The Braves Blog: NLDS Preview

It came down to the final day of the regular season but in the end the Braves held on and made it to the postseason as the Wild Card. Now they begin the next chapter. They staggered and swayed and coughed down the stretch of the regular season, and they enter the playoffs bruised and battered. There is no doubt that the Braves are long shots to advance in the postseason. But this Atlanta team is averse to quitting. They’ve been resilient all season. Now they will try and defy the odds again.

Final Season Splits

The Braves finished the season 20 games over .500 at 91-71 (.562), ending up 2nd in the East, 6 games behind the Phillies, but 1st in the wild card standings, 1 game better than the Padres. The Braves tied for the 3rd best record in the NL (1 back of the Giants, 6 back of the Phillies) and tied for the 6th best record in the Majors (again, 6 back of the Phillies, who had the best record in baseball). Going into the final weekend of the season the Braves still had the best run differential in the NL, but they wound up 3rd in the NL and 6th in the Majors at +109.

The Braves had the best home record in baseball at 56-25 (.691), but they were just 35-46 (.432) on the road, tied for 8th in the NL and tied for 16th in the ML in that department. In addition, the Braves went just 39-35 after the All-Star break, and they are just 39-36 in their last 75 games. They were 14-16 in September/October, getting outscored 125-105 during that span. The Braves come into the playoffs just 18-20 since August 23rd. The Braves were 29-33 against teams at .500 or better, still the 5th best record in the National League. They went 23-22 in 1-run games (7th best in the NL) and 8-7 in extra innings (6th best in the NL).

Final Offensive Rankings

The Braves were 5th in the NL in runs per game this season. Primarily the Braves got it done by having consistently good at bats, grinding, and getting timely hits. The Braves have little power and even less speed. They finished 11th in the NL in homers and 14th in steals. They were 10th in total bases and hit into the 2nd most GDP in the league. However, the Braves led the NL in walks and were 6th in fewest strikeouts. The Braves were just 10th in the NL in slugging and 6th in batting average, but they led the league in OBP and finished 5th in OPS. They were 1st in the NL in K/BB.

While the Braves don’t steal a lot of bases, at least they realize that it isn’t a strength and only attempt stolen bases every once in a while. The Braves were 4th in fewest times caught stealing, though they were 10th in stolen base percentage. Also, the Braves had the fewest runners thrown out on the bases of any team in the NL this season. The Braves were 7th in the NL in sac bunts and 8th in sac bunt success rate. Braves pinch hitters came up big this season, finishing tied for 1st in the league in pinch homers and 2nd in pinch RBI. Finally, for all of the moaning and growing about leaving runners on base and not hitting well in key spots, the Braves actually finished 6th in the NL in batting average with RISP, and 5th in batting average with RISP and 2 outs.

One thing that we must admit is that the Braves season numbers offensively are not quite as relevant as they normally would be going into the playoffs because the lineup is so dramatically different than it was for the majority of the season.

Final Pitching Rankings

The Braves strength was of course their pitching this season. The Braves were 3rd in runs allowed per game, 3rd in ERA, and 4th in WHIP. They allowed the fewest homers in the league and the 3rd fewest walks. Braves pitchers were 6th in K’s; 3rd in H/9; 2nd in HR/9; 3rd in BB/9; 6th in K/9; and 3rd in K to BB. Those are all excellent numbers. They were 4th in the NL in batting average against and OBP against, and 3rd in slugging percentage against and OPS against. Braves pitchers induced the 3rd most GDP in the league. On the down side, Braves pitchers had a hard time holding runners. They were 11th in SB allowed.

The Braves have a solid starting rotation, as Braves starters were 5th in ERA this season, but they are not big strikeout guys and they very rarely go 8 or 9 innings. The Braves were tied for 12th in complete games this season and they were 1 of only 2 NL teams that didn’t have a single complete game shutout this year. In addition, the Braves finished just tied for 10th in quality starts. On the other hand, Braves starters were 5th in innings per start.

The Braves bullpen may have been the team’s greatest strength this year, as they finished 3rd in the NL in bullpen ERA. They were tied for 5th in saves; tied 7th in fewest blown saves; 6th in save percentage; and 6th in holds. They were also 7th in inherited runners stranded percentage.

Final Defensive Rankings

In large part due to all of the injuries and lineup changes that the Braves went through during the season, they essentially fell apart defensively during the second half. The Braves ended the season tied for the 2nd most errors in the NL and 12th in fielding percentage. They were 8th in defensive efficiency and 3rd in double plays turned, but shoddy defense towards the end of the season nearly cost them a spot in the playoffs.

Team Trends

The Braves had 46 come from behind wins this season but they also suffered 29 come from ahead losses. One issue the Braves face going into the playoffs is the rise in the level of pitching they are going to face on a nightly basis in the postseason. Because of all of the injuries which have decimated the Braves lineup, they are very susceptible to being absolutely shutdown by great pitching (as we saw in Philly). The trouble is that while the Braves pitching has been excellent, as I mentioned before, they are more consistently good than dominant. When the Braves scored 2 runs or fewer this season they were 5-40. When they scored 3 runs or less they were only 15-41. When the Braves scored less than 5 runs this year they were just 34-66. I’ve mentioned before in this blog that 5 was a magic number for the Braves this season. Indeed, when the Braves scored 5 runs or more this season they were a ridiculous 57-5. On the other side of things, when the Braves allowed 3 runs or less this season they were 71-21. When they allowed more than 3 runs they were 20-50.

Braves NLDS Roster

The Braves had fairly good luck with injuries during the first few months of the season. But over the final few months of the season their luck turned from good to horrific. It continued right up to the final week of the season. The Braves will be without Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, and Kris Medlen for the entire postseason. They will be without Jair Jurrjens, Takashi Saito, and Eric O’Flaherty for at least the NLDS. The Braves will have 5 rookie pitchers in their bullpen, including several who only became fixtures of the team in the last few weeks of the season. They will also have a few guys playing out of position in the field. In addition, the Braves bench, a strength throughout the season, has suddenly become thin and not flexible at all. In many ways Bobby Cox will be managing this series with his hands tied.

San Francisco Final Season Splits

The Giants overtook the Padres late in the year to win the NL West by 2 games, finishing 92-70 (.568), with the 2nd best record in the NL (5 back of the Phils) and the 5th best record in the ML (again, 5 back of the Phils). The Giants weren’t quite as dominant at home as you might expect, finishing with the 5th best home record in the NL at 49-32 (.605). However, they were one of the best road teams in the NL, finishing 3rd with a 43-38 (.531) record in away games.


The Giants had a run differential of +114, 2nd best in the NL and 4th best in all of baseball.
The Giants went 33-41 against teams at .500 or better (7th in the NL). They were 28-24 in 1-run games (3rd) and 11-8 in extra innings (tied for 3rd). The Giants went 51-30 in their last 81 games, going 45-29 after the All-Star break. They were 19-10 in September/October and they go into the playoffs having won 9 of their last 13.

San Francisco Final Offensive Rankings

There’s a common perception that the Giants are a dominant pitching team and a weak hitting team. This is a major exaggeration. To be sure, hitting is the Giants’ weakness, but they are not a weak hitting team. Their numbers do not look great but it must be remembered that they play 81 games at a serious pitchers park. More importantly, the Giants made major upgrades to their lineup as the season went on. Overall, they finished just 9th in the NL in runs per game; 7th in batting average; 10th in OBP; 6th in slugging; and 8th in OPS. However, they wound up 6th in the NL in homers and 5th in fewest strikeouts.

San Fran has a few major problem areas offensively. They are extremely slow; perhaps the only team in the NL slower than the Braves. They finished tied for last in stolen bases and dead last in SB%. They hit into more GDP than any team in the NL. Another issue for the Giants is that they don’t walk all that much, finishing 13th in bases on balls. Finally, the Giants struggled mightily in the “clutch” hitting department. They were dead last in the NL in batting average with RISP and 15th in batting average with RISP and 2 out.

San Francisco Final Pitching Rankings

As everyone knows, the Giants rely on pitching and defense. They were 2nd in the league this season in runs allowed; 1st in ERA; and 3rd in WHIP. The Giant pitchers are power pitchers. They depend on the strikeout and they led the NL in K’s this season. They were also 1st in H/9 and K/9. They were 1st in the NL in batting average against; 3rd in OBP against; and 2nd in slugging against and OPS against. They were tied for the 3rd fewest homers allowed but they were 1st in HR/9. The Giants will walk some guys. They were 14th in fewest BB this season and just 6th in K/BB despite leading the league in strikeouts. They finished 14th in BB/9.

San Fran’s starting pitchers are excellent. The Giants finished 2nd in the NL in starters ERA this season, and they were tied for 4th in both complete games and complete game shutouts. They were tied for 2nd in quality starts and 2nd in innings per start.

As great as San Fran’s starters are, I think you’d have to say that their relievers were even better this year. The Giants were 2nd in the NL in BP ERA and they led the NL in saves and save percentage. They were also tops in the NL in inherited runners stranded percentage.

San Francisco Final Defensive Rankings

The 2nd half of the Giants’ recipe for winning is defense. They committed the 3rd fewest errors in the NL this season, also finishing 3rd in fielding percentage. It should be pointed out that because Giant pitchers throw so many strikeouts, the players in the field don’t have anywhere near the number of chances that most defenses face. However, the Giants led the NL in defensive efficiency, which is an estimate of the number of balls put into play that were turned into outs. The Giants were last in GDP, but again, this is largely due to the number of strikeouts thrown by their pitchers.

Team Trends

The Giants had 37 come from behind wins and 22 come from ahead losses. Obviously, the Giants offense doesn’t have to do much to give the pitching staff enough to be successful. When the Giants scored more than 3 runs this season they were 69-12. However, when they allowed 3 or more runs they were just 37-58. The key to beating the Giants is to grab the lead early. Even being tied with the Giants in the mid to late innings this season was a very bad position to be in. But you want to avoid trailing the Giants late in the game at all cost. Actually, you don’t want to fall behind them period. Clearly you never want to fall behind anyone, but it’s especially the case against this team. When the Giants had a lead after 1 inning this season they were 32-12. After 2 innings they were 44-8. After 3 innings they were 55-4. If you go into the late innings trailing the Giants you are pretty much done for. They were 72-5 when leading after 7 innings this season and 79-3 when leading after 8.

Regular Season Series

The Braves went 4-3 against the Giants this season, outscoring them 28-21. The Braves first road series of the season came at San Fran, where they lost 2 of 3, despite outscoring the Giants 14-13. They really should have won the series, but Billy Wagner blew a 2-run lead in the 9th in the opener and the Braves eventually lost 5-4 in 13 innings. The Braves won 7-2 the next day, before losing 6-3 to Tim Lincecum in the finale. The Giants did not come to Atlanta until early August. This time the Braves took 3 of 4, outscoring the Giants 14-8, and they could easily have swept. They won 3-2 in the opener, beating Lincecum this time. They had the lead late in the 2nd game but Wagner couldn’t close it out and they lost 3-2 in 11. They won 7-0 the next day and then 6-3 in the finale. The Braves went 1-2 against the Giants in 1-run games this season and 0-2 in extra innings.

Braves Postseason Trends

It’s been a while since the Braves were in the postseason. In fact, only Tim Hudson and Brian McCann remain from the team that lost to the Astros in the 2005 NLDS. Still, I think all of the Braves history going back to 1991 is in play for discussion because it has all occurred during Bobby’s time as manager. Historically, game 1 has been a huge game for the Braves in terms of giving a clue as to their ultimate fate in the series. Going back to 1991, the Braves are 12-13 in game 1’s, though they have lost 5 straight. They are 5-6 in NLDS game 1’s, losing their last 4. The Braves record in series in which they won game 1 is 10-2. In the series in which they lost game 1 they 2-11. The Braves record in the NLDS after winning game 1 is 5-0. Their record in the NLDS after losing game 1 is 1-5.

This will be the Braves 2nd time going up against the Giants in the NLDS. In 2002, the Braves lost the opener at home to the Giants but then came back and won the next 2 games. However, they lost game 4 in San Fran and then lost at home again in game 5 to lose the series. That was one of the rare instances in which the Braves lost a series in which they had the lead going into an elimination game. The only other such instance came in the 1991 World Series when they led 3-2 over the Twins. That series loss to the Giants started the Braves on a streak of 4 straight first round exits that they will carry with them into this postseason.

Team Comparisons

Hitting: Slight edge to the Giants

If the Braves had Chipper Jones and Martin Prado healthy for this series I would definitely give us the edge in the overall offensive department. But the Braves are just not the same team without arguably their 2 best hitters. Then you add in the fact that Brian McCann, Omar Infante, and Alex Gonzalez all enter the postseason in major slumps. Jason Heyward has also been slumping recently. In addition, because of an emphasis on defense, Cox has insisted on starting Rick Ankiel every game against righties, and this really shortens the lineup. The Giants have more pop in the lineup than the Braves right now with Juan Uribe, Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Buster Posey all capable of going yard.

Starting Pitching: Slight edge to the Giants

I have to give the edge to San Fran here because of the fact that power pitching is what usually works in the postseason. Also, the Giants’ pitchers have been able to go deeper into games than Atlanta’s starters. In addition, the Braves’ best starter this season, Tim Hudson, ended the year looking worn out and shaky. Plus, he’s only going to pitch once in this series.

Bullpen: Slight edge to the Giants

The Braves bullpen was tremendous this season but the Giants had the best bullpen in baseball. Furthermore, the Braves are missing 2 of their best relievers, and they are going with a pen of rookies. Plus, Johnny Venters, perhaps the Braves best reliever this year, is clearly worn out, having made 79 appearances in his first year in the Majors.

Bench: Edge to the Giants

The Braves bench was a strength all season, but the fact of the matter is that the bench is now in the starting lineup to a large extent. The Braves have only 1 middle infielder on the roster who will be available to come off the bench and it’s Diory Hernandez. Omar Infante and Brooks Conrad will be in the starting lineup. The Giants added a number of key pieces to the bench over the last few months, and they will have guys like Edgar Renteria, Aaron Rowand, and Cody Ross available to enter the game, while the Braves will be turning to Melkey Cabrera.

Defense: Edge to the Giants

My biggest worry going into this series is the defense. The Braves have defensive liabilities at 2nd, 3rd, and in left. Once again, the injuries are the main cause of the Braves problems, as Brooks Conrad is not a good fielder at any position and Omar is more comfortable at 2nd. It doesn’t seem like the Giants would be a great defensive team, with the Panda at 3rd, Huff at first, and Burrell in left. But the Giants have been one of the better fielding teams in the NL this season.

Can the Braves Win?

Yes. Look, there’s no question that we’re underdogs in this thing. It will be tough to win this series. But it’s definitely something that can be done. I believe the key will be shortening the game. If the starters can get the game to the bullpen with the lead the Braves could win this thing. But they’ll have to play better defense than they have over the last 6 weeks. Also, the Braves have to do what they do best at the plate, and that is battle, and work the count, and draw walks. The Giants pitchers do walk a lot of guys, so the Braves could end up taking advantage of that, if they can put the ball in play. Finally, the Braves won 4 of 7 against San Fran this season and they could easily have won 6 of 7. It’s a different team now but it’s also a new season. Anything can happen. We know as well as anyone that the best team on paper doesn’t always win. We haven’t been the best team on paper all season and we still managed to win 91 games and make the playoffs. There’s no reason to think we’re out of it now.