Last Week’s Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 9-1; Vs. Spread: 5-5)
Overall (Straight Up: 43-9; Vs. Spread: 31-21; Moneyline Upsets: 1-1)
Season Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 37-23; Vs. Spread: 24-35-1)
Overall (Straight Up: 215-70; Vs. Spread: 139-136-3; Moneyline Upsets: 9-12)
Week 6 Review: Finally a decent week. Sure, I only went .500 ATS in the biggest 10 games, and I was just 1-1 picking moneyline upsets, but I’m just not going to complain right now. It was getting really bad, and last week at least stemmed the tide.
Week 7 Preview: I need to make it back to back positive weeks in order to really get back on track. As for the schedule, this will be the 3rd truly weak slate of college football in the last 4 weeks. And this week is probably the weakest one yet. I know I said this about week 4 and week 6, but it took me even longer to come up with the 10 biggest games this week (and trust me, I’m using the word “biggest” very loosely here). You never know though; sometimes this sort of week in the college football season ends up being wild.
Saturday
Game 1: Michigan (+2) @ Michigan State
Pick: Michigan pulls off the upset
Comments: Interesting spread. Michigan’s other rival will be looking to ruin what so far has been a dream first season for head coach Brady Hoke. The Wolverines are 6-0 (5-1 ATS), while the Spartans are 4-1 (3-2 ATS). MSU has won 3 straight in this series (3-0 ATS) for the first time since 1965-67. Prior to this 3-year run for the Spartans, the Wolverines had defeated MSU 6 straight times (5-1 ATS).
Going into the season I liked Michigan State in this one, but Michigan’s defense has been much better than most people expected. The question is how well Denard Robinson will perform against Sparty this time around. Last year he committed 3 very costly turnovers in the loss. This is probably the biggest test of the season for Michigan. At the same time, we really don’t know if MSU is any good or not at this point.
Game 2: South Carolina (-3) @ Mississippi State
Pick: South Carolina covers
Comments: The Stephen Garcia Era is official over in Columbia and that has to be a good thing. Connor Shaw looked good last week against Kentucky, but while Miss State has taken a step back this season, they will surely be a tougher test defensively in Starkville this week. Mississippi State is another puzzling team. We still don’t really know if they’re any good or not either.
The Maroon Dogs are 3-3 (just 1-5 ATS, having lost 5 straight ATS), but it has actually been their last 2 victories which have disappointed me the most. Playing at home in week 4 against Louisiana Tech—a team which simply isn’t any good at all—the Maroon Dogs had to go to OT to secure a victory. Last week Miss State was at UAB—another team that is just plain not any good at all—and they actually trailed 3-0 at halftime, and only led 7-3 after 3 quarters before going on to win 21-3. Surprisingly, it was backup QB Tyler Russell who led the Bulldogs’ 21-0 2nd half surge.
This game could end up being all about a couple of backup QB’s trying to save their teams’ seasons. The Maroon Dogs may actually go back to Chris Reif to start this game, but the leash ought to be short. Miss State has lost 5 straight ATS since covering against Memphis in week 1. SC has won the last 5 in this series (5-0 ATS).
Game 3: Baylor (+9) @ Texas A&M
Pick: Baylor beats the spread
Comments: A big game for both teams, as Baylor is trying to live up to the hype that QB Robert Griffin has created (and trying to convince their fans that there’s actually something to be excited about), and Texas A&M is trying to make something out of a season that has been mostly nightmarish so far. I was a little bit surprised that this spread was nearly double digits, as the Aggies have struggled to put teams away (bit of an understatement).
However, Baylor has not had much luck in College Station historically. They haven’t won there since 1984, going 0-11-1 there since. The Aggies have won 8 of 10 in this series overall. Last year Baylor actually had a 30-14 lead at home, but they self destructed, getting shutout the rest of the way while the Aggies scored 42 points. Baylor is 4-1 (4-1 ATS) this season, while A&M is 2-3 (just 1-4 ATS).
Game 4: Ohio State (+4) @ Illinois
Pick: Ohio State beats the spread
Comments: It’s been about 9 months straight of bad news for the Buckeyes, but they finally should have something to feel good about this week, as suspended RB Dan Herron is expected to make his season debut. Of course WR DeVier Posey will not be able to play this week, but the Buckeyes may get another boost, as QB Braxton Miller is supposedly ready to go this week after getting knocked out of last Saturday’s loss to Nebraska. The Buckeyes offense has simply been too inept for them to compete for most of this season, but Miller and Herron might be able to turn this around.
This is actually a big game for both teams. Ohio State (3-3, 3-3 ATS) has games left against Wisconsin, Penn State, and at Michigan. If they lose this game they could very well end up going just 6-6 this season, or even worse, there would be a chance for them to go 5-7 and stay home for the bowl season. Illinois is 6-0 (3-3 ATS), so this obviously a very big game for them. The Buckeyes have won 3 straight and 6 of 7 in this series.
Strangely, Illinois’ recent upsets in this series have occurred at Columbus. They’ve lost 8 straight to Ohio State at home, but they nearly ended that streak last year. Illinois drove into Ohio State territory trailing only 17-10 with under 5 minutes to go, but on 4th and 7 from the 15 they chose to kick a FG. It’s certainly not safe to assume that there is some reasonable idea behind any Ron Zook decision, but in this case there was. Terrelle Pryor had been knocked out of the game, and since that point the Buckeyes had employed an offensive strategy so conservative it made Pat Buchanan look like a moderate (this included running on 24 of their final 28 offensive plays). The Buckeyes stayed with their safe offensive strategy, but they ran in down Illinois’ throat, scoring a TD to make the final score 24-13.
Game 5: Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ Texas
Pick: Oklahoma State covers
Comments: The Cowboys were off last week while the Longhorns were getting sexually assaulted in Dallas. Unfortunately for Texas (4-1, 3-2 ATS), it could be a similar experience in Austin this week. Okie State (5-0, 4-1 ATS) has won twice on the road this season and they won on the road against Texas just last season. Their 33-16 victory snapped a 12-game losing streak against the Longhorns and was their first win in Austin since 1944.
Texas is 22-3 all-time against Oklahoma State but last year’s game was not as competitive as the final score indicated, as the Cowboys actually led 33-3 early in the 4th. However, Texas has never lost back to back games against Okie State. The Longhorns have also won the game after the Red River Rivalry the last 13 years.
Game 6: Georgia Tech (-7) @ Virginia
Pick: Georgia Tech covers
Comments: At 6-0 (4-1-1 ATS), Tech has amazingly already matched last year’s win total, assuring a trip to their 15th consecutive bowl. Virginia (3-2, 1-4 ATS) is a team that has given the Jackets trouble over the years, but they aren’t any good at all this year, and this GT team might be above the sort of slipups they usually have during the course of a season. Last week’s game against Maryland was exactly the sort of game that Tech normally would have found a way to lose. They turned the ball over, blew a bunch of scoring opportunities, and let an average team hang around. But in the end they hung on to win.
Tech’s prolific offensive numbers have gone down since the start of ACC play, but that was to be expected. They’ve won twice on the road already this season. UVA has lost 4 straight against the spread. They needed OT to beat Idaho at home last week and they lost at home to Southern Miss the week before that. Earlier this season they needed a miracle to beat Indiana.
Tech has won back to back games in this series for the first time since 1990-91. That 1990 game is an enormous one in the histories of both programs. It marked the end of a dream for Virginia and really was the beginning of a dream for Georgia Tech. Tech’s 41-38 win in Charlottesville spoiled UVA’s perfect season (had started 7-0, winning games in dominant fashion), and was the turning point in the Jackets dream season that ended with a share of the national title. UVA would lose 4 of their last 5 to finish 8-4, while the Jackets would finish 11-0-1.
In terms of the national title hunt, neither team has been relevant since. The two teams were near equals in terms of being consistently mediocre for the next 15 years, but while Tech has continued that run, Virginia has clearly fallen off as a program over the last 5 to 7 years. Tech hasn’t won 3 straight against UVA since winning the first 6 games in this series between 1965 and 1983. The all-time series is tied up at 16-16-1. The visitor is just 3-13 in this series since 1995, but Tech won their last time at Virginia in 2009.
Game 7: Clemson (-8) @ Maryland
Pick: Clemson covers
Comments: Clemson comes into this game as one of the most surprising teams in the country. They are 6-0 (5-1 ATS) and they dominated Virginia Tech on the road just two weeks ago. Maryland is just 2-3 (2-3 ATS) and 3 weeks ago they were dominated at home by Temple. Seems like a mismatch, but the potential absence of Clemson QB Tajh Boyd could change that. He was back at practice on Wednesday but he’s still highly questionable for this weekend’s game with an injured hip. The Tigers are 17-7 vs. Maryland since 1987, and they should be able to win this one even without Boyd. However, if Clemson has to turn to true freshman Cole Stoudt, their chances of losing will increase significant.
Game 8: Florida (-2) @ Auburn
Pick: Florida covers
Comments: This rivalry game isn’t played annually anymore, but it’s almost always good. Auburn has won 2 straight and 3 of 4 in this series. This is a big game for both teams, especially in light of their remaining schedules. The Gators (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS) looked to be a surprise contender in the East after they got off to a 4-0 start, but their ridiculous schedule and an injury to QB John Brantley have derailed their season. After this game they have Georgia, South Carolina (on the road), and FSU left to play. If Florida falls at Auburn this Saturday it will be the second straight season that they began the year 4-0 before suffering a 3-game losing skid.
Auburn (4-2, 2-4 ATS) has road games at LSU and UGA left, along with the season finale against Bama. While the Gators are trying to show improvement, the Tigers are just trying not to fall too far in this rebuilding season after winning the title last year. Auburn already got some great news this week, as the NCAA announced that no major violations were found in the investigation of Cam Newton’s recruitment.
Florida’s news hasn’t been as good, as they learned that Brantley would be out again this Saturday. That means that one of their two true freshmen quarterbacks will have to try and lead the Gators to a win, something neither was able to do against Bama or LSU in the last two weeks. Auburn is 3-0 at home this season and they’ve won their last two games against Florida at home.
Game 9: Kansas State (+3) @ Texas Tech
Pick: Texas Tech covers
Comments: I know this isn’t really a big game but it actually does intrigue me. KSU has been a nice story, starting 5-0 (4-1 ATS), with surprising wins at Miami and at home against Baylor and Missouri. However, this will be a tough road contest against the Red Raiders. Next week they’ll play at Kansas, and while the Jayhawks are certainly one of the worst BCS conference teams in the nation, it is still a rivalry game.
The schedule after that is a little tougher: vs. Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, vs. Texas A&M, at Texas. It isn’t hard to imagine the nice little story turning sad. If they win the next two, the worst that could happen is that they go 7-5. On the other hand, if they lose one of the next two games, they could be 6-5 going into the season finale against Iowa State. That would be a bummer after starting 5-0.
Texas Tech (4-1, 4-1 ATS) suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling at home to A&M. They also suffered a huge loss in the injury department, with do everything RB Eric Stephens going down for the season. Kansas State hasn’t won in Lubbock since 1997. Texas Tech has been on another level than KSU in recent years, winning 5 in a row in the series, and putting up at least 58 points in the last 3. In 2009 they amassed 739 yards against KSU. But of course, that was before Bill Snyder returned and Mike Leach was kicked out.
Game 10: Arizona State (+14.5) @ Oregon
Pick: Oregon covers
Comments: First things first: despite some tough talk after last week’s game, LaMichael James will not play in the showdown with ASU this Saturday. James might be the best player in all of college football, and ASU (5-1, 2-4 ATS) comes into the game hot, having won 3 straight against conference opponents, including blowout wins over USC and at Utah. And yet, Oregon will almost certainly win by double digits. That’s pretty amazing when you think about it.
It’s just hard to give ASU much of a chance. Oregon has plenty of talent on offense even without James, and they’ve won 19 straight at home. ASU is just 5-13 on the road since the start of the 2008 season. Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) has won 6 straight in this series. Most people probably don’t remember but last year’s game at Tempe in week 4 was not the usual Oregon blowout. ASU led 24-14 late in the 2nd and they actually ended up outgaining Oregon by 212 yards. Oregon ended up winning 41-32, thanks in large part to 7 Sun Devil turnovers.
Other Games
Thursday
San Diego State (+7) @ Air Force (SD State beats the spread)
USC (-3) @ California (USC covers)
Friday
Hawaii (-6) @ San Jose State (SJS pulls off the upset)
Saturday
Toledo (-7) @ Bowling Green (Toledo covers)
Purdue (+11.5) @ Penn State (PSU covers)
Utah (+7) @ Pittsburgh (Pitt covers)
Indiana (+39.5) @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin covers)
Louisville (+16.5) @ Cincinnati (Cincinnati covers)
Miami (+3) @ North Carolina (UNC covers)
Buffalo (+21) @ Temple (Buffalo beats the spread)
Navy (+4) @ Rutgers (Rutgers covers)
Iowa State (+14.5) @ Missouri (Missouri covers)
UNLV (+10.5) @ Wyoming (Wyoming covers)
Eastern Michigan (+12.5) @ Central Michigan (CM covers)
Florida State (-13.5) @ Duke (FSU covers)
Rice (+4.5) @ Marshall (Rice beats the spread)
Miami (Ohio) (-3.5) @ Kent State (Kent State beats the spread)
Colorado (+14.5) @ Washington (Washington covers)
Ball State (+14.5) @ Ohio (Ohio covers)
South Florida (-7.5) @ Connecticut (UConn beats the spread)
Western Michigan (-1) @ Northern Illinois (WM covers)
Central Florida (+3) @ SMU (SMU covers)
LSU (-17) @ Tennessee (LSU covers)
UTEP (+1.5) @ Tulane (Tulane covers)
BYU (+2.5) @ Oregon State (BYU pulls off the upset)
Western Kentucky (+3) @ Florida Atlantic (FAU covers)
New Mexico (+30) @ Nevada (Nevada covers)
North Texas (+8.5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL covers)
Boise State (-31.5) @ Colorado State (Boise State covers)
Alabama (-25.5) @ Mississippi (Alabama covers)
Virginia Tech (-7) @ Wake Forest (VT covers)
East Carolina (-14.5) @ Memphis (ECU covers)
Georgia (-10.5) @ Vanderbilt (UGA covers)
Northwestern (+6.5) @ Iowa (NW beats the spread)
Louisiana-Monroe (+9) @ Troy (ULM beats the spread)
Stanford (-21) @ Washington State (Stanford covers)
Idaho (+1) @ North Mexico State (NMS covers)
UAB (+20.5) @ Tulsa (Tulsa covers)
Oklahoma (-36) @ Kansas (Oklahoma covers)
Utah State (-3.5) @ Fresno State (Utah State covers)
No comments:
Post a Comment