The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 9 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 7-3; Vs. Spread: 6-4)

Overall (Straight up: 40-10; Vs. Spread: 27-23; Moneyline Upsets: 1-0)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 58-22; Vs. Spread: 37-38-5)

Overall (Straight up: 306-89; Vs. Spread: 197-192-6; Moneyline Upsets: 9-19)

Week 8 Review: I’ll take it! Especially in a crazy week.

Week 9 Preview: There’s no singularly huge game this week but there is a slew of big games. I’m looking to avoid a setback after a few solid weeks in a row. I’m not off to a great start, as I couldn’t get these picks out in time to include the Boise State-Louisiana Tech game. I’m down 0-1, and I have to ask, when they planned this game, thinking that it would be a great night for attention because there was no baseball game, didn’t they realize that it was opening night in the NBA? It seems like this game could have just as easily been played at a somewhat more normal time and received as much, if not more, attention. Not to mention the fact that a 45-20 win over Louisiana Tech at home isn’t going to impress anybody all that much. The one thing I’m concerned about this week is the large number of road teams I am picking, particularly heavy favorites on the road.

Thursday

Game 1: Florida State (-3.5) @ NC State
Pick: Florida State covers
Comment: Maybe it’s just me but it seems like there haven’t been as many interesting/meaningful midweek games this year. The biggest reason for this in my opinion has been the utter inconsequence of the Big East this season.

Anyway, while this may not be the most interesting matchup or one that carries a lot of national importance, it is a meaningful game in the ACC and it should be a good game. North Carolina State played a big part in the demise of the Florida State dynasty during the 2000’s. Chuck Amato, one of Bobby Bowden’s long time minions, left FSU to become head coach of NC State in 2000. Amato would eventually become a bit of a joke by the time his tenure in Raleigh ended after the 2006 season, but he inflicted plenty of pain on his former team during his years at NC State. From 2001-2006, Amato’s Wolfpack won 4 out of 6 games against the Seminoles.

Tom O’Brien took over in 2007 and FSU has since won 3 straight. Many people expected (reasonably) big things from O’Brien, but going into this season (his 4th in Raleigh) it had not yet happened. Not many people were expecting it to happen this year, but the Wolfpack got off to a surprising 5-1 start. The party train was derailed in NC State’s last game, an overtime loss at East Carolina. They were idle last week and they have to be looking at this game as a chance to negate the loss to the Pirates and keep hope of a truly great season alive. This is a big game in the ACC Atlantic Division, which Florida State sits atop of at 4-0. This is a big game for the Seminoles too. Jimbo Fisher’s first season has gone quite well so far, and a 10-win season—something that was once an automatic in Tallahassee—is within reach. Both teams will go into this game on 12 days of rest.

Saturday

Game 2: Oklahoma State (-5.5) @ Kansas State
Pick: Kansas State beats the spread
Comment: Some of this game’s appeal was lost when Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon—leading the universe in receiving yards per game and receiving TD’s—was arrested Tuesday morning for a DUI. Incidentally, Blackmon was arrested in a Dallas suburb, doing 92 in a 60, and is not of legal age. Looks like another talented receiver with some baggage. Great. We really needed another one. Can we get another ex-head coach in the broadcasting booth as well while we’re at it? How about another remake of a movie made within the last 2 decades?

Anyway, Oklahoma State was exposed last week by Nebraska, losing a shootout at home for their first defeat of the season. However, the Big XII South title is still very much in play for the Cowboys. The home team has won the last 4 in this series. Oklahoma State has won 2 of the last 3, but prior to that they had lost 9 straight to the Wildcats. Bill Snyder is 9-2 vs. Oklahoma State and 5-0 against them in Manhattan.

Game 3: Missouri (+7.5) @ Nebraska
Pick: Missouri beats the spread
Comment: Obviously this game has major national implications, as Mizzu comes into the game undefeated. This game would have been enormous if Nebraska had not slipped up against Texas at home a couple of weeks ago. It’s still a huge game as far as the Big XII North is concerned. Both teams are coming off of huge wins over Big XII South powers (Mizzu over Oklahoma at home, Nebraska over Okie State on the road). That’s one of the interesting things about this season. Right now at least, it looks as though the Big XII North may be stronger than the Big XII South for the first time in years.

Last year’s game was a standalone Thursday night contest on ESPN. Both teams came into the game 4-0 but still looking to prove their legitimacy. Nebraska was a 3-point road favorite but the rain-soaked Tiger fans were ecstatic through 3 quarters, as Missouri led 12-0. Nebraska had 0 points and 109 yards through 3 quarters. But then Nebraska scored 3 TD’s in 11 plays over just 3 minutes and 22 seconds. The Cornhuskers gained 154 yards in the 4th quarter alone, scoring 27 unanswered points to win 27-12. The visiting team has won the last 2 in this series after losing the previous 6. Missouri won at Nebraska in 2008, but prior to that they had lost 15 straight in Lincoln. Both teams have continued to win this season despite injuries.

Game 4: Florida (+2.5) vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
Pick: Georgia covers
Comment: It’s hard to exaggerate the pessimism that Georgia fans now feel towards this matchup, which the Bulldogs once dominated. At the close of the 1980’s, Georgia led the series with the Gators 43-22-2. Vince Dooley had gone 17-7-1 against the Gators during his 25 years in Athens, and Ray Goff had beaten Florida in his first season as head coach of the Dawgs in 1989. In 1990 Steve Spurrier took over as the head ball coach at his alma mater. Ray Goff never beat the Gators again. Steve Spurrier went 11-1 against Goff, Jim Donnan, and Mark Richt. The Gators did not hold onto their status as a national power during Ron Zook’s 3 years in Gainesville, but even the Zooker went 2-1 against Georgia. Urban Meyer took over in 2005 and has gone 4-1 against the Dawgs, while taking the Gators to 2 national championships. Richt is 2-7 against Florida in his 9 years as Georgia’s head coach. Under many different coaches, in Jacksonville or elsewhere, regardless of which team was favored, the Florida Gators have dominated this great rivalry over the last 2 decades. Florida has won 17 of 20 and 10 of the last 12.

This year’s game will be a rarity, as both teams are having down seasons. I am not certain of this, but I believe that this will be the first time that neither team comes into the game ranked since 1989 (the first year after Dooley, the last year before Spurrier). Obviously this is a huge game for both teams. It’s big for Florida, who suffered a stunning loss at Mississippi State their last time out for their 3rd straight defeat and their 2nd straight loss at home. The Gators have never lost more than 4 games in any season under Urban Meyer, and if they win this week they will have a decent shot at keeping that streak intact. If they lose this week they will have to beat South Carolina at home, win at Florida State, and win a bowl game in order to avoid losing 5 games for the first time since 2003. While losing 4 straight would be rough for Gator Nation, this is a much bigger game for Georgia. At 4-4, the Bulldogs are looking much better than they did at 1-4, but they are still perilously close to having an absolutely awful season. If they lose on Saturday, the Dawgs will be 5-5 (assumed win over Idaho State) with a road game at Auburn and a home game against Georgia Tech left on the schedule. That would make a 5-7 season a possibility and a 6-6 season a probability.

While the Gators have lost 3 in a row, the Dawgs come into the game having won 3 straight. However, in recent years the bye week has seemingly had a major impact on this game. It’s been tough for the Dawgs to win without a week off before the game, and it’s been very tough to beat Urban Meyer’s Gators when they’ve had more than a week to prepare. Meyer’s teams (Bowling Green, Utah, and Florida) are 19-2 when he’s had more than a week to prepare, and the Gators are 12-1 under Meyer with more than a week to prepare (only loss to Michigan in the 2007 Capital One Bowl). The Dawgs have looked overmatched against Florida in each of the last 2 meetings, losing by a combined score of 90-27. However, much of the damage has been self inflicted, as the Dawgs have only been out-gained by an average of 63 yards in those last 2 meetings. One thing that could come into play in this game is the health of Florida kicker Caleb Sturgis, who has not been healthy this season.

Game 5: Michigan State (+6.5) @ Iowa
Pick: Michigan State beats the spread
Comment: This game has obvious national implications, as Michigan State is one of 7 remaining unbeaten teams in the country. In addition, everything is still up for grabs in the Big Ten between MSU, Iowa, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, with Michigan State undefeated in the conference and the other 3 teams with only 1 conference loss apiece. It will be interesting to see if Iowa can recover from a heartbreaking 1-point loss to Wisconsin at home last week. This will be their 4th straight big game (vs. Penn State, at Michigan, vs. Wisconsin). If Michigan State can get past Iowa this week, a perfect regular season will be very much within reach, as they have a manageable schedule following this game (although beating Penn State in Happy Valley is not something the Spartans have done very often). This will certainly be Michigan State’s biggest test so far this season.

The Spartans have lost 6 straight in Iowa City, with their last win coming in 1989. The home team had won 9 straight in this series prior to Iowa’s win in East Lansing last season. Iowa held Michigan State to season lows in yards and points in last year’s contest, but the Spartans still came inches away from a huge victory. Iowa was undefeated and ranked 7th in the country going into the game, but the Hawkeyes needed an amazing play on 4th and goal from the 7 to get past MSU, 15-13, on the final play of the game. Over the last 3 years this game has been very close. Michigan State lost 34-27 in double overtime at Iowa in 2007, won 16-13 at home in 2008, and lost 15-13 at home last year. Interestingly enough, this will be the first time in the last 4 years that the Spartans will be underdogs in this game. MSU is down a starting corner back, as senior Chris Rucker is still suspended following a DUI arrest.

Game 6: Auburn (-7) @ Mississippi
Pick: Auburn covers
Comment: Obviously this is a big game because of Auburn. The visitor has lost 3 in a row in this series. Auburn is 23-4 in their last 27 games against Mississippi, and the Tigers have won 14 of 17 in the series since they began playing every season in 1992. Auburn has won 8 of the last 10 and they have out-gained the Traitors in each of the last 10.

Game 7: Stanford (-7) @ Washington
Pick: Stanford covers
Comment: This isn’t the biggest game but it should be a solid matchup. Stanford had lost 15 of 16 to Washington prior to the 2004 season, but they have since won 4 of 5, including 2 straight in Seattle.

Game 8: Utah (-7) @ Air Force
Pick: Utah covers
Comment: One of the silly things about all of the hemming and hawing over whether the non-BCS conference teams are getting a fair shot, is the fact that nothing—and I mean absolutely zero—is being said about Utah. The Utes are undefeated and they haven’t even been challenged since beating Pitt in OT in the season opener. Air Force will again be missing some of their most important players, and the Falcons were no match for TCU last week. However, this game will be in Colorado Springs, where the Falcons are 9-1 in their last 10 games. Utah has won 6 of 7 in this series, but their last 4 wins have come by an average of less than 4 points, and each of those 4 wins has come by 7 points or less. Regardless of the winner, this game is usually a tight battle. 16 of the last 19 in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.

Game 9: Oregon (-6.5) @ USC
Pick: Oregon covers
Comment: From October of 2001 through October of 2009, USC went 47-1 at home (the only defeat coming by 1-point to Stanford in 2007, the most impossible upset that I have every witnessed). Since November 14th of 2009 the Trojans are just 3-3 at home. Oregon looks close to unstoppable at the moment, but they have a lot of work left to do this season, beginning with this Saturday at the Coliseum. Oregon has not won in LA since 2000 (the year before Pete Carroll arrived), but they have only played there twice since then. Admittedly, Oregon’s 2 games at USC since that last victory have not gone well (lost 35-10 in 2006, 44-10 in 2008). Last year in Eugene, Oregon put up 613 yards of offense on the Trojans (391 rushing) in a 47-20 shellacking. It was USC’s first loss by more than 7 points since 2001 (a 27-16 loss to Notre Dame in Carroll’s first year). Oregon’s previous high score against USC had been 34 points in a game in 1987. The Ducks will be playing on 9 days rest. USC will have had a full 14 days off going into this one.

Game 10: Michigan (-3) @ Penn State
Pick: Penn State pulls off the upset
Comment: This isn’t as big a game as it has often been since Penn State joined the Big Ten, but it is always big because of the historical stature of both teams. The Nittany Lions had lost 9 straight to Michigan by an average of 12 points per game prior to winning the last 2 games by an average of 27 points. Last season Michigan managed just 10 points and 250 yards in a 35-10 defeat at home. Michigan has lost their last 2 games but they will go into this one on 14 days of rest. This is a huge game for both teams who are trying to make something out of this season.

Other Games

Friday

West Virginia (-6.5) @ Connecticut (West Virginia covers)

Saturday

Northwestern (-3) @ Indiana (Northwestern covers)

Clemson (-6.5) @ Boston College (Clemson covers)

Louisville (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh (Louisville beats the spread)

Miami (-14.5) @ Virginia (Miami covers)

Purdue (+17) @ Illinois (Purdue beats the spread)

Northern Illinois (-8) @ Western Michigan (NIU covers)

Syracuse (+10.5) @ Cincinnati (Syracuse beats the spread)

UAB (+10) @ Southern Mississippi (UAB beats the spread)

Tennessee (+17.5) @ South Carolina (South Carolina covers)

Akron (+29.5) @ Temple (Temple covers)

Louisiana-Lafayette (+14.5) @ Ohio (Ohio covers)

Kansas (+19) @ Iowa State (Iowa State covers)

San Diego State (-10) @ Wyoming (Wyoming beats the spread)

Tulsa (+8.5) @ Notre Dame (Tulsa beats the spread)

North Texas (+5.5) @ Western Kentucky (NT beats the spread)

UTEP (+2.5) @ Marshall (Marshall covers)

Texas Tech (+7) @ Texas A&M (Texas Tech beats the spread)

Ball State (+10.5) @ Kent State (BSU beats the spread)

Troy (-16.5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (ULM beats the spread)

Miami (OH) (-2.5) @ Buffalo (Miami (OH) beats the spread)

East Carolina (+7.5) @ Central Florida (East Carolina beats the spread)

Bowling Green (+11.5) @ Central Michigan (CM covers)

Arizona (-9) @ UCLA (Arizona covers)

California (+2.5) @ Oregon State (Oregon State covers)

Wake Forest (+5.5) @ Maryland (Maryland covers)

SMU (-8) @ Tulane (Tulane beats the spread)

Duke (+13.5) @ Navy (Navy covers)

Toledo (-10) @ Eastern Michigan (Toledo covers)

Florida International (-4) @ Florida Atlantic (FAU beats the spread)

San Jose State (-3) @ New Mexico State (NMS pulls off the upset)

New Mexico (+16) @ Colorado State (CSU covers)

Vanderbilt (+20) @ Arkansas (Arkansas covers)

Washington State (+21) @ Arizona State (Washington State beats the spread)

Baylor (+7) @ Texas (Texas covers)

Houston (-14) @ Memphis (Houston covers)

Kentucky (+6.5) @ Mississippi State (Mississippi State covers)

Ohio State (-25) @ Minnesota (Ohio State covers)

Colorado (+23.5) @ Oklahoma (Oklahoma covers)

Utah State (+26) @ Nevada (Nevada covers)

TCU (-34.5) @ UNLV (TCU covers)

Idaho (+14.5) @ Hawaii (Hawaii covers)