The College Football Blog: Power Rankings (After Week 10)

Power Rankings After Week 10

1. Florida 7-1 (6th)
2. Texas 8-1 (1st)
3. Penn State 9-0 (2nd)
4. Alabama 9-0 (3rd)
5. USC 7-1 (5th)
6. Texas Tech 9-0 (9th)
7. Oklahoma 8-1 (4th)
8. Oklahoma State 8-1 (8th)
9. Georgia 7-2 (7th)
10. Ohio State 7-2 (10th)
11. Missouri 7-2 (11th)
12. LSU 6-2 (12th)

-Previous week’s ranking in parenthesis;

Out: None;
Next Three In: TCU, Utah, Boise State.

Explanation: No team fell out of my rankings this week but there were some major changes. Obviously my rankings are very different from the ones being produced by the media, the coaches, and others. Surely my list would spark objections and probably outrage from many across the nation if I were some pundit on TV, Radio, or ESPN.com. There are a few obvious questions that would demand answers: How can two teams with losses be on top of the undefeated teams? How is Texas ranked 2nd and Texas Tech ranked 6th after Tech beat Texas last week? How does Oklahoma drop 3 places following a blowout win? How can Georgia and Missouri and Ohio State and LSU still be in the top 12 but not any of the undefeated or 1-loss teams from the Mountain West and the WAC? These are all reasonable questions and it would be harder to defend my stance in that other instance because people would refuse to listen. But thankfully this is just a blog that nobody reads and so it will not be as hard to explain myself to you readers (or reader).

First, I need to once again remind everyone that my power rankings are based on a very simple and consistent formula: I rank the teams based on who I think would win a head to head matchup on a neutral field at this moment. I’m not basing it on which team I think deserves to be ranked higher or which team has had a better season. It’s just which team I think would win a week from now if two teams went at it on a fair, neutral field.

Now to get to this week’s rankings. Certainly Florida’s presence atop my rankings will raise anyone’s eyebrow. Because I am a Bulldawg you may suspect that this is just a knee jerk reaction to Florida’s stunning 49-10 thrashing of Georgia last week. You might suspect that I’m thinking any team that can do that to my team, the great Georgia Bulldawgs, must clearly be the greatest team in the land. However, I can assure you that this is not the case. You may recall that the Gators were ranked #1 in my preseason power rankings and they were #1 in my rankings after week 1. They fell out of the top spot after that but remained in my top 5 until their loss to Ole Miss in week 5. They fell to 9th in my rankings after that and they’ve been hovering just outside my top 5 ever since. During that time, while the Big XII battles have garnered most of the attention, the Gators have gone 4-0 against SEC competition, outscoring opponents by a combined score of 201-43, winning by an average score of 50.25-10.75. In fact, in Florida’s 7 wins this year, all against FBS opponents, they have outscored the competition 313-62, winning each game by at least 23 points. Their slip up against a decent Ole Miss team at home, a 31-30 loss in week 5, has been derided by the national media, and it is certainly a worse loss than Texas, Oklahoma, USC, or Oklahoma State has had. But that’s not what my rankings are concerned with. My rankings are about who the toughest team to beat is right now and that team is Florida. I’m not just trying to say that I was right all along, but over the past month the Gators have been the team that I thought they would be this year so I don’t doubt the validity of their recent play. Right now I would take Florida against any team in the country on a neutral field. You might wonder why I moved them up 5 spots from 6th to 1st in just 1 week. This is a valid question because it is strange but my answer would be a 2-parter: 1: I have a better feel for what my beliefs are about the other top teams in the country after the many big games of the past month (Tex-Okla; Tex-Okla State; Missouri-Okla State; Tex-Texas Tech; Penn State-Ohio State; UGA-LSU; etc.); 2: Florida’s performance against Georgia backed up their big wins over Arkansas, LSU, and Kentucky, and left no doubt that they had reached the scary potential that I feared they would achieve way back in August.

Once you get past Florida’s spot at #1, the next eyebrow raiser would obviously be Texas dropping just 1 spot from 1st to 2nd. But again, I don’t play the game where you lose and go to the back of the line and then move up steadily as the teams in front of you lose. While I thought the Longhorns had a decent chance to run the table I wasn’t overly shocked that they finally lost after playing weekly title bouts for a month. From October 11th to November 1st the Longhorns beat Oklahoma (8-1) on a neutral field by 10; blew out Missouri (7-2) by 25 at home; beat Oklahoma State (8-1) by 4 at home; and lost by 6 points on a last second touchdown pass to Texas Tech (9-0) on the road. By comparison, during that same time, Alabama has beaten Ole Miss (5-4) by 4 at home; beaten Tennessee (3-6) by 20 on the road; and beaten Arkansas State (4-4) by 35 at home. During those 4 weeks, Texas looked like a better team than Alabama and right now (despite the injury questions to key players on both sides of the ball) I would take the Longhorns against every team in the country other than Florida. They barley lost to Texas Tech on the road and I think they win easily at home and I think they win at a neutral site too.

Moving on, there would be eyebrows raised at 9-0 PSU moving down a spot from 2nd to 3rd despite being idle and Alabama moving down a spot from 3rd to 4th despite moving to 9-0 with an easy win over a non-conference opponent. But again, I moved Florida above every team ahead of them and I saw no reason to drop Texas down below PSU and Bama simply because they lost their first game on the road in the final seconds to a better team than either of those teams have played this season. I kept USC at 5th as they continued to hold serve as best they can, dominating their weak conference opponents. Since their slip up against Oregon State, USC has been brilliant and outside of that loss they have been nearly flawless.

Now comes one of the harder questions for me to explain: if Texas Tech is undefeated and just beat the team I have ranked #2, why aren’t they ahead of the other two undefeated teams or at least 7-1 USC? This is a valid point, but again, it’s not just record or what you have done lately or what you have done overall; it’s which team I think would win a head to head matchup on a neutral field. Texas Tech did not surprise anyone paying attention this year. They were 15th in my preseason power rankings but I’ve been hesitant to move them up quickly despite their perfect record because of their history and their schedule. Coming into this season they had been successful for the last 8 years under Mike Leach but they had never finished the season with less than 3 losses. They had mainly been known as a high powered offensive team that tried to outscore everybody but couldn’t stop anybody. Before this season some said this would be Leach’s best team yet, not just because of senior QB Graham Harrell, sensational WR Michael Crabtree, or the nation’s largest offensive line, but also because the defense was expected to be much improved. However, it took a while to know whether this Tech team was any different because they didn’t play anyone during the first 5 weeks of the season (vs. East Washington; at Nevada; vs. SMU; vs. Massachusetts). After that they blew out KSU on the road but then nearly lost to Nebraska at home before pulling out a 37-31 win in OT. They pulled away from Texas A&M the next week and then blew away Kansas the week after that to give them 3 blowouts in conference road games over 4 weeks. Then last week they won at home over a Texas team that had gone through an unheard of gauntlet over the previous 3 weeks. And let’s not kid ourselves, folks, regardless of the fact that Texas Tech was in control for most of the night, the Raiders still had to rely on luck and on Texas’ inability to seal the deal in order to avoid losing. Texas had the game won and Tech’s perfect season was over but true freshman Blake Gideon—rated 20th out of the Longhorns’ 20-man recruiting class of 2008—happened to be the guy in position to catch that tipped, softly floating ball, and he dropped it. I mean, most of the time when a defensive player “drops” an interception it’s actually a very tough play, but this was one of the easier interception chances you will ever see. If he catches the ball it’s 100% over but he didn’t. Texas Tech then scored on the next play and won the game. So should I move the Red Raiders ahead of all of those other teams just because Gideon dropped the ball? They’ve won all their games so far and they definitely impressed the hell out of me with their performance against Texas last Saturday, and that’s why I moved them up 3 spots from 9th to 6th. But I want to see them do it again.

Oklahoma got disrespected more than anyone in my rankings this week, falling 3 spots from 4th to 7th despite moving to 8-1 with a blowout win over Nebraska. First of all, I moved Florida over every team in front of them so that knocked Oklahoma back a spot. Okay, but why did I move them behind USC, who lost to Oregon State, while Oklahoma lost to Texas? This was due to my feelings that right now USC would handle Oklahoma in a head to head meeting because USC’s defense would be the strongest unit on the field and Oklahoma’s defense would be the weakest. Over the past 4 games, Oklahoma has allowed point totals of 45, 31, 35, and 28. In their 7 wins this season, USC has allowed 30 points total. Even in their 1 loss they only allowed 27 points. At the same time, USC has scored at least 35 points in 5 games. So I just have to think that USC would beat Oklahoma at this point. I was conflicted on whether to drop Oklahoma behind Texas Tech. They have played similar schedules, with Texas Tech having 1 less loss than the Sooners, and beating Texas, the only team to beat Oklahoma. Their win was at home, while Oklahoma lost on a neutral site. I’m just not sure Oklahoma would be able to stop Texas Tech at all. I think Oklahoma would beat them in Norman but on a neutral field I’d give the slight edge to Tech. I kept Ok State at 8th following their 59-17 domination of Iowa State. I think the Cowboys, Red Raiders, and Sooners are all very near even with each other.

I dropped Georgia 2 spots from 7th to 9th after their disappointing performance against Florida. Some might say that the Dawgs should have dropped farther but I’m not just going to drop a team 10 spots just because they got demolished and didn’t end up being as good as many expected. I thought about moving idle Ohio State up a spot but I ended up keeping them 10th because I don’t think they would be able to beat Georgia on both sides of the ball the way that Bama and Florida were able to. I think UGA would beat the Buckeyes on a neutral field. So the last 3 spots in my top 12 stayed the same. Missouri I kept at #11 despite their unimpressive win at Baylor. I kept LSU at #12 following their non-descript win over Tulane at home. As for the non-BCS conference teams, TCU, Utah, and Boise State were again my next 3 teams in, although I have TCU a little ahead of Utah now. Again, even though these teams have better records than some of the BCS teams in my top 12 and even though they have some decent wins, I’m still not going to favor any of them over any of the teams in my top 12 in a head to head matchup on a neutral field.