Friday, November 21, 2008

The NFL Blog: Week 12 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (6-10); Straight Up (10-5-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (72-81-7); Straight Up (103-56-1)

Week 11 Review: I had another sub-par week ATS last week after having one of my best weeks ATS in week 10. My worst pick was Chicago to beat the 3.5 point spread in Green Bay (they lost 37-3). Of course I would have avoided a 10 loss week if the officials had gotten an obvious call right at the end of the Pittsburgh-San Diego game. But on the other hand, blowing that call actually made the final score indicative of the action, as that final touchdown that would have allowed the Steelers to cover was as meaningless and fluky as they come.

Week 12 Preview: I’m looking to rebound this week but I’m off to a bad start right off the bat as I once again did not get my picks posted in time for the Thursday night game.

Thursday Night’s Game

Cincinnati (+11.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: I picked this one right but I didn’t get this one in on time so I’m not going to take credit for it. This one seemed pretty clear to me, as the Bengals were coming off an overtime tie and had most of their offensive line banged up. Then Ocho Gayo was suspended and it became even more of an easy pick.

Sunday’s Early Games

Philadelphia (+1) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover.
Comment: I’ve never liked Donovan McNabb and always thought he was overrated but I have often felt bad for him because of some of the situations he has been put in (booed by Philly fans on draft day, put in the spotlight by Rush Limbaugh, Terrell Owens, Jeff Garcia playing well with McNabb hurt, etc.). However, he does something each year that takes away my sympathy. This year it’s his ridiculous claim that he didn’t know last Sunday’s game against the Bengals would be ruled a tie if the score remained tied through the overtime period. First of all, I find it hard to believe that he had no idea what would happen in that situation. More importantly, he acted as if not knowing the rule was no big deal, and even acted like it was the NFL’s fault for having such a dumb rule. McNabb hasn’t always been treated fairly but he makes everything worse by being highly unlikely. Anyway, as for the game against the Ravens, playing a full extra period last week is going to have an affect on the Eagles this week. The Ravens are 3-1 at home this year (their only loss a controversial 3 point defeat to undefeated Tennessee) and 49-19 at home in the regular season this decade. Brian Westbrook may or may not play, but even if he does play I still think the Ravens will bounce back from their loss to the Giants with a win over a different NFC East team this week.

Houston (+3) @ Cleveland
Pick: Browns cover.
Comment: Brady Quinn has a broken bone in the tip of his right index finger and I’m thinking that may have been the cause of some of the struggles he had last Monday in the Browns’ win over Buffalo. Kellen Winslow sustained a shoulder injury late in that game as well. And the Browns are just 1-4 at home this year. Still, the Texans have lost 3 straight and they are 0-5 on the road this year. I’ll take the Browns to win and it’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take them to cover.

San Francisco (+10) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys cover.
Comment: I don’t think the Cowboys are “back” and I’m not even sure they ever were really there this year, but I think they’re a lot closer to being a great team with Tony Romo at quarterback. Romo’s not 100% but he’s better than Brad Johnson or Brooks Bollinger at 60%. They’re getting healthier on defense as well. The Niners nearly won at Arizona a couple of weeks back and they pounded the Rams at home last week but this is a different deal. The Boys know they can’t afford any more slip ups and I think they will by more than 10.

Minnesota (+1) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags cover.
Comment: Something’s got to give here. The Vikes are 5-5; the Jags are 4-6. Jacksonville is 1-4 at home; Minnesota is 1-4 on the road. I don’t really like either of these teams to be honest. But I’ve got to pick one, and the Jags are at home, so I’ll take Jacksonville to win a close game.

Tampa Bay (-7.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Bucs win but Lions beat the spread.
Comment: The Bucs are in some trouble now that Earnest Graham is gone for the season. Before last week’s 6 point win over the Vikings at home, the Bucs had lost ATS in 3 straight games. The Lions should keep the dream of 0-16 alive this week but they’ve actually beaten the spread in 4 of their last 6 games. I think Tampa wins but not by more than a TD.

Buffalo (-3) @ Kansas City
Pick: Bills cover.
Comment: Again, something’s got to give here. The Chiefs have lost 6 straight; the Bills have lost 4 straight. Clearly, both teams are hurting. The Chiefs have the homefield edge but I think the Bills are the better team. I’ll take Buffalo to win and it’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take the winner to cover.

New England (+1) @ Miami
Pick: Patriots pull off the upset.
Comment: Both teams’ 6-4 records are impressive considering where they’ve come, and they could actually both be 8-2 very easily. Miami embarrassed the Patriots in Foxboro in week 3, winning by 25 points, but that was when nobody had seen the “Wildcat” formation. Also, in the last 2 weeks, the Dolphins have gotten 2 point wins over Seattle and Oakland at home. They’ll have to step it up to beat New England and I don’t think they’ll be able to do it. Bill Belichick won’t be caught off guard this time and he’s had 10 days to prepare. I think the Pats win it.

Chicago (-7.5) @ St. Louis
Pick: Bears cover.
Comment: I know the Bears got crushed last week but that was Orton’s first game back. More importantly, the Rams are pathetic and they’ll be without Stephen Jackson again this week. It’s really annoying that the Rams had that mini two game win streak over the Skins and Cowboys right after Scott Linehan was fired, because by all rights they should be having a historically bad season. They lost each of their first 4 games by 17 points. Then after Jim Haslett took over during a bye in week 5, they got a fluky win over the Skins and then ambushed a crippled and mentally unprepared Cowboys team. Since then, they’ve lost 4 straight, and each of the last 3 have been by at least 19 points. I’d take the Bears to win by double digits even if Rex Grossman was playing for Chicago and Jackson was playing for St. Louis.

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Jets beat the spread.
Comment: I realize that a 7-3 record stands out in the AFC right now but I’ve been amused by how eagerly people have been jumping on the Jets’ band wagon recently. They should be 8-2 but they could also easily be 4-6. The Titans are 10-0 and they are 9-1 ATS (the lone loss ATS being a 3 point overtime win over the Pack at home as a 3.5 point favorite). Everyone keeps saying that the Titans have to lose sometime and I would tend to agree, but in the last 3 weeks they have done much to make me think they just might be capable of finishing the regular season undefeated. 3 weeks ago they were coming off a monumental win over the Colts on Monday Night Football that gave them a huge lead in the division, and they struggled against the Packers at home before pulling it out in OT, 19-16. Then they went on the road to Chicago and everyone thought the Bears might be the team to stop them because of their run defense. Well, the Bears did stop Tennessee’s running attack, and the Titans won anyway on the arm of Kerry Collins. Then last week people thought a road game against a desperate division rival might do in the Titans, and they fell behind 14-3 against the Jags, but Collins led them to a come from behind victory, 24-14. Now a lot of folks think the “red hot” Jets might be the team to knock off Tennessee. I don’t. I think it’ll be fairly close but I like the Titans to win at home to get to 11-0.

Sunday’s Late Games

Oakland (+9.5) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos cover.
Comment: I know it isn’t politically correct but I’m still stunned that someone hasn’t publicly commented—at least in some way—about the fact that Denver’s starting backfield in week 11 was made up of 3 Caucasian players. I’m being completely honest when I say that it was something I had never seen before. QB Jay Cutler had rookie Peyton Hillis (a fullback out of Arkansas drafted in the 7th round) lined up at halfback and rookie Spencer Larsen (a linebacker out of Arizona drafted in the 6th round) lined up at fullback. Larsen started at fullback and linebacker. By the way, the Broncos hung on to beat the Falcons on the road, and despite injuries that have decimated the roster, in my opinion they have resurrected their season in the last 2 weeks. Darren McFadden won’t play for Oakland; JaMarcus Russell should play but that won’t matter. The Broncos won by 27 in Oakland in week 1 and they should at least win by double digits at home this week.

New York Giants (-3) @ Arizona
Pick: Giants cover.
Comment: Including the playoffs, the Giants are now 13-2 in their last 15 road games, and 15-2 in their last 17 games away from Giants Stadium. The Cardinals are 4-0 at home this year and 10-2 in Arizona over the last 2 years. The Cards have their own division wrapped up but they have another chance this Sunday to show that they are more than just the least bad team in a horrible division. The Giants, on the other hand, have a 3 game lead in the NFC East and the best record in the NFC, but when you look at the rest of New York’s schedule after this game (at Wash, vs. Philly, at Dallas, vs. Carolina, at Minnesota) you realize that they can’t afford to have an off game. Even though the Cardinals clearly have the most to prove, the Giants actually need this game more. I’ll take the G-Men to win and it’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take the winner to cover.

Washington (-3) @ Seattle
Pick: Redskins cover.
Comment: The Redskins’ 4 game win streak over the Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys, and Eagles was one of the more impressive things any team has accomplished this year. But since then their performance has been underwhelming. In the 5 games since their 4 game win streak, the Skins have lost to the Rams at home, beaten the Browns at home by 3, beaten the Lions on the road by 8, and scored a total of 16 points in back to back home losses to the Steelers and Cowboys. The Redskins are banged up, with Clinton Portis questionable for this week’s game and certainly not at full strength even if he does play. But despite all of these things, I still think Washington wins fairly easily this week. I’m done taking anything Seattle has done over the last 10 years into account when predicting what this year’s Seahawks team will do. Even with Matt Hasselbeck back last week the Seahawks still lost at home to Arizona. They’re just 1-4 at home this year with their only win coming over St. Louis. Seattle’s injury problems began before the season and they’ve never stopped. I like the Skins to win and it’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take them to cover.

Carolina (+1) @ Atlanta
Pick: Panthers pull off the upset.
Comment: Well, I had been worried that the Falcons would eventually lose a game they were “supposed” to win and it finally happened last week as they lost as 6.5 point favorites to the Broncos at home. Now I just hope the season doesn’t unravel on them. The Panthers beat the Falcons fairly easily at home in week 4 and they come into this game 8-2, but they really haven’t impressed me a whole lot recently. They’re just 5-4-1 ATS this season. But I don’t feel real good about this game as a Falcons fan. The Panthers normally play well in Atlanta: they’ve won 3 straight at the Georgia Dome and the 2 years before that they lost in OT. The Falcons had been great at home this year until their loss at home to an undermanned Broncos team last week, and to be honest, I think the Falcons’ 4-0 mark at home prior to last week may have had more to do with their home schedule (vs. the Lions, Chiefs, Bears, and Saints) than any advantage the Falcons get from the home crowd. In fact, their have been empty seats for every game at the Georgia Dome this year, and the fans of the visitors have been louder than the fans of the home team at times. I would love to see the Falcons win this game. It would be a huge victory. But that loss last week set me back and right now I just don’t believe

Sunday Night’s Game

Indianapolis (+2.5) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers cover.
Comment: I’d like to sort of push in this game and pick the Chargers to win but the Colts to beat the spread, but 2.5 is not a big spread. The Chargers continue to disappoint but they’re still 18-2 at home over the last 3 years. The Colts have gotten it together and won 3 straight, including their impressive road win over the Steelers 2 weeks ago. I think these teams are similar in that they have been great in the past but have looked like shells of their former selves at times this year. I think the Chargers will manage to win this one by a field goal.

Monday Night’s Game

Green Bay (+2.5) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover.
Comment: The Saints are back to .500 at 5-5 but they still haven’t won back to back games yet this season. The Packers have played well since their 3 game losing streak but they’ve gone just 3-2 since then. I would think that whether or not Reggie Bush can play and be effective would have a major impact on the outcome of this game. Ryan Grant has been having more success for Green Bay recently but this game could end up being decided by which QB plays better. I don’t feel strongly about this one but I’ll take the Saints to win and by a field goal.

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