Tuesday, September 28, 2010

The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 5 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 9-1; Vs. Spread: 2-8)

Overall (Straight up: 40-9; Vs. Spread: 20-29; Moneyline Upsets: 2-3)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 33-7; Vs. Spread: 16-22-2)

Overall (Straight up: 152-35; Vs. Spread: 92-92-2; Moneyline Upsets: 4-10)

Week 4 Review: Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

Week 5 Preview: One of the biggest weekends of the college football season. The conference schedule will be in full effect this week. There are a lot of tough games to pick. I can’t believe I’m right back to .500 ATS. I just hope the roof doesn’t cave in this week.

Thursday

Game 1: Texas A&M (+3) @ Oklahoma State

Pick: Oklahoma State covers

Comment: Yeah, I know, this game doesn’t really move me either, but the fact is that neither team has lost to this point, and it’s a standalone game on Thursday night. I have no idea who will win. I’m taking Okie State because they are at home, although I didn’t think the Red Heads were going to be very good this season. Neither team has played on the road yet. Both teams are coming off of 12 days of rest. Okie State has won the last 2 years but A&M has never lost 3 straight to the Cowboys.

Saturday

Game 2: Miami (-3) @ Clemson

Pick: Clemson pulls off the upset

Comment: Tough one to call in my opinion. The Canes are coming off a thrashing of Pitt on the road last Thursday, while Clemson will have had 2 weeks to sit and fume over their tough overtime loss at Auburn back in week 3. Last season the Tigers stunned the Canes in Miami in an overtime thriller. I had Clemson winning this game going into the season so I’m going to stick with the Tigers.

Game 3: Virginia Tech (-4) @ NC State

Pick: NC State beats the spread

Comment: Another tough ACC battle to call. I had NC State beating the Jackets last week, but that had as much to do with wishful thinking as any kind of foresight on my part. Clearly Virginia Tech has underwhelmed this season, but they’ve now won back to back games in convincing fashion, including a shutout of BC on the road last week. The Wolfpack has won 3 straight over BCS teams, but I’m not sure they can pull off a 4th in a row. VT creamed NC State at home last year, 38-10, but prior to that the last 7 games in this series had been decided by 7 points or less.

Game 4: Texas (+3.5) vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)

Pick: Oklahoma covers

Comment: Is it just me or does this game rarely look as big in October as it does every year in August? This will be the 5th time in the last 6 seasons that at least one of these teams will play the game with a loss already on their record. Oklahoma hasn’t quite lived up to my expectations so far this season, but after what Texas did last Saturday I simply cannot pick them to stay within a field goal of the Sooners.

Game 5: Wisconsin (-2) @ Michigan State

Pick: Michigan State pulls off the upset

Comment: This is basically a tossup, right? I don’t have much insight into this one. Mark Dantonio will be coaching this game from the booth, less than 2 weeks removed from suffering a heart attack (which was no doubt an after effect of the Spartans letting the play clock hit 00 before snapping the ball on their game winning fake field goal against Notre Dame in overtime). I thought Wisconsin was being overlooked going into the year, but they haven’t been that impressive so far (except for last week when they violated the poor kids from Austin Peay). The Badgers have won 9 of the last 13 in this series, but the home team has won 5 straight.

Game 6: Florida (+9) @ Alabama

Pick: Florida beats the spread

Comment: Okay, I’m thoroughly convinced that Bama is the best team in the country, but 9 points? I realize that Timmy Circumcision is no longer around, but the Gators have still won all 4 of their games this year by at least 14 points. Plus, the Tide had to survive a serious storm at Arkansas last Saturday, and they will now have to get up for any even tougher opponent.

Game 7: Notre Dame (-3) @ Boston College

Pick: Boston College pulls off the upset

Comment: I’m just going with history and my own personal wishes here. ND hung on for a 20-16 win at home last year in the Battle of the Child Molesters, but the Eagles had won the last 6 against the Irish prior to that. Notre Dame was shutout in their last trip to Chestnut Hill back in 2008.

Game 8: Washington (+10.5) @ USC

Pick: USC covers

Comment: I’d like to think that the Huskies can make it a game, but they haven’t given me much reason for hope with their performance so far this season. USC is 4-0 but they haven’t played anybody yet. Washington will be coming off of a bye, but it seems like the Trojans are still capable of pounding undermanned teams. And perhaps they will get through this season without suffering any inexplicable losses now that the pressure is off of them.

Game 9: Stanford (+7) @ Oregon

Pick: Stanford beats the spread

Comment: This pick is based solely on my growing respect for Jim Harbaugh’s Stanford team. The Ducks have looked unstoppable this season, and they have been unbeatable at home recently. They’ve won 12 straight at home and 12 of their last 13 Pac 10 games overall. However, their only loss in the conference over that time did come last season at Stanford, when they gave up 51 points. Also, after years of being terrified of away games, Stanford has become a threat even on the road. They have won 3 straight on the road going back to last year’s 55-21 win at USC. This season Stanford has shutout UCLA 35-0 on the road and won 37-14 at Notre Dame.

Game 10: Penn State (+7.5) @ Iowa

Pick: Iowa covers

Comment: I’ve seen enough of this year’s Penn State team to know that they are nowhere near as good as they were in 2008 or 2009, and they lost to Iowa in each of those seasons. I’m not saying that the Nittany Lions are a bad team, but they’re closer to mediocre than great. I still believe the Hawkeyes to be closer to great than mediocre. Iowa has won 8 of 10 over PSU and they haven’t lost to the Nittany Lions at home since 1999.

Other Games

Friday

BYU (-6) @ Utah State (BYU covers)

Saturday

Louisiana-Monroe (+35) @ Auburn (ULM beats the spread)
Vanderbilt (+7.5) @ Connecticut (Vandy beats the spread)
Northwestern (-5) @ Minnesota (NW covers)
Kansas (+8) @ Baylor (Kansas beats the spread)
Ohio State (-18) @ Illinois (Ohio State covers)
Florida State (-7) @ Virginia (FSU covers)
Ohio (-9.5) @ Eastern Michigan (Ohio covers)
Temple (-4.5) @ Army (Army beats the spread)
Kentucky (+2.5) @ Mississippi (Kentucky pulls off the upset)
Kent State (-3) @ Miami (Ohio) (Miami (Ohio) beats the spread)
Idaho (-2.5) @ Western Michigan (WM beats the spread)
Tulane (+15) @ Rutgers (Rutgers covers)
TCU (-33) @ Colorado State (TCU covers)
Navy (+9.5) @ Air Force (Navy beats the spread)
Tennessee (+16) @ LSU (LSU covers)
Ball State (+16.5) @ Central Michigan (CM covers)
Buffalo (+3.5) @ Bowling Green (BG covers)
East Carolina (+10.5) @ North Carolina (UNC covers)
Michigan (-10.5) @ Indiana (Indiana beats the spread)
Washington State (+27) @ UCLA (UCLA covers)
Florida International (+20) @ Pittsburgh (FIU beats the spread)
Georgia (-4) @ Colorado (Colorado beats the spread)
UTEP (-14.5) @ New Mexico (UTEP covers)
Northern Illinois (-13.5) @ Akron (NIU covers)
Duke (+7.5) @ Maryland (Maryland covers)
Arizona State (+3.5) @ Oregon State (ASU beats the spread)
SMU (-12) @ Rice (SMU covers)
Louisville (-6) @ Arkansas State (Arkansas State beats the spread)
Texas Tech (-7.5) @ Iowa State (Texas Tech covers)
Georgia Tech (-9.5) @ Wake Forest (WF beats the spread)
Tulsa (-10.5) @ Memphis (Tulsa covers)
Wyoming (+3) @ Toledo (Toledo covers)
Florida Atlantic (+21) @ South Florida (FAU beats the spread)
Louisiana-Lafayette (+4.5) @ North Texas (ULL beats the spread)
Boise State (-41.5) @ New Mexico State (Boise State covers)
Marshall (+10) @ Southern Miss (Marshall beats the spread)
Nevada (-20.5) @ UNLV (Nevada covers)
Louisiana Tech (+8.5) @ Hawaii (Hawaii covers)

No comments: