Friday, November 14, 2008

The NFL Blog: Week 11 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (8-5-1); Straight Up (11-3)
Season: Vs. Spread (66-71-7); Straight Up (93-51)

Week 10 Review: After a pair of awful weeks in which I was no doubt negatively affected by the technical difficulties, I had one of my best weeks of the season last week, particularly straight up, as I selected 11 of 14 winners correctly.

Week 11 Preview: I’m looking to stay hot this week as I continue to try and get back to .500 for the season ATS before the end of the year. This is a ridiculously hard week to predict in my opinion. I’ve got no strategy and no real idea, as evidenced by the fact that I’m picking teams to win but not to cover in 7 of 16 games.

Thursday Night’s Game

New York Jets (+3) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: Well, I didn’t get this one in on time so I wouldn’t have given myself credit, but I didn’t pick it correctly anyway. I was going to take the Pats because they had the homefield advantage and since it was a field goal spread I just picked them to cover. As we know, they didn’t.

Sunday’s Early Games

New Orleans (-5) @ Kansas City
Pick: Saints win but Chiefs beat the spread.
Comment: Give Herm and the Chiefs credit, they continue to play to win the game. The problem is, of course, they still aren’t winning the game. They do get Larry Johnson back this week and they are at home. Tyler Thigpen has been better than anyone could have expected after his first few games, and this week he’ll be going up against a Saints team that struggles to defend the pass as usual. Drew Brees will be without Reggie Bush once again this Sunday and his team has yet to win a true road game this year. Arrowhead used to be a tough place to win but it hasn’t been lately, as the Chiefs have lost 8 of their last 9 at home. The Chiefs have covered in each of the last 3 weeks and I think they will again in week 11 but I’ll take the Saints to win their first road game of the year by a field goal.

Oakland (+10) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins win but Raiders beat the spread.
Comment: Al Davis took offensive play calling duties away from Greg Knapp this week. It’s like “Oh, yeah, that should do it, Al. That must have been the problem. You guys should score 30 points a game now.” But at least the Raiders are supposed to have JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden back this week. The Dolphins are a decent team but they only won by 2 points over the Seahawks at home last week and the Raiders are due for a solid showing. I’ll take the Fish to win but not by double digits.

Baltimore (+7) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants win but Ravens beat the spread.
Comment: This is where the Ravens might be hurt by the changes to their schedule that took place due to the bad whether in Houston earlier this week. The Ravens are on a great roll right now but they should be coming off of a bye week. Instead, Baltimore will be playing for the 9th straight week. Now, that could end up being a good thing for the Ravens, as they’ve won 4 straight by double digits since their disappointing week 6 loss at Indy. But that proud defense is full of older players and they’ll be going up against as blue collar an offense as there is in the NFL this week. Obviously rookie QB Joe Flacco will be tested this week. Everyone is viewing this game as a big test for the Ravens but it’s also yet another tough matchup for the defending champion G-Men. So far the Giants have been up to the challenge in 8 of 9 games this year, and I think they’ll get to 9-1 with yet another win this week. But I’ll take the Ravens to stay within 6 points on the road.

Minnesota (+4) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Bucs win but Vikings beat the spread.
Comment: The Bucs are coming off of a bye week but they’ve lost their last 3 games against the spread. Meanwhile, the Vikings come into this game having won 4 of 5, but they are just 1-3 on the road this year, and they’re just 3-6 ATS this season. I think the Bucs will find a way to win this game but I think it’ll be decided by a field goal.

Denver (+6.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons win but Broncos beat the spread.
Comment: As a Falcons fan I’m pretty nervous about this game. So far, the Falcons have not lost a game they were “supposed” to win and they’re supposed to win this one. But the Broncos are absolutely capable of beating the Birds if the Falcons don’t play well. Denver was forced to sign “The Luggage Thief”, Tatum Bell this week, due to their running back corps being ravaged by injuries. Mike Shanahan is finally paying for his arrogance this season, as it turns out that not just any running back can do the job in his system. Denver does have a lot of weapons on offense, however, so Atlanta can’t sleep walk through this game. The good thing is, Denver can’t stop the run, so the Falcons should be in good shape there. I think the Falcons will be okay, but I’m just not confident enough to pick them to cover the spread.

Detroit (+14) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers cover.
Comment: The Lions did not look good with Daunte Culpepper at QB last week. The Lions had been competitive in their 4 games prior to last week’s 38-14 loss at home to the Jags, and I think maybe they’ve finally given up. Everyone except for Rod Marinelli that is. As for the Panthers, they were unimpressive coming off of a bye against the Raiders last week but they’re 5-0 at home this season and I think they’ll win by more than 2 touchdowns this Sunday.

Chicago (+3.5) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers win but Bears beat the spread.
Comment: Kyle Orton may play after all this week after he looked almost certain to miss another game just a few days ago. Whoever thought that so much would depend upon the availability of Kyle Orton? Then again, we are talking about having to start Rex Grossman here. Both teams need this one but I think the Packers need it a little bit more, so I’ll take them to win. I think this one will be decided by a field goal.

Houston (+9) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts cover.
Comment: Is it finally safe to trust the Colts again? They’ve traditionally worked the Texans at home, and while Indy is coming off its biggest win of the season, Houston is coming off of its worst loss. Sage Rosenfels lit up the Colts’ defense back in week 5. Then again, Rosenfels gave that game away to Indy in the end. I’ll trust the Colts to win at home by double digits this week.

Philadelphia (-9.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Eagles cover.
Comment: Because of the rescheduling that took place due to the hurricanes in Texas earlier this year, the Bengals got a much needed bye last week. Now they host the Eagles, who are coming off of a tough loss at home to the Giants. Philly is banged up but most of their key guys should at least be playing this week. I think the Eagles will win it by double digits.

Sunday’s Late Games

St. Louis (+6.5) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners cover.
Comment: Well, I guess the shine is off Jim Haslett. Since winning at Washington and over the Cowboys at home, and then losing by just 7 points at New England, the Rams have lost by a combined score of 81-16 against the Cards and Jets in the last 2 weeks. Now they travel to San Fran to play the Niners, who couldn’t overcome their own ineptitude to beat the Cardinals last Monday night. This one is sort of a “which team do you like the least” for me. Obviously it’s tough to feel confident in the Rams, but how much confidence can you have in SF after they queefed at the end of last week’s game and the game before that they lost by 21 at home to the Seahawks? I’ll take the Niners to win by 7 just because I have to pick somebody and because both Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger are out for St. Louis.

Arizona (-3) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks pull off the upset.
Comment: Arizona is usually garbage on the road but they’re 2-3 away from home this season. Seattle is usually unbeatable at home but they’re 1-3 at Qwest Field this season. The big difference this week is that Matt Hasselbeck should finally be back for the Seahawks. I’ll take Seattle to win this one at the buzzer.

San Diego (+5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: Wow, Pittsburgh’s schedule just doesn’t quit. In the last 3 weeks they’ve lost a hard-hitting battle to the defending Super Bowl champs at home; gotten a huge win at Washington on MNF; and suffered a letdown against the Colts at home. Now they have to play the underachieving but still talented Chargers. The Steelers are a banged up football team but they haven’t lost 2 in a row yet this season. San Diego, on the other hand, has only won back to back games once this year. I’ll take the Steelers to win another hard fought game by a touchdown.

Tennessee (-1) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Titans cover.
Comment: I get the concept that the Titans have to lose sometime but I don’t think this is the week. Jacksonville is 1-3 with an overtime win over the Texans at home this season, and they’re 3-6 ATS this season. The Titans are 4-0 on the road this year and 8-1 ATS. I’ll take the Titans to win a close one on the road.

Sunday Night’s Game

Dallas (-1) @ Washington
Pick: Redskins pull off the upset.
Comment: Dallas better win this game. They have Tony Romo back, Clinton Portis and Santana Moss are banged up for the Skins, and the Cowboys will fall to .500 with a loss. But this is a rivalry game and the Skins are coming off their worst game of the year a few weeks ago. Both teams are coming off of byes and Dallas needs this game more but I think the Skins will get it done. I see Washington winning a low scoring game by couple of points.

Monday Night’s Game

Cleveland (+5) @ Buffalo
Pick: Bills win but Browns beat the spread.
Comment: It’s time to find out who the Bills really are. Are they the team that opened the season 5-1, or the team that has lost 3 straight to division opponents? My guess is they are a little bit of both. Brady Quinn’s debut with Cleveland went just about as good as anyone could have hoped for last week and yet the Browns still lost at home to the Broncos. I think the Bills will win this game but the Browns will make it close.

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