The College Football Blog: 2010 Power Rankings (After Week 7)

Power Rankings after Week 7

1. Oregon 6-0 (1st)
2. Alabama 6-1 (3rd)
3. Oklahoma 6-0 (4th)
4. Ohio State 6-1 (2nd)
5. Boise State 6-0 (5th)
6. TCU 7-0 (6th)
7. Auburn 7-0 (8th)
8. Iowa 5-1 (11th)
9. Michigan State 7-0 (13th)
10. South Carolina 4-2 (9th)
11. Arkansas 4-2 (10th)
12. Stanford 5-1 (12th)
13. Wisconsin 6-1 (NR)
14. LSU 7-0 (14th)
15. Nebraska 5-1 (7th)

Out: Florida (15th).

Explanation: It’s getting harder to do these rankings. This week there was movement throughout my power rankings. Two teams with 2 losses are included in my rankings this week ahead of several undefeated and 1-loss teams. But the goal of these rankings was not to be overly swayed by wins and losses. This might seem like an absurd goal to some, but I actually think it makes at least as much sense as ranking teams on a conveyor belt, moving them up when they win and down when they lose, regardless of opponent. That’s basically the way that the traditional polls work (AP, Coaches, Harris) and it’s pretty mindless.

This week was a good example of the way that voters often seem to put little to no serious thought into their rankings. It’s as if they’re filling these things out between courses at dinner, scribbling them out on a napkin smudged with Caesar dressing. Missouri came into last weekend ranked 21st in the AP poll, while Arkansas and was ranked 12th. Mizzu won on the road over Texas A&M, a team that Arkansas had beaten on a neutral field the week before and a team who had won by only 7 points at home over FIU earlier this season. Arkansas lost on the road to Auburn (a team ranked 4th in the AP this week) after leading in the 2nd half, and playing the entire 2nd half without their Heisman candidate quarterback. This new information wouldn’t seem to warrant a major shift in the view of either Missouri or Arkansas. However, Arkansas dropped 11 spots from 12th to 23rd, while Missouri climbed 10 spots from 21st to 11th. It’s understandable that someone would tend to want to place a 6-0 team ahead of a 4-2 team, but it shouldn’t be automatic. If Auburn is the 4th best team in the country (which the AP says it is), than is losing a shootout to the Tigers on the road without their star quarterback really grounds for moving the Hogs 11 spaces back (behind Kansas State!). Of course there are a million examples like this in every poll, every week of the year. That’s why I make an effort in my power rankings not to be swayed too much by win-loss record and by the most recent events.

Oregon was off last week and thus the Ducks remained #1 in my rankings. Ohio State had been #2 but they lost by 13 points at Wisconsin, and I decided to move them down 2 spots to 4th. Most people probably moved the Buckeyes down farther. I will admit that I expected Ohio State to win, but losing a night game against Wisconsin is not the end of the world. I do think that the Buckeyes need to work on kickoff coverage.

I was actually not very impressed by Alabama’s 23-10 win over Mississippi at home, but I moved them up a spot in my rankings from 3rd to 2nd. It’s possible that Bama’s drop-off from last year has been greater than I thought. They could easily have lost to Arkansas and their wins over Florida and Penn State do not look as good as they did at the time. Their loss to South Carolina doesn’t look quite as respectable as it did at the time either. But for now I’m going to wait and see how things progress.

Oklahoma demolished Iowa State and moved up a spot in my rankings from 4th to 3rd. We should learn more about the Sooners this week when they face Missouri. Some of their wins have been shakier than expected, but they have shown some signs of being the dominant team that I thought they would be this year.

I’m sure I would be crushed by the section of sports fans who are obsessed with the idea of teams from the WAC and the Mountain West playing for the National Championship. I kept Boise State 5th and TCU 6th this week. I’m sorry, but I just didn’t learn anything new about those two teams last week. Boise State ran over San Jose State, a team that also lost at home to UC Davis and only beat Southern Utah at home 16-11. TCU won 31-3 over BYU, and ordinarily that would be really impressive, but this season BYU lost to Utah State by 15 and lost at home to Nevada by 14. I actually think that TCU and Boise State are 2 of the best teams in the country, which is why I have them ranked ahead of 2 different 7-0 SEC teams, but I haven’t seen anything to make me think that they would beat any of my top 4 teams on a neutral field.

As stated above, Auburn won 65-43 over Arkansas last week to get to 7-0, and I moved the Tigers up a spot from 8th to 7th in my rankings. Auburn certainly has an offense that is very tough to stop, as they scored 65 points on a team that had allowed a total of 65 points to Georgia, Alabama, and Texas A&M. However, they also gave up 43 points, to a team that only scored 31 against ULM and played most of the game without their quarterback.

Two Big Ten teams made significant moves in my rankings this week. Iowa won by 10 over Michigan on the road and I moved them up 3 spots from 11th to 8th. Michigan State beat Illinois to improve to 7-0, moving up 4 spots in my rankings from 13th to 9th. I moved those teams ahead of South Carolina and Arkansas, who both lost competitive games on the road in the SEC. I only moved South Carolina down 1 spot from 9th to 10, even though their loss to Kentucky was a disappointment (not to me personally, but in terms of how good I thought they were). There were several reasons why I didn’t drop them farther down. First of all, losing on the road in the SEC (to any team other than Vandy) is not like losing at home to James Madison. They also played the entire 2nd half without their best player (RB Marcus Lattimore) which is the main reason that they blew an 18 point lead and lost. Plus, they threw a pass into the end zone with 11 seconds left that could easily have been a game winning touchdown, but it was tipped and caught by a Kentucky player for an interception that kept South Carolina from trying a game tying FG. And it’s just not easy to play high intensity games week after week. South Carolina was coming off of a win over Alabama at home, and they weren’t able to get past Kentucky last week. I also moved Arkansas down a spot from 10th to 11th. I know that Arkansas has now lost twice and does not really have a big win, but their 2 losses have come to Alabama by 4 and to Auburn on the road without their QB. And they led late in both games.

Stanford was idle and stayed at #12. The only new team in my rankings this week is Wisconsin, who returns at #13. The Badgers got a huge win over Ohio State last week, and their lone loss at Michigan State is looking better all the time. LSU was unimpressive (again) in their home win over McNeese State and they remained 14th in my rankings.

Nebraska took the biggest tumble in my power rankings this week, dropping 8 spots from 7th to 15th after their home loss to Texas. Texas was coming off of a bye, and Nebraska was crushed by a slew of dropped passes, but the Longhorns basically exposed NU’s offense. Taylor Martinez began the game as a Heisman candidate (the front runner to some) and began (and ended) the 2nd half on the bench.

Florida was the only team to fall out of my power rankings this week. The Gators had been 15th in my rankings but they lost their 3rd straight game on Saturday, falling at home to Mississippi State. I was all wrong about Florida this season. My biggest concern for them going into the season was on defense, where they lost almost everyone (including their great defensive coordinator). However, it was their offense that I badly misjudged. This is by far the least effective offense the Gators have had under Urban Meyer. Going into this season, the Gators had scored at least 13 points in 56 of their 57 games with Meyer as head coach. They’ve been held to 7 points or less in 2 of their last 3 games.