Thursday, September 9, 2010

The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 2 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 9-1; Vs. Spread: 4-5-1)

Overall (Straight up: 33-6; Vs. Spread: 17-21-1; Moneyline Upsets: 0-3)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 9-1; Vs. Spread: 4-5-1)

Overall (Straight up: 33-6; Vs. Spread: 17-21-1; Moneyline Upsets: 0-3)

Week 1 Review: Not too good, huh. Below .500 against the spread and oh-for-three on moneyline upsets.

Week 2 Preview: This week’s games are very intriguing but I had a much harder time making my picks this week. I was indecisive on almost every pick I made against the spread this week. I’m not at all confident.

Saturday

Game 1: Georgia (+3) @ South Carolina
Pick: Georgia pulls off the upset
Comment: I hate this game. Losing this game is devastating. Winning always just feels like a relief that we didn’t lose. And it’s always close. It’s always ugly and really close. Actually last year’s game was unusual. It was still extremely close, but the two teams put up 78 points after they had scored only 67 total points in the 3 previous matchups combined. In the previous 11 meetings the total had never been higher than 38 points. Still, the game was decided by 7 points or less for the 7th time in the last 9 years. Despite the fact that the game usually hangs in the balance on the final play, the Dawgs have managed to win 7 of 8, including 4 straight in Columbia. Thus, I usually have a strange sense of nervous confidence going into the South Carolina game. I’m probably always going to expect the Dawgs to beat South Carolina, just as I will always expect them to beat Georgia Tech, Arkansas, and Ole Miss, no matter how good or bad those teams look. Both teams will be without significant players due to the usual idiotic off the field issues. The Dawgs will have a very inexperienced QB playing his first road game against the always stingy Gamecock defense. And this is a huge game for the South Carolina fans. They will be fired up. Good thing the Dawgs have a very solid offensive line and running game. Plus, Georgia should never lose to South Carolina.

Game 2: South Florida (+15) @ Florida
Pick: South Florida beats the spread
Comment: Hard to know what to make of Florida’s lackluster win over Miami of Ohio at the Swamp last week. All of the fumbled snaps surely had a major impact on Florida’s problems offensively. You have to expect that situation to improve. However, South Florida will be extremely fired up for this one, and they have played well against power opponents on the road.

Game 3: Florida State (+8) @ Oklahoma
Pick: FSU beats the spread
Comment: Oklahoma’s unimpressive win over Utah State in Norman bothered me more than Florida’s unimpressive performance because Oklahoma didn’t have the fumbled snap exchange excuse. Going into the season I would not have thought FSU had much of a chance in this game. FSU’s defense should be improved this year, but great defenses usually have a hard time slowing down Oklahoma, especially at home. However, Florida State’s offense is also explosive, and considering that Utah State put up 24 on Oklahoma and held the Sooners to 31 last week, this game doesn’t seem like as much of a non-threat to Oklahoma as it did a week ago.

Game 4: Iowa State (+13.5) @ Iowa
Pick: Iowa State beats the spread
Comment: I love this game. There is little speed involved. It’s just old school tackle football. And Iowa State rarely goes down easily. Last year Iowa won 35-3, but things were really much closer than that, as ISU turned it over 6 times leading to 28 Hawkeye points. Prior to last year the Cyclones had beaten the spread as an underdog 5 years in a row.

Game 5: Michigan (+3.5) @ Notre Dame
Pick: Michigan pulls off the upset
Comment: This is one of the more intriguing games of the weekend in my opinion. One fan base will get to be overly optimistic for at least another week. The other fan base will again be brought back into reality. ND’s era of mediocrity has been proclaimed to be over several times during the last 20 years, but such claims have always proven to be premature. This is a trend that I would love to see continue this weekend.

Game 6: Miami (+9) @ Ohio State
Pick: Ohio State covers
Comment: This spread seemed a bit large at first, but then I started thinking about it. I think Miami is pretty good, but I consider Ohio State to be one of the best teams in the country. This game is in Columbus. A 10 point win for the Buckeyes would make perfect sense.

Game 7: BYU (-1) @ Air Force
Pick: BYU covers
Comment: A very interesting spread. Clearly odds makers think BYU is down this season. The Cougars have won 6 straight in this series, with each win coming by at least 14 points. They’ve won 3 straight at Colorado Springs. Air Force has been the 4th best team in the Mountain West ever since Troy Calhoun took over in 2007, but the Falcons have gone just 2-7 against Utah, TCU, and BYU during Calhoun’s 3 seasons.

Game 8: Penn State (+11.5) @ Alabama
Pick: Alabama covers
Comment: This spread also seemed much too big at first. But again, once I thought about it I realized that the line was probably just where it should be. I expect Penn State to be a good team this year, but I think Bama is the best team in the country. Bama has an experienced QB and is playing at home. Penn State has a very inexperienced QB who is about to experience the SEC. Plus, while the Nittany Lions have put together some very good seasons over the last few years, they really haven’t won many “big games.” They are 3-9 vs. top 10 opponents since 2001. Oh yeah, and their head coach is an octogenarian.

Game 9: Oregon (-12) @ Tennessee
Pick: Oregon covers
Comment: Stunning. I know the UT program is not what it was a decade ago, but I would be curious to know how many times the Vols have been double digit underdogs at home. I’m almost certain it hasn’t occurred since I’ve been around. The Ducks steamrolled New Mexico last week, but we all know that eye popping scores against weak opponents can be misleading (see Tennessee winning 63-7 over Western Kentucky in week 1 last season and then losing to UCLA at home the following week). It’s a long trip from Eugene to Knoxville, and there will be a lot of orange people at the game on Saturday. And while the Tennessee program has clearly fallen hard, you can be certain that Oregon will be facing an eminently more talented team this weekend than the absolute joke of an FBS team they faced at home last week.

Game 10: Stanford (-6) @ UCLA
Pick: UCLA beats the spread
Comment: Yeah this game isn’t that interesting but there weren’t many other decent matchups left. Stanford is still figuring out how to win on the road, and the Bruins have been much more capable at home in recent years. Stanford’s win over UCLA last season snapped a 5 game losing streak in this series, and the Bruins have won the last 6 over Stanford at home.

Other Games

Thursday

Central Michigan (+7.5) @ Temple (Temple covers)
Auburn (-1.5) @ Mississippi State (Auburn covers)

Friday

West Virginia (-13.5) @ Marshall (West Virginia covers)
UTEP (+19.5) @ Houston (UTEP beats the spread)

Saturday

Memphis (+12.5) @ East Carolina (East Carolina covers)
Duke (+4.5) @ Wake Forest (Duke pulls off the upset)
San Jose State (+37.5) @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin covers)
Michigan State (-28) vs. Florida Atlantic (Detroit) (FAU beats the spread)
Georgia Tech (-13.5) @ Kansas (Kansas beats the spread)
Hawaii (+2.5) @ Army (Army covers)
Idaho (+28.5) @ Nebraska (Idaho beats the spread)
Eastern Michigan (+16.5) @ Miami (Ohio) (Eastern Mich beats the spread)
Arkansas State (+2) @ Louisiana Lafayette (Ark State pulls off the upset)
Colorado (+8.5) @ Cal (Cal covers)
Kent State (+17.5) @ Boston College (BC covers)
UNLV (+23.5) @ Utah (Utah covers)
Bowling Green (+16.5) @ Tulsa (Bowling Green beats the spread)
Louisiana Tech (+19.5) @ Texas A&M (A&M covers)
Rice (+2.5) @ North Texas (Rice beats the spread)
Wyoming (+29.5) @ Texas (Texas covers)
Arkansas (-34) vs. Louisiana Monroe (Little Rock) (ULM beats the spread)
Toledo (+7) @ Ohio (Toledo beats the spread)
Troy (+13.5) @ Oklahoma State (Troy beats the spread)
LSU (-10) @ Vanderbilt (LSU covers)
Buffalo (+17) @ Baylor (Baylor covers)
Syracuse (+14) @ Washington (Washington covers)
NC State (+3) @ Central Florida (UCF covers)
Western Kentucky (+24.5) @ Kentucky (Kentucky covers)
Rutgers (-19) @ Florida International (FIU beats the spread)
UAB (+11.5) @ SMU (SMU covers)
San Diego State (-13) @ New Mexico State (NMS beats the spread)
Texas Tech (-24) @ New Mexico (Texas Tech covers)
Mississippi (-20.5) @ Tulane (Miss covers)
Virginia (+19.5) @ USC (USC covers)
Colorado State (+23.5) @ Nevada (Nevada covers)

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