The NFL Blog: Week 13 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (8-7-1); Straight Up (9-7)
Season: Vs. Spread (80-88-8); Straight Up (112-63-1)

Week 12 Review: Last week brought mixed results for me. I’ll take a winning record ATS any day but I only went 9-7 straight up. Of course I would have been a game better in both areas if I had gotten my picks up before the Thursday night game, but hey, if your aunt had balls she’d be your uncle. My worst pick was Denver to cover the 9.5 point spread against Oakland (they somehow lost 31-10) but I would contend that that was the right pick, the Broncos just didn’t show up.

Week 13 Preview: This week I’ve made sure to get my picks up before Thursday night and it’s a good thing because this time it would have cost me 3 games otherwise. I’ve got some very strong feelings about a few games this week and absolutely no idea in some others.

Thursday’s Games

Tennessee (-11) @ Detroit
Pick: Titans cover.
Comment: Last year almost had a 15-0 vs. 0-15 game but the Ravens ruined everything by letting the Dolphins win the week before Miami’s showdown in week 16 with New England. I thought for sure we would have an 11-0 vs. 0-11 matchup on Thanksgiving day this year but the Titans lost their first game last week. Once again, the Lions flirted with their first victory before collapsing to keep the dream of 0-16 alive. For the first time that I can remember, people have begun to question why the Lions always have to be one of the team’s playing on Thanksgiving. It’s always been a tradition to have the Lions play on Thanksgiving and if their fans really care about it and don’t want the tradition to stop then I hope the League never changes it. The rest of us having to sit through some boring game isn’t a big enough deal to warrant taking the tradition away from that poor, suffering fan base if they due indeed feel strongly about it. But I wonder whether the tradition is still something Lions fans wouldn’t know what to do without. I mean, as a lifelong fan of another franchise normally associated with failure, I know that sometimes it almost becomes a burden on a city when a team is as bad as the Lions usually are. How much joy has playing on Thanksgiving really brought the Detroit area in the last 10 years? I don’t know. As for why the League hasn’t bothered ending the tradition, I don’t really know how much better the ratings would be on Thanksgiving day if the Lions were replaced by some other team. I mean, it seems like people that watch football at all are pretty much going to watch football on Thanksgiving day regardless of what teams are involved. The Lions have been more competitive lately but I just can’t pick them to stay within 10 points of the Titans this week right after Tennessee lost for the first time last Sunday, at home, in decisive fashion. The Titans are probably glad that they don’t have to wait until Sunday to get that bad taste out of their mouths. I think Detroit might hang around in the first half because it isn’t the Titans’ nature to score a bunch of points quickly but eventually I think Tennessee will turn it into a rout.

Seattle (+12.5) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys cover.
Comment: I don’t know if this game will be any more competitive than the early game. The Seahawks will have to travel to Texas and the short week’s going to affect them a lot more than the Cowboys. Seattle has lost 4 straight and 7 of 8 and they are 1-4 on the road this year. I will say, however, that the Seahawks have beaten the spread in each of their last 3 road games. But the Cowboys have won 3 of 4 and now that they have Romo back at QB they are again a good team that should turn this one into a blowout.

Arizona (+3) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover.
Comment: This is the only interesting game on Thanksgiving, but it’s at night and on the NFL Network, so unless you’re a big football fan you probably aren’t watching this one anyway. If you’re trying to figure out how good this Cardinals team is, the fact that they are a 3 point underdog in this game should remind you of just who they are. The Eagles are flirting with disaster at this point. I thought that the benching of Donovan McNabb last week was one of the more surprising developments of the entire season. Not that it wasn’t warranted, but Andy Reid has basically backed McNabb for 10 years. To suddenly pull him in that situation was a stunner to me and it seems that both McNabb and Reid could be done in Philly soon. But I still think the only choice was to give McNabb the job back for this week and I think the Eagles will win. Arizona is 3-3 on the road this year but they are 12-42 on the road since 2002. More importantly, you have to look at who the Cards have beaten when they have won on the road. Since 2005, the Cardinals are 8-4 on the road against NFC West teams and 1-17 on the road against everyone else. I think Philly will win and it’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take them to cover.

Sunday’s Early Games

San Francisco (+7) @ Buffalo
Pick: Bills cover.
Comment: The Bills finally won again last week after losing 4 straight but I still think they are way more like a 7-9 or 8-8 team than their 5-1 start suggested. The Niners are normally at their worst on the road and they will have to go across the country for this one. The thing that’s bugging me about this game is the spread. I just don’t feel that good about picking the Bills to win by more than a TD when they’re 2-5 since the start of October. But I’m sure as hell not going with San Fran so Buffalo minus 7 it is.

Baltimore (-7) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Ravens cover.
Comment: The spread is bugging me in this one too. Baltimore can be shaky on the road and whenever the Benglas aren’t awful it’s usually at home. Plus it’s a division game and the Benglas haven’t gotten swept by the Ravens since 2002. They’ve won 4 of 5 over the Ravens in Cinci and they’ll be coming off a few days of extra rest. However, I just don’t know how much fight the Bengals have left in them so I’m going to take the Ravens.

Indianapolis (-4.5) @ Cleveland
Pick: Colts cover.
Comment: The Cleveland Browns franchise just has an amateur feel to it. They are now 1-5 at home this season. The Colts have won 4 straight and I don’t see a let down coming here. I think they’ll win by a touchdown or so.

Carolina (+3) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover.
Comment: The Packers continue to be a hard team to figure. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 4-2 in their last 6 games but they’ve only looked good once over that time. All 3 of Carolina’s losses have come on the road this year. The Packers have dominated in their last 2 home games. I’ll take the Packers to win and it’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just pick them to cover.

Denver (+9) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover.
Comment: How the hell did the Broncos manage to lose 31-10 at home to the Raiders last week? I would be concerned about a bit of a let down for the Jets after winning at New England and at Tennessee in the last 2 weeks but I can’t even consider it because the Broncos just lost by 21 at home to the Raiders.

Miami (-7.5) @ St. Louis
Pick: Dolphins cover.
Comment: This game is currently off the board in Vegas, presumably because the status of Marc Bulger is unknown. But it began at 7.5 so that’s what I’m going with and it doesn’t matter because I would have taken the Dolphins to cover if the spread was 14 regardless of who the QB is for STL. Only the incredible unpredictability of the NFL can explain how the Rams ever won at Washington and over the Cowboys by 20 in successive weeks back in October. In their other 9 games this season they are 0-9 and have been outscored 313-94, losing by an average score of 34.8-10.4. That’s unreal. The Fish should win by way more than 7.5.

New Orleans (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Bucs cover.
Comment: The Bucs are 5-0 at home this season and 4-1 ATS at home (and the only time they lost ATS at home was when Seattle scored a meaningless TD with seconds left to lose by 10 when the Bucs were favored by 11). The Saints are 1-4 on the road this year (the only win was at KC). I like the Bucs in this one by 4 points or so.

New York Giants (-3.5) @ Washington
Pick: Giants cover.
Comment: The Giants are perhaps the greatest road team I’ve ever seen. They’re 9-2 ATS this year and they’ve beaten the spread in their last 6 games. As impressive as the Skins 4 game win streak over the Saints, Cards, Cowboys, and Eagles was, they’ve been equally unimpressive ever since. In their last 6 games, the Redskins are 3-3 with home losses to the Rams, the Steelers, and the Cowboys; a 3 point win at home over the Browns, a 3 point win over the Seahawks on the road, and an 8 point win at Detroit. They are 1-4-1 ATS over that stretch. You gotta go with the Giants here.

Sunday’s Late Games

Atlanta (+5.5) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Falcons beat the spread.
Comment: At the start of the year I thought this was the most unwinnable game on Atlanta’s schedule. Right now I’m not so sure they can’t go to San Diego and beat the Chargers. That’s pretty amazing in my opinion. The Chargers have taken on the personality of their head coach. Norv Turner may be an offensive genius but I don’t know that he’s any sort of leader of men. The Chargers may have a roster of Pro Bowlers but they don’t know how to be great. I’m not ready to say that the Falcons are going to win this thing but 5.5 is too big of a spread.

Pittsburgh (+1) @ New England
Pick: Steelers pull off the upset.
Comment: This is a tough. The Patriots have done incredibly well considering that they lost the best player in the game for the season in the 1st quarter of week 1. They’ve won most of their games against lesser opponents but Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the League. The Steelers are 4-1 on the road this year and I just have a hunch that they’re going to win in Foxboro this Sunday.

Kansas City (+3) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders win but Chiefs beat the spread.
Comment: I’m sorry, I just have no clue here, and I’ve got to hedge. Kansas City is 1-10, they’ve lost 7 in a row, they’re 0-5 on the road this year, and they lost by 15 to the Raiders at home in week 2. Oakland just won by 21 in Denver. However, this is the Raiders we’re talking about, and isn’t it always 1 step forward, 3 steps back with them? I’ll pick Oakland to win but I think it might be 10-9 on a missed extra point by KC.

Sunday Night’s Game

Chicago (+3.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings win but Bears beat the spread.
Comment: I’m not really big on any of the contending NFC North teams. The Bears might be a better team overall than Minnesota but the Vikings are tough at home and they’re 4-1 at the Metrodome this year. I’ll pick the Vikings to win by a field goal.

Monday Night’s Game

Jacksonville (+3) @ Houston
Pick: Texans cover.
Comment: I’m through with Jacksonville. They’re easily the most disappointing team in the NFL this year, more than the Browns and more than even the Chargers. They’ve lost 4 of 5 and their only win over that stretch was against Detroit. The Texans snapped their 3 game losing skid last week and they’ve won 11 of their last 15 games at home.