The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 8 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 5-5; Vs. Spread: 8-2)

Overall (Straight up: 40-14; Vs. Spread: 34-19-1; Moneyline Upsets: 2-3)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 51-19; Vs. Spread: 31-34-5)

Overall (Straight up: 266-79; Vs. Spread: 170-169-6; Moneyline Upsets: 8-19)

Week 7 Review: Gotta be honest people. I did not think I would get my overall record against the spread over .500 again this season. I have to be happy with last week’s results, although I’d like to be better than 5-5 picking the winners of the biggest 10 games.

Week 8 Preview: This week is a bit strange, in that there are a few huge matchups and not much else. Although as we learned again last week, you never know which games or which weeks will really be the most interesting. As for my picks, I have a bad feeling about this week.

Saturday

Game 1: Notre Dame (-7) vs. Navy
Pick: Navy beats the spread
Comment: This game used to be a source of continual annoyance, as it was another automatic win for Notre Dame that they could use to pad their win-loss record (while still somehow claiming to play a tough schedule). In recent years, however, this game has been one of the most enjoyable of the season, as Navy has either won—dealing painful blows to the Irish fans—or very nearly won—which is almost as good because it still makes ND look like a joke. Notre Dame had won 43 straight over Navy through the 2006 season, but the Midshipmen have won 2 of the last 3. Both of those wins came at Notre Dame. In 2008 Navy made a furious comeback and nearly shocked the Irish again before falling 27-21. The last 3 games have been decided by a total of 10 points. This game will be played at the new stadium in East Rutherford. Both teams are banged up going into this one, but the Irish have won their last 3 games.

Game 2: Wisconsin (+6) @ Iowa
Pick: Wisconsin beats the spread
Comment: This game gained a lot in significance when the Badgers knocked off Ohio State last week. The Big Ten race is still a long way from being decided. One thing we do know is that Iowa is going to play a major role in deciding who ends up winning the conference title. Iowa, whose only loss so far this season came out of conference, plays 1-loss Wisconsin this week, undefeated Michigan State next week, and 1-loss Ohio State on November 20th. All 3 games will be played in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes have played very well against Wisconsin in recent years. They have won 2 straight over the Badgers and 6 of their last 8. Wisconsin benefited greatly from playing at home last week, and they will have to go on the road this week. They won’t have much time to get their huge win over the Buckeyes out of their system before they have to play perhaps an even tougher game, considering that they won’t have the home field advantage this time.

Game 3: Oklahoma (-3) @ Missouri
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comment: This is one of two matchups of undefeated teams from power conferences this Saturday. Missouri has already lost their starting safety for the season and they really need defensive end Aldon Smith to play through a leg injury this week. It may not even matter. Oklahoma is 7-0 against the Tigers under Bob Stoops and they have won 20 of the last 21 games between these two teams. However, Oklahoma was just 1-3 on the road last season and the Sooners struggled on the road against Cincinnati earlier this season.

Game 4: LSU (+6) @ Auburn
Pick: Auburn covers
Comment: This game is usually big and almost always interesting. This year it will be huge, as this is the other matchup of undefeated teams this weekend. The home team has come out on top in 9 of the last 10 in this series, but LSU won the last time here in 2008, and the Bayou Bengals have won 3 straight over Auburn. LSU won 31-10 last year and that was a major change, as the previous 5 games had been decided by a total of 19 points. I still have some questions about how good Auburn really is, mainly concerning the defense. However, I have many more questions about how good LSU actually is. I think at some point LSU’s mistakes and weaknesses are going to catch up with them. But if they win this game it will be hard to deny them legitimacy.

Game 5: Air Force (+18.5) @ TCU
Pick: TCU covers
Comment: Heading into last week this game was within shouting distance of being almost interesting. Then Air Force had a very bad night in San Diego late Saturday. Things had been going so well for the Falcons. Earlier this season they finally beat BYU, winning 35-14 over a team that had beaten them by at least 14 points in each of the last 6 years. They lost at Oklahoma the next week but the real story was that the final score was 27-24. Two weeks later the Falcons won 14-6 over rival Navy, snapping a 7 game losing streak to the Midshipmen. They were 5-1 heading into last week’s game, but they fell behind 7-0 to the Aztecs midway through the 2nd quarter and they were chasing the rest of the night. They went for 2 twice and failed both times, including once with 2:08 on the clock in the 4th when it was initially ruled that they had tied the game at 20-20, but the play was overturned on replay, and they ruled that the ball carrier did not break the plane before his knee touched. They would go one to lose 27-25. Making matters worse, fullback Jared Tew, a key player at a key position for the Falcons, broke his fibula early in the game and will miss the rest of the season. Air Force has now lost 2 starting defensive linemen, a starting defensive back, a starting fullback, and a handful of backups to serious injuries. TCU probably would have blown out a healthy AF team, but at least there would be some chance of TCU getting knocked off. I expect TCU to win easily. Air Force won 20-17 in OT in 2007, and last year they lost by a score of just 20-17, but both of those games were in Colorado Springs. In their last trip to Fort Worth, the Falcons got hammered 44-10. TCU has won 18 home games in a row, and the Horned Frogs have now won their last 20 regular season games.

Game 6: Michigan State (-5) @ Northwestern
Pick: Michigan State covers
Comment: This could have easily been a third battle of unbeaten teams had the Wildcats not fallen at home to Purdue their last time out. The Cats had the bye week to regroup, but they’ve now lost 3 straight against the spread. Michigan State just keeps on rolling. The Spartans have won 4 straight against the spread, and they’ve also won 3 of the last 4 in this series. The home team had lost 4 straight in this series until the Spartans won in East Lansing last year.

Game 7: Nebraska (-6) @ Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State beats the spread
Comment: This could also have easily been a battle of unbeaten teams, but Nebraska shit themselves at home against the Longhorns last week. The Cornhuskers are banged up to be sure, and Texas was coming off of a bye, but Nebraska also just played badly in many ways. Their freshman QB was shutdown and benched, and they dropped what seemed like a dozen passes, some of which would have gone for big plays or scores. Now the Cornhuskers have to go on the road, but they have won 7 of their last 8 road games. Oklahoma State has won 14 of their last 17 home games. The Cowboys are just 5-36-1 all-time against Nebraska, but they have won 2 in a row and 3 of the last 4. Oklahoma State has won 4 in a row against the spread.

Game 8: Alabama (-16.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Alabama covers
Comment: The dynamics of this rivalry have changed over the last 5 or 6 years. Bama has regained its place among the elite programs in college football, while Tennessee has fallen to a depth it hasn’t seen since the late 70’s. The Vols are coming off of a bye but they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread. Alabama is just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 game, but the Tide has won 3 straight and 4 of 5 over the Vols. The home team has won this game in 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Game 9: North Carolina (+6.5) @ Miami
Pick: North Carolina beats the spread
Comment: During the offseason I looked at this game and thought it could be the biggest of the season in the ACC. Now it’s barley of any consequence, as the Tar Heels have been compromised by all of the eligibility problems, and the Canes have been leveled by injuries. UNC has shown some heart, winning their last 4 games (4-0 ATS), while Miami has been humbled a few times this season and struggled against Duke last week. UNC has been the underdog in this matchup each of the last 3 seasons, but the Heels have won 3 in a row over Miami, including their last time here in 2008.

Game 10: Washington (+6) @ Arizona
Pick: Washington beats the spread
Comment: This isn’t a very meaningful or exciting game, but there weren’t many other options. It’s also the final game of week 8, one of only two games that starts after 9:00 PM next week, and one of only 4 games to start after 8:00 PM. So if you like to stay up and watch football late into the night the way I do it will be a bit of a downer this week. I’m slightly surprised that this spread isn’t smaller considering that Arizona QB Nick Folk will miss the game, and Washington won their last road game at USC. That win ended a 13 game losing skid on the road for the Huskies. They are just 2-4 against the spread this season, but the Wildcats have lost 3 in a row against the spread. Also, in their last 2 home games, Arizona has lost to Oregon State and beaten Cal, 10-9. The Huskies just beat Oregon State in overtime last Saturday night. However, Washington has yet to win back to back games this season.

Earlier I was talking about staying up late and watching the west coast games long after midnight, and one of the reasons that I really enjoy doing that is that you often see games and plays that most other people don’t. Last year’s Arizona-Washington game was certainly worth staying up for, and the ending was one of my favorite moments of last season. Arizona controlled the game throughout and they appeared to have the game won, but Washington made a miraculous comeback that had to be one of the best moments any Washington fan had experienced at Husky Stadium in quite a while. The play that changed everything was a ridiculous pick-six on a ball that bounced off an Arizona receiver’s shoe and into the arms of a Washington defensive back who took it to the house. Watching it live it was one of the most insane plays I’ve ever seen. Nobody else seems to share my high opinion of the play, but I think maybe you had to be watching the game and understanding what was going on to truly realize how crazy it was. And I still maintain, that if it happened in a high profile game it would be recognized as one of the most memorable plays ever. If you can find the play online or something you should check it out.

Other Games

Thursday

UCLA (+21.5) @ Oregon (Oregon covers)

Friday

South Florida (+7.5) @ Cincinnati (Cinci covers)

Saturday

Penn State (-9.5) @ Minnesota (Minnesota beats the spread)

Purdue (+23) @ Ohio State (Ohio State covers)

Rutgers (+13) @ Pittsburgh (Rutgers beats the spread)

Iowa State (+21) @ Texas (Texas covers)

Duke (+26) @ Virginia Tech (VT covers)

Syracuse (+14.5) @ West Virginia (WV covers)

Temple (-7) @ Buffalo (Temple covers)

Indiana (+14) @ Illinois (Indiana beats the spread)

Mississippi (Pick) @ Arkansas (Arkansas covers)

Maryland (+3.5) @ Boston College (Maryland beats the spread)

Florida Atlantic (+8.5) @ Arkansas State (Ark St. covers)

Ohio (-3) @ Miami (Ohio) (Miami (OH) beats the spread)

Kansas State (+6) @ Baylor (KSU beats the spread)

Wyoming (+10.5) @ BYU (BYU covers)

Houston (+7.5) @ SMU (SMU covers)

Louisiana Tech (+6) @ Clemson (Clemson covers)

Western Michigan (-7.5) @ Akron (WM covers)

Rice (+22) @ Central Florida (CF covers)

Kent State (-2.5) @ Bowling Green (Kent State covers)

Connecticut (-2) @ Louisville (Louisville pulls off the upset)

Arizona State (+3) @ California (Cal covers)

Texas Tech (-2.5) @ Colorado (Texas Tech covers)

Central Michigan (+9.5) @ Northern Illinois (NIU covers)

Marshall (+12.5) @ East Carolina (ECU covers)

Louisiana-Monroe (+11.5) @ Middle Tennessee State (ULM beats the spread)

Washington State (+34.5) @ Stanford (Stanford covers)

New Mexico State (+24) @ Idaho (Idaho covers)

Western Kentucky (+6.5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (WK beats the spread)

Hawaii (-3.5) @ Utah State (Utah State beats the spread)

Colorado State (+30.5) @ Utah (Utah covers)

Eastern Michigan (+24.5) @ Virginia (UVA covers)

UAB (+19.5) @ Mississippi State (Mississippi State covers)

South Carolina (-12) @ Vanderbilt (Vandy beats the spread)

Texas A&M (-13.5) @ Kansas (A&M covers)

Ball State (+12) @ Toledo (Toledo covers)

Georgia (-3.5) @ Kentucky (Kentucky beats the spread)

Tulane (+10) @ UTEP (UTEP covers)

San Diego State (-23) @ New Mexico (San Diego State covers)