The Braves Blog: Final Series Preview

3 Games, 3 Days, Just 1 Thing: Go the Distance

Just days remain in the last and strangest of Bobby Cox’s seasons as Braves manager. We hope with all hope that a few days from now we can sit back and reflect on this thing, knowing that it was all worth it. There is now only one goal and one concern: just get there. Just finish this thing off. Just hold the line. Just get it done. Go the distance.

It’s October and we’ve got a shot to get to October

The final weekend of the season is upon us, and here we are still. Going into the season, we knew it was going to take a lot for the Braves to be in the mix this late in the year. They were still alive going into the final week of the season in 2007, and they almost made it to the final weekend last year. This time the Braves will be in the mix all the way to the end.

It’s a pretty exciting time for us Braves people. It’s been a wild ride. My feeling at this moment is one of excitement, but I know that when the time comes for play to begin on Friday night I will be too nervous to describe the feeling with as pleasant sounding a word as “excitement.”

There were so many possibilities going into this week. It’s a relief to finally know exactly where we stand with only 3 days left in the season. The fates of all but 3 teams in the National League have already been revealed. The Reds and Phillies are in. The Rockies and Cardinals are out. In the West, the Giants hold a 3 game lead on the Padres. Our Bravos are 2 games up on the Padres in the wild card standings. While we host the Phillies this weekend, the Padres and Giants will be playing in San Francisco.

In recent days the Padres have gradually become the team the Braves are most directly competing with for the final playoff spot. However, although the Giants have clinched at least a tie for the NL West title, we still have to keep them in mind, because there is still a chance that they may become our main adversary right at the last moment. With 3 games left for all teams involved, there are numerous possible outcomes, which we will now go over. The Braves are definitely in a better position than San Diego, but there is still work to be done. Some fans always expect the best possible outcome but that’s just not my nature. I wouldn’t call my outlook pessimistic, but over time I’ve come to be very cautious about my team’s chances. For that reason, we will begin with the worst possible scenario, and move toward the best possible scenario.

Scenario #1: We get swept and the Padres sweep. The only way that the Braves season will come to an end on Sunday (baring rainouts) is if they go 0-3 this weekend and the Padres sweep the Giants. If that were to happen, the Padres and Giants would both finish 91-71 and would both make the playoffs, while we would end up 90-72 and out of the playoffs.

Scenario #2: We get swept and the Padres win 2 of 3. This would leave the Braves and San Diego even at 91-71 and tied for the wild card. We would then host the Padres in a 1-game playoff at Turner Field on Monday. Obviously this wouldn’t be a death blow but it would be pretty rough. We’d be going into the do-or-die game having been swept, while the Padres would be elated just to still have a chance. Also, the pitching matchup wouldn’t be in our favor. All the pressure would be on us.

Scenario #3: We lose 2 of 3 and the Padres sweep. The only way that the Braves could end up being in direct competition with the Giants would be if San Diego won all 3 games in San Fran and we went 1-2 against Philly. That would leave all 3 teams tied at 91-71. If that were to occur, the Padres would host the Giants in a 1-game playoff on Monday. The winner of that game would be the NL West Division champ. The loser would play the Braves at Turner Field on Tuesday in a 1-game playoff for the wild card. This wouldn’t be as bad as getting swept and being eliminated on Sunday, but it obviously would be less than ideal. I think it would be a slightly better scenario than #2, because we would have won at least 1 game this weekend, and we would have Monday off, and we’d play a team that had lost a do-or-die game the day before. At the present time, facing San Fran in a 1-game playoff isn’t a pleasant thought. But remember that if that happened it would mean that the Giants had lost 4 straight games to the Padres, so we might feel differently about them than we do now.

Scenario #4: We get swept and the Padres lose the series. This might be the weirdest possible outcome, because we would win the wild card and be in the playoffs, but it would be damn near impossible to escape the feeling that we had backed into it. It probably wouldn’t be so bad if San Diego lost their first 2 against the Giants, because then our final game would be meaningless and it wouldn’t be quite like failing 3 days in a row. Plus, at the end of the day, we’d have reached the postseason.

Scenario #5: We lose 2 of 3 and the Padres win 2 of 3. This sounds like a bad outcome at first glance, but in reality it would give us the wild card outright.

Scenario #6: We win the series. This is the simplest route. If we win the series against Philly, we’re in, no matter what San Diego does. Scenario #5 would basically be just as good as this one if we won on Friday and the Padres lost, because that would make the final 2 games meaningless.

The San Diego vs. San Francisco Series

San Diego isn’t quite on life support yet, but they may well be by the start of their first game with the Giants if the Braves win tomorrow night. The Padres have lost 4 of their last 5 and they are just 12-22 in their last 34. However, they are 10-5 against the G-Men this season, though they did lose 3 of 4 to San Fran at home earlier this month. San Diego is 43-35 on the road, while the Giants are 48-30 at home. San Fran went 17-8 in September and they are 43-27 since the break. The Giants have won 8 of their last 10 games.

On Friday, the Padres will send Clayton Richard to the mound against Matt Cain. The Giants figure to have the pitching advantage on Saturday with Barry Zito going up against Tim Stauffer. Sunday’s scheduled pitching matchup is Mat Latos vs. Jonathan Sanchez.

One scenario to keep in mind is the possibility of both the Braves and Padres losing on Friday. If that happens, the Padres will be eliminated from contention for the NL West title but they will still be alive for the wild card. The Giants, meanwhile, would suddenly be in the same situation as the Phillies, with nothing left to gain over the final 2 games. On Friday, the Braves will play at 7:35, while the west coast series will begin at 10:15. On Saturday both teams will play at 4:10. On the season’s final day, the Braves will play at 1:15, and the game in San Francisco will begin at 4:05.

Final Series Preview

The Braves go into this final weekend 21 games over .500 at 90-69 (.566). They are 55-23 (.705) at home. The Braves are now 38-33 since the All-Star break. Despite winning their last 3, the Braves were still just 13-14 in September. The Braves are back to .500 in 1-run games at 22-22, and they are 8-7 in extra inning affairs.

We all know how hot the Phillies have been. They are 95-64 (.597) overall and 41-34 (.547) on the road. The Phils have gone 48-24 since the break and they went 21-6 in September. They’ve gone 25-7 in their last 32, although they have lost 3 of their last 5. The Phils are a ridiculous 29-16 in 1-run games and 11-6 in extra innings. The Phillies will be preparing themselves for the postseason this weekend, so they won’t be sending their best team out on the field. I think it can be assumed, however, that the Phillies would love to spoil the Braves season. Even with both hands tied behind their backs the Phillies will not be easy to beat. Still, the reality of the situation is that the Phillies will be holding back their starting and relief pitchers, and they will be taking care not to risk injuries on the bases and in the field. This has to be taken into account.

The Braves are 7-8 in 15 games against the Phillies this season, having been outscored 53-50. The Braves lost 3 straight to the Phils last week. At home, however, the Braves are 4-2 against Philly this season, outscoring them 25-20 in those games. Remarkably, considering Philly’s record in close games, the Braves are 2-1 in 1-run games against the Phils this season and 2-0 in extra inning games.

Friday

Kyle Kendrick vs. Brandon Beachy

The Braves will not be going up against one of Philly’s “Big Three” in the opener. But the Braves have faced Kyle Kendrick many times during Philly’s 4-year run atop the NL East, and he has always been tough on them. Kendrick has pitched in 32 games this season, making 30 starts, and going 10-10 with 1 complete game and 14 Quality Starts. He has a 4.76 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP overall, and as a starter he is 10-10 with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. The Phillies are 16-14 in his 30 starts. Kendrick has been a better pitcher away from Citizens Bank, going 6-3 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 16 appearances on the road. Kendrick has pitched a complete game and 7 QS in 14 road starts, with the Phillies going 7-7 in those games. Kendrick has made only 3 starts since September 11th and is 1-2 in those games, yet he has pitched well, posting a 3.63 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 17.1 innings, and making 2 QS.

The Braves look a lot different than they did when they faced Kendrick earlier this season, and there is almost no connection with the current Braves lineup and lineups that faced Kendrick in previous seasons. Still, Kendrick has a fairly extensive record of good work against the Braves, and of pitching well in Atlanta. His success against the Braves goes back to the latter part of the 2007 season when the Phillies chased down the Mets and began their reign atop the NL East. On September 5th of that year, the Braves faced Kendrick for the first time, and that ended up being a very memorable game. Kendrick held the Braves to 2 runs over 5 innings and he looked sure to be the winner, as the Phils lead 8-2 after 7 innings. However, the Braves would put together one of their most improbable and inexplicable rallies of all-time, scoring 3 in the 8th and 4 in the 9th to win 9-8. On a personal note, I expected that collapse to break the backs of the Phillies, but of course it did not. On September 27th in Philly, Kendrick held the Braves to 3 runs over 6 innings, and this time he did get the win, as the Phillies took the game 6-4, on their way to overtaking the Mets in the final week of the season.

The next season Kendrick made 4 starts against the Braves, all before the trade of Mark Teixeira, and posted a 3.47 ERA, with the Phillies going 3-1 in those games. Kendrick was banished to the minors for much of last season, pitching in just 9 games for the Phillies all year. However, he still managed to face the Braves in September, coming on in relief during a game in Atlanta on the 18th, and tossing 4 shutout innings to get the win in a 9-4 Philly victory.

The Phillies have lost both of Kendrick’s starts against the Braves this season, but it hasn’t been due to a bad outing by their starter. On April 20th in Atlanta, Kendrick threw 8 shutout innings against the Braves, yielding just 4 hits. Again, however, a sure win for him disappeared, as the Braves mounted another improbable comeback, this time scoring 3 runs in the 9th to tie the game and then winning 4-3 in the 10th. On June 2nd, Kendrick held the Braves to just 1 run over 7 innings at the Ted, but he ended up with a no-decision as the Braves won 2-1 to finish off a sweep of the Phils. In 2 starts vs. Atlanta this season, Kendrick has held the Braves to 1 run on 9 hits and 4 walks over 15 innings, allowing just 2 doubles and no homers, while coaxing 4 ground ball double plays.

In his career, Kendrick has faced the Braves 9 times, 8 times as a starter, and is 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 53.1 innings against them. The Phillies are just 4-4 in his 8 starts against the Braves, but Kendrick has delivered a QS in 6 of those starts. He has made 6 appearances at Turner Field, 5 as a starter, and is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 35.1 innings. The Phillies are just 2-3 in his 5 starts at the Ted, despite the fact that he has tossed a QS in 3 of those games.

For the second time in the last two weeks the Braves will open an enormous series against the Phillies with rookie right hander Brandon Beachy on the mound. In his first career start back on the 20th, Beachy pitched admirably, keeping the Braves in the game against one of the best hitting teams in the game, at one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. He lasted 4.1 innings and allowed 3 runs, though only 1 was earned. While he certainly did not get much help from the Atlanta defense or the Atlanta bullpen, Beachy was fortunate that a number of hard hit balls were hit in the right places. He ended up taking the loss, as the Phils held on for a 3-1 win. His second start came at Washington last weekend and he again did all that could be asked, holding the Nats to 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks with 9 K’s, but the Braves fell 4-2. In his 2 starts, Beachy has allowed 5 runs, 3earned, on 9 hits and 6 walks with 10 K over 9.1 innings. He has allowed just 2 doubles and no homers, but he has yet to pitch past the 5th, and the Braves are 0-2 in his 2 starts.

Saturday

Cole Hamels vs. Tommy Hanson

The Braves will only have to face 1 of the Phillies’ 3 aces in this series, and the Phillies are not planning on Cole Hamels pitching very deep into the game. This is good news, as Hamels has had a super year, and shutdown the Braves completely about 10 days ago. He is 12-11 in 32 starts with 1 CG and 21 QS. Despite a 3.09 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, the Phillies are just 18-14 in Hamels’ starts. He is 5-5 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 14 road starts, and the Phillies are 9-5 in those games. 9 of his QS and his only CG of this season have come on the road.

The Braves will be facing Hamels for the 5th time this season on Saturday. He is 2-1 in 4 starts against the Braves this season, despite a 4.35 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. His last 2 starts against the Braves have been QS, including September 20th when Hamels held the Braves to a run on 6 hits in Philly’s 3-1 win at Citizens Bank. There are a couple of things which can give Braves fans reason for hope. His only start at Turner Field this season did not go well, as he lasted just 0.2 innings, allowing a homer and 3 runs, and did not return after a rain delay. Also, in Hamels’ last start he allowed 5 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks with just 2 K against the Mets at home.

Tommy Hanson’s season has been similar to Hamels’, as his record in no way reflects his performance. In 33 starts, Hanson has posted a 3.41 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, yet he is just 10-11 on the year. He has made 19 QS, and the Braves are 19-14 with him on the mound. For much of this season it looked like Hanson’s sophomore campaign would be somewhat of a disappointment, as he struggled to find consistency. But his work down the stretch has erased all of those thoughts. In 6 September starts, Hanson has allowed just 10 runs (9 earned) on only 22 hits and 7 walks over 39.2 innings for a 2.04 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. 5 of his 6 September starts were QS and the Braves went 4-2 with him on the mound.

Hanson is 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 17 starts at home this season, making 10 QS. The Braves are 10-7 in his home starts. He will be making his 4th start against the Phillies this year. So far he is 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 17.1 innings in 3 starts against the Phils. 2 of his 3 starts against the Phillies have been QS and the Braves are 2-1 in his games. His last start against the Phillies came on September 22nd in Philadelphia and was one of the best of his career, as he held Philly scoreless on 2 hits over 6 innings. Unfortunately, the Braves lost the game 1-0.

Sunday

Vance Worley vs. Tim Hudson

The starting pitching matchup for the finale certainly looks to be in Atlanta’s favor. Vance Worley--a 23 year old righty drafted in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft--will be making just his 2nd career start. In 4 games this season, Worley has allowed just 2 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks with 9 K over 8 innings. His first and only start came on September 6th against the Marlins, and he went 5 innings, allowing 2 runs on 6 hits and a walk with 5 K’s, but wound up taking the loss. He has never faced the Braves before, and this will be his first experience pitching on the road.

The Braves will have their ace on the mound for the final game of the season. After pitching on short rest earlier this week, Tim Hudson will pitch on regular rest this Sunday. Huddy is 16-9 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 33 starts this season. He has 25 QS and the Braves are 19-14 with him on the mound. At Turner Field, Hudson is 10-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 17 starts this season. 15 of his 17 home starts have been QS, and the Braves are 12-5 in those games.

As great a year as Hudson has had, there’s no doubt that his performance has fallen off recently. Since August 23rd, Hudson is just 2-4 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over 50 innings during 8 starts. He has allowed 8 homers over that time, making only 4 QS, and the Braves are just 3-5 in those games. However, Huddy has managed a QS in both of his 2 games against the Phillies this season. Huddy is 1-1 against the Phils this season with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 12 innings of work. One other thing to keep in mind is that Hudson is 6-0 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 55.1 innings in 8 starts in day games this season.

Outlook

All things considered, the Braves are in a pretty favorable position. To begin with, it would be no less than jaw droppingly stunning if the Padres were able to win all 3 of their games in San Fran this weekend. It seems very likely that the Giants will at least win 1 of those games to finish off the division title. That would mean that the Braves would only have to win 1 of their games against the Phillies in order to win the wild card. The Padres will be on the road, while the Braves will be at home, where they have been extremely successful this season. San Diego will be facing a team trying to get to the postseason, while the Braves will be playing a team trying to set up their pitching rotation and get their starters rested for the postseason. 2 of the 3 games in the Braves series will be day games, and the Braves are 31-22 in such contests this season, while the Phillies are 26-23. The Braves will not have to face either of the Roy’s, and they will likely only see Cole Hamels for a few innings. The Phillies will have a very inexperienced pitcher going in game 3, while the Braves will have their two best pitchers going on Saturday and Sunday.

We can probably all predict what the keys to this series will be for the Braves. It all starts with the starting pitching. If the Braves starters falter this weekend anything could happen. We will also have to hope that the bullpen can be rock solid for one more series. And the Braves will have to find a way to come through at the plate when they have scoring opportunities, because at this point they are unlikely to be an explosive offensive team, regardless of what pitcher they are facing.

The Pendulum of Fate

True Atlanta sports fans have had to deal with so many bitter and painful moments over the years. The worst part of this history of disappointment and disillusion has been that so many of these moments have occurred at times when they might easily have been moments of joy and of dreams coming true. I must admit that for weeks I had been troubled by a fear that this final series against the Phillies, Bobby Cox’s final series as Braves manager, would turn out to be another of those cruel moments of heartbreak. I pictured everything on the line, with the two teams playing to either go to the postseason or go home. I had visions of the Phillies beating us and sending Cox out with his team collapsing and choking in his final games. Worst of all I saw thousands of Phillies fans, drowning out the home fans in celebration. I saw fate turning on us in the harshest way possible, turning a dream season into a nightmare.

Of course the Phillies managed to overtake us and even put the division title away long before this final weekend. The moment, however, has not been lost. There is still a chance that this weekend could turn into one of those dark moments, when something wonderful turns into something awful. But on the other hand, this weekend may very well turn out to be a truly special moment for real Atlanta sports fans. Great moments like that have been oh so rare in our history. The possibility for disaster exists. But there is also a chance for the sort of magical ending that many of us have dreamed of and hoped for. We shall hope. Our team shall try to make it happen. In the end, the Baseball Gods will decide. Then we shall know our fate.