The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 7 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (6-6-2); Straight Up: (10-4)

Season: Vs. Spread (37-50-3); Straight Up: (48-42)

Week 6 Review: I haven’t been doing quite as badly the last couple of weeks, but I’ve still got a long way to go to reach respectability. I really need a super week ATS to jump start my comeback. Right now I’m just treading water.

Week 7 Preview: This should be another interesting week, although the early part of this Sunday may end up being fairly tame. Week 7 gets very interesting towards the end, beginning with the New England-San Diego game during the late portion of Sunday’s schedule. Then that night we get the Vikings at the Packers. And on Monday the Giants visit the desperate Cowboys. All 3 of those games are going to be huge. As for my picks, you might think that I’d be gaining in confidence, having gone .500 ATS in each of the last 2 weeks. But it’s actually just the opposite. I feel like I’m due for another miserable week.

Sunday’s Early Games

Cleveland (+13) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: The Browns began the year on a not so surprising losing skid, but they were actually competitive in each of their first 3 games, losing by 3 at Tampa Bay, by 2 against the Chiefs, and by 7 in Baltimore. Then the Browns knocked off the Bengals. However, they’ve lost ATS in each of their last 2 games, losing by 10 to the Falcons at home, and by 18 in Pittsburgh. They’ve scored 14 points or less in 4 of 6 games this season. They are just 1-5 on the year and 2-4 ATS.

The Saints finally looked more like a defending Super Bowl champ last week, ending a 4 game losing streak ATS with a 31-6 win at Tampa. The Saints may get Pierre Thomas back this week, but if he is still not ready to go, Christopher Ivory looked pretty good last week, rushing for 158 yards on just 15 carries. Cleveland will likely be without both Joshua Cribbs and Mohamed Massaquoi, and they may go with Colt McCoy again as the starting quarterback. New Orleans is 4-2 overall but just 2-4 ATS. The Browns are 0-3 on the road so far this season.

Jacksonville (+4) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover
Comment: Ugh, I hate the Jags! I knew I shouldn’t have picked them to win that Monday night game. It was a totally impulsive move, and one that I started regretting more and more as the week went on. By the time Monday rolled around I knew that the outcome of the game would determine whether I had a winning record against the spread or finished at .500. At the very least, I thought this would give me a reason to be interested in one of the worst MNF matchups in recent memory. Even that proved to be a fleeting illusion, as the Jaguars didn’t even bother to show up. They fell behind early and killed any hopes of a comeback by fumbling inside the red zone just before halftime. Comeback hopes were already on life support before the fumble, as Trent Edwards was running the offense after an injury to David Garrard.

I think I’ve finally figured out who the Jaguars are. Over the last 3 seasons the Jags have easily been the worst mediocre team in the NFL. That title should make them automatically banned from standalone nationally televised games, when you want either great teams or total train wrecks. The Chiefs have now lost 2 games in a row after a 3-0 start, but they haven’t lost at home yet this season. The Jags are 1-1 on the road this season (the win at Buffalo) but they are just 3-10 in their last 13 road games going back to late in the 2008 season. Jax will also be playing this game on a short week. Among other things, that will give Garrard one less day to recover from his so-called concussion. If he is unable to play, Trent Edwards (who suffered serious concussions in each of the last 2 seasons while playing for Buffalo) will be under center.

Philadelphia (+3) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Eagles beat the spread
Comment: These two teams are similar in a number of ways. Both teams have long tenured head coaches (Jeff Fisher is in his 16th year, Andy Reid is in his 12th). Both teams are known for being stout on the defensive side, but they both experienced drop-offs in that department last year following the departure of long time defensive coordinators (Jim Schwartz left to become the head coach of the Lions, Jim Johnson succumbed to cancer during the early part of last season). Both teams have one athletic QB and one stationary QB. Both teams seem to play at about the same level regardless of which QB plays. This season, both teams are 4-2 overall, 1-2 at home, and 3-0 on the road.

In my opinion, the jury is still out on both of these teams as to whether they are truly contenders or pretenders. The Eagles are 3-3 ATS, while the Titans are 4-2. The Titans have won 3 of their last 4 games, while the Eagles have won 4 of 5. It looks like Philly will be without DeSean Jackson this week, and it appears that Kevin Kolb will get the start at QB over Michael Vick. It is unclear at this point whether Vince Young or Kerry Collins will start for Tennessee, but Collins has taken over for Young in each of the last 2 games.

Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons win but Bengals beat the spread
Comment: While I expected the Falcons to lose in Philly last week, I must say that I was still disappointed with their performance. They were really not very competitive. I still can’t tell if they are just a decent team that has been fortunate to win as many games as they have so far, or if they are really a team that can contend for the title. As a Falcons fan, I’ll be more than happy with either of those scenarios, but obviously I’d prefer the latter.

The Falcons played without rookie LB Sean Witherspoon last week and they will likely be without him again this Sunday. Dunta Robinson may be missing as well. Cincinnati is coming off of a bye, and they hope to have rookie receiver Jordan Shipley back for this game, as well as safety Roy Williams. The Bengals have lost their last 2 games and they are 1-2 on the road this season, while the Falcons are 2-0 at home. Cinci has lost 6 of 7 on the road going back to last year, while the Falcons have gone 15-3 at the Georgia Dome under Mike Smith.

Washington (+3) @ Chicago
Pick: Redskins pull off the upset
Comment: The Bears engaged in self mutilation again last week, losing at home to Seattle, and they’ve now lost 2 of 3 after starting off the season 3-0. The Redskins’ win at Philly a few weeks ago was just their 2nd victory in their last 13 on the road. The Skins are also dealing with a slew of injuries.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Miami
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: The Steelers have gotten Big Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension and return out of the way, and they are in pretty good shape at this point. They are 4-1 (4-1 ATS), 2-0 on the road, and they have outscored opponents by an average score of 22.8 to 12.0. The Dolphins won at Green Bay last week, but they were off of a bye week and playing a battered bunch of Packers. They had to play into overtime, and they could struggle to hang around in what figures to be a very physical contest with Pittsburgh this Sunday. The Dolphins are 3-2 overall (3-2 ATS), but they are 0-2 at home, and they have actually been outscored by their opponents (17.8 to 22.4). In case you are wondering, the Fins’ record ATS as a home underdog in recent years is nothing special.

St. Louis (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Bucs cover
Comment: Both of these teams have won more games than the Cowboys, Chargers, Vikings, and Bengals. The Rams stunned the Chargers last week to get to .500 at 3-3 (4-2 ATS). The Bucs were soundly beaten at home last week for the 2nd time in their last 3 games, and they are just 1-2 at home this season, but they are still 3-2 overall (3-2 ATS). The Rams are 0-2 on the road, and they have lost 18 of their last 20 away from home going back to the latter part of the 2007 season (and one of those two road wins was against Detroit). The Rams have lost 13 of their last 14 on the road and 5 straight.

Buffalo (+13) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: This is a battle of the teams ranked first and last in my power rankings. The Bills are 0-5 (1-4 ATS), 0-2 on the road, and have been outscored 17.4 to 32.2 on average. Baltimore is 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS) and 2-0 at home. They have outscored their opponents by an average score of 18.7 to 15.8. The Ravens have played a very tough schedule and they played an overtime game against the Patriots last week, so they could struggle to find the appropriate level of energy for this game. The Bills are coming off of a bye week. Buffalo had won 4 straight games following a bye week until last season when they came back from a week off and lost 41-17 to the Titans.

San Francisco (-2) @ Carolina
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: These two teams have a combined record of 1-10. The Niners got their first win of the season last week to get to 1-5 (2-4 ATS), but they are 0-3 on the road this year. The Panthers were off last week and thus remained 0-5 (1-4 ATS). They are 0-3 at home. The Panthers have decided to go back to Matt Moore at quarterback. Unfortunately he probably won’t have Steve Smith at his disposal, as their star wideout is still dealing with a leg injury. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 games the week after a bye (in the regular season).

Sunday’s Late Games

Arizona (+5.5) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover
Comment: Much to my annoyance, the Seahawks keep coming up with surprise victories to counter the bad losses that I expected. They started the season with a surprising 31-6 blowout win over the Niners at home. They lost by 17 to Denver the next week, but then they beat the Chargers in week 3. After that they got beat 20-3 by the Rams, but following a bye week they went on the road and beat the Bears 23-20. It’s still hard to know what to make of them. The Cardinals will be coming off of a bye, and in their last game they beat the defending champs by 10 points. The Cards are 3-2 overall and 1-2 on the road. Despite a winning record, Arizona has been outscored 17.6 to 27.6 on average. Seattle is 3-2 and 2-0 at home. The Cards have swept the Seahawks in each of the last 2 years. They have won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams, including the last 2 in Seattle.

Oakland (+6.5) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos cover
Comment: The Broncos are 2-4 (2-4 ATS) and just 1-2 at home. I hate the Broncos, but I have to admit they have still been a much more competitive team than I expected. They have played a tough schedule. The Broncos haven’t been that tough in Denver recently, losing 4 of their last 5 at home. In fact, the Raiders have actually won 2 in a row at Mile High (I know it’s called Invesco Field but that name sucks). In 8 games vs. the Broncos since 2006, the Raiders have gone 6-2 ATS. They have won 3 of the last 5 games in the series, including the last 2 in Denver, and they could easily be going into this one riding a 3 game win streak in Denver, as they very nearly won there in 2007 as well.

You may recall, that was the game that Mike Shanahan first used the delayed icing the kicker tactic that quickly spread around the league. Sebastian Janikowski hit a FG in overtime that appeared to be the game winning kick. Both teams began to move off the sidelines and the announcers said that the Raiders had won the game. But then the refs got everyone’s attention and said that a timeout had been called. In a turn of events typical of his career, the former 1st round draft pick kicker then missed his 2nd attempt. Denver then went down and kicked a game winning field goal. One thing I remember clearly about that moment is feeling so bad for the Raiders coach who thought he had won his first game in the NFL. It’s funny now. Do you remember who that coach was? It was Lane Kiffin; a guy that I wouldn’t feel sorry for today if I saw him running from a lion while engulfed in flames.

New England (+3) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Patriots beat the spread
Comment: This was one of the best rivalries of the 2000’s and definitely one of my favorites. It won’t be the same now that LT and Shawne Merriman are gone from the Chargers and Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, and Randy Moss are gone from the Patriots, but it will still be good. The Chargers are desperate (or at least they should be), as they come into this game 2-4 (2-4 ATS) despite having outscored opponents by an average of 26.2 to 21.0. The Patriots are 4-1 (2-2-1 ATS) and have outscored their opponents 30.8 to 23.2 on average. However, the Chargers are 2-0 at home, while the Pats are 1-1 on the road. The Chargers were already without Merriman and Vincent Jackson, and now Malcolm Floyd and kicker Nate Kaeding are battling injuries.

Sunday Night’s Game

Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay
Pick: Vikings pull off the upset
Comment: Unless some new developments arise in the Brett Favre picture-of-penis-in-text scandal, it appears that he will return to Lambeau Field again this Sunday night. This is a huge game for both teams. The Packers are the most banged up team in the NFL by a mile, and they have lost 3 of their last 4 (0-4 ATS during that stretch), including last week’s game at home against the Dolphins. GB is 3-3 overall (2-4 ATS) and 2-1 at home. Minnesota has now won 2 of their last 3 to get to 2-3 on the season (2-3 ATS) but the Vikings are 0-2 on the road. The Vikes snapped a 3 game losing streak at Green Bay last season, as they swept the season series with the Packers for the first time since 2005.

Monday Night’s Game

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys cover
Comment: The Cowboys lost last week’s desperation battle against the Vikings to fall to 1-4 on the season (1-4 ATS). The Boys are 0-2 at home. The Giants are now 4-2 overall (3-3 ATS) and 1-1 on the road. Last year the G-Men swept the season series with the Cowboys for the first time since 2004. Including the 2007 Divisional Playoff game, the Giants have gone 3-2 in their last 5 games in Dallas.