The NFL Blog: Team Previews and Rankings

A Note About Rankings: I rank all 32 teams in the NFL based on overall strength. I don't take into account schedule, homefield advantage, division or anything like that when determining these rankings and they don't reflect how I think teams will finish record wise or playoff wise. I will discuss those things in the outlooks but I don't rank them that way. Basically, I decide if I think one team would beat another in a head to head matchup at a neutral site and then place the team above or below the other team.

A Note About Outlooks: Within the outlooks I refer to YPG (Yards Per Game) and YPP (Yards Per Point). Basically, these are things I look at to see if a team was fortunate or unfortunate, to see if a team was perhaps better or worse than their record, and to see if a team could go up or down this year. When I talk about YPG I am looking to see if a team won or lost more games than it seems like they should have based on the number of yards they gained and allowed. When I talk about YPP I am looking to see if a team scored more or less points than their yards gained said they should have, or to see if they gave up more or less points than their yards allowed said they should have.

Team Outlooks

(1) San Diego: Towards the end of last season I started to get a feeling that 2008 might be the Chargers’ year. But then Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Philip Rivers were all injured during the end of the season. They will all still be trying to come back from those injuries at the start of this season. That made me rethink things and as I started to make my predictions this summer I was thinking that I couldn’t rank SD #1 because of those issues. But then I started to realize that the only teams which I might place above the Chargers are also facing health related questions and other issues. The Patriots have lost all those defensive backs and Brady has been limited due to another foot problem this spring. As for the Colts, Peyton is still recovering from the work he had done on his knee, Marvin Harrison is coming off a serious knee injury, Dwight Freeney is coming off a serious leg injury, and Bob Sanders continues to struggle to stay healthy. Indy, NE, and SD are the top 3 teams by far, in my opinion, and they’re all facing these health questions so they cancel each other out as far as I’m concerned. With that in mind, I have San Diego ranked as my #1 team in the NFL. If Shawn Merriman decides to have major surgery and misses the entire season than I would have to move San Diego down a spot to #2. However, at this point it doesn’t seem like the Chargers feel it is an injury that should cost him the season. If he chooses non-major surgery or something other than the major surgery and can still play most of the year than I would keep SD here at #1. It sounds more like the injury causes him pain as opposed holding him back, meaning he should be able to play, and play at his full ability, so for now I’m keeping SD at #1. Tomlinson is still the best RB in the League when healthy and Rivers took some major steps last season. He also has some decent receivers to throw to now with Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson to go along with the best TE in the game, Antonio Gates. They have a great OL. The defense is extremely talented. All 3 units of the defense—D-Line, LB’s, and secondary—are strong for the Chargers. The Chargers have an excellent special teams unit, solid in all areas. Norv Turner doesn’t knock your socks off as a coach but he led the team to an 11-5 record, an upset win at Indy in the playoffs, and then had his entire team injured against the 17-0 Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Now that the Patriots, Colts, and Steelers have all won a Super Bowl, it seems like it should be San Diego’s turn. However, there are a few worrisome signs besides the health concerns. They were fortunate in a number of areas and when that happens to a team their luck often turns back the other way in the next season. Their Yards Per Game and Yards Per Point numbers last season suggested that they were fortunate to win as many games as they did. They also benefited from good luck with turnovers and during the regular season they had great luck staying healthy. Still, San Diego figures to play one of the easier schedules in the NFL this season. Regardless, I think that overall, the Chargers are the top team in the NFL. I think they’ll win the AFC West and go into the playoffs as the #1 seed. I see them beating Jacksonville in the Divisional Playoffs and then getting revenge against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game to reach the Super Bowl for just the second time in team history. I’m predicting the Chargers will defeat New Orleans in the Super Bowl to win the Championship for the first time in franchise history.

(2) New England: If the Patriots had won the Super Bowl last year I would have them ranked #1. Psyche is just a huge factor in sports, particularly—in my opinion--in a grueling contact sport like football. Last season they were able to focus on trying to go undefeated and they used the Spygate bullshit as motivation. They got all the way to brink of immortality and then had it taken from them. And after all of that work, they ended up with something worse than if they had gone 8-8 and missed the playoffs. What happened to the Patriots? They started the year looking like perhaps the most dominant team of all time and ended the year eking out wins and trying to hold on until they finally couldn’t pull the last game out. What happened? I think one thing that happened in the second half is the weather changed. That may sound stupid to some, but those some don’t know football. Wind, air temp, snow, rain, field conditions; all of these things can make an offense--particularly one driven mainly by a passing game—sputter. They also got every team’s best shot every week and had to deal with a lot of pressure. I think the age of the defense became more of a factor later in the season. Still, they reached the Super Bowl 18-0. As for what happened in the Super Bowl, it’s obvious that the New York defensive line was an incredible force that one of the best offensive lines in football was unable to stop, and at times couldn’t even contain it all. No team had gotten that kind of pressure on the Patriots and it totally changed the game. Another thing that I am convinced of is that Tom Brady was greatly effected by the injury to his foot that he suffered in the AFC Championship Game. He was off in that game against the Chargers and off in the Super Bowl in a way that he has never been before. And he wasn’t just off when under pressure, he was just not throwing well, even when making simple passes or when given plenty of time and throwing to an open receiver. There was something physically wrong with Brady for sure. Still, what will be largely forgotten about the Super Bowl and the Patriot’s loss, is that Brady rallied the team and drove them down for a late TD to put the Pats ahead and in position to win the game. They appeared to have the game won several times as the Giants made their desperation drive. There were possible interceptions dropped, sacks missed by fractions of a second, and one really silly pass completion when the Giants were backed up and Eli was scrambling, that was—weather people want to look at it rationally or not—mostly blind luck. That may be “taking something away from the Giants” but anyone who thinks luck doesn’t play a major part in sports is a chimp. “The Immaculate Reception” is perhaps the most famous play in NFL history, and because the Steelers became a dynasty that victory is sort of grouped in with the rest of the Steelers great achievements. But in reality, the Steelers should have lost, and just completely lucked out. Yes, Franco Harris makes an unbelievably heady play to catch the ball off the deflection and take it to the house, but if the Raiders had gone for the interception or just let the pass be completed and then made the tackle the Steelers would have lost. In the Super Bowl, clearly Eli and David Tyree deserve a ton of credit for making something happen and seizing the moment, that’s why they’ve been touted as heroes. But it was still a lucky ass play and the Patriots should have won the game. That’s what will be forgotten: that regardless of the Giants pass rush or Manning’s success passing the ball, the Patriots had the game won and a number of things went against them to cause them to lose at the last moment. Anyway, it’s going to be tough to put last season behind them. They have to play San Diego and Indy on the road, so it’s unlikely (in my opinion) that they’ll be undefeated after 8 games, but what if they are? Part of me believes that if the Patriots had lost to the Colts or the Eagles or the Ravens or the Giants during the regular season, they would have won the Super Bowl. The offense can’t possibly be as good as it was last year. Defenses seemed to be figuring out ways to slow down the Pats at the end of last year and teams will have had a full off-season to figure out better ways to defend Moss and Welker. Defensively, the line backers are another year older, as is Rodney Harrison, and they lose Junior Seau, Rosevelt Colvin, Randall Gay, Eugene Wilson, and most importantly Asante Samuel. Also, the Patriots have some of the same troubling warning signs that the Chargers have. They increased by 4 wins last year, and usually when a team makes a big increase in wins, they fall off a bit the next year. Their Yards Per Point numbers suggest that they could fall off significantly on offense and defense this season. They also had great fortune with turnovers and health. They had 4 close wins (by 7 points or less) and no close losses in the regular season last year. All those things point to a drop off, but even if the Pats win 5 less games in 2008 they will still be 11-5. And, despite playing a few of the very best teams in the game, the Pats have perhaps the easiest schedule in the NFL. They are still in the threesome with Indy and SD above the rest of the League, and perhaps they will win a 4th championship this year and put last year’s Super Bowl loss behind them, but I rank them #2 going into the season because of that inevitable 18-1 hang over. They’ll win the AFC East again easily and I see them entering the postseason as the #2 seed. I think they’ll beat rival Indy at home in a classic in the Divisional Playoffs, but this time they’ll lose the AFC Championship Game, falling to the Chargers in San Diego.

(3) Indianapolis: As mentioned, the Colts are also facing health questions going into 2008. However, I trust that Manning will be okay and Sanders and Freeney will still be great even if not 100%. And if Marvin Harrison is just 85% of the WR he was before the injury it will still be a lot better than no Marvin at all. They still have a ton of weapons on offense and defense is now a strength for Indy as well. They could definitely improve on special teams. I also feel that while Tony Dungy is very adept at building winning teams and keeping a team together and focused over a long regular season, he is not an asset as an in game coach. The Colts also have some of those same warning signs that the other two top teams have: their YPP numbers suggest that they could allow more points and score less points this year. And they were fortunate in the turnover department. Also the Colts play one of the most difficult schedules in the League this season. But they are still one of the top 3 teams in the game and if things fall into place they could win another championship. I’m calling for them to win the AFC South again and go into the playoffs as the #3 seed. I think they’ll stomp the Jets at home in the Wild Card Playoffs but then come up short on the road against the Pats in the Divisional Playoffs.

(4) Jacksonville: After the top 3 teams I think there is a significant drop, but the Jags are the best of the rest. I think the best 4 teams in the NFL all reside in the AFC. Though the Giants won the Super Bowl last year, the AFC is still clearly the superior conference. Jacksonville isn’t even the toughest team in their own division, as they play in the AFC South along with the Colts. But Jacksonville is a great team that had a breakthrough season in 2007 and comes back in great shape going into 2008. They have good running backs, a good line, and a smart and talented QB who doesn’t make mistakes. Unfortunately they have no receivers but the running game is strong enough to carry the load on offense. Defense is their strength, as they have one of the top defenses in the NFL. They play very good special teams. The Jags improved by 3 wins last season and their YPP totals suggest that they could drop off a little this year. But with a great ground game and a shutdown defense, I’m predicting they will reach the playoffs again as a Wild Card team, entering the postseason as the #5 seed in the AFC. I have them beating Pittsburgh on the road again in the Wild Card Playoffs but I think they’ll fall to the Chargers on the road in the Divisional Playoffs.

(5) Dallas: To no one’s surprise, the Cowboys are the most hyped team going into 2008. They do have a great offense, a strong defense, and a good special teams unit. Wade Phillips hasn’t had much success in the playoffs but he’s done okay as a head coach in the regular season. But if Dallas loses T.O. for any amount of the year it will be a terrific blow, and he has a tendency to get injured. They have a stud TE in Jason Witten but they have zero depth at WR. It will be interesting to see what Pac-Man Jones brings to the team defensively and as a return man. Dallas went 13-3 last season and some of their numbers suggest a drop off. They improved by 4 wins last year which is a lot. Their Offensive YPP suggest the offense wasn’t as good as it seemed (and we sort of found that out at the end of the year) and they had 4 close wins (7 points or less) and only 1 close loss. They also face a tough schedule in 2008. I do not see Dallas winning the division again, but I do see them getting into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. I think they’ll be the #5 seed in the NFC and have to go to Seattle again in the first round of the postseason. I think they’ll fall in the Wild Card Playoffs again on the road to the Seahawks.

(6) Minnesota: The Vikings go into the 2008 season with some expectations following last year’s 8-8 record and nearly making the playoffs. They have a super running back, and a super OL, and they also have one of the best defenses in the League. However, they have nothing at WR and I’m not a fan of QB Tarvaris Jackson. But if Jackson can keep from screwing things up the Vikings should be okay running AP and Chester Taylor behind the best line in football. They shouldn’t need that many points to win games. The defense was already among the game’s best and then they added sack master Jared Allen. I think the Vikings will have their best regular season since 2000 and win the NFC North. I see them entering the postseason as the #2 seed in the NFC but getting upset at home by the Eagles in the Divisional Playoffs. You must have a quarter back in the postseason, and I don’t thin they’ve got one.

(7) Green Bay: This is the part of the rankings where I’m not really confident. I mean, I know that Green Bay has a ton of talent throughout the roster and that they should be good, but what will they be like under Aaron Rogers? He should be helped by the fact that they have a balanced offensive attack and he’s certainly been studying and watching long enough to know what to do with the ball now that he’s got a chance. He looked good in the Cowboys game last year but that was just a little snippet. Despite the unknown, I still like them a lot because they have a strong defense and play good special teams. There are a number of factors that point towards a bit of a step back this season but I tend to go with my gut even in the face of evidence. Their YPP numbers suggest a fall off on offense and defense. They also improved by 5 wins last year and that’s a big swing. In addition, they won 5 games by 7 points or less and only lost 1 such game. Still, I think the Packers will rally around Rogers and maintain something close to the level of play that they had last season. This wasn’t a fluke and it wasn’t just Old Man Favre. This is a good team. However, this is the NFL, and not every good team gets the breaks they need to get in the playoffs. They’ll have a winning record but the tie-breaker numbers won’t come up for them and they’ll miss the playoffs in their first year without Favre.

(8) Philadelphia: For some reason I’m really feeling the Eagles this year. They still don’t have any play makers at receiver but they usually manage to be an explosive offense anyway. If McNabb gets hurt it’s of course all down the drain but I think he’ll finally get through a full season in 2008. And the Eagles have won of the best offensive weapons in the game in Brian Westbrook. The Eagles always have a strong defense and they should again this season led by a very good secondary that now includes Asante Samuel. Last season the Eagles played the toughest schedule in the league and this it is much more reasonable. I think they’ll be the surprise winner of the NFC East and go to the playoffs as the #3 seed in the NFC. I predict they will get by the Bucs at home in the Wild Card Playoffs and then stun the Vikings on the road in the Divisional Playoffs to reach the NFC Championship Game. I see it ending then with a loss to the #1 seed Saints in New Orleans.

(9) New Orleans: The Saints had a disappointing season last year but I’m calling for a rebound season in 2008. The offense should be high powered again, especially with Deuce McAllister back on the field and the edition of TE Jeremy Shockey. Shockey will make Marques Colston even better and I think McAllister will be the key to Reggie Bush having his best season as a pro. The defense is still not great but it should be better. Special teams is a weakness but I do think that the Saints have a solid coach in Sean Payton and a very good quarterback and leader in Drew Brees. Drew Brees is my pick to win the MVP. I’m predicting the Saints will have their best regular season of the millennium and head into the postseason with homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, holding the #1 seed. I think they’ll beat the Seahawks at home in the Divisional Playoffs and then stop the Eagles at the Superdome in the NFC Championship Game to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. However, I predict that they will lose to the Chargers in Super Bowl XLIII.

(10) Seattle: Seattle’s run as a yearly contender may be coming to an end but I think they’ve got at least one more NFC West title in them. Shawn Alexander is gone, Matt Hassleback is aging and has a bad back, but they still have a lot and I think they’ll be good again in Holmgren’s last season. They will have a good offense again and their defense should be excellent. Special teams aren’t so good but Holmgren is a great coach and Hassleback is a good QB and a great leader of the team. Plus, Qwest Field is the biggest homefield advantage in the NFL today. I like them to finish on top in the NFC West as always and go to the playoffs as the #4 seed in the NFC. I think they’ll meet the Cowboys again at home and I predict they will get by them again in the Wild Card Playoffs. However, I see them losing to the Saints in the Divisional Playoffs.

(11) Pittsburgh: Sometimes it’s hard to know how good the Steelers really are because you have a tendency to overrate them because of who they are. This happens with the Ravens a lot and also with the Broncos, but it also happens with the Steelers. I don’t think they are one of the very best in the NFL but they’re still a really good team. They have great skill players on offense but fast Willie Parker is coming off a serious injury and the offensive line is a major question mark now that Alan Faneca has left town. Big Ben got sacked an obscene amount of times last year, and now his All-Pro center is gone. But they’ll still figure out a way to score some points and the defense will be stout again. They also had only 2 wins by 7 points or less last year and 5 losses by 7 or less. However, they will be playing arguably the toughest schedule in the NFL this season, after playing one of the easiest last year. I think they will find a way to win as they usually do and will take the AFC North title and enter the playoffs as the #4 seed in the AFC. But I have them losing at home again to the Jaguars in the Wild Card Playoffs.

(12) Cleveland: It seems weird that the Browns didn’t make the playoffs last year because they were a legitimately good team. They have some of the most talented skill players of any offense in the game. Braylon Edwards has blossomed into a prime time receiver and this year he’s joined by Dante Stallworth. Kellen Winslow is a horrible individual but when healthy he’s a weapon at TE. Jamal Lewis runs behind an excellent offensive line, and as long as Derek Anderson can stay healthy this offense should put up some points. Anderson didn’t play as well down the stretch last season and it will be interesting to see what kind of year he has in his second season as the starter. I don’t think Brady Quinn has what it takes to be a successful QB in the NFL, so if Anderson bombs I think the Browns are screwed. Defense is the weaker part of the Browns game, particularly pass defense, as their DB’s other than Sean Jones are liabilities. The front 7 is okay though and they play good special teams. I don’t think the Browns were a fluke last year but I do see some signs pointing towards a bit of a step back. They improved by 6 wins last year and did that playing against the 2nd easiest schedule in football. This year they have what appears to be a pretty tough schedule. Also, their YPG and YPP numbers hint at a drop off. I think Romeo’s boys will have another competitive season but I don’t see the postseason in their future. I think they’ll finish up at 8-8 which would be just their 3rd non-losing season of the decade.

(13) New York Giants: What a peculiar team the G-Men of this generation is. I have to say that I never thought that team would win jack shit. It seemed there were too many “ME” guys; there was the distraction and the pressure of the Big Apple; there was an overrated and mentally weak QB; there was a joyless and out of touch head coach that the players and the media all hated; and a bunch of guys that like to run their mouth and bitch and pout and right books ripping each other. The first step towards winning Super Bowl XLII came when Uncle Tiki took his smile and good looks to that propaganda machine known as Fox News. He was a diva and undermined the coaching staff. People thought he would be impossible to replace, and I’m not saying he wasn’t a great player, but the Giants had plenty of offensive weapons to help fill the void. Also, I’ve come to believe that it’s easier to replace a starting running back than a starter at a lot of other positions. The Giants had their usual up and down season and managed to get into the playoffs at 10-6. Eli had looked good in his last two regular season games but he still had to prove he could even win a playoff game. Who knew he would lead the team to 3 consecutive road victories over 3 division champions and then lead an upset of an 18-0 Patriots team. Despite all of this, I still don’t think that playoff run means that all of the sudden the Giants are going to be a dominant regular season team and Eli will be one of the top QB’s in the game this year. Trust me, I believe that Eli is a big game quarterback; I just don’t think he’s Peyton and I don’t think the Giants are the Colts. Michael Strahan is gone, Usi is out for the season, and they traded away Jeremy Shockey for nothing. I have questions about their running backs too. Defensively I thought they would still be able to put pressure on the QB even without Strahan because they are loaded at DL, but now that Usi is gone too I think they’re in trouble. They have average LB’s and below average DB’s. They are a mediocre special teams club. They had good luck with injuries last year and they won 5 games by 7 points or less and lost just 1 game by 7 points or less. I think a bit of a drop off is coming but they are still the defending champs. I predict they will have another up and down year and end up 9-7 but they will not win the tie-breakers and will stay home for the playoffs, unable to defend their crown.

(14) Tampa Bay: The Bucs haven’t been able to maintain consistency since Jon Gruden took over in 2002 and led them to their only Super Bowl title. They had losing records in each of the next two seasons, then went 11-5 in 205. They followed that up with a 4-12 season in 2006 and then went 9-7 last year. So, will this be the first time they manage back to back winning seasons under Gruden? I think they have a very good shot. They have a decent offense and a good defense and they play good special teams. Their Defensive YPP from last year suggests that they weren’t quite as good defensively as their points allowed total said they were. They had great luck with turnovers and played an easy schedule. They improved by 5 games last year and they could take a step back in 2008. But they play what looks like another light schedule and I don’t see why they can’t be just about as good as last season. I think they’ll get back to the playoffs by winning the Wild Card and enter the postseason as the #6 seed in the NFC. However, I think they’ll go out in the Wild Card Playoffs again, this time losing at Philly.

(15) New York Jets: I know, I know; romantic pick. But it’s really not that big of a stretch. The Jets were 10-6 in 2006 and last year they played in 10 games decided by 7 points or less and went just 3-7 in those games. They fell off by 6 wins and they are going to rebound this year. They don’t have a very daunting schedule. With Alan Faneca joining the team and playing guard on the same side as the improving D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Thomas Jones should have much more success in his second year in New York. The wide receiving corps are a not deep or great but Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles are very good receivers, they just haven’t had a quarterback in years. Now they have one of the best, who can still throw it, can still lead, and is going to be damned motivated to make something of this year. They should be an okay defensive team and a decent special teams club. I would have called for about a 7 win season with Chad Pennington and with Favre I’m predicting a winning season and the final spot in the playoffs as the #6 seed in the AFC. I think the fairy tale ends there and the Jets will fall in Indy in the Wild Card Playoffs.

(16) Washington: Over the years I have had a tendency to overrate the Redskins. I may be thinking too highly of them here as well, but I just don’t see them being that different under Jim Zorn, as most of the coaches have stayed on. They have a good OL and some decent skill players on offense. If Jason Campbell is able to succeed in Zorn’s system they could be a dangerous offense. Defensively they are okay and might be better than that if Jason Taylor has one more great season left in him and is as motivated as I think he is to make the Tuna look like a moron. They play solid special teams and I think they’ll be a very competitive squad in 2008. I look for them to win as many games as they lose this year.

(17) Arizona: Another team that I always seem to be overly optimistic about. The Cardinals finished 8-8 last season for their first non-losing season of the decade. This year they really need to build on that accomplishment. I think the OL and the defense will be improved in Whisenhunt’s 2nd year and they have great skill players on offense. Once the season begins I believe Anquan Boldin’s situation will go away. It’s not going to go away to the point that he’ll want to stay in Arizona but he’s going to play and play hard. The special teams unit for the Cards has not been good but the main issue for the Cardinals is obviously under center. Kurt Warner has won the job away from Matt Leinart, and while that doesn’t seem like a good sign for their future, I think it’s the best thing for their success this year. If Warner gets hurt or struggles I don’t think Leinart is the worst option. Either way I don’t think it’s that bad of a deal. Arizona jumped up 3 wins last season and they had a very easy schedule but I think they’ll be competitive again. I predict they won’t have a second straight non-losing season but they will avoid losing 10 games for just the 3rd time this decade.

(18) Baltimore: It’s hard to know how good this Baltimore team can be. The defense has a lot of the same old faces but they are older now. However, the Ravens defense is still going to be good so if John Harbaugh can figure out a way to get even a little bit more offensively than offensive “genius” Brian Billeck could, they have a chance to compete. The OL may struggle without Jonathan Ogden, the WR’s are suspect, and most importantly the QB situation may not be settled all year. If Troy Smith plays for the Ravens this year I think they will be a very competitive team. Kyle Boller is worthless and should not be given anymore chances. If you get to a point where you’re 2-7 or something you can start working Joe Flacco in but Smith needs to be given a shot to make the team a winner. The Ravens have what looks like a very tough schedule but there are a number of signs pointing to a bounce back season in 2008. They had an 8 game drop last year and they should rebound. Their YPG numbers and YPP numbers say that they were better than their record suggest last season. In addition, they had horrible luck with injuries and turnovers. I predict the Ravens will regain respectability this season and will finish .500 in 2008.

(19) Carolina: I’ve never been a big believer in Carolina. They’ve actually gone through some changes this off-season, parting ways with DeShaun Foster, Drew Carter, Justin Hartwig, Mike Wahle, Mike Rucker, Kris Jenkins, and Dan Morgan. They drafted Jonathan Stewart, tackle Jeff Otah, and OLB Dan Connor. They signed Muhsin Muhammad, and DJ Hackett. They should have an average offense and a good defense. They face a much easier schedule this year but I really think the key is Jake Delhomme. If he is healthy and if he plays more like he did in the early 2000’s than like he did in the last few years, they could be competitive. Steve Smith is head case and they'll miss him in those 2 games he's suspended, but he's still one of the very best at WR when he plays. I’m predicting a .500 record.

(20) St. Louis: The Rams were one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams last season and Scott Linehan needs his team to rebound if he wants to keep his mob. In fairness, the Rams were crushed by injuries last year. They fell off by 5 wins last season, going just 1-4 in games decided by 7 points or less. Their YPG and YPP numbers from last season suggest they should improve on both sides of the ball and they were a better team than their 3-13 record showed. Marc Bulger and Torry Holt are healthy again, Steven Jackson has finally come to an agreement with management, and even though the Rams no longer have Issac Bruce they should have a good offense in 2008. They play good special teams and there’s a chance they could have a decent defense this year. There are some question marks on this team but I think the breaks will be more in the Rams’ favor this year. I see them rebounding and I’m predicting a surprise winning record but not a postseason birth.

(21) Tennessee: The Titans have managed to go 8-8 and 10-6 in the last two seasons, but I see tougher times ahead in 2008. To me, Vince Young is a below average QB who is able to do some positive things because of his athleticism but will never be a great passer. The Titans offensive skill players are bottom of the barrel types and the OL is not going to be as good this season. They have a very good defense but have a weak special teams unit. Last year they were one of the healthiest teams in the league and they went 6-3 in games decided by 7 points or less. I think they’ve been very fortunate the last two seasons and that this year their luck will desert them. I see a huge drop off coming for the Titans. I’m predicting 5 less wins and a last place finish in the AFC South.

(22) Houston: The Texans completed the best season in their 6 year history in 2007, going 8-8. They’d be much better off if they didn’t play in the tough AFC South but they do and they’ll have one of the 10 hardest schedules again this season. With any luck Matt Schaub will stay healthier this year and Ahman Green and Chris Brown will stay healthy enough to give the Texans a decent running attack. Andre Johnson is a major weapon and they really need him to stay healthy. They have a mediocre offense and when their skill players are injured it’s a serious problem. They have a below average defense but Mario Williams has a chance to be a dominant player at DE and they have a strong special teams unit. The Texans had some bad luck in the turnover department last year or else they may have had a winning record, but I’m predicting a step back this year. I don’t think they will be a really bad team but I think they’ll be very average and with their schedule I see another 10 loss season.

(23) Oakland: I’m sure a lot of people would rank them much lower and I may be crazy but I think they are getting closer to mediocrity. JaMarcus Russell really didn’t play much last season but he is bound to show more in his second year. Rookie RB Darren McFadden could make as big of an impact as Adrian Peterson, and Justin Fargas is a solid RB that can work with D-Mac to for a nice rushing combo. The OL again has some question marks and they are very weak at WR but the offense should be better overall this season and they have a good defense. They had bad luck with injuries last year and went just 2-4 in games decided by 7 points or less. They will be facing a fairly easy schedule this year and I think they will be competitive. However, I think this thing is going to move in baby steps, and so I’m predicting just 2 more wins this year.

(24) Buffalo: I’m not sure how the Bills have managed to go 7-9 in each of their last two seasons. It seems like they should be worse than that. Last year they were 15th in the AFC in total offense and 16th in total defense. Both of their QB’s suck and they are quite thin at OL. Defensively they are unable to stop the pass at all. The Bills did have some tough luck with injuries last season and their schedule isn’t that tough. But I look for a drop back to a season more like you would expect, with double digit defeats.

(25) Chicago: Bears management has totally screwed up a situation that they could have turned into a perennial contender. Instead, I believe the Bears’ days of being one of the better teams in the NFC are now over and that they are really better off trying to rebuild. I know Rex Grossman is an incredibly frustrating player but they are choosing to go with Kyle Orton as the starting quarterback. Isn’t that kind of like choosing to walk out in the rain without an umbrella instead of taking along the one that sometimes leaks? Their starting running back is the wrong Adrian Peterson. They have one of the weaker offensive lines in the game. Their WR’s are awful. They could have the most horrible offense in all of football this season. And at this point their often overrated defense is merely okay. They play good special teams but it’s not really a good thing that their best player is basically just a kick and punt returner. The Bears fell off last season and finished with a losing record and this year I’m predicting a continuation of that decline and double digit losses.

(26) Cincinnati: I actually have an irrational feeling that the Bengals will be a surprise team this year, but I’m going to base my prediction on logic. They have a great QB and great skill players but there are some potentially problematic health issues. The OL is a question mark and they have a poor defense and a bad special teams unit. They are going from one of the easier schedules in the league to one of the hardest. I’m predicting double digit losses and a last place finish in the AFC North.

(27) Denver: Denver was one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL last season. Their 7-9 record was their first losing season since 1999 and they had very tough luck with injuries. They also play an easy schedule this year so I’m tempted to think that they will bounce back but there are simply too many potential problem areas. There are question marks at nearly every single position on both sides of the ball. Denver does not have a very good special teams unit and their QB (Jay Cutler) has yet to prove himself to be the type of player they expected when they drafted him in the first round of the 2006 draft. I think another tough season is coming for the Broncos, and in fact I’m predicting double digit losses in 2008.

(28) Detroit: Remember when Detroit was 6-2 last season and it looked like Jon Kitna was going to backup one of the more memorable preseason predictions? They lost 7 of their last 8 and I’m inclined to think that the Lions are closer to the 1-7 team than the 6-2 one. Obviously they have a great set of receivers but they have a major question mark at RB and Kitna is not really a big plus at QB anyway. They have a very weak defense and play poor special teams. I’m predicting a regression and a return to double digit losses.




(29) San Francisco: The hiring of Mike Martz would seem to ensure a major lift in the offensive production of the 49ers but I don’t think they have the personnel to do it. Their QB’s are perhaps the worst in the NFL, the OL is a major question mark, and they aren’t loaded with talented receivers. Also, I expect Martz will actually make the Niners’ best player—RB Frank Gore—less of a force. On defense, SF’s front 7 is good but their DB’s are bad. I think the Niners will struggle mightily again, and I’m predicting 11 losses again in 2008.


(30) Miami: I get that Bill Parcels has a reputation for taking over struggling franchises and quickly building them into winning teams, but he’s only the GM of the Dolphins, not the head coach, and they won 1 game last season. I think the signing of Chad Pennington was a great move for them, and they have a good OL, but they have a shortage of great skill players on offense. The defense is below average, particularly now that Jason Taylor is gone. The Dolphins fell off by 5 wins last season and surely they’ll improve on their total of 1 victory. They had better YPG numbers than you would have thought for a 1 win team and they went just 1-6 in games decided by 7 points or less. They had more injuries than almost any team in the NFL last year and they played one of the hardest schedules in the league. So a lot of things point to a better season for the Dolphins and I’m predicting that they will improve next year. But they will still end the season with the worst record in the NFL.

(31) Kansas City: The Chiefs are in complete rebuilding mode and should struggle mightily again this season. They face serious question marks at QB and the lack of depth among the receiving corps is also a point of concern. Larry Johnson missed half of last season due to injury and even if he is able to remain healthy this year he may not be the back that he was a few years ago. Even if he is, the KC offensive line is awful and defenses are going to stack the line against the run because they don’t fear the KC passing game. The Chiefs defense is mediocre and their special teams unit is poor. I’m also not at all a Herman Edwards fan. They fell off by 5 wins last season and they should be able to improve at least some this year. They have one of the easier schedules this year but I’m predicting only a slight improvement and another year of double digit losses.

(32) Atlanta: I normally try to be as objective as possible when making predictions because it really does no good to skew your predictions by going with your heart. But last year I couldn’t help my self and I picked the Falcons to go 9-7 and make the playoffs as a wild card team. I also predicted that Bobby Petrino would be named Coach of the Year, and that Joey Harrington would be named Comeback Player of the Year. This year I am not projecting such lofty achievements but it isn’t really a backlash from last year. I still think that my prediction of 9 wins for the Falcons last season was not that ridiculous. Vegas had the Falcons over/under win total at 7.5 going into the season. And when I looked at the schedule I saw a decent number of winnable games. This year I actually think the Falcons’ schedule is a good deal easier but I think the Falcons are the worst team in the NFL. It’s okay, they’re rebuilding and you have to start somewhere. The Falcons are starting almost from scratch. They have a new head coach, a new defensive coordinator, and a new offensive coordinator. They will be starting a rookie quarterback behind a line that enters the season as a bit of a question mark. The Falcons rush defense is atrocious and their pass defense is very poor. Right now the special teams unit looks like the strongest. While things look bleak, the Falcons’ YPP numbers from last season suggest that the Falcons will improve on both sides of the ball this year. I think they will win 1 additional game this season and go 5-11.