off the upset)
West Virginia (-13.5) @ Syracuse (WV covers)
Saturday
Cincinnati (+2.5) @ South Florida (Cincinnati pulls off the upset)
Northern Illinois (-14.5) @ Buffalo (Buffalo beats the spread)
Indiana (+23) @ Iowa (Iowa covers)
Illinois (-5.5) @ Purdue (Illinois covers)
Arkansas (-17) @ Mississippi (Arkansas covers)
Wake Forest (-3) @ Duke (WF covers)
Western Michigan (-13) @ Eastern Michigan (WM covers)
Central Michigan (+1) @ Ball State (BSU covers)
New Mexico (+41.5) @ TCU (TCU covers)
Louisiana Tech (+6.5) @ Utah State (Utah St covers)
Boston College (+20.5) @ Virginia Tech (VT covers)
NC State (+4) @ Virginia (UVA covers)
Ohio (-14.5) @ Akron (Ohio covers)
Temple (-12.5) @ Bowling Green (Temple covers)
Texas A&M (-20) @ Iowa State (A&M covers)
Oregon (-32.5) @ Colorado (Oregon covers)
Maryland (+17) @ Florida State (Maryland beats the spread)
Air Force (+31) @ Boise State (Boise State covers)
Nebraska (-24.5) @ Minnesota (Minnesota beats the spread)
Eastern Carolina (+8.5) @ Navy (Navy covers)
Memphis (+13) @ Tulane (Memphis beats the spread)
Louisiana-Lafayette (-3) @ Western Kentucky (ULL covers)
Fresno State (+10.5) @ Nevada (Nevada covers)
Marshall (+20) @ Houston (Houston covers)
Louisiana-Monroe (-6) @ North Texas (ULM covers)
Army (+8.5) @ Vanderbilt (Vandy covers)
Tulsa (-11) @ Rice (Tulsa covers)
Utah (+3) @ California (Cal covers)
Miami (Ohio) (+17.5) @ Toledo (Toledo covers)
Penn State (-4) @ Northwestern (NW beats the spread)
Colorado State (+7.5) @ UTEP (CSU beats the spread)
Middle Tennessee State (-6.5) @ Florida Atlantic (MTS covers)
SMU (+3) @ Southern Mississippi (SMU beats the spread)
Oregon State (+3) @ Washington State (Wash St covers)
New Mexico State (+21) @ Hawaii (Hawaii covers)
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