The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 4 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 7-3; Vs. Spread: 6-3-1)

Overall (Straight up: 42-11; Vs. Spread: 29-23-1; Moneyline Upsets: 1-1)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 24-6; Vs. Spread: 14-14-2)

Overall (Straight up: 112-26; Vs. Spread: 72-63-2; Moneyline Upsets: 2-7)

Week 3 Review: Wow. I’m stunned by how well this has gone so far. Moneyline upsets haven’t been too strong, but I’m off to a pretty good start against the spread. It won’t last.

Week 4 Preview: This is a strange week. A lot of the key games concern 2nd tier teams from non-BCS conferences vs. 3rd tier teams from BCS conferences or against other 2nd tier teams from non-BCS conferences. This could be trouble for me.

Friday

Game 1: TCU (-17.5) @ SMU

Pick: SMU beats the spread

Comment: This is a very tough spread. I think TCU is one of the best teams in the country and they usually do a great job of making the final score look impressive. But I’m inclined to think the Mustangs will put up a fight, especially at home. I may be overrating SMU, however.

Saturday

Game 2: Stanford (-3.5) @ Notre Dame

Pick: Notre Dame beats the spread

Comment: I truly hope Stanford can get it done at South Bend this weekend because ND’s hopes for a better than decent season will be dashed for another year. Stanford crushed UCLA on the road earlier this season but now they’ll be making a longer road trip. You can pretty much count on this game being close.

Game 3: Alabama (-7) @ Arkansas

Pick: Alabama covers

Comment: I think the Hogs are a good team, but I’m not sure their defense is going to be up to the task of slowing down Bama’s offense. Arkansas’ offense hasn’t been quite as potent as I expected so far, and they will be going up against one of the better defenses on Saturday. The crowd will surely be hyped, but an experienced QB and the nation’s best rushing attack should quiet the home fans before the end of the game.

Game 4: Nevada (-3) @ BYU

Pick: BYU beats the spread

Comment: I’m really torn on this one. I think Nevada has taken another step this season but they are still a very sketchy pick on the road, especially against decent competition. BYU is 2 or 3 levels below what they normally are, but they are still a tough team to beat at home. The Cougars have been blown out by Air Force and FSU, but they still managed to beat Washington at home back in week 1. Nevada is 3-0 with a blowout win over Cal, but all of that came at home.


Game 5: Fresno State (+2.5) @ Mississippi

Pick: Fresno State pulls off the upset

Comment: I did not think Mississippi would be very good this season, but I thought there was a chance that my prediction of a 6-6 record might end up being way off because the Traitors had a number of winnable games. They had home games against an FCS team, Vandy, Kentucky, Fresno State, ULL, and Mississippi State; plus road games against Tulane and Tennessee. At the very least, Traitor fans had to expect their team would be 3-0 at this point. Instead they are1-2, and if they lose to Fresno State this week they are going to have a hard time getting bowl eligible, as they don’t figure to beat Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, or Auburn.

I’m not exactly sure why Old Shame is even favored in this contest. I mean they might win, as they should have more talent than a WAC team, and the Bulldogs will be traveling a long way from home. But like, you know, Jacksonville State and Vandy have already won at Oxford this season. Vandy actually won by 2 TD’s there just last week. Why should the Traitors be favored over anybody at this point? In particular, why should they be favored over a team that has already won on the road this season, has already beaten a team from a BCS conference this season, and has a lot of experience with playing against the big boys and playing against them on the road?

Game 6: South Carolina (+2.5) @ Auburn

Pick: South Carolina beats the spread

Comment: Yeah, I’m hedging here.

Game 7: Oregon State (+16.5) @ Boise State

Pick: Boise State covers

Comment: Oregon State kept things fairly close against TCU on a neutral field, but last week they were coming off of a bye and they only beat Louisville at home by 7. I’m not sure they will be able to slow down Boise State on the blue turf.

Game 8: West Virginia (+6.5) @ LSU

Pick: LSU covers

Comment: Since their National Championship season of 2007, LSU has fallen off, losing a combined 8 conference games over the previous 2 seasons, and opening this year with another sloppy win over an undermanned UNC team. Some fans feel that LSU is steadily eroding under the leadership of Les Miles. I must admit that I have gotten the feeling at times that LSU is a bit like a mighty empire which has been gutted, but which is still somehow able to carry on for a while longer out of habit and out of reputation.

I don’t know whether this is truth or not. However, I have become convinced that West Virginia is a corpse which hasn’t yet realized that it’s dead. The fact that the Mountaineers don’t really play a conference schedule has helped them stay in the national picture. That, along with reputation, some luck, and some force of habit has made it appear that West Virginia survived the exit of Rich Rodriguez and is decent shape under Bill Stewart. I disagree. It may not happen this year, but I believe that sometime soon West Virginia is going to swoon, and I don’t think they will be able to get up for a while.

Game 9: California (+6.5) @ Arizona

Pick: Arizona covers

Comment: Arizona got a major win last week, knocking off a very tough Iowa team by 7 points. The Wildcats will have to get up for another big game this week, as they open up conference play. Arizona is tough to beat at home and the Bears just got smoked on the road by Nevada.

Game 10: Oregon (-10.5) @ Arizona State

Pick: Oregon covers

Comment: As stunned as I was by ASU’s performance at Wisconsin last Saturday, I still think Oregon should be able to go on the road and beat the Sun Devils by at least 2 TD’s. The Ducks have won 5 straight over ASU, beating the spread each time, and winning each game by at least 12 points. ASU is just 9-7 at home since the start of the 2008 season (and 6 of those wins have come against NAU (twice), Washington State, Idaho State, ULM, and Portland State).

Other Games

Thursday

Miami (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh (Pitt beats the spread)

Saturday

Buffalo (+17.5) @ Connecticut (UConn covers)
Central Michigan (+9) @ Northwestern (CM beats the spread)
Virginia Tech (-4) @ Boston College (BC beats the spread)
Florida International (+10) @ Maryland (FIU beats the spread)
Bowling Green (+23) @ Michigan (Michigan covers)
NC State (+9) @ Georgia Tech (NC State pulls off the upset)
Ball State (+28) @ Iowa (BSU beats the spread)
Toledo (+13) @ Purdue (Purdue covers)
UAB (+13.5) @ Tennessee (Tennessee covers)
Central Florida (+5.5) @ Kansas State (KSU covers)
Air Force (-11) @ Wyoming (Air Force covers)
Miami (OH) (+18.5) @ Missouri (Miami (OH) beats the spread)
Army (+6.5) @ Duke (Army beats the spread)
USC (-24) @ Washington State (USC covers)
Tulane (+20.5) @ Houston (Tulane beats the spread)
North Carolina (Pick) @ Rutgers (Rutgers covers)
Eastern Michigan (+42.5) @ Ohio State (Ohio State covers)
Temple (+17) @ Penn State (Temple beats the spread)
UCLA (+16) @ Texas (Texas covers)
Wake Forest (+17.5) @ Florida State (WF beats the spread)
Arkansas State (+11.5) @ Troy (Troy covers)
Idaho (-7.5) @ Colorado State (CSU beats the spread)
Oklahoma (-17) @ Cincinnati (Oklahoma covers)
North Texas (+6.5) @ Florida Atlantic (FAU covers)
Akron (+21.5) @ Indiana (Indiana covers)
New Mexico State (+21.5) @ Kansas (Kansas covers)
Southern Miss (-5.5) @ Louisiana Tech (LT beats the spread)
Ohio (+5.5) @ Marshall (Ohio beats the spread)
Middle Tennessee State (-2) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL pulls off the upset)
Georgia (+2) @ Mississippi State (UGA pulls off the upset)
Kentucky (+14) @ Florida (Florida covers)
Western Kentucky (+26.5) @ South Florida (USF covers)
San Jose State (+33) @ Utah (Utah covers)
Utah State (+8) @ San Diego State (Utah State beats the spread)
Baylor (-7) @ Rice (Baylor covers)
Northern Illinois (+4) @ Minnesota (NIU pulls off the upset)
Memphis (+9.5) @ UTEP (UTEP covers)
New Mexico (+7.5) @ UNLV (UNLV covers)