Thursday, October 20, 2011

The College Football Blog: 2011 Season Résumé Rankings (After Week 7)

Season Résumé Rankings after Week 7

1. LSU 7-0 (1st)

2. Alabama 7-0 (2nd)

3. Oklahoma 6-0 (3rd)

4. Oklahoma State 6-0 (6th)

5. Clemson 7-0 (4th)

6. Boise State 6-0 (5th)

7. Kansas State 6-0 (10th)

8. Wisconsin 6-0 (9th)

9. Stanford 6-0 (NR)

10. Houston 6-0 (NR)

Out: Michigan (7th); Illinois (8th).

Explanation: LSU and Alabama are still far above the rest of the competition in these rankings, and they stayed at #1 and #2 respectively this week. Oklahoma also held on at #3, as the top 3 spots in my rankings were unchanged this week. 2 teams fell out of the résumé rankings this week and were replaced by teams filling the final 2 spots in the top 10. Of the teams remaining in the top 10 this week, Kansas State made the biggest jump, climbing 3 spots to #7. Of the teams remaining in the top 10, Clemson and Boise State were the only ones to drop, with both teams falling a spot to #5 and #6 respectively.

You will notice, once again, that the résumé rankings are made up completely of undefeated teams, despite the fact that a few of these teams have played relatively light competition. Actually, the 10 teams in these rankings are the only remaining undefeated teams in college football. Very few of the 1-loss teams have played good enough schedules to even merit consideration for the top 10 at this point. In addition, 9 of the undefeated teams in the top 10 are solid locks over any of the 1-loss teams at this point.

There are two problems, however. Firstly, there are a few 1-loss teams that do have fairly impressive résumés. More importantly, the 1 undefeated team that isn’t a solid lock over any 1-loss team (Houston) has a résumé that is wholly unimpressive. As a result, it actually took me a long time to figure out my #10 team this week.

The main problem isn’t a new one. It’s simply a difficult task to compare undefeated teams to 1-loss teams. For example: is a “good loss” equal to a “bad win?” If a team loses on the road against the best team in the country you might call it a “good loss.” But what if they lose by 24 points? As you can see, it’s a tough task.

I strongly considered putting a 1-loss team at #10 and keeping Houston out, but in the end I stuck with the 10 undefeated teams. That was certainly the easiest option to go with, and in all honesty that probably did have something to do with my decision. However, the deciding factor was that no team had a résumé that I thought was clearly better than Houston’s when you factored in their defeat. So for at least 1 more week these rankings will be made up completely of undefeated teams.

1. LSU: 7-0 (won at Tennessee, 38-7). LSU retains the #1 spot this week. The Bayou Bengals are 6-0 against FBS teams and 3-0 on the road. They also have a win on a neutral field. They have 5 quality wins: vs. Oregon (at Arlington), at Mississippi State, at West Virginia, vs. Florida, and at Tennessee. Their average margin of victory is 26.7 points and they’ve won each game this season by at least 13 points.

2. Alabama: 7-0 (won at Mississippi, 52-7). Bama stays at #2 this week. Bama is 7-0 against FBS teams and 3-0 on the road. They have 3 quality wins: at Penn State, vs. Arkansas, and at Florida. The Tide have won each game by at least 16 points this season and their average margin of victory is 32.7 points.

3. Oklahoma: 6-0 (won at Kansas, 47-17). Oklahoma holds at #3 this week. The Sooners are 6-0 against FBS teams and 2-0 on the road (they also have a win on a neutral field). They have 4 quality wins: vs. Tulsa, at Florida State, vs. Missouri, and vs. Texas (at Dallas). They’ve won each game by at least 10 points and their average margin of victory is 29.5 points.

4. Oklahoma State: 6-0 (won at Texas, 38-26). Oklahoma State climbs 2 spots to #4 this week. They are 6-0 against FBS teams and 3-0 on the road. The Cowboys have 3 quality wins: at Tulsa, at Texas A&M, and at Texas. Their average margin of victory is 21.9 points.

5. Clemson: 7-0 (won at Maryland, 56-45). Clemson drops a spot to #5 this week. They are 6-0 against FBS teams and 2-0 on the road. The Tigers have 3 quality wins: vs. Auburn, vs. FSU, and at Virginia Tech. They have won each game this season by at least 11 points and their average margin of victory is 14.9 points.

6. Boise State: 6-0 (won at Colorado State, 63-13). Boise State falls back a spot to #6. They are 6-0 against FBS teams and 3-0 on the road (they also have a win on a neutral field). The Broncos have 4 quality wins: vs. Georgia (at Atlanta), at Toledo, vs. Tulsa, and vs. Nevada. They have won each game by at least 14 points and they have an average margin of victory of 29.8 points.

7. Kansas State: 6-0 (won at Texas Tech, 41-34). Kansas State jumps 3 spots to #7 this week. The Wildcats are 5-0 against FBS teams and 2-0 on the road. They have 4 quality wins: at Miami, vs. Baylor, vs. Missouri, and at Texas Tech. KSU’s average margin of victory is 9.8 points.

8. Wisconsin: 6-0 (won vs. Wisconsin, 59-7). Wisconsin moves up a spot to #8. They are 5-0 against FBS teams. They have a win on a neutral field but they have yet to play a true road game. The Badgers have 1 quality win: vs. Nebraska. They have won all of their games by at least 31 points. Their average margin of victory is 40.5.

9. Stanford: 6-0 (won at Washington State, 44-14). Stanford enters the rankings at #9 this week. They are 6-0 against FBS teams and 3-0 on the road. Stanford does not have a legitimately quality win. They have won all of their games by at least 26 points. Their average margin of victory is 34.6.

10. Houston: 6-0 (won vs. East Carolina, 56-3). Houston jumps into the rankings at #10 this week. The Cougars are 5-0 against FBS teams and 3-0 on the road. They don’t have a legitimately quality win. Houston’s average margin of victory is 24.3 points.

Teams Falling Out of the Rankings

Michigan: 6-1 (lost at Michigan State, 14-28). Michigan was soundly defeated by Michigan State on the road last Saturday and they fall out of the rankings from #7 this week.

Illinois: 6-1 (lost vs. Ohio State, 7-17). Illinois fell at home to Ohio State last week and they fall out of the rankings from #8.

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