The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 3 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (4-12); Straight Up: (8-8)

Season: Vs. Spread (10-21-1); Straight Up: (17-15)

Week 2 Review: Horrible. Dreadful. Absolutely awful. That’s what I get for rushing my picks. I’ve already completely destroyed my chances for a decent year against the spread.

Week 3 Preview: A fascinating slate of games this week. I doubt I’ll be able to pick many of the games correctly, but I’m very curious to see the outcomes. In light of my horrific start to the season, I’m hedging in several of this week’s games. Maybe week 3 is like this every season but it seems like almost every matchup coming up this week sets up to be a major swing game.

Sunday’s Early Games

San Francisco (-3) @ Kansas City
Pick: Niners win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: When the Niners lost on a last second field goal to the Saints on Monday night I really looked at it as if it was just about the most positive devastating loss a team could ever have. Sure they were a play or two away from a huge victory, only to lose at the buzzer to fall to 0-2 on the year, but they had basically erased the stains of their horrid week 1 performance against Seattle. They had gone toe to toe with the defending champs on MNF, and considering the competition in the NFC West, it wasn’t like being 0-2 was a death sentenced. But I have to say, the Niners are facing a tough game this Sunday on a short week. San Fran lost their first road game of the season badly, while the Chiefs pulled off a win over the Chargers at home in week 1, signaling that Arrowhead was once again a place to be reckoned with.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Carolina
Pick: Bengals cover
Comment: A peculiar spread, don’t you think? The Panthers have looked worse than any team in the NFL so far. Meanwhile the Bengals are coming off of a win over the Ravens. The Panthers, it must be said, have been very good at home over the last few years, but they just fell to the Buccaneers at home last week by 13 points. The Bengals lost their first game on the road this season, falling to 11-22 away from home since the start of the 2006 season.

Cleveland (+10.5) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: This figures to be one of the least competitive games of the weekend, as the Old Browns battle the new Browns in the city where the Baltimore Colts helped make pro football king in America. Did that make sense? No? Well, Bob Irsay was this money grubbing, black hearted drunk, you see, and he owned the Baltimore Colts. This detestable coward wanted to move his team out west for some selfish reason or another, but his pathetic drunken behavior led to his plans being waylaid. For spite, the coward then moved his team in the middle of the night to Indianapolis, leaving the great Baltimore fans that had made him so much money to wake up the following morning and discover that they no longer had a football team.

A little over a decade later, another greedy and heartless little man would force a similar fate on another loyal fan base. When Art Model couldn’t blackmail the city of Cleveland into funding a new stadium, he ripped the Browns away from the city. He ended up bringing the club to Baltimore and renaming the team the Ravens. Thus, the great Baltimore Colts marching band, who had fought for so many years to get a team back to the city, was unable to fully enjoy the day that their goal was finally achieved, as they could not ignore the fact that in order to achieve the goal they had been forced to do unto the Cleveland fans as Indianapolis had done unto them. Mercifully, Commissioner Paul Tagliabue had forced Model to leave the Browns’ name, colors, and records in Cleveland. Thus, while Ozzie Newsome remained in the front office working for the cold hearted Model, his retired jersey number did not accompany him to Baltimore.

The Browns were reborn in Cleveland a few years later, but as an expansion team (though retaining the records of the former franchise, as if they had simply ceased to play for a few years). Needless to say they have not had the same success entering the NFL this time as they did back in 1950 when they left the All American Football Conference and won the world championship in their first season in the NFL.

Detroit (+10.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: No one should be panicking yet in Minnesota about the Vikings slow start to the season. But should they lose this game it will be most appropriate to panic.

Tennessee (+3) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants win but Titans beat the spread
Comment: This is a battle of teams who both started the 2008 season 11-1 before losing in the divisional playoffs, and then missing the postseason altogether last year. Each team won convincingly in week 1, but got smacked down in week 2. It will be interesting to see how Vince Young responds this week after he was pulled from last Sunday’s game against Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh (-1) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: Another interesting spread. I know the Bucs are 2-0, and I realize that Hines Ward may be playing quarterback for the Steelers before this game is over, but I would think that Pittsburgh would be at least a 3 point favorite based on their dominant defense alone. They held Atlanta to 9 points in week 1, and the Falcons then put up 41 points in week 2. The Titans scored 38 points in week 1, and the Steelers then held them to 11 points in week 2.

Atlanta (+4) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: Sorry, but I just can’t convince myself that the time has come for the Falcons to take such a major step. It should be a competitive game, as it almost always is between these two franchises which have as close a thing as there is to a pro football rivalry in the southeast. I hated having to root for the Colts to win the Super Bowl last year but I had to do it because I did not want to see the Saints win the big game before my team. We all know how that story ended.

Buffalo (+14) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: It was confirmed again last Sunday that the Patriots are still a very beatable team when matched up against hardnosed teams like the Jets, Ravens, and Steelers. This is a matchup they should be able to handle easily, and they should blow the Bills out.

Dallas (+3) @ Houston
Pick: Texans win but Cowboys beat the spread
Comment: What a matchup this is! Big D going into Houston at 0-2 to face the 2-0 Texans. Dallas needs a win desperately. If the Texans win this one I don’t think there will be any further debate as to whether or not they are “for real.”

Sunday’s Late Games

Washington (-3.5) @ St. Louis
Pick: Skins win but Rams beat the spread
Comment: A tricky little game for the Skins, who are coming off of a demoralizing come from ahead loss to the Texans at home in OT last week. The Rams, while 0-2 on the year, appear to be much better this season, though admittedly they have a long way to go before they can be called mediocre. Still, the Rams lost by 4 to the Cards in week 1 and by just 2 at Oakland last Sunday.

Recall also that the Lambs have been quite a pain in the balls of the Washington Redskins in recent seasons. Back in 2008, the Skins were 4-1 when they faced the lowly Rams at home in week 6. Washington had just beaten in succession the Cardinals, the Saints, the Cowboys on the road, and the Eagles on the road. The Rams, coming off of a 3-13 season, were 0-4 and had lost all 4 games by at least 17 points. In fact, they had lost 8 consecutive games going back to the season before, losing all 8 games by at least 9 points, and losing 7 of those 8 by at least 17 points. Washington was a 13 point favorite at home, yet they somehow found a way to lose 17-9. It was the beginning of the end for Jim Zorn. The Skins went just 4-6 the rest of the way to finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs. St. Louis would win only 1 more game the rest of the season. Last year the Rams visited the Skins in week 2. This time the Skins were 9 point favorites but they had to eke out an ugly 9-7 win. This Sunday the game will be at St. Louis and we will see if the Rams continue to torment the Skins.

Philadelphia (-3) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: In a somewhat surprising reversal, Andy Reid has decided to start Michael Vick against the Jaguars this Sunday. Even more surprising in a way, Reid stated outright that the decision had nothing to do with the health of Kolb. While Reid’s decisions may actually be further proof that he is a man of good character, he has again shown to be a less than shrewd tactician. With the maniacal uproar in the media concerning “concussions” currently blazing at a Global Warming and Performance Enhancing Drugs level, Reid certainly had the opportunity to keep the move linked to Kevin Kolb’s head injury sustained back in week 1, regardless of the fact that Kolb has been medically cleared. This is particularly the case due to the reactionary and irrational criticism leveled on the Eagles for their handling of a couple of “concussion” situations in week 1, including that of Kolb. Regrettably, Reid would almost certainly have been praised for “taking the player’s safety into consideration” if he had insinuated that Kolb would not start this week as a precautionary measure.

Reid either refused to play this somewhat cynical game or perhaps he did not even realize that the situation had actually afforded him the perfect opportunity to give Vick a chance to “take the decision away” from him. In the late 80’s, Bill Walsh used somewhat minor injuries to Joe Montana as an opportunity to start Steve Young without causing a major controversy. Montana’s direction of San Fran’s epic game winning drive in Super Bowl XXIII and his spectacular season the following year have made it easy to forget that there were many people who thought Joe was done and that Young should take over as full time starter in the middle of the 1988 season.

Anyway, after trading Donovan McNabb, giving all kinds of money to the unproven Kolb, designating him the unquestioned starter going into training camp, and again affirming that sentiment following last Sunday’s game, it seemed like Reid and the Eagles basically had to let Kolb try and prove himself as the starter. Unless, that is, Vick got a few more games and had continued success. If that happened, Reid would have to let Kolb down because it wouldn’t be the right move to jeopardize the team’s success.

In other words, Kolb’s “concussion” situation had given Reid a chance to give Vick a chance to lead the Eagles to success while at the same time taking the coach off the hook for back tracking on Kolb and allowing his starting spot to be lost due to injury. If Vick had struggled this Sunday or even if he had played well and the Eagles lost, the controversy would have been just about eliminated and Reid would have been able to act as if there had never been any consideration of doing anything but going back to Kolb as the starter. However, this chance has been lost. Reid stated plainly on Tuesday that the decision to start Vick this week had nothing to do with Kolb’s injury and was due only to Vick’s high level of play so far this season.

Thus Reid has stripped Kolb of the starting spot promised to him after the QB had only a few passes in the opener before he was knocked out of the game due to the head injury. This might be tougher for Kolb to take than perhaps it would have been if the decision had been made following more convincingly good play by Vick and another victory. In addition, what happens now if Vick struggles? What happens if he makes a number of positive plays, but as happened often in Atlanta, it doesn’t lead to consistent offensive production and a win? When do you pull the plug and turn back to the quarterback that you just removed from the starting spot? What if Kolb then struggles? It could be, as people apparently used to say, “pretty harry.” On the other hand, Vick may continue to play well and lead the Eagles to a number of successes, and if that happens Reid will be applauded for making the difficult, but right decision.

San Diego (-5.5) @ Seattle
Pick: Chargers win but Seahawks beat the spread
Comment: It’s hard to trust the Chargers early in the season, especially on the road. Over the last 6 seasons, the Chargers have gone (beginning in 2004) 12-4, 9-7, 14-2, 11-5, 8-8, and 13-3, winning the AFC West in 5 of those 6 seasons. Despite this run of consistent success, the Chargers have also been consistently mediocre early in the season. They have lost at least 2 of their first 6 games in each of those 6 seasons, losing 2 of their first 3 games in 4 of those seasons. That’s a fairly significant pattern in my opinion. The Chargers lost their first road game of this season, while the Seahawks blew out the Niners in their first home game of the year.

Indianapolis (-5.5) @ Denver
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: The Colts rebounded from their surprising loss to the Texans in week 1 with a dominating victory over the Giants last Sunday night. But now they must go back on the road. Denver crushed Seattle in their first home game of the season this past Sunday. Not for the first time in recent years the Broncos will be playing a game in memory of a deceased teammate.

Oakland (+4) @ Arizona
Pick: Cards cover
Comment: The Cardinals were absolutely throttled by the Falcons last week, while the Raiders pulled out their first victory of the year. But this game will be in Arizona and the Raiders are not usually a good bet to win on the road.

Sunday Night’s Game

New York Jets (+1) @ Miami
Pick: Jets pull off the upset
Comment: This matchup is always fun and this year’s game has a lot riding on it. A win for the Fins would put them firmly in the driver’s seat in the AFC East and leave the Jets with 2 losses after 3 weeks. If the Jets win, there will most likely be a 3-way tie for 1st place in the division after 3 weeks.

Monday Night’s Game

Green Bay (-3) @ Chicago
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: This is the NFL. The Packers. The Bears. Soldier Field. Both teams coming in without a loss on the season. Now all we need is for a freak cold front to arrive just in time for Monday night’s week 3 capper.