The College Football Blog: Week 11 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (3-7); Moneyline Upsets (1-0)
Season: Vs. Spread (46-53-1); Moneyline Upsets (10-13)

Week 10 Review: Last week was probably my worst week of the season. I went just 3-7 against the spread for the 2nd time in 3 weeks. Plus, a number of my picks were way off (Tulsa, Missouri, Washington, Tennessee, etc.) and I was incorrect on the biggest game of the week (Texas -3.5). I also got screwed by FSU (+2.5), as they choked at the goal line against Tech and lost by 3. I was terrible in the NFL last week as well and I’ve decided that the technical difficulties and rushed atmosphere in which I was forced to make my picks played a major role in my disappointing results. However, I will admit that over the course of my gambling career there has never been any correlation between the amount of research done by me and the success or failure of my predictions. That’s true with a few exceptions, one of those being the time that I phoned in $50 parlay bets on the spread and the over/under of all of the next day’s 1:00 PM NFL games, while in between blackouts during a Panic Halloween run in New Orleans. I went oh-fer and in one 4 hour period went from being up big to being deep in the hole. But anyway, I sucked last week picking games but only because I was hurried.

Week 11 Preview: It seems to me like there are a lot of easy winners this week with simple choices to make and that normally spells disaster for me. This week I’m picking 9 favorites to cover. I did this unintentionally, and when I realized it, I decided to pick 4 moneyline upsets to balance things out. I should go 2-8/0-4.

Saturday
Game 1: Ohio State (-11) @ Northwestern
Pick: Ohio State covers.
Comment: Ohio State owns the Wildcats. Since 1964, the Buckeyes are 32-2 against NW and 14-1 in Evanston. Only 2 of the last 28 games between these 2 have been decided by 7 pts or less. In 2004, NW beat the then #7 ranked Buckeyes 33-27 in OT at home in a game they came into as 11 point underdogs. In the 3 meetings since, Ohio State has won all 3 games by a combined score of 160-24, winning by an average score of 53.3-8. They’ve won each game by at least 41 points, scored at least 48 in each game, and they haven’t given up more than 10 points in any of the 3 games. However, this Ohio State team is not as good as any of the previous 3 Buckeye squads. If you take away their 45-7 win at Michigan State, Ohio State’s season is not that impressive: a 12-point win over Ohio; an 18 point win over Troy; a 3 point win at Wisconsin; and a 13 point win over Purdue are some of the underwhelming wins on their resume. In years past the Buckeyes would have won those games by 25, 30, 40 points. I know that some of that was without Beanie Wells and that Terelle Pryor has been learning on the job but this still isn’t as dominating an Ohio State team as usual. They are coming off a bye but Northwestern is a decent team this season. After shitting themselves in a horrendous loss to Indiana in week 9, the Wildcats appeared on the verge of losing to Minnesota last week before pulling out a victory late. Well, I went into this thinking Northwestern would beat the spread and I’ve talked myself into picking the Buckeyes to cover. The final check mark on Ohio State’s side comes from a comparison of each team’s game against Michigan State. Ohio State won by 38 on the road; Northwestern lost by 17 at home.

Game 2: Baylor (+27.5) @ Texas
Pick: Texas covers.
Comment: I realize that Baylor played Missouri tough last week but this is Texas and this one is in Austin. I’m betting that the Horns are a little mad right now as well. The Bears have lost to the Longhorns 71 times in their history. In the last 6 games, UT has outscored Baylor 297-55 and shut them out 3 times. In 2006, Texas was favored by 27 at home against Baylor and won 63-31 behind then freshman QB Colt McCoy’s 6 touchdown passes.

Game 3: Memphis (-2) @ SMU
Pick: Memphis covers.
Comment: Last year Memphis won a 3OT thriller, 55-52, at home in the season finale. This time the game’s in Dallas but SMU is still pretty bad; like 1-8, 0-8 against the FBS bad. The Mustangs have played better at home this year and they’re coming off a bye. However, Memphis is also coming off a bye and they are the better team and should win this one if they don’t kill themselves with mistakes.

Game 4: Oklahoma (-28) @ Texas A&M
Pick: A&M beats the spread.
Comment: This is the only 1 of my 10 picks ATS in which I’m taking the underdog. Oklahoma is 8-1 since 1999 against the Aggies and I’m sure they’ll beat them again this Saturday and do so easily. But this game is at Kyle Field and Oklahoma’s defense just hasn’t been stout enough for me to think they will win by at least 4 touchdowns. A&M has won their last 2 games and before that they hung in against Texas Tech before fading in the second half. Still, they only lost by 18 to Texas Tech and I don’t think Oklahoma will beat them that much worse.

Game 5: Penn State (-7.5) @ Iowa
Pick: Penn State covers.
Comment: What’s up with this spread? Penn State better beat Iowa State by more than 7 points or else they’ll lose even more ground in the BCS beauty contest. Penn State just beat Ohio State by 7 on the road; why are they only favored to beat Iowa on the road by a half point more? Before the Ohio State game the Nittany Lions had won each game by at least 14 points. They are coming off a bye week during which they heard all about how they may be shutout of the BCS title game even if they are undefeated. I’m thinking they will be looking to send as big a message as they can this week. Iowa is coming off a loss at Illinois and they haven’t beaten a decent team yet this year. True, the Hawkeyes are 5-2 against PSU under Kirk Ferentz but their last 2 wins came in 2003 and 2004 when Iowa was a combined 20-5 and the Lions went 7-16. Since then PSU is 38-9 and Iowa is 24-22 and PSU won the only meeting between the two during that time, winning last year, 27-7 at home.

Game 6: Alabama (-3) @ LSU
Pick: Bama covers.
Comment: Many people are clearly looking at this game as a major challenge for Alabama. It will be an emotionally charged atmosphere for Nick Saban’s return to be sure. This will surely be Bama’s biggest test since their week 5 game against Georgia in Athens. However, I’m not giving Bama much of a chance to lose. Being a die-hard SEC person, I really hope this game is competitive, but I have some fear that LSU simply isn’t that good this year for whatever reasons. You figured that even with all that they lost the Tigers still had enough talent to be one of the best teams in the FBS this season, but they do not have an impressive resume to this point. They’ve played 3 cupcakes at home and in their 5 SEC games they are 3-2 with their best win being a 7 point victory over South Carolina on the road. Bama has struggled to maintain their focus at times against weaker competition this season but that won’t be an issue on Saturday. LSU has recent history on its side, having won 5 straight over the Tide, and this will certainly be a hostile environment for Bama and Saban to enter. But the difference between the homefield advantage for LSU in a day game and the homefield advantage for LSU at night is like, well, night and day. No fooling, it really does make a big difference having this game at 3:30 as opposed to 8:00. LSU didn’t come close to beating Florida or Georgia so why would they do so against Alabama?

Game 7: Arizona (-41) @ Washington State
Pick: Arizona covers.
Comment: I’m jumping on the Whoever-is-Playing-Wazzoo band wagon. They are 0-8 vs. FBS teams this year and they’ve lost each game by at least 25 points. They’ve allowed at least 58 points in 5 different games and they’ve lost 5 games by at least 49 points. They are coming off a 58-0 loss to Stanford on the road. The game before that they lost 69-0 to USC at home. Before that they lost 66-13 at Oregon State. In those last 3 games they have been outscored 193-13. Earlier this season they lost 66-3 to Cal at home and 63-14 to Oregon at home. Arizona is coming off a bye and is a mediocre football team. In their last 2 games they beat Cal at home by 15 and then lost just 17-10 to USC at home. They have struggled on the road in recent years but they won 31-10 at UCLA earlier this season. Besides, 41 points is just not a big spread for any reasonably capable team to cover against the Cougs right now, regardless of location.

Game 8: Kansas State (+27) @ Missouri
Pick: Missouri covers.
Comment: Missouri had lost 13 straight to KSU prior to a 20 point win in 06 and they won last year in Manhattan by 17. Mizzu has struggled over the last month but in their last home game they beat Colorado 58-0. The Wildcats lost to Colorado earlier this year on the road and in their last 2 games they have lost by 23 to Oklahoma at home and by 21 to Kansas on the road. KSU started out 5-3 last year and then lost their last 4 games by an average of 21.5 points. They started this year 4-2 but they’ve lost their last 3 and Ron Prince is now a lame duck coach. I expect the Tigers to roll and the Wildcats to quit like they did at Nebraska this time last year (73-31 loss in Lincoln to a bad Cornhuskers team).

Game 9: Cal (+21) @ USC
Pick: USC covers.
Comment: Whoever plays quarterback for Cal this week is irrelevant. The Trojans should beat them like a drum. Troy has won 5 straight since the hiccup in Corvallis. USC is 7-1 with that lone loss coming to Oregon State but in their 7 wins they have allowed a total of 30 points (4.3 per game). In their 7 wins, USC has allowed no more than 10 points in any game and has pitched 3 shutouts. They also held Ohio State without a touchdown. Since losing at Berkley in 3OT in 2003, the Trojans have won 4 in a row vs. the Bears and they’ve covered in the last 3 games. Cal has won 4 of their last 5 games but in their 2 road contests other than their game at Washington State the Bears have lost by 8 to Maryland and by 15 to Arizona.

Game 10: Wyoming (+26.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee covers.
Comment: So Fat Phil is out. I truly believe that all he had to do was win 9 games a year and they would never have forced him out. You can say all you want about not winning as many SEC games in this decade and not having won an SEC Championship since 1998 but it was the 2 losing seasons in 4 years that did him in. This is definitely the worst Volunteer team since Fulmer got his program rolling in the 90’s, much worse than even the 5-6 team of 2005. That team lost 3 conference games by 4 points or less and beat then #3 LSU on the road. This team is 1-5 in the SEC so far; lost to Florida, Georgia, Bama, and South Carolina by double digits; lost to a bad UCLA team; and beat Northern Illinois 13-9 at home. Still, I think they have a good performance in them and it could definitely come this week against a weak Wyoming team at home, with the players obviously looking to play well for their beleaguered coach. Tennessee did beat UAB by 32 at home and Miss State by 31 at home earlier this year, and Wyoming is just 2-6 against FBS teams this season, with their 2 wins coming at home over Ohio and San Diego State. Tennessee should demolish Wyoming and if they can’t overwhelm the Cowboys it will only be further proof of the decline of the program.

Moneyline Specials

I only picked one moneyline game last week, and although it took 4 overtimes, Pitt finally made me a winner with their 36-33 upset of Notre Dame in South Bend. I’m still a few games under .500 so I’m going to try and make up the difference all in one week by picking 4 moneyline upsets and hoping to go at least 3-1. Also, since I picked 9 favorites ATS I figured I should take a few underdogs to win.

Kansas over Nebraska: I was surprised to see that the Jayhawks were 1.5 point underdogs on the road at Nebraska this week. Not that I think Kansas is that good, but I do think they’re decent, and I think Nebraska sucks. However, I may be a little biased against Nebraska because of their recent history and because they have been crushed in the 2 games that I’ve watched them play this season (52-17 vs. Missouri; 62-28 @ Oklahoma). They’re 5-2 in their other 7 games and they’ve been competitive each week, with their losses coming by 5 points to VT at home and by 6 points in OT at Texas Tech. Still, I keep thinking about last year’s game in Lawrence when the Jayhawks put up 70 on the Cornhuskers’ Black Shirt defense. This season Kansas has remained relatively high in the rankings thanks almost entirely to last year’s 12-1 record. They are 5-3 against FBS teams and their best win is either against Colorado at home or Kansas State at home. In their 3 games against good competition they lost at USF by 3 points, at Oklahoma by 14, and at home to Texas Tech by 42. They were 4-0 on the road last year but prior to that they had been just 6-28 on the road this decade. This year they are 1-2 on the road with a 2 point win at Iowa State. The biggest reason to doubt Kansas this weekend is their 0-19 record against Nebraska on the road since 1969. But I predict that streak ends this Saturday. If I get this one wrong I won’t mind too much because I like to see the Fat Mangino lose.

Virginia over Wake Forrest: UVA is a 3.5 point underdog on the road against Wake this Saturday. The Cavaliers’ stunning 4-game win streak was stopped last week with an overtime loss to Miami at home. Now they go on the road where they are just 1-2 this season and 15-27 under Al Groh. Fortunately they will be facing a reeling Demon Deacons squad that had lost 3 of 4 prior to last week’s escape in OT over Duke at home. UVA has won 20 of 21 vs. WF since 1984 and I think they’ll win again this time.

UCLA over Oregon State: The Bruins are 8 point underdogs at home this week against the Beavers. I think Oregon State is a decent team and I don’t think UCLA is any good at all but I just have a feeling about this one. The Beavers have lost 5 straight to UCLA by an average of 21 points and Mike Riley is 0-9 against UCLA in his head coaching career. Oregon State is just 1-3 on the road this season and UCLA is 3-2 at home and 19-5 at the Rose Bowl over the last 4 years.

Oklahoma State over Texas Tech: The Cowboys are 3.5 point underdogs on the road against the #2 team in the country this week. I don’t really have a lot to back this one up. I think these two teams are basically evenly matched and Texas Tech has the homefield advantage so I would normally go with them. However, we’ve seen in recent years how hard it can be for a program not used to being on top to maintain their place. In recent times we’ve seen Big East teams take turns rising to the top and then falling. And there have been other teams—Boston College and Missouri come to mind—that have been knocked off right after reaching perhaps the highest point in their program’s history. I think maybe the Red Raiders will fall victim to that this weekend. There’s no doubt that last Saturday night’s victory over Texas was the single greatest moment in Texas Tech’s history to this point and it might be hard to follow that up with a great performance against a great team. Okie State already pulled off a major upset on the road this season, winning at Missouri a month ago. They may come into Lubbock and derail the Red Raiders’ perfect season this Saturday.