Friday, November 21, 2008

The College Football Blog: Week 13 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (7-3); Moneyline Upsets (1-0)
Season: Vs. Spread (56-63-1); Moneyline Upsets (11-17)

Week 12 Review: I rebounded from one of my worst weeks of the season with one of my better weeks of the year last week, going 7-3 ATS and picking my moneyline upset correctly. My only real bad pick was Washington +6.5, as they lost by 20.

Week 13 Preview: There are a ton of interesting games this week and I feel good about predicting a number of matchups. There were actually over 20 games that I thought about picking but I narrowed it down to 10. I need a couple more solid weeks here in order to get back to .500 ATS before the end of the year.

Saturday

Game 1: Michigan (+20.5) @ Ohio State
Pick: Ohio State covers.
Comment: As bad as it has been for Coach Rod and the Wolverines this year, a win over the Buckeyes in Columbus this weekend might make a 4-8 season feel at least as good as an 8-4 season. I don’t think it will happen, however. Ohio State is 6-1 vs. Michigan under Jim Tressel and 3-0 at home. I think they’ll blowout Big Blue as expected.

Game 2: Arkansas (-1) @ Mississippi State
Pick: Arkansas covers.
Comment: Mississippi State has been a totally different team at home this year, going 3-2 with a pair of 1 point losses at home, as opposed to 0-5 with no loss by fewer than 8 points on the road. Arkansas is just 1-3 on the road this season but they’ve really been playing better over the last month and a half and they’re coming off of a bye. The Hogs have won 9 straight and 11 of 12 over Miss State and I think they’ll win again on Saturday by about a field goal or so.

Game 3: Washington (-7.5) @ Washington State
Pick: Washington covers.
Comment: This is pretty pathetic. Washington is 0-10 and has lost 12 straight going back to last season. Washington State ended last season with a win over the Huskies in Seattle, but this year they are 1-10, 0-10 vs. FBS teams, and have lost all 10 games against FBS teams by at least 25 points. Washington has won 5 of 6 in Pullman and the Cougars are so bad I just have to take the Huskies to win by double digits.

Game 4: Stanford (+9) @ Cal
Pick: Stanford beats the spread.
Comment: I don’t get this spread. Cal had won 5 straight in this series until Stanford knocked them off at home last year as 13 point underdogs. The only reason I can think of for this spread being so big is the fact that the game is in Berkley where the Bears 5-0 this year and 16-2 over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, Stanford is just 1-5 on the road this year and just 4-13 on the road over the last 3 years. But 9 points? I’ll take the Cardinal to stay within a TD.

Game 5: Michigan State (+14.5) @ Penn State
Pick: Michigan State beats the spread.
Comment: I’ll never truly understand the way Vegas works. This seems way too high. Then again, PSU has dominated at home this year, and Michigan State got obliterated in their biggest game of the year so far, at home against Ohio State a month ago. Still, their only other loss is at Cal in August by 7 points. MSU rallied from a 24-7 3rd quarter deficit to win the Land Grant Trophy last year but that was at home. PSU has won 11 of 15 in this series and they’re 7-0 against MSU at home since 1990. I think they’ll win again this Saturday but I like Michigan State to at least stay within 2 touchdowns.

Game 6: Boise State (-6) @ Nevada
Pick: Boise State covers.
Comment: I realize that Nevada is tough at home and that last year they took the Broncos to 4 overtimes before losing, 69-67, on the blue turf, but 6 points is a really small spread. Boise State has won each WAC game by at least 17 points this year and Nevada lost to New Mexico State at home earlier this season. I’ll take the Broncos to win by at least a TD.

Game 7: BYU (+6.5) @ Utah
Pick: BYU beats the spread.
Comment: Many predicted that the 84th Holy War would be for the Mountain West championship and some thought it would be a battle of undefeated teams fighting for a spot in a BCS bowl. It almost happened that way, but TCU gave BYU a loss and really should have given the Utes a loss as well. Still, this one is huge and it should be very tight, as 10 of the last 11 in this series have been decided by a TD or less. I think it’ll be even closer than that this year.

Game 8: Iowa (-6) @ Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota beats the spread.
Comment: Another curious spread in my opinion. I know that Iowa is “hot” and Minnesota has lost 3 straight but they’re 4-2 at home this year, while Iowa is 1-3 on the road. Iowa has won 6 of 7 and 11 of 15 in the Battle for Floyd of Rosedale and they might win again on Saturday, but I like Minnesota to keep it close in their last ever game at the Metrodome.

Game 9: Pitt (+6) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Pitt beats the spread.
Comment: I know the Bearcats are hot and Cinci is 4-0 at home this year, but the Panthers have also been playing pretty well lately and they’re 4-0 on the road this year. Pitt is 7-0 all-time in this series and I think they’ll keep it close this weekend.

Game 10: Texas Tech (+7) @ Oklahoma
Pick: Texas Tech beats the spread.
Comment: This is a biggie. Last year Tech pulled off the upset in Lubbock but this one is in Norman, and I still think Oklahoma would have won last year and gone to the BCS Championship Game if Sam Bradford hadn’t been knocked out of the game early on. The Sooners are 54-2 at home this decade; hence the 7 point spread over undefeated Texas Tech. I think the Sooners may win this one but I have to take the Red Raiders to keep it close.

Moneyline Specials

After another awful 0-4 in moneyline specials a couple of weeks ago I played it safe and went with only one small upset pick last week and it paid off, as Maryland edged out UNC. I’ve decided that my upset record is so bad at this point that it really wouldn’t matter if I had another bad week or two so I might as well go for broke and try and get back close to .500. Thus, I’m making 5 upset picks this week.

UVA over Clemson: Virginia is a 2.5 point underdog at home this week. Just a hunch here. Virginia is 42-14 at home this decade. Clemson is 3-5 vs. FBS teams this year, and 2 of their wins are at home against NC State and Duke. UVA is coming off a bye and I don’t think they’ll lose 3 straight.

Northwestern over Illinois: Somewhat surprisingly, NW is a 2.5 point underdog at home this week. I don’t see why Illinois is favored. They’ve been living off of last year’s 9-4 record all season. This year they’re just 5-6 and 4-6 vs. FBS teams. The Wildcats had won 4 straight over the Illini before last year’s loss and I think they’ll start another streak on Saturday.

Ole Miss over LSU: Mississippi is just a 4 point underdog this week @ LSU. I wouldn’t think that LSU would lose a game like this but I just have a strong feeling that they’re going to. LSU has won 6 straight over Ole Miss but they’ve needed a lot of luck to avoid losing at least one of those. 4 of those last 6 have been decided by a field goal or less and in LSU’s 41-24 win last year they were actually outgained by the Rebels. Consider that since a fluky loss to Vandy in week 4, the Rebs are 4-2 with a win over Florida on the road, a 7 point loss to SC, and a 4 point loss at Bama. Meanwhile, LSU is just 3-3 over their last 6 games, and last week they were down 31-3 to Troy at home before scoring 37 unanswered points for a comeback win. Now, their 3 losses this year have been at Florida, at home to Georgia, and at home to Bama in OT, but they just haven’t been impressive and I think the Rebs might be able to pull this one out. Considering the spread, would Ole Miss be favored if this game was in Oxford? Pretty amazing when you think about it.

Boston College over Wake Forrest: BC is a 2.5 point road dog at Wake this week. Another hunch here. Wake is 6-4 but could easily be 3-7. BC is coming off of back to back solid wins and I think they’ll make it 3 in a row with a win over WF this Saturday.

Oregon State over Arizona: Oregon State is a 2.5 point underdog at Arizona this week. Obviously this spread is all about the homefield advantage, as Arizona is 8-3 at home over the last two seasons, and Oregon State is 5-6 on the road during the same time. But OSU has won 8 of their last 9 against the Cats, including 3 straight in Tucson. And since getting hammered at Penn State to fall to 0-2, the Beaves are 7-1, with their lone loss being at Utah, 31-28, in a game they should have won. I think they’ll beat Arizona in the desert this Saturday.

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