/>It's Almost Football Time...Finally!Well with the Braves waving the white flag and Tiger nowhere to be found at the Open Championship or the PGA Championship I haven't been inspired much lately. I resisted the urge to talk about "The Favre Show" and really wasn't up to dealing with Skip Carey's sudden death. For you Braves people in town, there's a memorial service at Turner Field for Carey on Tuesday morning at 10:00 that should be pretty special. Anyway, thank God football's almost here. No, seriously, thank God for me if you talk to her. I'll be putting something new up at least once a day for the next few weeks. The season begins before the end of the month!
THE POWER 15
Alright let me explain how this works first. The following list is not where I think teams will finish in the final polls or in the BCS or anything like that. The Power 15 is solely based on how strong I think each team is heading into the season and doesn't take into account schedule or anything like that. The way I get the list is by matching teams up and deciding who I would favor in a head to head matchup on a neutral field. Basically, I would not favor my number 15 team in a matchup against teams 1-14, but I would favor them against the other 105 teams not listed. I would favor my number 1 team against any other team, I would favor my number 2 team against every team other than the number 1 team, and so on. Oh, and it's in reverse order, only because that's the way I always like to look at ranked lists; from the back to the front like a countdown.
#15 Texas Tech
I know it's hard to take Texas Tech seriously because they're an all offense/no defense team and their head coach doesn't believe in punting if it's 4th and less than 10. But they actually got better defensively towards the end of last year and should be decent this season. And they may only need to be decent defensively because they'll be dominant offensively with an excellent line, the best wide receiver in all of college football, and a senior quarterback that threw for 5,000 yards last year with a completion percentage of 71.8% and a 48-14 TD-INT ratio. They return 18 starters from last season's 9-4 team and I believe this year's team could be their best yet under Mike Leach.
#14 South Carolina
Last year it looked like Spurrier finally had a team that could compete seriously for the top spot in the SEC East when they started 6-1, beating Georgia on the road, and with their only loss coming to then #2 LSU on the road. Then they lost at home to Vandy and that sent them on a tank job that never ended, as they lost their final 5 games to finish 6-6 and stayed home during bowl season. Certainly it was a crushing setback but they had horrible luck with injuries and lost by 3 in OT at Tennessee and by 2 to Clemson on a last second field goal. They get 17 starters back from that team that showed such promise early. The defense should be very tough this year. They lost their stud MLB for the year after only 4 games last year and without him their defense fell apart. They still have that one major question mark at quarterback and that's obviously not a good place to have a question mark.
#13 Penn State
Penn State loses their award winning linebacker Dan Connor and they lost another great linebacker to a knee injury this spring but they should still have one of the best defenses and special teams units in the country. Anthony Morelli never panned out as a great quarterback but he is gone now and the Lions are going back to the spread offense that they used back in 2005 when they went 11-1.
#12 Tennessee
The Vols went 6-2 in the SEC last year but could easily have been 3-5, as they lucked out to beat South Carolina in OT, beat Kentucky in 4 overtimes, and won by a point over Vandy when the bumbling Dors had a last second field goal hit off the upright. This season they lose their long time QB Eric Ainge but they still have a super line, a stud running back, and great receivers. The defense should be better and they will have their usual strong special teams.
#11 LSU
The Bengals only get 12 starters back from the national championship squad but they should be very good again. To be sure, the Tigers have heavy losses, with Glenn Dorsey gone, their go to guy in the back field (Jacob Hester) gone, much of their excellent secondary gone, and their defensive coordinator is now the head coach at Nebraska. In addition, they ended up losing both QB's, as Matt Flynn graduated and Perrilloux got the boot this spring. Still, they have an excellent line and a stable of running backs to rely on. Plus, while it hurts to lose 7 guys to the draft, they've gotten to the point where they can just reload. Hell, they lost 4 1st rounders in the 07 draft and then won the national championship.
#10 South Florida
USF probably should never have been ranked #2 last season after they upset Auburn and WV and started 6-0, as their subsequent 3 game losing streak showed. But they were sort of dismissed after that and they should not be considered a fluke. These guys are for real and so is their coach. They've made 3 straight bowls and have won 9 games in each of the last 2 seasons. They bring back 17 starters, including 10 on offense, and will be very strong on both sides of the ball. I think this could be the best USF team yet.
#9 Clemson
We all know Clemson's game: whenever it looks like Tommy "Sonny" Bowden is gone they get it together and raise expectations, and then just when it looks like the are set to break through they queef one out. It happens over and over and it may happen again this year. But it shouldn't. They're loaded on both sides and have great special teams, and this year they have experience, with 16 starters coming back. They have a senior QB who is among the best in the country, they have the best running back in the ACC, and their defense should be among the best in the nation.
#8 Missouri
Mizzou's 12-2 season last year was stunning and damned impressive, as their only losses came to Oklahoma on the road and again in the Big 12 Championship Game. They may not have had the toughest schedule otherwise, but one thing they did do was throttle their opponents. They blew out teams throughout the season, outscoring opponents 335-181. Light schedule or no, they out gained opponents by 135 yards a game in conference play and that's dominance. 14 starters return from last season, including their season QB who is among the best in the country. They lose a number of their great skill position players from last year on offense but they have plenty of talent left. They will again be one of the best defensive teams and they have strong special teams. They have some big shoes to fill on the offensive line, with a couple of top notch OL from last year's squad now gone. This worries me because I'm convinced that offensive line is the most important spot on the field other than QB in college football, but none of the "experts" seem to think O-Line will be a problem for Mizzou even with those losses.
#7 Auburn
Everyone knows how important the QB is in football and this is particularly so in college football in my opinion. As I mentioned in the Missouri blurb, I'm a big believer in the theory that O-Line is the next most important position in the college game. I think last year's Auburn squad is a good example of how important the QB/OL factor can be. They had a very experienced but nonathletic and (in my opinion) mediocre QB in Brandon Cox and 3 of their 5 starters on offensive line were true freshmen. As a result they struggled early on before getting better as the season went on but Cox got banged up along the way and they ended up going 9-4 after going a combined 33-5 from 2004-2006. This year the line won't be a problem and the Tigers have no weaknesses on offense, defense, or special teams and have 16 returning starters. Also, Auburn will now be running their new spread offense, and they have the perfect QB (Burns) to run it, not to mention a stable of talented running backs. Auburn's new offensive coordinator had been the OC at Troy the last two years, and if you saw Troy last season you understand that their offense was ridiculously hard to contain. Now he has SEC talent to use in that system.
#6 West Virginia
I realize that losing "Coach Rod" was a devastating blow to the Mountaineer program and that the promotion of Bill Stewart to permanent head coach is very questionable. I think WV's run as Big East powerhouse and annual national contender will come to end but I don't think it will be immediate. We've seen before where a program has been able to maintain something close to the same level of success for a year or two following the departure of a head coach and I think that can happen here. The way I see it, a college head coach can have a major effect on a team in 4 main ways: recruiting; scheme/game plan/program identity/style; overseeing of the team on and off the field and serving as a motivator; and in game strategy, adjustment, and management. I only see one of these things effecting WV in 2008. They will miss Rodriguez greatly as a recruiter and eventually that will be the downfall but it won't effect this year. They are going to make some changes to their game plan and style but it will be similar and Stewart and the players know the system well. As far as overseeing the team, if Stewart is lacking in this area it will take time for the cracks to show. If motivation is a problem they didn't show it in the Fiesta Bowl, and they have had what seemed to be clear lapses in focus over the years with Rodriguez anyway. The only issue I see being a potential problem in 2008 would be game management and adjustments and things like that but as we've seen before, talent can cover a lot of that up. And WV still has a lot of talent. Nevermind the loss of Steve Slaton. He was mentally weak and always seemed to be "injured" during the biggest games. With Noel Devine in the backfield and a stellar offensive line Slaton will not be missed. And with Pat White back for his senior season they will again be very hard to stop. Defensively they will likely drop off a bit but the offense and excellent special teams will help cover those deficiances up. They return only 12 starters but 8 come back on offense and again that is the key because if they don't turn the ball over they are just about impossible to stop.
#5 USC
The Trojans return only 11 starters this season, just 4 on offense, and lose 26 lettermen off last year's team that was suppossed to win the National Championship. But after going 70-8 over the last 6 years with at least 11 wins and no more than 2 losses in each year, you feel safe assuming that the guys they have starting and playing more this year will be pretty good too. Defensively they may not be quite as good as last year but they'll still be one of the best defenses in the country. Special teams will be a strength of course and they're loaded with talent at the skill positions as you would expect. The only thing to worry about is quarterback. USC was really a different team when Josh Booty was injured last season and you have to wonder if Mark Sanchez is going to blossom this year or not. Even if he doesn't, they can still out talent almost every other team at every other position.
#4 Ohio State
Yes, regretably it's true: their one of the best teams in the country again. Basically the whole friggin team comes back from last season. 19 of the 22 starters and 53 of the 65 lettermen from last years squad will be back this year. They have a senior quarterback who is not a star but is effective and they have the top freshman QB who will be used as a running option to make them even more dangerous offensively. They have one of the best running backs in the country running behind perhaps the best line in the country. Defensively they will be stellar, with the best linebackers in college football and an excellent secondary. They're top notch on special teams as usual. They have no weaknesses.
#3 Oklahoma
They're loaded as usual. Offensively they have no weaknesses, with good recievers, great backs, a super quarterback, and the best offensive line in football. They are solid in the special teams department. On defense they won't be as strong in the linebacking corps and they lose a ton in the secondary, though they are suppossed to have defensive back reinforcements. Still, young secondaries can be a problem is we know, but they have a stellar D-Line to help them out. I think the Sooners could be the toughest team in the country. Offensively they will be tough to contain. Sam Bradford threw 36 TD with only 8 INT and completed 70% of his passes as a freshman. Bradford will be protected well and will have all sorts of weapons at his disposal. They'll be tough to beat.
#2 Georgia
The Dawgs return 17 starters from a team that finished last season looking like as good a team as there was in the country. Georgia is without weakness defensively and could have the top defense in the nation, with a super defensive line, the entire linebacking group returning, and one of the best secondaries in the country. What makes the Bulldawgs special on offense is their running back Knowshon Moreno who was magnificent as a freshman last season. The Dawgs have a capable group of recievers and junior quarterback Matt Stafford has gone 17-4 as a starter over his first two seasons. Depth and experience at offensive line have been continuous problems for for Georgia over the years. This year offensive line is again the thing to worry about but the young linemen got on the job training last season and so while perhaps still young physically they are not quite so young mentally in terms of experience. This should allow Georgia to open things up offensively and Stafford could potentially blossom in 2008. But the nuts and bolts will be the running game with Moreno and others and the shutdown defense.
#1 Florida
As much as I'd like to be able to put the Dawgs here ahead of the Gaytors as the best team, I just can't convince myself. The loss of their stud tight end is a start and makes me feel better but I still have to put them at #1. Florida went 9-4 last season with a 3 point loss to Auburn, a 4 point loss at LSU the next week, and a loss to the Dawgs in Jacksonville when Heisman winner Tim Tebow was limited by injuries. Last year's Florida team was one of the most inexperienced in the country, with close to half of the team's starts being made by underclassmen. They had only 2 starters returning on defense and at times they had a lot of trouble stopping people. Unfortunately for Dawg fans and Gator Haters in general, inexperience will not be an issue this season. They return 16 starters and 52 of 63 lettermen. For the Gators, it all starts with Tebow, the greatest offensive weapon in the game. He has an excellent line working for him and a plethora of talented recievers, including the dangerous Percy Harvin. Running back was not a position of strength for the Gators last season but they will be vastly improved in that department this year, making their offense even harder to stop.
Last year Florida came into the year with heavy losses on defense, losing 4 defensive linemen to the draft, having to replace all 3 starters at linebacker, and 3 of 4 in the secondary. As always, they had plenty of talent up front and at LB and now experience will not be a problem. If inexperience on offense is most difficult to deal with at OL and QB, inexperience on defense is hardest to deal with in the secondary. Anyone who watched Florida last year knows that their greatest weakness was defending the pass. Michigan lit up Florida's defense in the bowl game, scoring 41 points to pull off the upset. For those rooting against the Gators this season they will have to hope that pass coverage continues to be a problem this year. If they improve greatly in that area, they will be extremely tough to beat. They are very strong on special teams and if they shore up their pass defense they will be among the top defensive squads in the country. This team is loaded with talent all over and with the inexperience gone this team will be scary.
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