Thursday, November 6, 2008

The NFL Blog: Week 10 Betting Lines

I was forced to do a half-assed version last week as my internet was out. So I’ve got some catching up to do this week.

Week 8: Vs. Spread (5-7-2); Straight Up (8-6)
Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-9); Straight Up (9-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (58-66-6); Straight Up (82-48)

Week 8 Review: This was a tough week ATS, as I pushed on a couple of games and ended up under .500. And it’s not like I was all that hot just picking winners in week 8, as I was only 2 games over .500.

Week 9 Review: Ugh. I’m going to give myself the benefit of the doubt and say that I was clearly affected by the hurried atmosphere under which I was forced to make my picks last week. But I also went against my strategy of picking underdogs in games with big spreads and paid the price, with the Bears and Bucs coming nowhere close to covering. At least I went 9-5 straight up. That’s about all I can say.

Week 10 Preview: I have no strategy this week. I’m just glad I don’t have to give a compromised version of my picks this week. Still, I’m a little annoyed due to the fact that the week starts on Thursday night, along with the fact that there is still no line on the Steelers-Colts game, and the fact that my internet is still down.

Thursday Night’s Game

Denver (+3.5) @ Cleveland
Pick: Browns cover.
Comment: The first of the late season Thursday night specials is this week. For those that don’t have NFL Network this game will likely go by unnoticed because the matchup isn’t too sexy. For those of us who do have NFL Network the best news of the offseason was that Bryant Gumble would no longer be doing play-by-play of all NFLN broadcasts. Actually, do be honest, I’m kind of bummed that Kermit the Frog won’t be there for us to mock and laugh at. I heard a rumor that a pledge at some fraternity in the northeast died of acute alcohol poisoning last year after taking part in a drinking game. Apparently he had been forced to take a 5 second pull of bourbon every time Skinny Gumble said “It would appear” during the telecast of the Giants-Patriots season finale. Anyway, this matchup brings to mind the Broncos-Browns AFC Championship Game trilogy of the late 80’s that included “The Drive” and “The Fumble.” The Broncos won all 3 contests. That was a different Cleveland franchise of course but it was still a Cleveland Browns team. This matchup had almost no intrigue until out of the blue the Browns announced on Monday that Brady Quinn would be starting at QB in place of Derek Anderson. Quinn, mind you, has yet to throw a pass in a regular season game for the Browns. On top of that, the move came during a week in which they play on Thursday, so Quinn will have just 3 days to prepare for his first NFL regular season action. The Browns were supposed to contend for the playoffs again this year but they’ve been a major disappointment. Considering that they started the season 0-3, however, they aren’t in that bad of shape. It wasn’t all Anderson’s fault. They’ve been hurt by the narcissism of Kellen Winslow and all the dropped passes by Braylon Edwards. Still, the Browns are actually 5-3 ATS this year. The Broncos, on the other hand, have been exposed as frauds, having lost 4 of 5 since their 3-0 start. If you think about it, the Broncos could easily be 1-7. Their losses have each been by 7 points or more and 3 of their 4 wins have come by 3 points or less. They needed a blown call to beat San Diego and they escaped against New Orleans thanks to Martin Gramatica missing a 43-yard field goal. The Broncos are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games and 1-6-1 ATS this year! Since their big win at Oakland in week 1, the Broncos have pushed thanks to the blown call against the Chargers and then lost against the spread in each of their last 6 games. They are now 11-28-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons. Brady Quinn may be mostly ineffective but the Browns still have Jamal Lewis and the Broncos are allowing 144.6 yards a game on the ground. So I’ll take the Browns to cover despite the inexperienced QB.

Sunday’s Early Games

New Orleans (+1) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover.
Comment: This is still one of the more underrated rivalries in the NFL. I’m a little surprised that the Saints aren’t favored in this one. The Saints are just 4-4 on the year but they could very easily be 7-1 and they should at the very least have a winning record. They blew a 9-point lead with 6 minutes left against the Redskins, Gramatica missed a 43-yard field goal that would have given them the win against Denver, and they absolutely gave away the game against the Vikings. They’re coming off their biggest win of the season (a 37-32 win over the Chargers in London) and a bye week. Reggie Bush is out but none of the players who reportedly tested positive for a banned substance earlier in the year have been lost as of yet. Over the previous 5 seasons the Saints have had the upper hand in this rivalry, sweeping the series 3 times, including each of the last 2 years. They’ve won 7 of 10 against the Falcons and 3 of 5 in Atlanta. I don’t have a good feeling about this game for the Birds, but they are 3-0 so far at home, while the Saints are 0-3 so far on the road, so I’m going to go with my heart and bet on the Miracle Birds to win another one.

Tennessee (-3) @ Chicago
Pick: Titans cover.
Comment: If not for the Kyle Orton injury I would probably be calling for the Bears to win this game. The Titans aren’t going to stay unbeaten forever and the Bears seem as capable a team of beating them as any. Tennessee needed overtime to beat the Packers at home last week and lost ATS for the first time all year. The Bears are another team whose record could easily be drastically different. Honestly, the Bears could be undefeated quite easily. They had a 14 point lead over the Panthers with 5 and a half minutes left in the 3rd and ended up losing by 3 on a late TD; they had a 10 point lead with 3 and a half minutes to play in the 4th quarter against the Bucs and ended up losing in OT by a field goal; and then there was the Falcons’ 11-second miracle at the Dome. So they could easily be up there with the Titans vying for the best record in the League. But they aren’t, and I don’t trust Rex Grossman. I like the Titans to win and it’s a 3-point spread so I’ll just take the winner to cover.

Jacksonville (-6.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Jags win but Lions beat the spread.
Comment: Detroit is 0-8 and they have Dante Culpeper starting at QB this week, but they have beaten the spread in 3 of their last 4 games (with the only exception being an 8 point loss to the Skins when they were 7 point dogs). The Jags are my pick for the most disappointing team this year. They are 3-5 and 2 of their wins have been nail biters (a 2 point win on a last second field goal against the Colts and a 3 point win in OT against the Texans). Since winning in Denver to get to 3-3 in week 6, the Jags have come off their bye week and lost at home to the Browns and at Cincinnati against the previously 0-8 Bengals. They are 2-6 ATS this year, 0-6 ATS as favorites, and just 1-5 straight up when favored! I just can’t pick the Lions to win this game but I’m not picking the Jags to cover. I think Jax will win but by less than a TD.

Seattle (+9.5) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins win but Seahawks beat the spread.
Comment: I have to admit that I just don’t get the Dolphins. They are 4-4 with wins over the Patriots and Broncos on the road and over the Chargers and Bills at home. They are a Matt Schuab 3 yard QB draw for a TD on 4th down with 3 seconds left away from a winning record. The Seahawks are still banged up and they don’t appear to have much left. However, 9.5 is a lot against Miami even if the game is in Florida. I’ll take the Dolphins to win but by less than 10.

Green Bay (+1) @ Minnesota
Pick: Packers pull off the upset.
Comment: The Packers have now won 5 straight in this rivalry and 4 of 5 at the Metrodome. Minnesota is lucky to be 4-4 and could easily by 2-6. The Vikings may lose their run stuffing Williams Boys at some point due to the whole “water pill” thing but they still have them for now. The Packers haven’t run on anybody all season, however, and they have still managed to go 4-4. I think the Packers will win this one and complete a third straight series sweep of the Purple People.

Buffalo (+3.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: I’ve lost faith in the Bills in the wake of their losses in the last two weeks. Looking back at it now, the Bills’ 5-3 record is not all that impressive, considering they beat the Seahawks, the Rams, and the Raiders (by 1 point at home). Their win at Jacksonville isn’t nearly as impressive looking now as it was in week 2. 3 weeks ago they beat San Diego by 9 to go to 5-1 but since then they have lost by 9 in Miami and by 9 at home to the Jets. Meanwhile, I’ve been impressed by the Patriots over the last few weeks. They’ve played pretty well since getting wasted by the Chargers a few weeks ago, going 2-1 and nearly winning in Indy last Sunday night. I think the Pats will win this one by 6 points or so.

St. Louis (+9) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets win but Rams beat the spread.
Comment: Jim Haslett’s magic seems to have worn off but before getting pounded at home against the Cards last week the Rams had covered in 3 consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Jets are a difficult team to trust these days. Clearly their win at Buffalo last week was huge but in the previous 2 games they had lost to Oakland and needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat the Chiefs at home. I have to pick against the Rams winning on the road at this point but I don’t feel comfortable picking the Jets to win by double digits.


Baltimore (-1) @ Houston
Pick: Ravens cover.
Comment: This game was supposed to be played in week 2 but the weather caused it to be postponed until this week. The Texans are 11-3 in their last 14 games at home and 3-1 at Reliant Stadium this year. And they ought to be 4-0 at home but they choked away a seemingly insurmountable lead against the Colts in week 5. The Ravens, rookie coach John Harbaugh, and rookie QB Joe Flacco continue to impress. That one bad loss at Indy appears to be an aberration. Their only other 2 losses are by 3 points in OT at Pittsburgh and by 3 points to the Titans thanks in large part to a highly questionable call. This is a tough call because the Texans have been so good at home. The Ravens had lost 9 of 10 on the road but they’ve won their last 2 road games by double digits and I’ll call for them to win a 3rd straight road game and 4th straight overall this Sunday.

Sunday’s Late Games


Carolina (-9.5) @ Oakland
Pick: Panthers cover.
Comment: Wow. Even the Raiders couldn’t stand MeAngelo. That’s pretty sad. Anyway, the Raiders are 2-6 this year. They’ve been competitive in 4 games and looked completely awful in the other 4 games. After seeing the Falcons blank the Raiders 24-0 in Oakland last week, I’ve got to think that the 6-2 Panthers will be able to win by at least 10 points there coming off their bye week.

Indianapolis (+3) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: This spread is currently off due to the questions about the status of Ben Rothlisberger. It started at -3 for the Steelers and I can only assume that it will either stay the same or shrink if Byron Leftwich is named the starter. It doesn’t matter to me; I’ll take the Steelers to win by more than a field goal either way. I might be a little more apprehensive if I hadn’t just seen the Steelers win with Leftwich against the Redskins in D.C. I think the Steeler defense will hold down the Indy attack and the Pittsburgh running game should have success. I think the Steelers will win convincingly with or without Big Ben.

Kansas City (+16) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Chiefs beat the spread.
Comment: Do you realize that the Chiefs are 4-4 ATS this season? The Chargers, on the other hand, are 3-4-1 ATS. SD is coming off a bye but they’ve lost their last 2 games and 3 of their last 4. They’re 17-2 in their last 19 home games and I think they’ll win easily but I’ll take KC to keep within 2 touchdowns.

Sunday Night’s Game

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Giants pull off the upset.
Comment: Including the playoffs, the Giants are now 12-1 in their last 13 road games and 14-1 in their last 15 away from home. The Eagles are 3-1 at home this season and they’ve won 3 straight overall. New York has won 5 of 6 in this series in the regular season, including 3 straight in Philly, but the Eagles beat the Giants at home in the 2006 playoffs. I’m through betting against the Giants. I see them winning again on Sunday night.

Monday Night’s Game

San Francisco (+9.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover.
Comment: Wow. Nice Monday Night Football matchup. I guess the Cards are interesting since they haven’t hosted a playoff game in around 100 years and offensively they are exciting. And maybe Mike Singletary will beat up one of his players or pull his pants down. The Cards won by 10 in San Fran in week 1 and I think they’ll win by double digits again this week at home.

No comments: