The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 6 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (7-7); Straight Up: (6-8)

Season: Vs. Spread (31-44-1); Straight Up: (38-38)

Week 5 Review: Well, I’m not going to complain about going .500 ATS at this point. It’s my record picking winners that I’m most concerned about presently. I’ve now been under .500 straight up 2 weeks in a row, and I’m now at .500 picking winners after 5 weeks of play. That’s tough to defend.

Week 6 Preview: Okay, here’s the goal: .500 ATS and a winning record straight up. Ready…Break!

Sunday’s Early Games

Atlanta (+3) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: Sorry. I know I’m supposed to believe, but we never beat the Eagles, especially in Philly. We’ve lost 3 straight to the Eagles and 7 of 8 since 2000. We’ve lost 5 straight in Philly and haven’t won since 1988. The big question is: is he playing? Honestly, I’m a little surprised that the media hasn’t been talking about this more. I know that he played in Atlanta last year and I know that he’s likely to miss the game with the rib injury, but I’m still surprised that it hasn’t been discussed more. If he does play and he is healthy, he’ll probably hurt us. If he does play and he’s still hurt, we’ll hurt him and that might give us a chance to win. I’d really rather he not play just to avoid the whole Michael Vick fan vs. Falcons fan thing. We don’t need it right now. People are starting to trust this team and accept it as their own. It’s starting to be “cool” to be a Falcons fan, and that’s always going to be a major issue in Atlanta, there’s no use wishing it wasn't so.

Cleveland (+13.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: This looks like the lock of the week to me. I know that Big Ben will likely be a bit rusty, but how much will that matter? If he tries to “prove himself” or something stupid like that it could be an issue, but I don’t think it will happen that way. On the other side, it looks like Colt McCoy will be making his first NFL start on the road against the Steelers. He may not even have Peyton Hillis to take some of the heat off of him. The Browns stunned the Steelers on national television late last season to snap a 12 game losing skid against their hated rivals, but this is a different Steelers team. The Browns have lost 6 straight in Pittsburgh.

Seattle (+7) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover
Comment: It looks like Jay Cutler will play this weekend. Is that good or bad? Well, I guess it’s good. I mean say what you will about Cutler being a spoiled brat and a punk and a head case and a Jeff George for this generation, but Todd Collins sucks. The Seahawks are coming off of a bye, but they are 0-2 on the road this season. Seattle is just 2-12 in their last 14 road games (with both of those wins coming against the Rams).

Detroit (+10) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover
Comment: I’m torn on this game, at least as far as the spread. The Giants are not dead, okay, I was wrong about that. But they are still not trust worthy. New York is 2-1 at home this season but just 6-6 in their 12 home games. I’m not saying the Lions are going to win. I mean they’ve lost 23 straight on the road. But Detroit did just get off the schnide in a major way with a 44-6 win over the Lambs. The Lions are 4-1 ATS this season.

Baltimore (+3) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Ravens beat the spread
Comment: This is a tough one. The Ravens look really good, and the Patriots just traded Randy Moss. New England won at home over the Ravens in the regular season last year but then got embarrassed in the playoffs. The Patriots are coming off of a bye and I hate to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

San Diego (-9) @ St. Louis
Pick: Chargers win but Rams beat the spread
Comment: Maybe things won’t turn out alright in the end for the Chargers this season. You know what the difference seems to be? They aren’t getting any breaks. They have outgained all of their opponents this season, by an average of 461.8-244.2, but they are just 2-3. They are 0-3 on the road. The Rams plummeted back to earth last week with a 44-6 loss to Detroit. Still, they have the same record as the Chargers (despite being outgained by their opponents 318-342 on average). The Rams are 2-1 at home and 3-2 ATS. But again I have to mention that the last time the Rams won back to back games they lost their next 17 in a row. Hopefully they didn’t start another streak with that performance last week.

Miami (Pick) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: It looks like Aaron Rodgers may now start, but the Packers are still ridiculously banged up. The Dolphins will be fresh, coming off of a bye. But I still like the Packers at home, even if Rodgers doesn’t play.

New Orleans (-4.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Saints win but Bucs beat the spread
Comment: I can’t believe the Bucs come into this game with fewer losses than the Saints. New Orleans has lost 4 straight vs. the spread. Tampa Bay is 3-1 with their only loss coming to Pittsburgh. The Bucs are also 4-2 in their last 6 vs. the Saints. This game is actually blacked out locally. I still don’t know if sports work in Tampa Bay.

Kansas City (+4.5) @ Houston
Pick: Texans win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: A big game for two teams trying to prove themselves. Both teams are coming off of losses. Houston has already lost twice at home this season, and the Chiefs have already won on the road.

Sunday’s Late Games

New York Jets (-3) @ Denver
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: The Jets look super but playing in the altitude is always tricky. This will also be a short week for the Jets. Remember, in 2008, the Jets were 8-3 and 8 point favorites over the Broncos at home, but they lost 34-17, and went on to lose 4 of their last 5. However, the Jets have won 4 straight ATS and they should be able to slow down Denver’s passing offense.

Oakland (+6.5) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners win but Raiders beat the spread
Comment: Is this really a road game for the Raiders? At least it will be on TV. The Niners are 0-5 for the first time since 1979. San Fran has to win at some point, right? Each team has lost a few close ones. The Raiders lost by a point at Arizona and lost by 7 at home to the Texans. The Niners lost by 3 at home to the Saints, by 2 in Atlanta, and by 3 last week to the Eagles at home. While the Raiders will be coming off of a huge win over the Chargers, the Niners are desperate and they are the healthier team.

Dallas (+1) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: A battle of 2 teams that were expected to contend for the NFC Title but find themselves in a must win game in week 6. Both the Cowboys and Vikings are 1-3. The loser of this game is not exactly fucked, but they’re definitely screwed.

Sunday Night’s Game

Indianapolis (-3) @ Washington
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: The Colts have already lost twice on the road this season, but they are getting healthier. Washington will again be without Clinton Portis.

Monday Night’s Game

Tennessee (-3) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags pull off the upset
Comment: This is a very tricky game. Jacksonville crushed the Titans at home last season, and the Jags are 2-1 at home this season with a win over the Colts. However, the Titans are 2-0 on the road. Both teams have been outgained by their opponents, yet both teams are 3-2. I’m just playing a hunch here. And I wanted to pick an underdog to win straight up.