The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 4 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (11-5); Straight Up: (9-7)

Season: Vs. Spread (21-26-1); Straight Up: (26-22)

Week 3 Review: Finally a decent week.

Week 4 Preview: There are 2 fewer games this week, as 4 teams are idle. It should be an interesting week, with 9 of the 14 matchups being inter-divisional games. I’m going with lots of heavy favorites and you know that could spell a disastrous week for me.

Sunday’s Early Games

New York Jets (-5) @ Buffalo
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: The Bills were much more competitive than I expected last week at New England, putting up 30 points, after scoring only 17 total points in their first 2 games. But Buffalo might not score any points against the Jets.

Baltimore (+1) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: Can the Steelers make it a clean sweep without Big Ben to start the season? This will be their toughest test yet, but the Steelers have won 7 of 8 at home over the Ravens.

Seattle (-1) @ St. Louis
Pick: Seahawks cover
Comment: Here’s an annoying thought if you are me: unless the Rams find a way to win their 2nd straight game, Pete Carroll’s Seahawks will be in the driver’s seat in the NFC West. No Steven Jackson again for the Lambs this week, and the Seahawks have swept St. Louis 5 years in a row.

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: As a Falcons fan, this pick makes me nervous. But we are a good team and the Niners are reeling. Plus, San Fran will be making a long trip across the country, and we destroyed them at Candlestick last year.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Cleveland
Pick: Bengals cover
Comment: You always hesitate to take the Bengals on the road ATS. Going into this season they were just 1-7 ATS as a road favorite since the start of 2007, but they covered last week as a favorite at Carolina. These games are often close and at times a bit wacky. Cleveland has been competitive in all 3 of their games this season and they could be due for a win.

Denver (+6.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans cover
Comment: Yeah, so what happened to that quarterback the Broncos took in the first round? 3 games, no pass attempts, 2 rushing attempts for 2 yards. Hmm.

Carolina (+13.5) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: Carolina is the worst team in football and the Saints should be angry. However, the Panthers have lost all 3 of their games this season by 13 points. In this situation, losing by 13 would be covering. And do you realize that the Panthers have won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these 2 teams? New Orleans has not been an intimidating place for the Panthers. Carolina has won 8 of their last 9 at New Orleans. But the Panthers have also scored just 7 points in each of their last 2 games, and both of those games were at home.

Detroit (+14.5) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: This is a big spread and the Packers will be playing on a short week, but they should be motivated to smash the Lions after their tough loss on Monday night. Detroit has had some tough luck this season and the Lions will again be without Matt Stafford. They lost by 14 at Minnesota last week, and the Packers have won 9 in a row over the Lions by an average of 15 points.

Sunday’s Late Games

Houston (-3) @ Oakland
Pick: Texans win but Raiders beat the spread
Comment: This might seem like a strange thing to say, but I actually think this is a bigger game for the Texans than last week’s home game against instate rival Dallas. The Texans weren’t going to be able to make a total transition from pretender to contender all in one swing. They fell back to reality last week. But if the Texans are truly going to get over the hump, they have to win games like this, on the road, against a weak opponent.

Indianapolis (-8) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: Since losing in week 1, the Colts have won by 24 over the Giants and by 14 at Denver. Indy has won 3 straight and 5 of 6 at Jacksonville. And the Jags just lost at home to the Eagles, 28-3.

Washington (+6) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles win but Skins beat the spread
Comment: The Donovan McNabb story is impossible to ignore. The added element of Michael Vick makes it all the more interesting. But beyond those story lines, this is a pivotal game for both teams. After opening the season coming out on top in a game they were very fortunate to win, the Skins have had back to back disastrous losses. First they blew a big lead to the Texans at home. Then last week they went to St. Louis and got beat by 14. If they lose this week and fall to 1-3, it could get ugly in the first season of the Shanahan/McNabb era in DC. On the other side, the Eagles have stumbled into something very promising with Vick, but they really need one more victory here to solidify that they made the right move. They need to win this game to get to 3-1 and make clear to the rest of the League, to the city, and to themselves that they have been reborn as a new team led by Vick.

Arizona (+9) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Cards beat the spread
Comment: So the Chargers have already lost twice to teams that they had no business losing to. Wow. I’m so totally shocked. This is the Super Bowl of teams that take games off because they know that they play in a shitty division and can get away with it. The only thing that has changed is that Arizona isn’t any good anymore. But who wants to bet on the Chargers at this point?

Sunday Night’s Game

Chicago (+4) @ New York Giants
Pick: Bears pull off the upset
Comment: The Bears will be playing on a short week and it will be tough for them to win another big game. Don’t get me wrong, I’m far from a big time believer in the Bears. I am, however, convinced that the Giants as currently constructed are finished.

Monday Night’s Game

New England (-1) @ Miami
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: Of course this line had to be set at 1 so that there could be no possibility of hedging. We all know the history in this series. It’s a tossup. I don’t know who will win, but I’ll be rooting for the Pats and against the Dolphins.