The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 8 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (4-10); Straight Up: (8-6)

Season: Vs. Spread (41-60-3); Straight Up: (56-48)

Week 7 Review: Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Week 8 Preview: I think I’m due for a huge week.

Sunday’s Early Games

Buffalo (+7.5) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover
Comment: Poor Buffalo. The Bills are now the only remaining winless team in the NFL. They are 0-6 overall (2-4 against the spread), 0-3 on the road, and they have been outscored by 12.8 points a game. Last week they took the Ravens into OT on the road, only to lose again. They are well on their way to a 6th straight losing season.

At the other end of things, if the Chiefs win on Sunday they will have already won more games this season than in any year since 2006. The Chiefs are 4-2 overall and 5-1 ATS. They are 3-0 at home (3-0 ATS). This will actually be the 3rd straight season that the Bills play the Chiefs at Arrowhead, and the Bills will be going for a 3rd straight win. Last year Matt Cassel had all kinds of problems against the Bills, firing 4 picks in the loss. However, the Bills have allowed at least 34 points in their last 5 games, while the Chiefs have scored at least 31 points in 3 of their last 4 games.

Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys cover
Comment: We’ve gotten used to the Cowboys underachieving (or at least not living up to the hype), but things haven’t been this bad in Big D since the Dave Campo era (Remember this: Dave Campo was once handed the head coaching position of the Dallas Cowboys. That’s how they started this millennium. In fact, he held the position for 3 full seasons. For all the good that Jerry Jones has done as owner of this proud franchise, remember that he allowed Dave Campo to coach the team for 3 seasons, with the Boys going 5-11 each year). The Boys are 1-5 (1-5 ATS), 0-3 at home, and now they have lost Tony Romo.

The amount of talent in Dallas can be overstated at times, but they are clearly among the most talented teams in the NFC, yet they are tied for last in the entire conference. This bad start is all about a lack of leadership and an abundance of ineptitude. All 5 of their losses have come by 7 points or less. Now they have Jon Kitna under center. They will have to go on a highly improbable run in order to avoid their first losing season since 2004.

The Jags are hanging around as usual. They are 3-4, despite a -11.3 average scoring differential. All 4 of Jax’s losses have come by at least 22 points. They’ve been perilously thin at QB recently, but both David Garrard and Trent Edwards should be healthy enough for this game.

Carolina (+3) @ St. Louis
Pick: Rams cover
Comment: The Panthers got off the schnide last week, defeating the Niners for their first victory of the year. While it seems unlikely, we shouldn’t be too shocked if the Panthers turn things around. They have won at least 7 games every year since the disastrous 2001 season when they went 1-15. Again, however, it seems unlikely that the Panthers will be able to keep that streak going, as they have been outscored by an average of 9.2 points a game. They are 2-4 ATS. The Panthers got Steve Smith back recently and they should have Thomas Davis back this week.

The St. Louis Rams are 3-4 (5-2 ATS) and 3-1 at home. If they win on Sunday they will surpass the total number of wins collected in any of their last 3 seasons. 3 of the Rams’ 4 losses have come by a total of 7 points.

Miami (+1) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Dolphins pull off the upset
Comment: While these two teams were not the favorites in the AFC, both came into the year with hopes of competing for the playoffs. They are both in trouble in that regard heading into week 8. The Bengals are 2-4 and have a pair of 5-1 teams ahead of them in the AFC North. The Dolphins are 3-3 and they also have a pair of 5-1 teams ahead of them in their division. The Fins have lost 3 of 4, and all of their wins this season have come by 5 points or less. They are 4-2 ATS, and inexplicably they are 0-3 at home and 3-0 on the road. One number that is hard to ignore is that the Dolphins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. I don’t know what that means but you don’t often see a split like that.

The Bengals have lost 3 straight, all by 7 points or less. They are just 2-4 ATS. The Marvin Lewis era has been dynastic compared to the Bungles of the 90’s and early 2000’s. Still, while the Bengals have grasped consistent mediocrity and occasionally have been better than that, they have not put together back to back winning seasons since 1981-1982.

Washington (+2.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Lions cover
Comment: It’s still hard to say what kind of a year the Skins are going to end up having. They are 4-3, but they have a negative scoring differential, and all 4 of their wins have come by 6 points or less. The Skins have already equaled their number of wins from last season, and they are 2-1 on the road this year, but they will be without Clinton Portis again this Sunday.

Detroit has to be off to the most positive 1-5 start in NFL history. They are 5-1 ATS, and the Lions actually have a positive scoring differential this season. The Lions will be coming off a bye this week and they should have Matthew Stafford back. With a win, Detroit would equal their total number of wins over the previous 2 seasons. They are still just 3-36 in their last 39 games. However, one of those wins came against the Skins at home last season, as Detroit won 19-14 in week 3 to snap a 19 game losing streak.

Denver (+1) vs. San Francisco (London)
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: Troy Smith is the starting quarterback in London this Sunday. No, the European League hasn’t been resurrected. Smith will be starting for the 49ers, who play the Broncos this week in this year’s version of the annual NFL game in England. At least the NFL tried to give the Brits a decent matchup this season. They failed, but at least they tried.

That’s more than you can say for the Broncos. I’m not sure how Josh McDaniels still has his job. Last Sunday’s loss to Oakland was one of the worst performances in franchise history. It was Denver’s 3 straight loss but it should have counted for at least 2 losses. They are now 2-5. Denver’s last 10-loss season came in 1999 (the first year without John Elway) and they have had only 1 losing season since (2007), but they appear headed for at least 10 defeats this season. I hope they don’t win another game.

Mike Singletary’s first (and perhaps only) head coaching tenure has been a roller coaster ride. I’m still not sure how it’s going to end. It started out shakily; then it went bad; then it got better; then it got a bit weird; then the entire process repeated itself; then it looked like things were actually going to work out; now it looks like a death row inmate appealing to the supreme court to reverse a lower court’s ruling to uphold a guilty verdict delivered by a jury.

The Niners were favored by most to win the NFC West, but they are now 1-6. From 1981 through 2002, the Niners had 19 winning seasons (at least 10 wins in all 19 of those seasons) in 22 years. Since 2003, the Niners have had 6 losing seasons, 0 winning seasons, and 1 season at .500. Things were really looking up heading into this year, but it’s all gone to hell.

Green Bay (+6) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets win but Packers beat the spread
Comment: The Packers don’t seem to get many breaks. They have had horrible injury luck again this season, and their schedule never seems to let up. At least this week they should get Al Harris and Atari Bigby back, but of course there are many other guys who they will still be without. While the Packers are tied for 1st, it still feels like the NFC North is theirs to lose, as the Bears have a dumpster fire for an offense, and the Vikings are in dire straits. But the Pack are just 1-4 in their last 5 ATS.

The Jets are also tied for 1st and they will be coming off of a bye. They have won 5 straight (5-0 ATS in that stretch) since losing by a point in week 1. The Jets have outscored their opponents by an average of 9.7 points per game this season.

Sunday’s Late Games

Tennessee (+3.5) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Titans beat the spread
Comment: The Chargers are favored in this one, as they have been in each and every one of their games this season, but unfortunately for them they are just 2-5. They are 2-5, despite having outscored their opponents by an average of 4.0 points per game. They are still without Vincent Jackson, Nate Kaeding, Malcolm Floyd, and Shawne Merriman. San Diego has lost 3 straight, including last week’s loss at home to New England.

Meanwhile, the Titans have won 3 straight and are now 5-2 on the year and 3-0 on the road. Tennessee has outscored opponents by 11.7 points a game this year. They have won 6 of their last 7 on the road going back to last year.

There are a few things going against the Titans in this matchup. For one, while the Chargers are doing their best to throw away the season, they are still a capable team that rarely loses at home. They have also owned the Titans in recent years. Including the playoffs, the Chargers are 5-0 against Tennessee since 2004 (5-0 ATS), winning by an average score of 32-13, and holding Tennessee to 17 points or less in each game. Perhaps most importantly, Vince Young and Justin Gage are questionable this week due to injuries.

Tampa Bay (+3) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover
Comment: Raheem Morris. I still don’t know about him. I have my doubts. For his part, Morris is convinced that the Bucs are the best team in the NFC. He might be right. Who knows? But I don’t think so. Tampa is 4-2 overall and 2-0 on the road, yet they have a -5.0 average scoring differential. They have a 3-point home win over Cleveland, a 1-point home win over St. Louis, and a road victory over the Panthers. They’ve also lost by 25 points at home twice in their last 4 games.

There’s no question that Tampa fans should be enthused by their team’s start to the season. The Bucs have already equaled their number of wins from last season, and they’ve now won 4 straight road games going back to last year. This game actually could show us something about Tampa. Arizona isn’t any good but it’s a long road trip to the desert for the Bucs. If they are the best team in the NFC they should win this game.

Arizona could really use a win in this game. The Cards have been outscored by 10.4 points a game this year. Arizona is 3-3 overall and just 2-4 ATS, but the Cards are 2-0 at home. They should have Max Hall and Steve Breaston for Sunday’s game.

The Cardinals are hanging around in a weak division, but their recent run of success may come to an end this year. We criticized the Cards over the last few years for their habit of taking games off and taking advantage of their position in the NFC West, but the last 3 years have been the high point of Arizona Cardinals history. From 1985 through 2006, the Cardinals (in Arizona from 1988 on) had losing seasons in 20 of 22 years, with only 1 winning season and 1 season at .500 mixed in. In the last 3 years, the Cardinals put together 3 consecutive non-losing seasons, and they had consecutive winning seasons in the last 2 years. From 1976 through 2007 the Cards made only 2 playoff appearances in 32 years. They made the playoffs in each of the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals have never reached the playoffs in 3 straight seasons.

Minnesota (+5.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Vikings beat the spread
Comment: While it might be annoying to some (many?), this game will have more focus on it than any other in week 8, as it appears likely that Brett Favre will be unable to go due to an ankle injury. If he doesn’t play it will be a major story because it will be the end of his streak of consecutive games. If he does play it will be another dramatic moment in Favre’s long and colorful career.

The Vikings’ season is teetering on the brink at this point. They are 2-4 with an injured QB and an overmatched and ill-suited head coach. It could get ugly if things don’t turn around soon. Unfortunately for the Vikes, they have to play the Patriots in New England this week. Minnesota is 2-4 overall (2-4 ATS) and 0-3 on the road. Including the playoffs, the Vikings have lost 7 straight on the road. Trouble winning on the road is nothing new for the Vikes. Since 1999 (the year after their 15-1 season), including the playoffs, the Vikings are 66-29 at home, and just 34-62 on the road.

The Pats are 5-1 (3-2-1 ATS) and 3-0 at home. They have won 4 straight and have outscored opponents by an average of 6.8 points a game this season. Not including last year’s loss to the Ravens in the playoffs, the Patriots have won 12 straight at home. Somehow the Patriots remain among the elite teams in the NFL, despite all of the changes they have gone through in recent years. They have finished with a winning record in 13 of the last 16 seasons.

The Patriots are much healthier than Minnesota, but they will be without safety Patrick Chung on Sunday. Chung is the guy that almost single handedly got Miami’s special teams coach fired a few weeks ago after his performance on Monday Night Football. Speaking of that game, this will be Randy Moss’ first game in Foxboro since that night, only now he will be wearing purple. In almost any other case that would be the lead story, but whenever Favre is involved he tends to be the lead story.

Seattle (+2.5) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders cover
Comment: This is a matchup of former AFC West rivals. The Seahawks are 4-2 (4-2 ATS) so far under Pete Carroll and they are in 1st place in the NFC West. With a win this week the Seahawks will match their win total of last year and surpass their win total of 2008. While the Seahawks did win their last road game (at Chicago), they were 1-10 in their last 11 road contests prior to that.

The Raiders are coming off of their shocking 59-14 win over the Broncos last Sunday. After scoring 35 points in a game just once in 78 games, the Raiders have put up 35 or more in 2 of their last 3 games. They are 3-4 on the year (4-3 ATS) and have won 3 straight ATS. The Raiders are 2-1 at home. Amazingly, if the Raiders win this Sunday they will end a streak of 5 straight seasons going 2-6 at home.

Sunday Night’s Game

Pittsburgh (+1) @ New Orleans
Pick: Steelers pull off the upset
Comment: This should be an interesting game, as the defending champs host a team that many feel has been the best in the NFL so far this year. The Saints are just 4-3 and they are in 3rd place in the NFC South. They are just 2-2 at home and 1-5 ATS in their last 6. Reggie Bush will not be back this week and Pierre Thomas remains questionable. One thing to remember in all of the hoopla over the Saints is that they still have not managed back to back winning seasons since 1991-1992.

The Steelers are now 5-1 (4-2 ATS) and 3-0 on the road. They have a +9.1 average scoring differential. Maybe this generation of Steelers will be the Spurs of the NFL, winning several championships over the course of 7 to 10 years, but never winning back to back titles.

Monday Night’s Game

Houston (+5.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: A rematch of week 1 and the only divisional game on the slate this week. These 2 teams are tied for 2nd in the AFC South behind Tennessee. The Texans got just their 2nd win in 17 tries against the Colts in week 1, winning 34-24 at home. It will be more difficult in Indianapolis, where the Texans are 0-8 all-time. However, last year’s game was a close one, with a long field goal try by Houston coming up short as time expired to give the Colts a 20-17 win. Houston is 4-2 (3-3 ATS) and 2-0 on the road this season, but they actually have a -2.3 average scoring differential. They are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4. They will also be without LB DeMeco Ryans this week.

The Colts are 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS) and 2-0 at home. They have outscored opponents by an average of 6.4 points per game. However, the Colts are banged up pretty bad right now, with major injuries in the secondary and the receiving corps. Bob Sanders, Dallas Clark, and Austin Collie will be missing this week, among others. Still, including the playoffs, the Colts have won 17 straight at home when actually trying to win (this excludes the loss to the Jets in week 16 last year).