The Braves Blog: Philadelphia Series Preview

Somewhat surprisingly, the Braves began their last road trip of the season with a 3 game sweep of the New York Mets. Unfortunately, now that the Braves seem to have momentarily dislodged whatever it was that was stuck firmly in their throats, the Bravos must head over to Philadelphia to face a very different opponent. The Braves are now 86-74 (.573) and in 2nd place in the East, 3 games back of the 1st place Phillies. The Braves have the 2nd best record in the National League, 2 games better than the Reds and the Giants. Atlanta is in 1st place in the Wild Card standings, 2.5 games in front of the Padres and 3.5 games ahead of the Rockies.

Despite being on the fringe of the playoffs, the Braves have a +122 run differential which is tops in the NL. Even with the 3 game sweep of the Mets at Citi Field, the Braves are still just 34-41 (.453) on the road. The Braves are back to .500 in September at 9-9. The Bravos are 20-21 in 1-run games and 7-7 in extra innings.

Philadelphia Series Preview

The Phillies are hotter than hot and finally playing like the team everyone expected them to be. There’s no reason to expect them to revert back to their ways of the first 4.5 months of the season. They stayed hot on Sunday, coming from 3 back in the 9th against the Nats at home to win 7-6 for their 7th straight victory. They are now 89-61 (.593) and 50-28 (.641) at Citizens Bank. The Phils are 15-3 in September and 42-21 since the All-Star Break. They are 11-1 in their last 12, 16-3 in their last 19, and 19-4 in their last 23. The Phils are a ridiculous 27-15 in 1-run games and 11-6 in extra innings.

Season Series

The Braves are 7-5 against the Phillies this season, having outscored them just 46-44 over those 12 games. The Bravos have even hung in their pretty well in Philly, going 3-3 there so far this season. It’s been an interesting season series to this point. It started off well for the Braves, as they got one of their many dramatic late game comeback wins in their first game against the Phils back on April 20th at Turner Field. The Braves scored 3 in the 9th on homers by Troy Glaus and Jayson Heyward to tie the game at 3-3, and then won in the 10th on a homer by Nate McLouth. But the Phillies won the last 2 games to take the series. A few weeks later in early May the Braves dropped 2 of the 3 to the Phils in Philadelphia, again being outscored 13-7 during the series.

But by the end of the month things had changed, as the Braves pulled off a 3 game sweep of the Phillies at the Ted, outscoring Philly 18-7 during the series. Then in early July the Braves found a way to win 2 of 3 over the Phils at Citizens Bank, outscoring the Phillies 14-11 over the course of the 3 games. The Braves have won 5 of the last 6 games in the season series. Amazingly, while the Phillies have had tremendous luck in close games and extra inning games this season, the Braves are somehow 2-0 against the Phillies in 1-run games and 2-0 against them in extra inning affairs.

Phillies Stats

The Phillies have finally gotten rolling offensively, and as any Braves fan knows, that is a scary thing. The Phils are now 3rd in the NL in runs per game and 5th in homers. They are 5th in stolen bases but they are by far the best base stealing team in the NL with an 83% SB success rate. The Phils are 4th in walks and 3rd in fewest strikeouts. They are 7th in the NL in batting average; 6th in OBP; 5th in Slugging; and 5th in OPS.

The scariest thing about the Phillies is that their offense isn’t even their strength anymore, it’s their starting pitching. Overall, the Phillies are 6th in the NL in runs allowed per game, 6th in ERA, and 3rd in WHIP. They lead the NL in complete games and complete game shutouts. They are tied for 2nd in the NL in team shutouts. The rotation has been excellent, especially since Roy Oswalt joined the Phils. The Phils are 3rd in the NL in starter ERA and tied 2nd in quality starts. The bullpen hasn’t been as strong as the rotation. The Phils are 9th in the NL in bullpen ERA and 10th in the NL with a 67% Save success rate.

The Phils have been a solid defensive team this season in spite of all the injuries. They are 5th in the NL in fewest errors and 4th in Fielding Percentage. They are 5th in Defensive Efficiency and 5th in double plays.

Pitching Matchups

Monday

Jair Jurrgens vs. Cole Hamels

The opener is going to be an absolutely huge game, and the Braves desperately need a good performance from Jurrgens. Double-J is now 7-6 in 20 starts this season with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The Braves are 12-8 with him on the mound and he has thrown 10 Quality Starts. Jurrgens has struggled mightily on the road this year, going 1-4 with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 10 starts. He has thrown 5 QS on the road and the Braves are actually 4-6 in his 10 road starts.

Since coming back from a hamstring injury on June 30th, Jurrgens has gone 7-3 in 15 starts but with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. The Braves have gone 10-5 in those 15 starts despite the fact that he has only notched 8 QS during that time. In his last 5 starts Jurrgens is 2-2 but with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. He has just 1 QS over that time and the Braves are 2-3 in his last 5 starts. JJ got the job done in his only start against the Phils this season. Back on July 6th, Jurrgens went 6 innings at Citizens Bank, allowing just 3 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks with 4 K’s. He got a no-decision but the Braves wound up winning it 6-3.

Hamels has found himself again and is once more one of the best left handed starters in the game. He is just 11-10 with 1 Complete Game in 30 starts this year but he has posted a 3.01 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He has 20 QS but the Phillies have somehow gone just 17-13 with him on the mound. At home, Hamels is just 6-5 in 16 starts, despite a 2.99 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He has 11 QS at Citizens Bank but the Phillies are just 8-8 there with Hamels on the mound. Hamels has been very unlucky this season, especially over the last 3 months or so. Since June 7th, Hamels has posted a 2.42 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 19 starts but has just a 6-6 record. He’s thrown QS in 15 of his last 19 starts but the Phillies are just 10-9 in those games. Lately Hamels has started to be rewarded for his good work. He is 4-0 in his last 5 starts with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP. The Phillies have won 4 of his last 5 starts and he has thrown a QS in all 5 of those games.

Hamels has had a weird year against the Braves. His first start against the Braves this season came at home on May 9th, when he allowed 3 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks with 5 K over 5 innings to get the win in the Phillies 5-3 victory. Then on the first day of June at Atlanta Hamels had one of the shortest starts of his career, allowing 3 runs on 2 hits and a walk over just 0.2 innings before hitting the showers. He got the loss, as the Braves won 7-3. On July 6th Hamels faced the Braves at home, going 7 innings and allowing 3 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks with 8 K. He took a no-decision and the Braves went on to win it 6-3. In 3 starts against the Braves this season Hamels is 1-1 but with a 6.39 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP over 12.2 innings. He has thrown only 1 QS against them and the Phillies are 1-2 in his 3 starts against the Braves.

Tuesday

Mike Minor vs. Roy Halladay

Obviously the Braves will not have the starting pitching advantage in game 2. Minor’s main task on Tuesday will be to complete 6 innings and keep the Braves from having to wear out their bullpen. Minor is 3-1 in his 7 starts but with a 5.84 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. The Braves are 4-3 with Minor on the mound and he has tossed 3 QS. Minor is 1-0 in 3 road starts but with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He has made 2 QS on the road but the Braves are just 1-2 in his 3 road starts. Minor has really struggled in his last 3 starts, going 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. The Braves are 1-2 over his last 3 starts and he did not throw a QS in any of those games.

Roy Halladay just might be the best pitcher in the game right now. He is 19-10 in 31 starts with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. The right hander has thrown 8 CG and 3 SHO. He has 23 QS and the Phillies are 20-11 with him on the mound. He has been excellent in Philly, going 11-5 in 17 home starts with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He has thrown 4 CG, 1 SHO, and 14 QS at home, and the Phillies are 12-5 with him on the mound at Citizens Bank.

Halladay has completely shut down the Braves in 2 starts against them this season. On April 21st at Turner Field, Halladay shutout the Braves on 5 hits and a walk with 7 K in the Phillies 2-0 win. On July 5th at home, Halladay went the distance again, this time allowing just 1 run on 5 hits and a walk with 7 K in a 3-1 Philly victory. In his 2 starts against the Braves this season, Halladay is 2-0 with a 0.50 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, and 14 K over 18 innings. If there is anything the Braves can look to for confidence it is the fact that Halladay has been slightly off his game recently. He is 3-0 over his last 3 starts but has thrown only 1 QS over that stretch, posting a 4.79 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 20.2 innings.

Wednesday

Tommy Hanson vs. Roy Oswalt

The finale of this series will also be huge. Again, the Braves really need Tommy Hanson to come up big for them on Wednesday. Hanson is just 10-11 in 31 starts but the Braves are 18-13 with him on the mound. Hanson has posted a 3.62 ERA and a1.20 WHIP this season, and he has thrown 17 QS. Hanson has a 3.44 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and 8 QS in 15 road starts this season. He is just 5-6 on the road but the Braves are 9-6 with him on the mound in 15 starts away from home. Tommy has actually been very good over the last few months but his record doesn’t show it. Since July 3rd, Hanson has thrown 10 QS in 15 starts with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, but he has just a 3-6 record in those starts and the Braves are just 7-8 in those games. Hanson is 2-1 in his last 4 starts with a 2.77 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. He has thrown QS in 3 of his last 4 starts and the Braves are 3-1 in those games.

Hanson has fared okay against the Phillies so far this season. On April 20th against the Phils at Turner Field, Hanson allowed only 2 runs on 6 hits and a walk with 4 K but lasted only 4.2 innings. He took a no-decision as the Braves came from behind to win 4-3. On May 31st Hanson again faced the Phils at home, this time going 6.2 innings and allowing 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks with 2 K to get the win in a 9-3 Braves victory. He has allowed 3 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks with 6 K over 11.1 innings in 2 starts against the Phils this season. But both of those starts were at home.

Oswalt has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for when they brought him over in a trade a couple of months ago. Overall in 2010, Oswalt is 13-13 with 2 CG, 2 SHO, a 2.90 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and 23 QS in 30 starts for the Astros and Phillies. In 10 starts with the Phils, Oswalt is 7-1 with 1 CG, a 1.94 ERA, and a 0.95 WHIP. He has tossed 8 QS in his 10 starts with Philly and the Phils are 9-1 with him on the mound. In fact, they’ve won his last 9 starts.

Outlook

Outlook? Well, to be honest, it isn’t very good. Considering that the Braves are just 3 games back of the Phillies with 12 games to play, this might sound like a very strange statement, but I would probably take losing 2 of 3 in this series if someone offered it to me. The 3-game sweep of the Mets in New York was huge for the Braves, but they haven’t been playing that well over the last month. The Phils, on the other hand, have been on fire over the last month. The Braves have not been a good road team this season and the Phillies have been very tough to beat at home. The Phillies have also been very, very good in close games, and these games are probably going to be close (assuming the Braves pitch well, otherwise they’ll probably get blown out).

The Phillies will have all 3 of their aces pitching in this series, while the Braves will not have their ace going in this series and they will have their weakest starter going. In the opener, the Braves will be facing a lefty, and they have struggled against lefties this season. JJ has not pitched well since the collapse in Denver. Monday’s game is huge because a win for Atlanta would take a lot of pressure off of the Braves and put a little bit of pressure on the Phillies. The Braves will be huge underdogs in the second game, facing perhaps the best pitcher in the game, while they will be going with a rookie lefty who probably shouldn’t be in the Majors right now. The finale is going to be a huge game no-matter what happens in the first two games. It may end up being the biggest game of the year for the Braves if they lose the first 2. However, as good as Hanson has been over the last couple of months, the Braves have had bad luck with him on the mound. The Phillies, on the other hand, have been just about unbeatable with Oswalt on the mound.

I suppose this has to be considered the biggest series of the year so far for the Braves. It certainly looks like the toughest. As much as the Braves want to win this series, the biggest concern in my mind is that they avoid being swept. Yes, the Braves are still very much alive for the NL East title, but the main goal is to make the postseason. Being swept in this series would not only put the division title virtually out of reach, it would also put a major hurt on the Braves chances of winning the Wild Card.