The College Football Blog: Week 14 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (2-8); Moneyline Upsets (4-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (58-71-1); Moneyline Upsets (15-18)

Week 13 Review: Well, last week was definitely my worst week of the year ATS, as I went just 2-8, and I was pretty fortunate not to be 1-9. I did go 4 for 5 on moneyline picks but 2-8 is unacceptable. And folks, some of my picks last week were ridiculously far off. I picked Minnesota to beat the 6 point spread against Iowa and they lost 55-0. I picked Texas Tech to beat the 7 point spread against Oklahoma and they lost 65-21. Clearly I have no idea what I’m doing. However, instead of quitting while I’m only behind a little, I’m going to ignore all the evidence and believe that I can make up for last week with a little double or nothing this week.

Week 14 Preview: Last week’s horrible results might be taken by some as a sign that I should just give up on making predictions but that’s not how I see it. Uh-uh. I take last week’s horrible results to mean something else: do more. And this is the last real week of the season, so I’m just going to pick a whole shit load of games this week and hope to go something like, oh, I don’t know, 13 games over .500.

Tuesday

Game 1: Western Michigan (+10) @ Ball State
Pick: BSU covers.
Comment: At first when I saw this spread I thought I would take WM. But then when I was looking over Ball State’s games I realized that they had won each game by at least 12 points until last week when they won by 7 at Central Michigan. And CM is clearly the 2nd best team in the MAC. Western Michigan is the 3rd best MAC team, but WM lost at CM by 10 even though CM was without Dan LeFevour. And this game is at BSU. I like the Cardinals to win by at least 12.

Thursday

Game 2: Texas A&M (+34) @ Texas
Pick: A&M beats the spread.
Comment: This is the worst Aggies squad in a long time and Texas will be looking to set things right in this rivalry after losing to A&M the last 2 years. The Horns will also want to put up an impressive score for the voters. But 34 points is a lot. The Horns won 3 of their first games by more 42 points but they haven’t won by more than 29 in any of their other 8 games. A&M lost by 38 to Oklahoma a few weeks ago but they haven’t lost by more than 28 in any of their other 10 games. And this is a rivalry game. I think Texas will win big but not by 34 points.

Friday

Game 3: Mississippi State (+13) @ Mississippi
Pick: Mississippi State beats the spread.
Comment: Miss is probably the 4th best team in the SEC and they are on a 4 game roll. They’ve won 4 of the last 6 Egg Bowls and should have won last year. Miss State is 0-5 on the road and they’ve lost those 5 games by an average of 21 points. But for some reason I think they’ll stay within 13 of the Rebs.

Game 4: LSU (-5) vs. Arkansas
Pick: LSU covers.
Comment: LSU was won 10 of their last 14 against Arkansas and had won 4 in a row before dropping last year’s game in 3-OT. I know LSU has been very shaky this year but Arkansas isn’t any good. I think the Tigers will rebound from last week’s loss and it may do them some good to play in Little Rock, as it won’t be a true road game but they will get away from some of the pressure that a disappointed fan base has put on them at home. They should win this one by at least a touchdown.

Game 5: Colorado (+16) @ Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska covers.
Comment: This one is often hard to predict and I’ve been very hesitant to put much trust in Nebraska. However, they’ve won 4 of their last 5 games, with each win coming by at least 8 points, and Colorado has lost 6 of 8, with 5 of those losses coming by 13 points or more. I’ll take the Cornhuskers to win by 17 or more in this one.

Game 6: West Virginia (-3) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: West Virginia covers.
Comment: Last year’s Backyard Brawl ended up being one of the most important games of the college football season. Not only did Pitt’s stunning upset as a 29 point underdog knock West Virginia out of the National Championship Game, it led to Rich Rodriguez leaving West Virginia to take the Michigan job. The Mountaineers should be out for revenge and I think they’re the better team.

Game 7: Fresno State (+19.5) @ Boise State
Pick: Fresno State beats the spread.
Comment: My first reaction was to take the Broncos here, as they are dominant at home, Fresno State has been a bit of a disappointment this year, and Boise State has really owned the Bulldogs recently. The Broncos have won 6 of 7 over Fresno State, with the average score of the last 7 games being 36-22. But 3 of Fresno State’s 4 losses have come by 3 points and I wonder if Boise State will be as fired up for this one as the Bulldogs considering that they’ve already won the WAC and they know they have virtually no chance of getting to a BCS game. I’m not saying they won’t be excited about finishing the season undefeated, and I think they’ll win this game handedly, but I think they’ll be content to win by 14 or 17 and won’t blow Fresno out.

Game 8: UCLA (+10) @ Arizona State
Pick: UCLA beats the spread.
Comment: I know UCLA struggles on the road but they’ve done pretty well against the bad teams in the Pac-10 this year and ASU is one of the most disappointing teams in the country. I don’t think the Sun Devils will win by double digits.

Saturday

Game 9: Florida (-15.5) @ Florida State
Pick: FSU beats the spread.
Comment: I’m probably stupid for doing this considering that Florida has won each of their last 7 games by at least 28 points. The Gators have won 4 in a row over the Noles but this one is in Tallahassee and the last 2 times there the Gators have only won by 7 points. FSU has been up and down but I think they might keep this one within 2 touchdowns.

Game 10: Maryland (+6.5) @ Boston College
Pick: Maryland beats the spread.
Comment: Maryland has been inconsistent as usual and they’ve struggled on the road again this year. Plus, last week they got destroyed at home, 37-3 by FSU. But BC lost QB Chris Crane to a broken collarbone last week and will have a redshirt freshman starting at QB this week. And the Eagles weren’t that much better than the Terps even with Crane. I’d still take BC to win because it’s in Chestnut Hill but I’ll take Maryland to stay within 6.

Game 11: South Carolina (+1) @ Clemson
Pick: South Carolina beats the spread.
Comment: The Tigers have won 9 of 11 but I just have a feeling that the Gamecocks will beat Clemson this year.

Game 12: UNC (-8.5) @ Duke
Pick: UNC covers.
Comment: UNC’s season has taken a downturn in the last two weeks and last week’s blowout loss at home to NC State was shocking. I think they’ll be focused this week and will come out looking to deal their biggest rivals a beat down. I think they may win by 20 points or more and I think they’ll at least win by double digits.

Game 13: Miami (-1) @ NC State
Pick: Miami covers.
Comment: The Wolfpack have played pretty well recently and last week they had their best performance in at least 3 years. Miami, on the other hand, took a big step back with last Thursday night’s blowout loss at GT. But I don’t see NC State beating Miami twice in a row.

Game 14: Oklahoma (-7.5) @ Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma covers.
Comment: This series is called Bedlam but it’s not normally all that wild, as Oklahoma usually just works the Redheads. In fact, it’s the most lopsided in-state rivalry in the nation, with the Sooners holding a 78-17-7 advantage all-time. It’s usually not that close either, although there is a much better chance of the game being competitive when it’s in Stillwater. I don’t think the Sooners will do Okie State like they did Texas Tech, but I think they’ll win decisively, by at least double digits.

Game 15: Baylor (+20) @ Texas Tech
Pick: Texas Tech covers.
Comment: I know Baylor is better this year and I know the Red Raiders are coming off a humiliating defeat that likely ended their National Title, Big XII Championship, Big XII South Championship, and even BCS Bowl Game hopes, but I still like Tech to win by at least 3 TD’s. Texas Tech will get support from their fans at home and they’ll be looking to get last week’s awful taste out of their mouths. Tech has won 12 straight over Baylor by an average of 30 points and it wouldn’t surprise me if they won by more than that this year.

Game 16: Virginia (+8.5) @ Virginia Tech
Pick: Virginia Tech covers.
Comment: UVA has now lost 3 straight and they were down right awful against Clemson last week. VT has won 4 straight and 8 of 9 against UVA and all 8 wins have been by at least 12 points. They should win by double digits again this year.

Game 17: Syracuse (+22) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati covers.
Comment: The Cuse is coming off their huge upset of Notre Dame on the road but Cinci will be playing to win the Big East championship and secure a BCS bowl bid. I think they’ll poor it on the Orange.

Game 18: Kansas (+13) vs. Missouri
Pick: Missouri covers.
Comment: This one is played in Kansas City and last year it was one of the more surprising big games in recent memory, as Missouri came in ranked 3rd in the country and Kansas was undefeated and ranked #2. Missouri won to clinch the Big XII North but Kansas ended up going to a BCS bowl instead of the Tigers for some reason that isn’t worth talking about. While I don’t think the Tigers are as good as they were last year, I think Kansas is a mediocre team at best. I’ll take Missouri to win by at least 2 touchdowns.

Game 19: Auburn (+14) @ Alabama
Pick: Alabama covers.
Comment: In recent years, Auburn has used the Iron Bowl to end disappointing years on a good note and put a cherry on top of great years. This time a win would be one glorious moment at the end of the worst season of the decade. Auburn has won 6 straight over their arch rivals but it seems highly unlikely that they’ll extend that streak this year. Bama hasn’t done a very good job putting teams away, but they’re the only remaining undefeated team from a BCS conference and I think the Tide players who have never beaten Auburn will make sure they make up for it by putting a serious beating on them this time.

Game 20: Kentucky (+4) @ Tennessee
Pick: Kentucky beats the spread.
Comment: The Vols will probably win but I think the Cats will keep within a field goal.

Game 21: Oregon (+3) @ Oregon State
Pick: Oregon State covers.
Comment: Clearly the status of starting QB Lyle Moevao and star running back Jacquizz Rodgers will have a big impact on this game. If they both play, I think the Beaves will win for sure. If not, I’d say it’s almost a tossup, but I’m going to take Oregon State to cover because it’s a 3 point spread and they’ve been up to the task most of the time this year, regardless of the circumstance.

Game 22: Vanderbilt (+3.5) @ Wake Forrest
Pick: Wake Forrest covers.
Comment: Almost any other year, Vandy getting bowl eligible would have been great for the SEC because it would mean that the traditional weak link wouldn’t be so weak. But this year Vandy’s success has really just shown how down the league is this season. I know Wake has been struggling but there’s simply no way you can bet with Vandy this week if you watched them play against Tennessee at home last week.

Game 23: Notre Dame (+29) @ USC
Pick: USC covers.
Comment: I don’t see Notre Dame scoring in double figures and I hope USC wins by 50.

Game 24: Washington State (+27.5) @ Hawaii
Pick: Washington State beats the spread.
Comment: Call me crazy but I’m actually going to pick Washington State to beat this spread. Trust me, I still think Hawaii will win easily but I think they’ll win by 21 or 24, not 28.

Moneyline Specials

While I was awful ATS last week, I did manage to go 4-1 on moneyline upset picks and I’ve hit on 5 of my last 6 moneyline upsets. This week I’m picking 3 in hopes of finishing the year at .500.

Navy over NIU: Navy is a 3 point dog on the road this week at NIU in game that will be played on Tuesday night. This seems like a tossup and normally I’d go with the home team and that type of situation but this seems like a game the Midshipmen can win. NIU has had a very respectable season but I think Navy will be the team to end up with 7 wins.

Louisiana Tech over Nevada: LT is a 3.5 point underdog at home this week against Nevada. The Bulldogs have very quietly been a decent team this year, going 7-4 with wins over Mississippi State and Fresno State. Nevada is a solid team but LT is 5-0 at home this year and I think they’ll win again this week.

Rice over Houston: Rice is a 3 point underdog at home this week against Houston. No team has gotten less recognition for having a successful year than the Owls. They are 8-3, with their 3 losses coming at Vandy, at Texas, and at Tulsa, and they are 6-1 in Conference USA play. Houston has been hot recently but I think Rice will beat their neighbors for just the 10th time in 35 tries this week.